Toronto Maple Leafs: Buy Low, Sell High

Toronto Maple Leafs: Buy Low, Sell High

2288
Joffrey Lupul

When Brendan Shanahan came aboard, I made a quick passing comment about understanding selling low and selling high with the Toronto Maple Leafs players and cashing in on inflated value when the opportunity presents itself. The Leafs have made a habit of overpaying their own players after career years—for big money—then trading them for absolutely nothing once their play comes back down. That is a trend that obviously needs to stop. So, in saying that, who are the Leafs “sell low” and “sell high” candidates, and what should they be planning to do with these players heading into what should be an extremely busy summer?

Phil Kessel

Quick Thoughts

He’s the Leafs best player and a consistently elite scorer. Kessel’s turning 27 this year so he has a lot of great hockey ahead of him still even if he does slow down a little bit. Ironically, his off-putting personality seems to make him a great fit for this crazy market because he truly seems to not care at all about the mainstream media nor does he let it get to him; kudos to him though because he took responsibility in front of the microphones the last two years after collapses even though neither collapse was truly his fault. If the organization could ever bring in a player that makes Kessel the second best player on the team, the Leafs would vault up a huge notch in the standings.

Selling low or high?
Selling low. Kessel just hit a career high in goals and had another excellent season, he’s not old and he’s locked into a reasonable long-term deal, so why would it be selling low? Because if the Leafs trade Kessel they aren’t going to get an equally elite center or defenseman in return. There isn’t a Kopitar coming back, or a Weber, or whoever else. They would probably get a package of (young) players in return and take a big step back in the immediate future as a franchise, and the young guys they would be getting back we could only hope would be as good as Kessel three-five years down the road. Trading him for a different winger would make pretty well no sense whatsoever. So, really, the market dictates here that it’s a sell-low because it wouldn’t be worth it to trade Kessel.

Verdict
Kessel is going into his sixth year with the Leafs and we’re still sitting around asking ourselves the same thing; are they going to get this guy a true top center? It doesn’t even need to be a horse that gets 70+ points per season. It does, however, need to be a guy that can go up against the Bergeron’s, Giroux’s and Crosby’s of the East and come out ahead. The top line is spinning its wheels every year giving up nearly as many goals as they score. They won’t win consistently with that being the case.

James van Riemsdyk

Quick Thoughts
He had a breakout season this year hitting 30 goals for the first time but you still feel like he has another level to go. All signs indicate that he was playing through a hand injury after the Olympics so that probably hurt his numbers down the stretch too. His biggest problem is puck battles and getting it out of his zone from his side of the ice, but otherwise, he’s everything you want in a winger- big, fast, good shot, goes to the net hard, plays PK, and will finish checks and get dirty. I would be curious to see him without Phil out of curiosity more than anything.

Selling low or high?
Selling high. JVR just hit the 30 goal mark for the first time in his career, is on a great deal, has size, plays on both sides of the puck, and arguably has not even reached his pinnacle. Some are already saying this guy could be the next captain down the road (whenever that will be). They wouldn’t be selling him at his absolute pinnacle (that could be next year), but this would be a pretty high sell this summer.

Verdict
JVR is a very good player, but when you tack on how great his contract his long-term contract is that makes him nearly untouchable in this cap world. That said, if the Leafs could exchange him for a top flight center, they probably should.

Tyler Bozak

Quick Thoughts
He plays in every situation for the Leafs and gets a ton of ice time. It would be nice to see him without Kessel for an extended period of time to see what he looks like without an elite player on his line to really get a gauge on his abilities. The biggest thing for me is that Bozak does not compare to the elite centers pretty well every top team in the East has, nor is he good enough defensively to compensate. He’s the easiest guy to target for criticism because he plays with two all-stars (and those two do make mistakes, too), but he’s not a driving force on that line, he is a complement to it.

Selling low or high?
Bozak just had a career high in goals (19), assists (30), points (49), shooting percentage (21%) and points per game (.84). Not much more I need to add to that to figure out whether this is a sell high or low scenario, is there?

Verdict
Bozak turned 28 this year so maybe he has another year or two of high end production before falling off and his deal isn’t terrible at $4.2M/season for another four years. That said, the Leafs have to explore if they can cash in on a career year, bring in a defenseman, and then replace him at center (somehow). This summer might be—probably will be—the climax of Bozak’s value as some other teams are bound to see a 1C playing over 20 minutes a night, getting PP and PK time, and scoring at a nice clip. If this team wants to break the trend and make a big shake up of their core this kind of series of moves is, in theory, the easiest, fastest, way to do so.

Joffrey Lupul

Quick Thoughts
He played as a right winger for an extended period of time this year even though he prefers the left, and it showed. Lupul is a gifted goal scorer who has the ability to protect the puck down low and generate cycles plus offense out of very little, although last year he did start to get into this nasty habit of toe-dragging guys at the top of the circle instead of driving the net. For as good as he is offensively, he’s pretty well just as bad defensively. The best that line looked was when Lupul-Kadri-Kulemin were a unit because there was nice balance there; otherwise, Lupul has to be sheltered. He clearly couldn’t play with Clarkson last season, either.

Selling low or high?
After putting up 103 points in his first 110 games as a Leaf (regular season), Lupul had a down year putting up 44 points –22 of which were goals—in 69 games. He’s turning 31 this year, has an injury history, and is making $5.25M for the next four seasons. On one hand, getting an older guy with an injury history and long term deal off the books would be nice. On the other hand, they would be selling this guy on the low because, while he didn’t have a bad season, he definitely did not have a good one.

Verdict
If a bad year for Lupul is 22 goals in 69 games (26 goal pace over 82), I’d be willing to take the chance he can rebound and produce better under different circumstances. Of course, there’s every possibility he just gets hurt again, misses a large chunk of the season, and then is completely immovable, but I’d roll the dice he can bounce back and then sell high if anything. I don’t think they could trade him for much right now and, unless they are tanking, they shouldn’t trade him for the sake of trading him.

Nazem Kadri

Quick Thoughts
If you didn’t expect Kadri to come anywhere near 70 points after a great season last year, he had a decent first full NHL regular season. 20 goals is a nice achievement and 50 points is a nice milestone, too. Any time he played with Clarkson it was ugly and Mason Raymond isn’t exactly a world beater, either. Kulemin wouldn’t help his offensive numbers much but he did assume defensive responsibilities for Kadri and was a help there. It’s underrated how great he is at drawing penalties and he’s a fun player to watch, but the physicality in his game last year went south which was a disappointment. The audition alongside Kessel was not bad in retrospect, although I’m not sure the ultimate long-term plan should be he and Kessel on the top line together anyway. It would be nice for them to be on the power play together, though.

Selling low or high?
After putting up 44 points in 48 games, Kadri regressed to many this year when he followed it up 20 goals and 30 assists for 50 points in 78 games. He’s turning 24 this year and is still signed for another season at $2.9M after which he becomes an RFA again. Kadri’s point totals will continue to go up in time, so they aren’t even close to selling high here. By no means would they be selling low, and Kadri should have value around the league, but if they move him it would be a shock to cash in now on the homegrown center who is coming along reasonably. Right now, they’d be trading a 50 point guy with upside; a year or two from now, he could be a 70 point guy. Unless they are getting that type of value, it’s a sell low.

Verdict
You need to give to get, but thus far when you look around the market (teams we think are open for business include Carolina and Vancouver) there isn’t much out there that would justify moving Kadri. Maybe that changes in the summer when some playoff team that exited early panics, but I said all year I didn’t think the right type of deal would come along and it didn’t. I still think that heading into the summer. That can obviously change very quickly, but for now they should be planning on keeping him.

David Clarkson

Quick Thoughts
Could not have had a worse opening season with the Leafs. He got suspended for 10 games to start the year, didn’t appear to see eye-to-eye with the coaching staff, is rumoured to be counting his dollars instead of focusing on hockey, and did not produce a lick. Was supposed to be a physical presence but that was only shown in random fights instead of actual hard-nosed play; when he went into the corners he was easily pushed off the puck and he wasn’t able to add any real forechecking to the team. He was decent at getting the puck out of the zone along the wall, if you’re looking for a positive.

Selling low or high?
60 games, 5 goals, 11 points, not much to say here. We all know the answer.

Verdict
If there is some team out there that really believes in Clarkson and is willing to take him on, then sure, move him and be done with this whole thing. But that’s probably not reality. They have to ride it out and hope he rebounds (and really, can he possibly be that bad again).

Dion Phaneuf

Quick Thoughts
Looked really good in the first half of the season where he was playing solid, reliable, hockey and was very comfortable in that role. Was miscast as the PPQB on the left side of the power play when really he’s a one-timer triggerman from the right side, and his point totals suffered because of that (his 11 PP points were a career low). By the end of the season he seemed to be very slow and almost immobile at times getting beat wide, losing races, and struggling to move around out there in general; it’s unclear at this point if he was playing hurt.

Selling low or high?
At 29, Phaneuf had one of the lowest point totals in his career this year for the Leafs totalling 31 in 80 games. The only time he’s produced worse in a normal season was his first full year in Toronto when he had 30 in 66. We all know he plays against the other team’s best players religiously and he’s had one true top pairing partner since he’s been here (Francois Beauchemin, which was short lived). He also doesn’t get much help from the forwards who don’t back-check nearly as hard as good teams forwards do, plus his partner is nothing to write home about, either. If the Leafs moved him, they’d do so to turn over a new page and clear him out, and it’d be a definite sell low.

Verdict
Phaneuf is sort of in the same boat as Lupul – he isn’t a bad player and unless they are tanking, it only makes to keep him, see if he can rebound, and then move him when his value is high. It doesn’t make sense to trade him just for the sake of doing so. If anything, it would be nice to get a true top pairing partner and then assess from there. Perhaps Gardiner takes another step next season and that will be his partner all year. They also need to lessen his workload, which is painfully obvious.

Carl Gunnarsson

Quick Thoughts
How bad is this guy’s hip injury and is it ever going to get well enough for him to get back to his old self? Gunnarsson is a solid defenseman and a reasonable top 4, but his lateral movements look painful and he really struggles at taking a D-to-D pass, turning up ice, and moving the puck up. That would seem, from the outside looking in, to stem from his hip issues. He’s still solid positionally and has a nice reach due to his lanky 6’2 frame. He rarely gets beat one-on-one and isn’t flashy, but he also doesn’t impose his play on the game. He’s a steady, solid, everyday defenseman at the end of the day.

Selling low or high?
Don’t think his value will ever increase much more, nor will it decrease much in the next little while. Maybe the Leafs can sell him as a guy that’s playing on the top pairing, signed to a reasonable deal, is in his prime and plays tough minutes and get some nice value back, but they can’t just move him for no reason. It would probably only make sense to move Gunnarsson if they were packaging him in a deal to upgrade on D (and he has the kind of contract/pedigree to do that).

Verdict
If they could package him for an upgrade on defense that would be nice, but if they could bring in another top four D somehow without doing that it would push Gunnarsson down to the second pairing, where he’d be much more effective. In Gunnarsson’s first three years on the team he had 45 SOG in 43 games followed by 69 in 68 and 89 in 76. In the lockout shortened season he had 28 in 37 games, and this year he shot 48 times in 80. That just can’t happen. Yeah, he gets buried with tough zone starts and match-ups, but he’s playing over 19 minutes a night with good Leafs players. It would be nice to keep Gunnarsson for, if anything, insurance in case Morgan Rielly takes a step back, but if the value is there for Gunnarsson the Leafs should explore it.

Tim Gleason

Quick Thoughts
He endeared himself early on to the Leafs faithful by sacrificing his body and blocking a lot of shots, but as his time in Toronto progressed, the holes in his game became apparent. Everyone knew offense was never part of his game, but he was missing assignments defensively, making head-scratching neutral zone step ups, and his outlet reads left something to be desired (although, in his defense, the Leafs forwards often bailed the zone and left him out to dry).

Selling low or high?
They’d probably be selling low, but with two years left on his deal making $4M per, this is the kind of guy you move just for the sake of moving and getting rid of the bad contract. Can’t make it any simpler than that.

Verdict
It would be a shock if someone was interested in Gleason, but obviously if anyone is then move him right away. The likely thing is they either consider a buyout, which wouldn’t be that bad, or keep him and ride it out, hoping to trade him next year when he only has a year left. The caveat here is that they have to be willing to sit him so the kids can play if/when they are ready. They went with 7 D a lot down the stretch when he was clearly the worst of the group, while kids like D’Amigo sat and watched the gassed forwards from the press box.

Morgan Rielly

Quick Thoughts
Really impressive rookie season getting into 73 games and throwing up 27 points in a little over 17 minutes a night. He’s obviously fast and very skilled, but what’s underrated is that he’s a little fire hydrant out there and doesn’t get beat by bigger guys in the corners. He is one strong kid. A full season getting second power play unit time throughout should result in a very nice boost to his point totals. For some reason, him and Franson were always terrible when together for 5v5 hockey. The fact that he can play LD or RD, though, is a really nice thing to have when building the defense as it makes the management’s life a little easier.

Selling low or high?
Top 5 pick that’s only 20 and already has a full year under his belt in which he played well? Yeah, they could get a lot for this kid.

Verdict
He’s not going anywhere.

Jonathan Bernier

Quick Thoughts
Had a very nice debut season with the Leafs posting a .923sv% 2.68GAA in 55 games, winning 26 of them. Have always said I’m not a goalie guy, but I will admit that he’s very fun to watch in the net as he plays with the puck, gets physical sometimes, is calm and collected, and was often able to stop a classic Leafs-getting-dominated-for-a-full-minute shift by covering the puck.

Selling low or high?
Well, he’s 25, just had a good debut season and won the starters gig, and is signed for another season making $2.9M before becoming an RFA again. So, they’d be selling him pretty high right now.

Verdict
They aren’t trading Bernier, either.

Next, we’ll look at RFAs and UFAs.

1836 comments
NotInsane
NotInsane

I am going to my first Marlies game next Thursday!  yay.  Only $22.50 each. 

wendelsfist
wendelsfist

These fancy stats offer strange results.  Looking at CF%Rel the best possession leaf players are

Best:  Kadri, Gardiner, Kessel, JVR, Bolland, Franson

Middle:  Raymond, Rielly, Clarkson, Bozak, Bodie, Kulemin Worst:   Gleason, Mclemment, Lupul, Phaneuf, Gunnarson

Some of these are strange like Franson is one of our better dmen.  But I'm surprised Bolland is so high especially gets tough usage.   People say that Phaneuf has tough usage (high QOC) but never use that excuse for Gleason, Gunnar or Mclemment.   And they don't  note that Kadri/Gardiner gets "easy" sheltered usage.     

CanuckUKinToronto
CanuckUKinToronto

Hey guys.. just a headsup warning to posters... THIS IS SERIOUS


PLEASE NOTE:


I just did a google news search under the name posted re- charged person ...

it actually has a link to MLHS site and the poster .. now I am not referring to this story ( I blocked out the name so it doesnt show my username on google search linked to this..


The reason why I am posting here is if you recall a certain GM who went to court re legal suits on blog posters.. just fyi.. that what you say even here may end up in google search heaven... be careful. uh oh, now Kule's agent will be after me for my last posts.. lol  but in seriousness be careful


Toronto Maple Leafs: Buy Low, Sell Highmapleleafshotstove.com › Analysisby Anthony Petrielli1 day ago - Just in: The name of the OHL billet w/ NHL stars as close friends is ****. He's Eric Lindros' longtime fishing buddy. #NHL. 4evrblue ...

CanuckUKinToronto
CanuckUKinToronto

Is there any stat that shows players PK success?  plus minus but on PK. We see where we rank as a team success in pk.. you can see team and individual PP  ppg and ppp (but no plus minus re pk).. On ice when goals scored on pk- ranked by players.. ie. pk sucked but was it all McC- or when Raymond/JVR/Bozak on ?   where are stats for that?

CanuckUKinToronto
CanuckUKinToronto

For all the people who think Kule is a great 2 way player or even "good defensively"-  watch the highlights of last year playoffs vs Boston-  When up 4-1  (Horton scores-  Kule's man)- Gardiner leaves him as Mac was not covering on the break effectively http://www.nhl.com/gamecenter/en/boxscore?id=2012030147

Lucic to make it 4-3  Gunnarsson's man/fault- but watch Kule-  who is he covering?  just in no man's land.


http://www.nhl.com/gamecenter/en/boxscore?id=2012030147


Tie goal by Bergeron-  point shot went through (Kule) .. not effort to block it.

http://www.nhl.com/gamecenter/en/boxscore?id=2012030147


Not putting blame on the guy but also dont think he is a "great" defensive player...


I hope we dont re-sign him (as he will want more than $3m and term).. would prefer to try kids.. cheaper and maybe better effort

NotSince67
NotSince67

@wendelsfist  In terms of possession Cody Franson has a great Corsi. His on ice goal rate 5-on-5 is simply attrocious and I would say his on-ice sv% is significant given how low it is and how much he's played. I feel it's indicative of someone who gives up REALLY high quality shots when compared against his peers.

It's worse 5v5 Close too...

NotInsane
NotInsane

@CanuckUKinToronto  

I remember without having to see the video.

Kulie is an okay hockey player.  The Leafs will be fine without him.

wendelsfist
wendelsfist

@Bruffins @wendelsfist  The stats guys on twitter say Bolland and Clarkson etc are garbage but I don't see it based on their stats.  Clarkson looks to be a better forward then Kulemin.  And Bolland is arguably better then Kadri given his tougher zone starts usage.   


The stats folks are making up stories from what I can tell. 

4evrblue
4evrblue

@wendelsfist @CanuckUKinToronto am I reading this correctly then? Specific to our team JVR is the best at keeping the puck out of the net on the PK while Kulemin, Franson and McClement were the worst?

wendelsfist
wendelsfist

@4evrblue @wendelsfist @CanuckUKinToronto  

Since so few goals are scored against on the PK then some use which player minimizes shots against (rather then goals) as a better measure.    The results for shots against are different. Based on goals against the best to worst are JVR, Gunnar, Raymond, Gleason, Phaneuf, Mclemment, Franson, Kulemin.   Based on shots against (corsi) the best in order are Raymond, Gleason, kulemin, Franson, Gunnarson, JVR, Mclemment, Phaneuf


Raymond/Gleason look pretty good by both shots/goals against and Phaneuf/Mclemment look below team average. 

NotSince67
NotSince67

@CanuckUKinToronto @Cameron19 @Greg Fenton  In fact, I looked. Duschene is 84th, ROR is 133rd, and both Landeskog, MacKinnon and Statsny gave a better Corsi% up by one than ROR.

Guys in the top 10? Seabrook, Backes, Bergeron, Kopitar, Vlassic, Zajac, Marchand, Krug, Sharp, and the two Smiths (Brendan and Reilly).

Conversely, search the PDO of 200+ mins in the league Up by a goal, and Colorado litters the top 60.

Varlamov.

CanuckUKinToronto
CanuckUKinToronto

@Cameron19 @CanuckUKinToronto@Greg Fenton one other thing Cam.. when you look at the whole league for players who have played more than 200 mins 5 on 5 up by a goal (protecting lead).. the best 2 players for GA-  ROR and then Duchene.. wow.. 1-2 punch for avs there..


If you look at those top 40 guys GA20 and look at differential.. it is Seabrook, Desharnais, Keith Gallagher, Spurgeon, Schwartz, C Perry, Markov, Soderberg, Getzlaf, ROR Krug,

NotSince67
NotSince67

@CanuckUKinToronto @Greg Fenton  I agree with Greg here. Essentially what Greg is saying is these guys AREN'T a known commodity. Can they play 18-mins a night? Holland has on a rare occasion, and D'Amigo got his toes wet. But the reality of it you're penciling in someone to do something they're not proven in yet with any body of work in that role.

If you want a 2nd/3rd line role with a defensive specialist, you try to acquire an NHL proven player, so say Troy Bodieor you go the way of Chris Neil, or a Clarke Macarthur, maybe a Versteeg (if you want a little offensive flair), whoever you particularly fancy and acquire. If they get beat out for the job by the AHLer, good! 

Guys are supposed to win jobs, steal jobs and that you are not just handed a job into the NHL because we couldn't find a replacement. If he wasn't good enough the year before, he's not now.

And I like D'Amigo in particular, I feel Peter Holland established himself as an NHLer. But they have to earn and win their ice time if 1) You're trying to ice the best roster possible and 2) You want these kids to be ready and develop instead of possibly throwing them to the wolves

CanuckUKinToronto
CanuckUKinToronto

@Greg Fenton @CanuckUKinToronto I dont think "some kids either".  I truly think that Holland and D'Amigo can ALREADY handle 12-18 mins of ice time per game in the NHL and be productive.  My opinion.. But those were mins that Kule was getting so can be replaced.

CanuckUKinToronto
CanuckUKinToronto

@Greg Fenton @CanuckUKinToronto I think we have enough Marlies to fill that hole-  You have pretty much top 6 filled unless you trade.  You have Holland, D'Amigo, Ashton, Leivo, Abbott, Bodie, Carrick, Broll.. Plus you will prob sign one bottom 6 UFA and trade in package for other ..
 I showed earlier how little we used rookie mins vs other teams like Bos, Chic, TB, Ducks, etc.  And some of those wont be rookies next year.. It is time to see what some can do

CanuckUKinToronto
CanuckUKinToronto

@Greg Fenton @CanuckUKinToronto maybe you dont but the $2- $2.5m you save per year over next 2 yrs could be used to upgrade on D - pay a D $4.5m on Franson upgrade
 .. he was never a "warrior"... to classify as that - his body would have been sacrificed over and over..  he is who he is.  A third liner who can make the Russian Olympic team but not make an impact there and also play mins here but not really make an impact