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It feels like it’s still early in the season, but we’ve passed the 25% point with the Leafs having played 21 of their 82 games.

I’ve been tracking scoring chance numbers for a couple of seasons, (see a discussion of my methodology at the top of my first post at MLHS), and here I’ll give a little look at how the season’s gone thus far for the Leafs in my tracking. It’s worth noting that 21 games is still a relatively small sample, and when looking at even strength close chances — which tend to be the most reflective of a team’s play — the samples are actually still very small. Don’t take any of this as concrete ‘fact,’ but rather as early season trends.

OverallEven StrengthES Close
ForAgainst%ChFChA%ChFChA%
43945449.2%30233647.3%17818848.6%

The Leafs‘ chance numbers at the quarter mark have been quite good; as a comparison, they ended last season at 44% at even strength and at ES close. This is in parallel with other improved possession metrics, such as Fenwick and Corsi; that’s hardly surprising, as scoring chances to tend to mirror Corsi over the long term. For all the concern over the last ten days or so, there have been some positive signs in these numbers that the Leafs are an improved team from previous incarnations. If these numbers can continue over a full season (far from a certainty), this would be the best group put together under Carlyle.

One small note is just how bad Buffalo have been against the Leafs, as without those two games, the Leafs‘ numbers actually look very similar to last season’s. Of course, that’s hardly a fair comparison, as the Leafs played bad teams last year, too.

Another big improvement for the Leafs have been the special teams, particularly the penalty kill. Last year, the Leafs averaged 8% of the chances when short-handed; this year, that has more than doubled, up to nearly 17%, and that’s been reflected in four short-handed goals, compared to just eight all of last season. If that can continue throughout the season, it will be a huge boost to Toronto’s playoff hopes.

PeriodForAgainst%
19610348.2%
211411250.4%
38811343.8%
44833.3%

These are numbers at even strength, without score effects considered. The Leafs have been very good in the second period, but their numbers in the third have been really poor; to look into this a little further, let’s look at their results by score state in the third.

3rd Period StateForAgainst%
Leading by 191537.5%
Tied162044.4%
Trailing by 1151353.6%

This sums up a problem that I saw last year as well; the Leafs’ performance when defending a lead, compared to their ability to chase leads, has been a consistent problem. To be clear, the issue isn’t that the Leafs give up more chances when defending third period leads than at other times; that’s perfectly expected. Rather, the problem is that they aren’t able to dominate play by a similar margin when they’re the ones chasing. Opponents have had 60% of ES chances when the Leafs have been ahead in the third, while the Leafs have had only 54% when chasing a one goal deficit. This problem baloons with larger gaps, as Toronto have had less than 50% of chances when behind by any margin in the third.

The most prominent example of this was the Chicago game, when James Reimer had to stand on his head to hold off the Hawks, but I saw it consistently last season and it seemed to be a feature of the Leafs series with Boston two years ago as well.

There is good news on this front, as the sample sizes are small, so this is far from a definitive effect. In the last week or so, the Leafs have had some strong performances while defending third period leads, so they could well recover to a more respectable number over time.

Forwards

Overall#Even StrengthES Close
ForAgainst%TOIForAgainst%
Ashton35183.3%06:0930100.0%
Lupul9413951.3%15:25271958.7%
Clarkson21887853.0%12:41493955.7%
Panik20394049.4%08:42262254.2%
Kadri219310247.7%13:34625652.5%
Winnik19586447.5%11:59343152.3%
Komarov21706651.5%12:36363550.7%
Kessel2112413248.4%14:53767650.0%
Bozak2111211748.9%15:04656749.2%
Smith7131546.4%07:547846.7%
Van Riemsdyk2111113944.4%15:08677846.2%
Holland21506643.1%10:23273345.0%
Santorelli21626748.1%12:38313944.3%
Leivo8182146.2%07:33111542.3%
Carrick541126.7%08:0741126.7%
Frattin651327.8%06:5831220.0%
Kozun551821.7%07:2531318.8%

These are the seventeen forwards who have played at least one game for the Leafs this year. Ten have played in at least nineteen games, and Lupul, the 11th, makes up the last of what I’d consider regular players.

The story of the season up front is David Clarkson. Last year, he was a black hole of possession, one of the worst regular players on the team in terms of chances. This season has been the opposite, as he’s the best regular player at ES Overall. Part of this is down to getting more friendly zone starts, as last season he was one of the more DZone heavy forwards, whereas this season he is much closer to the team average (stats from war-on-ice.com). However, a good part of it is also down to flat out playing better; while he may never live up to his contract, he’s been far from the liability he was last year.

Joffrey Lupul has very strong numbers in his nine games, and his return to the lineup, expected this week, should give Toronto’s top six a further boost.

Only one other forward is above 50% at ES overall, and that’s “Uncle” Leo Komarov. While his return was widely heralded as being about character and grit, he’s also been one of the more consistent drivers of attacking play, despite not getting a ton of time with the top lines. He’s been rewarded for this play; he’s got more ES points than Kadri, Bozak or Van Riemsdyk. Considering he’s had some of the toughest zone starts on the team, that’s an incredibly impressive performance.

Other than those guys, the big drivers of the Leafs’ improvement has been the duo of Phil Kessel and Tyler Bozak. Early in the year, both have been pretty close to even (~48.5% ES, ~49.5% ES Close) in terms of chances for the Leafs, which is a small boost from where they were last season (around 45%.). The top line is still a ‘high-event’ line, tending to be on for a lot of chances at both ends, but on nights where they can keep the margin close to even the Leafs tend to be effective. In terms of ES chances, the problem on the line is James Van Riemsdyk, who has moved backward relative to his line-mates. His numbers are broadly similar to last year’s, and he has the worst defensive chance rate (chances against/TOI) of the regular forwards.

Nazem Kadri has had an up-and-down start to the season; his chance numbers are about the same as last year’s, and his ES points match the likes of Bozak and JVR, but he’s struggled on the powerplay, and has not been particularly consistent.

Peter Holland is an odd player for me to assess from the chance numbers; last year he was really poor, and while he’s improved this season, he’s still near the bottom of chance and possession metrics, despite not having particularly challenging zone starts or competition numbers. I’m far from sold that he’s any kind of long term solution in the middle, and to see his ES ice time get past Kadri’s in several games this year doesn’t seem to be a great thing for the team.

Mike Santorelli and Daniel Winnik had great starts to the season; they’ve both cooled off somewhat in the last ten games, but are still among the better forwards at ES overall. Richard Panik‘s positive numbers are dependent on a few games where he’s gotten a lot of ice time and produced in it. When he’s been a fourth-liner, he’s been more inconsistent.

Defence

Overall#Even StrengthES Close
ForAgainst%TOIForAgainst%
Franson191098456.5%15:05654857.5%
Rielly2010210848.6%15:00595651.3%
Phaneuf2112312649.4%17:01797651.0%
Gardiner19768646.9%16:20404646.5%
Polak218912841.0%17:41566944.8%
Robidas20789844.3%15:10425742.4%
Percy8264138.8%14:54142238.9%

Cody Franson is the man to talk about on the back end. After an unimpressive season in 2013-14, he’s really been excellent this year. His zone starts have gotten a little friendlier, but his competition numbers are still difficult, and his chance numbers have gone through the roof. He’s the only defenceman at ES overall who is above 50%, after being one of the lowest regulars last year. His rate numbers are very impressive, as he’s been far and away the most effective defender in terms of being on for chances per minute. If Franson can continue this level of play over the full season, he’ll likely earn himself a substantial long-term contract, whether here in Toronto or somewhere else.

Dion Phaneuf consistently gets a lot of flak, although that’s partly down to his role as captain. While he hasn’t been as good as Franson, he’s also had a solid year, and continues to play fairly difficult competition. If Carlyle continues to ask a similar level of zone starts and competition from him, there’s no reason to expect he can’t stay at this level. If the difficulty increases, as I discuss next, he may slide back.

Roman Polak‘s numbers are really poor, but that’s not really a condemnation of his play as much as his usage. Of the regular defencemen, Polak has been easily the most buried in terms of zone starts, and this burden of difficult starts is one of the main reasons that Franson and Phaneuf have been able to get a little more favourable starts this year, and likely has helped their boost in numbers. In addition, Polak has played a lot, leading the team in ES ice time. His recent injury could prove to be a major problem for the Leafs; while his numbers are bad, Stuart Percy, who played more with Polak than anyone else, and in similarly difficult situations, has even worse numbers, which suggests there’s a chance it will be a substantial downgrade if Carlyle tries to plug another player into that role, .

The problem guy on defence is Stephane Robidas. Robidas’ numbers more similar to Polak’s than any of the other defencemen’s, but he’s gotten much softer zone starts and competition. Carlyle has used Robidas in similar situations to his two young defencemen, Morgan Rielly and Jake Gardiner, but the veteran’s numbers are clearly lower than either of the youngsters’. If he’s asked to take Polak’s difficult ice time with the Czech out, he’ll need to substantially improve his play in order to avoid some real trouble for the team. From a long-term perspective, it’s difficult to see Robidas finishing out his three year contract in Toronto if he can’t find a better level of play than what he’s shown; hopefully it’s just a slow start in a small sample.

Morgan Rielly has had some very good chance performances, but also some weak ones; he’s good when getting fairly soft minutes, but still can’t quite cope with big-time defensive duties. That’s not surprising from a young defenceman, and in general he’s been an effective player. I’m less bullish on Jake Gardiner; he’s an older player with a bigger contract and higher expectations, but also hasn’t been able to handle those harder minutes, and he’s the most protected of the regular defencemen. Despite that relatively soft ice-time, his offensive chance numbers have not really been there. All in all, it’s been a poor start to his new long-term contract.