Decisions facing Carlyle in the Leafs bottom six

Decisions facing Carlyle in the Leafs bottom six

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What a much more enjoyable month of hockey that was from the Maple Leafs, the latter half in particular. Toronto has seven regulation wins in their last 10 games, and are 9-1-1 in their last 11, after just seven regulation wins total between October 29 and January 14. The Leafs seem to be playing closer to the potential their talent level would suggest after a couple of bleak months culminating in a brief stint spent on the outside looking in at a playoff spot.

Saturday’s win was the first game of the season in which the Leafs out shot an opponent by 10 or more. It also represented a rare occasion in which the Leafs won with a save percentage below .900, as Jonathan Bernier stopped 88.5% of 26 shots (lol Senators).

They’re still far from the finish line, however, and the goal has to be improvement down the stretch and into the playoffs. There’s also merit to the adage (which I’m making up a variation to right now), “you’re not as good as you think when you’re winning a lot, and you’re not as bad as you think when you’re losing a lot.” We know why the Leafs are winning games right now, and it’s the scorching hot play of their top six, set for the foreseeable future as JvR – Bozak – Kessel/Lupul – Kadri – Kulemin. So, let’s take a look at the bottom six.

Looking just at the short term – the very immediate future – it would be helpful if Peter Holland’s lace bite injury healed up quickly. Bolland, Smith, and Holland all being out limits the options for the bottom six, and Ashton being out doesn’t help, either. Jerred Smithson was recalled this morning, with Greg McKegg returned to the Marlies. A two-line team works when the two lines are blazing hot, which they are and it’s been awesome, but the Leafs will need some depth contributions at some point.

Time On Ice Among Forwards

Let’s take a step back from the minutiae of the current injury situation among the lower roster for a minute.

While looking into the time on ice numbers for the Leafs forwards relative to the League, it’s notable that the Leafs have three forwards with 20 or more minutes of ice time – their top line of James van Riemsdyk, Phil Kessel, and Tyler Bozak. There is only one other team in the League with three forwards with 20 or more minutes of ice time, which is the Vancouver Canucks with Ryan Kesler and the Sedins. These six players comprise six of the top 25 in the League in time on ice per game among forwards.

My concern is less to do with Kessel’s line playing a few seconds extra every night. The more apprehensive among us might express concern about the extra few shifts a night possibly wearing this line out down the stretch, given two-thirds of it will be at the Olympics and it plays about 2 minutes more per game than, say, the Senators top line from Saturday night. But this Leafs top line is in the class of Getzlaf and Perry’s line and Crosby and Kunitz’s, all four of whom play pretty much the same kind of minutes (within a few seconds, anyway) as the members of the Leafs’ top line.

Moving down the roster, we see the likes of Lupul, Kadri and Raymond in the 17 and a half to 18 minute range, and the Leafs with more regular forwards north of the 16 minute mark than usual. What about Kadri, for instance, playing his first full 82-game season in the NHL and starting to push toward the 18 minute mark of late?

As far as game situations, could this tie into why the Leafs struggle to close out periods and games? It’s been better lately, but it’s unquestionably been a serious issue over the course of the season. The Leafs have conceded more third period goals than any other team in the League (64). There has been much talk about the Leafs’ passivity to their systems, and yet an insistence from the coaching staff in their interviews that nothing changes in terms of the directions from behind the bench. Could the team be tiring late in periods and late in games?

Putting aside the fatigue question for a second, there needs to be some flexibility in the minutes depending on the temperature of the game. Every team will have periods, if not full games, where their skilled group is just not getting it done. We saw this happen over some extended stretches in November and December. Hopefully we won’t see dips in production to the same extent from all of JvR, Kessel, Kadri and Lupul (they seemed to arrive at the same time when the Leafs were really struggling), but there will be games where this is going to be the case down the stretch. Carlyle needs effective energy lines that can grab some momentum, spend some time in the right end of the rink, and occasionally grind out a goal when highlight reel goals from the top 6 aren’t in the offing. Bolland returning to line three could be a boon for the depth of this team, especially if Clarkson plays better next to him, and even Holland next to Bodie and Raymond looked to be a decent interim solution on line three.

This has been a long winded way of arriving at a seemingly obvious point. The fourth line can also be a part of this. We all know why the Leafs’ time on ice is allocated the way it is: Randy Carlyle barely uses his fourth line. This is made all the more obvious when we look at time-on-ice data across the league.

Fourth Line Usage

Here’s a chart on the quantity of players, with a minimum of 10 games played, averaging less than 7 minutes on each team.

Quantity of Players with >10GP who average less than 7 minutes per game

Teamsless than 7 TOI/g
ANA0
BOS0
BUF1
CGY3
CAR1
CHI0
COL2
CLB0
DAL0
DET1
EDM1
FLA1
LA0
MIN1
MTL1
NAS0
NJ1
NYI1
NYR0
OTT1
PHI1
PHX1
PIT0
SJ0
STL0
TBL1
TOR3
VAN2
WSH0
WPG2

Let’s pare that down to 6 minutes, again with a minimum of ten games played.

Quantity of Players with >10GP who average less than 6 minutes per game

Teamsless than 6
ANA0
BOS0
BUF0
CGY1
CAR0
CHI0
COL1
CLB0
DAL0
DET0
EDM0
FLA0
LA0
MIN0
MTL1
NAS0
NJ1
NYI0
NYR0
OTT1
PHI1
PHX1
PIT0
SJ0
STL0
TBL0
TOR2
VAN0
WSH0
WPG1

Now, let’s look at a minimum of 20 games played for players under 7 minutes.

Quantity of Players with >20GP who average less than 7 minutes per game

TeamLess than 7
ANA0
BOS0
BUF1
CGY1
CAR0
CHI0
COL1
CLB0
DAL0
DET0
EDM1
FLA1
LA0
MIN0
MTL1
NAS0
NJ1
NYI0
NYR0
OTT1
PHI1
PHX1
PIT0
SJ0
STL0
TBL0
TOR3
VAN1
WSH0
WPG1

17 out of 30 teams do not have a player who has appeared in more than 20 games and averaged less than 7 minutes of ice. 12 teams have one player who has appeared in more than 20 games and averaged less than 7 minutes of ice. There are zero teams with exactly two players that match this description. The Leafs have three.

Let’s contrast the records of the teams who roll their lines more with those who do it less:

Records of teams with no players below 7 minutes per game (min 10GP)

TeamWLOTL/SOL
Pts Percentage0.663
ANA40125
BOS35163
CHI331014
CLB28234
DAL25219
LA30216
NAS25239
NYR30233
PIT38152
SJ35156
STL37125
WSH25229
Total38121375

Records of teams with one or more players below 7 minutes per game (min. 10GP)

TeamWLOTL/SOL
Pts Percentage0.561
BUF15318
CGY21277
CAR25209
COL35145
DET241912
EDM18336
FLA21277
MIN29217
MTL29216
NJ232112
NYI21288
OTT242110
PHI27236
PHX261910
TBL32185
TOR30216
VAN27209
WPG27255
Total454409138

Interesting note: The Penguins, even with Crosby playing 21+ minutes, Kunitz close to 20 and Malkin on the second line, do not have a single player below 10 minutes in average TOI.

This isn’t all that revelatory. The suggestion here is not that the magic solution in Calgary is to simply roll their lines more. Obviously, the coaches who do roll four lines do it because they have to depth to pull it off. And that’s the thing – the Leafs have the depth to pull it off.

When a few bodies return to the lineup, this team has the pieces in Trevor Smith, Carter Ashton, Jay McClement, Troy Bodie and Jerry D’Amigo to piece together a solid fourth line that can play a healthy amount of minutes, provide energy on the forecheck, keep the pace up (as Carlyle puts it, “the feet moving”), and chip in the odd goal. Having Colton Orr around, but not always in the lineup, could have its benefits in certain situations. I didn’t view the Orr situation in high dudgeon as some did dating back to early last season, but the issue is that so few players seem to engage Orr this year; that, or he is content serving an energy role for the team with the encouragement of the coaching staff. In terms of energy over enforcement, though, there are far better options.

The coaching staff obviously feels differently about Orr’s game, and a big part of that could be the view that Orr’s presence provides a deterrent. That could be true; we’re not privy to the chirping between the benches and on the ice, or how the Leaf players themselves might feel about Orr’s presence, I don’t know, fortifying the backbone to their group.

Of course, this isn’t a new argument whatsoever about the 4th line usage, and the Leaf coaching staff seem entrenched in their policy of “one enforcer always, and sometimes two.” But this discussion will resurface yet again when it’s decision time in regards to the bottom six, with Clarkson, Smith and Bolland all set to return soon. Some tough decisions will be need to made in terms of who to demote and, potentially, who to waive.

It may be a pipe dream at this point, but a four-line approach with the newfound depth of options could give the Leafs an additional edge as they look to play their best hockey down the stretch and into the playoffs.

615 comments
Jay31
Jay31

Lmao


Andrew Berkshire @AndrewBerkshire

Bergevin's additions as GM: Four 4th liners, 2 depth scorers, Three 7th defensemen, That's... brutal

Reversethecurse13
Reversethecurse13

So Sweden decided that Tallinder (Buf), Oduya (Chi), Ericsson (Det), and Edler (Van)

were all more important to the Olympic team than Victor Hedman, who is second in points for Swede D behind only Erik Karlsson (Ott), and ahead of Kronwall (who made it) and Ekman-Larsson (also made it).
Hedman plays most on TB in every situation, and is +8. Edler is -15 with 4g and 9a in 37 games, while Tallinder plays fourth most out of all defenseman on fucking Barfallo and has 2g and 4a in 41 games and is -16.
Compare to Hedman's 11g 25a in 48 games.


Then again, doesn't look like Canada plans on playing much defense either. Most of Canada's D are offensive skating puck-moving-defensemen, except for Weber (who is team worst -8)..and Vlasic, who i have never seen play, but plays the most out of the D in SJ (with Justin Braun??).

Canada's Left is: Keith, Bouwmeester, Vlasic, Hamhuis......Canada's Right is: Weber, Pietrangelo, Doughty, Subban

If i could only have one of these players to play with Gunnarsson instead of Phaneuf, i would only take Weber and Pietrangelo.

HeatherRickAkin
HeatherRickAkin

Lots of information in Alec's report , and of course because none of us out here are Randy Carlyle, Alec is preaching to the converted . There was no mention of Fraser McLaren ...is he hurt , or gone ? To me, he and Orr are interchangeable, so one or the other should be expendable . Maybe Bodie cant throw the mitts as well as the Bash Brothers, but he has more game. Not saying Troy is part of the long term solution , I see him as an AHLer /call up guy . On the other hand, what in hell does this organization see in Jerrod Smithson, who literally stinks the joint out every shift he plays, and I read on here from someone, his work as a Marlie is totally underwhelming.  Anyway, I see where the Marlies got smoked 6-0 by Texas a few days ago, hence the headline "Smithson leads Marlies to 6-0 Beating, gets call up from Leafs " . 

peterbleafs
peterbleafs

NYI have 2 of the top 10 scorers in the NHL and are still competing for last overall.  Brutal.

Bruffins
Bruffins

Love Rielly's interview. So happy we have this kid for the future

unclejakescards
unclejakescards

best line from last nite ...

.

During halftime, if you order a Papa John's pizza and use the promo code, PEYTON, your pizza will be intercepted and eaten during delivery.

wendelsfist
wendelsfist

@Jay31  


Bergevin:  Prust, Parros, Armstrong, Weisse,   Bourqe/Briere  Boullon/Murray/Drewiske

Nonis: Bernier, Clarkson, Bolland, Raymond, Bodie, Holland, Mclaren, Gleason, Ranger

Jay31
Jay31

@Reversethecurse13  Yeah, Hedman was one of the bigger snubs for sure. I think I read that they picked Tallinder as a vet presence type guy, but a bunch of the other guys are also vets from 2006 when they won gold, so.. that's dumb.


Not really worried about Canada's D. Canada's gonna be playing in the other's team end so much they're not going to be spending much time defending anyway.

GreekGod
GreekGod

@HeatherRickAkin  

Would rather have Kegger in the AHL playing top minutes then in the NHL right now playing 3 minutes. As much as I don't like Smithson on this team, would rather give him the 3 minutes...

MaxwellHowe
MaxwellHowe

@peterbleafs Hear that expression that you build a team from the goalie out?  Yes?  Well Garth Snow didn't

Marlies Man
Marlies Man

"You don’t hear loud criticisms of the Boston deal any more. Me? I feel like either I misread the situation by suggesting a trade would ultimately happen, or that I misread the ability of the situation to change so drastically."

Bruffins
Bruffins

@4evrblue  

then we would only have enough players for the first period

wendelsfist
wendelsfist

@4evrblue  I feel like the Leafs could ice a team of 18 Kessels and Phaneufs and some fans would critize them

MaxwellHowe
MaxwellHowe

@rustynail Awesome.  Kerry Fraser smacking down the whiney Habs fans.  Too sweet.  Bascially, he concludes that Gallagher embellished and whined, so the ref ignored him - and whatever the Jets chose to do to him.

Reversethecurse13
Reversethecurse13

@Jay31 @Reversethecurse13  Yep, i sorta said tongue in cheek that they don't care about playing D. 

I think our very own Morgan Rielly has a good chance of one day playing on the Olympic squad.

MaxwellHowe
MaxwellHowe

@rustynail @peterbleafs Truth is, any half-assed hockey mind could take the pieces they have available and build a good team.  Aside from Tavares, Okposo, MacDonald, some great youngplayers like Strome and Reinhart

GreekGod
GreekGod

@leafdreamer @Marlies Man  

Really? Cause Clarkson has performed pretty well over the past few years... where as Kulemin has been on the decline - Regardless of where these players are from. And I'm not talking about points. Kulemin is finding his game again which is great to see... Clarkson just needs more time and better line mates in order to find his.

wendelsfist
wendelsfist

@The Truth Hurts  Reimer getting run by Gionta was another great moment while the leafs just stand around expecting the refs to take care of things