Wednesday Mashup: Wake me up when it’s hockey season

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Wednesday Leafs Links:

  • Habskilla

    first

  • dlb Mad

    Habskilla 
    you cheated

  • Burtonboy

    Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

  • Burtonboy

    https://twitter.com/chrisboucher73 https://twitter.com/chrisboucher73/status/499684409998839808
    I work with corsi; I believe in it. BUT, it’s a team stat; using it to rate individual players just isn’t accurate enough https://twitter.com/hashtag/WhatNotWho?src=hash

  • BoneChompski

    Burtonboy Isn’t Relative Corsi the individual stat?  Possession of a player as compared to the rest of the team?  It would seem like all stats to provide some insight but not the complete story.

  • Burtonboy

    BoneChompski Burtonboy I’m doing a lot of reading trying to get a better understanding . What I am finding out so far there is still a lot of differing opinions on stats like corsi

  • loomx

    Burtonboy It depends. If you’re trying to compare players from different teams, then yeah you need a lot more context and variables. The individual stat is good to see who’s a weak link on your team and/or who’s not in a fit in the role he’s currently in.

  • BoneChompski

    Burtonboy Excluding shoot-out statistics all stats are team stats as they are the result of 6 (or less) players on ice.  Goals, assists, save %, all them are the result of 6 players working together.

  • Burtonboy

    loomx Burtonboy I’m not sure you even have enough solid info doing this stuff manually which is what they are doing right now. Even simple SOG are all over the map from building to building.

  • Burtonboy

    https://twitter.com/chrisboucher73 https://twitter.com/chrisboucher73/status/499687669786738688
    For 1/2 the cost of a 4th liner, a team could produce a database with individual puck-possession data for every NHL player from every game

  • loomx

    Burtonboy There’s no reason for the Leafs to not be the leader in this.

  • loomx

    Burtonboy loomx Right, but that’s more of a problem when comparing players on different teams. For players on the same team, you can kind of assume the same bias.

  • Burtonboy

    loomx Burtonboy I would be treading lightly right now . There are so many changes and advancements coming you need to be certain your going in the right direction . Buy the wrong system or hire the wrong guys and it could fuck you up completely

  • loomx

    How I think the East is going to shape up this year:

    Atlantic:
    1. Boston
    2. Tampa Bay
    3. Toronto
    Metro:
    1. Pittsburgh
    2. Washington
    3. New York Rangers
    Wild Card:
    1. Montreal
    2. New Jersey
    3. Detroit
    4. Columbus
    5. Philadelphia
    6. NY Islanders
    7. Florida
    8. Carolina
    9. Ottawa
    10. Buffalo
    Playoff Matchups: Tampa Bay vs. Toronto, Washington vs. NYR, Pittsburgh vs. Montreal, Boston vs. New Jersey

  • Burtonboy

    loomx As far as the Leafs are concerned I might agree if I was certain the Leafs systems will change enough . Right now were the Leafs wind up lies solely in the hands of that coaching staff being able to fix the issues they had last yr . If they don’t the Leafs could easily be a lottery team

  • dlb Mad

    @Burtonboy
    i see nothing to buy into at this time, other than to listen and compare it to what the people i trust tell me to see if, in time, it comes out relative

  • loomx

    Leafs make the playoffs because:
    a) I don’t see them scoring less goals. The loss of goals from Raymond get replaced by an overall more productive bottom 6, Phaneuf should score/create more with a better supporting cast and a more offensive partner,
    b) I don’t see them allowing as many shots and even though Bernier’s probably going to be letting in a few more goals, it shouldn’t make too much of a difference.
    c) The division should be weaker as a whole. Boston will be slightly weaker, Montreal will be weaker, Tampa will be stronger, but most importanly, Ottawa will probably have a miserable season.

  • loomx

    Burtonboy loomx Yeah. They could end up anywhere from where I put them to 2nd last place in the East.

  • Cameron19

    loomx I think Buffalo will surprise and be a little further up the chart than expected. They should be adding Moulson, Gionta, Stewart and Grigorenko to their forward group, with really only Ott leaving. I guess they lost Miller and Ehrhoff on the back-end, but they have lots of talented kids who could surprise. Still probably bottom 3 but not sure they’re a slam dunk for last in the conference. I think Ottawa and Carolina are worse.

  • Burtonboy

    dlb Mad There are systems used in football since the 1990″s. Man United started using a computerized tracking system many yrs ago. Its new to hockey but not new to many other sports

  • dlb Mad

    loomx 
    i agree that BOS will come down a notch, but they still have Rask which will keep them out front of the pack most likely.
    i see MTL and TOR being neck and neck, and i actually don’t believe in Tampa until i see it.  that giant goalie of their’s could very well make them a top team.

  • loomx

    Burtonboy loomx Well I would argue that they have been hiring the wrong guys and buying the wrong system without any kind of advanced stats but I digress.

    Sure they need to find the thing that works. But there’s no reason they shouldn’t be able to hire the best and brightest available. They should be constantly adding young brains like Kyle Dubas, they’re scouting staff should unquestionably be the best, training and conditioning yadda yadda yadda. They should be flaunting their money every where that there’s no cap. It’s time for the team to show what money can buy.

  • Burtonboy

    loomx Burtonboy Personally I would much rather they do the proper research and buy the right system and hire the right people then jumping the gun hiring idiots who will only make the situation worse

  • loomx

    Cameron19 loomx It’s always tough to rank the bottom teams. Buffalo will score more but probably not enough to make up the 40 goal differential last year between them and the team with the next fewest GF. Without Miller and with the incredibly young D they’ll probably allow more goals too. But it can go any way.

  • dlb Mad

    Burtonboy
    right.  but we see ten people collect it all deifferent, then we see ten more people decipher it all different.
    people like Dubas have hockey “knowledge” or whatever we’re calling it, but that can’t be confused with an analytics guy since it leads to bias before even opening up the book to read the numbers.
    there is no science or math that i’ve seen to rival a good set of eyes still.  there are guys in the sport who have a good reputation for having a good eye.  there hasn’t been a long enough track to record the accuracy of the analytics for us to know who’s good and who’s bad at breaking it all down correctly.
    so, i don’t ignore it.  i just don’t treat it like a secret weapon.

  • loomx

    dlb Mad loomx I see Pittsburgh as the only team passing Boston.

    I like Nabokov too. I think he’s stil way better than what he could show with the Isles. Could be a solid tandem

  • dlb Mad

    loomx
    i agree.  but i think that’s what they’ve attempted to do for a while now.

  • loomx

    About advanced stats thing below: This is where advanced stats is going to get a bit muddy. What extraskater reports vs. what a team’s stats department reports can be very different. They have the better tools, better access, and more money to fund their department so if they say “well our numbers are telling us one thing” while extraskater’s is saying another thing…ugh, it just becomes a mess.

    Stats guys think that advanced stats is going to be more accepted. I think this is just going to make debates worse. Before it was: “the stats are saying one thing and the team clearly isn’t listening.” Well now clearly teams are listening so what’s the problem? Have they hired a stats guy just for show? Are they not using stats properly? Who’s to blame?

  • dlb Mad

    Burtonboy
    don’t believe in voodoo, just check the people’s resumes

  • loomx

    dlb Mad loomx Have they? Because I don’t really see it other than getting top notch facilities. They keep getting schlubs in the front office and behind the bench. Old guys with pedigrees. It’s fine to have experienced guys. But there’s no reason that the most expensive team in the league shouldn’t be finding guys like Dean Lombardi or Peter Chiarelli, as well as more gems in the late rounds of the draft.

  • Cameron19

    loomx Cameron19 I think you have to remember that they practically threw the first two months of the season down the drain by just arbitrarily giving all their rookies roster spots, before Nolan came in and sent them all away. It’s true there are some big gaps there, but I still don’t see them finishing dead last with Ottawa looking so dreadful.

  • loomx

    Burtonboy loomx I think we can all agree that hiring idiots is the wrong way to go. Hiring the best and brightest in the business should be a fact of life in Toronto. 

    Last year was an absolute gong show with some of the most idiotic statements I’ve heard from any kind of management. It went beyond just not believing that corsi is the way to go, it just sounded like purposefully dumb statements from people who thought they knew it all.(mostly form Loiselle and Poulin)

  • loomx

    Cameron19 loomx Yeah they’re not looking good. Only thing that can save them is a heroic season from Anderson.(and he’s shown he can do that)

  • Cameron19

    loomx Cameron19 True. He seems to be one year on one year off.

  • Burtonboy

    loomx Burtonboy Do we even know at this point who are the best and the brightest in this field? I think its far too early to tell

  • loomx

    Burtonboy loomx No reason for the Leafs not to find out. What’s the last Maple Leafs GM or Assistant GM or even coach who went to another team and found success? Detroit seems to be able to do it every year. every year there seems to be a guy from Detroit rumoured to be the front runner for a management or coaching position in the league. What’s their secret and why can’t the richest team in the league find those guys from the start too?

  • Burtonboy

    loomx Burtonboy Too many idiots calling the shots

  • Burtonboy

    https://twitter.com/MapleLeafs https://twitter.com/MapleLeafs/status/499699471505039360
    Aug. 14 is Dairy Queen’s Miracle Treat Day. Meet Phil at 351 Bremner Blvd (12:30p-2). Proceeds benefit SickKids.

  • Tim Horton

    Burtonboy Phil probably likes the cookie dough blizzard.

  • wiski

    So you’re all over here, thought it was too dead in the other thread

  • Pent_House

    Burtonboy

    I’m gonna go blaze with em

  • vinoa

    loomx I think Tampa will be taking the Atlantic this year. I’m not sure Boston still rules the East like it has for the last few seasons.

  • peterbleafs

    loomx Burtonboy I think this coming year is a writeoff in terms of playoffs but I do hope we just learn to play solid hockey by mid season.

  • peterbleafs

    Cameron19 loomx Buffalo have a really strong set of Centers developing.  They will be very strong, if not this year, next year for sure.

  • peterbleafs

    Burtonboy Had a Dairy Queen cone after gassing up….still love their soft ice cream.

  • Anthony Petrielli

    BoneChompski Burtonboy corsi rel just compares you to your teammatse

  • Dangle_My_Berries

    its the dog days.

  • TML__fan

    Burtonboy loomx So true.  Only difference now is there’s a larger magnifying glass looking down on the entire situation from Shanahan & Nonis.  The players and the coaching staff know that complacency and status quo is NOT an option.  This team has to improve or more serious changes will follow.

  • Bon Scott was a Leaf fan

    Just spoke to my aunt.  Big rain storm in Quebec yesterday….knocked down a bunch of plants (purple kush).  Could be a light harvest this season.
    #hopeforthebest

  • Dangle_My_Berries

    Gilbey93 Dangle_My_Berries yup. this baseball watching thing isn’t work