Besides the Brian Burke connection and a few players who have played on both sides of this matchup (Dion Phaneuf, Matt Stajan, Mason Raymond, Joe Colborne who is out hurt), there are some interesting parallels between the Leafs and Flames in the past year.
The Flames, like the Leafs of early last season, are ostensibly a team on the rise, seemingly in the process of turning the corner. And yet there are the analytics folks in the background screaming “hold your horses.”
The Calgary Flames are winning games similar to how the Leafs did in the early parts of last season — sky-high shooting percentage despite paltry possession numbers.
(In fact, this is a match up of the 1st (Leafs) and 3rd (Flames) highest teams in shooting percentage).
One difference is that, while Flames are generating very few shots on goal (24.6/60 at 5v5, 29th in the League) and sit with a 44% Corsi For at 5v5 (29th, right where the Leafs were last season), they are doing a better job at shot prevention defensively, sitting middle of the pack in shots allowed per 60 at even strength.
One would be right to question if their third-highest goals for per game is something that’s going to sustain itself in the long run, however.
Nonetheless, Flames fans have lots to be excited about with their young team. They’ve got some talented, mobile defencemen just hitting their primes, and with some further development they’re well taken care of at the center ice position for the indefinite future with Monahan, Bennett, Backlund, Granlund and Colborne (all 25 or younger).
Under Hartley, their identity last season quickly took the shape of a scrappy underdog who were never going to secure a playoff spot in the West but were not going to be an easy out most nights. This year, with Monahan taking the next step, the emergence of Johnny Hockey and some talented added — most importantly at the goaltending position with Jonas Hiller — to go along with the high-energy identity and work habits instilled in them by Hartley, they’re among the top teams in the West through 27 games.
They’re not surprising anyone by this point, though, so the Leafs should be well prepared to have to match their intensity to come away with the win tonight.
You also have to expect the likes of Matt Stajan, Mason Raymond and point-a-game defenceman Mark Giordano (Toronto boy) to be extra motivated to get on the scoresheet.
The Calgary Flames are among the worst in the League at killing penalties, so it would be a good time for the Leafs to kick their recent mediocrity with the man advantage.
Defensively, Giordano, Brodie and Wideman all are very active (and productive) in the Flames attack and will have to be accounted for by the Leafs wingers.
Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Calgary Flames - Head to Head
| Head to Head: | Maple Leafs | Flames |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 14-9-3 (.596% - 13th) | 17-9-2 (.643-10th) |
| Goal Differential | +10 | +17 |
| PP | 20.6 (11th) | 21.3% (10th) |
| PK | 83.9 (9th) | 76.8% (24th) |
| GF/G | 3.42 (2nd) | 3.07 (5th) |
| GA/G | 3.00 (24th) | 2.54 (11th) |
| SF/G | 30.4 (13th) | 26.9 (28th) |
| SA/G | 33.3 (26th) | 29.0 (12th) |
| 5v5 SF/G | 29.1 (16th) | 24.6 (29th) |
| 5v5 SA/G | 32.1 (26th) | 29.2 (19th) |
| 5v5 CF% | 46.9% (26th) | 44% (29th) |
| 5v5 FF% | 47.5% (24th) | 46% (27th) |
| 5v5 Sh% | 9.71% (1st) | 9.52% (3rd) |
| 5v5 Sv% | 91.67% (20th) | 92.28% (14th) |
| FO% | 51.6% (9th) | 46.2% (29th) |
PK=Penalty Kill %
GF/G=Goals for per game
GA/G=Goals against per game
SF/G=Shots for per game
SA/G=Shots against per game
Sh%=Shooting %
Sv%=Save percentage
F0%=Faceoff percentage
CF%=Corsi for % (shot attempts: shots, blocked shots, missed shots)
FF%=Fenwick for% (shots+missed shots)
Calgary Flames Projected Lineup
Curtis Glencross – Sean Monahan – David Jones
(5-14-19) – (10-9-19) – (4-4-8) (19G TOT)
Johnny Gaudreau – Josh Jooris – Jiri Hudler
(5-16-21) – (8-4-2) – (11-15-26) (24G TOT)
Mason Raymond – Markus Granlund – Paul Byron
(5-2-7) – (3-6-9) – (5-5-10) (13G TOT)
Brandon Bollig – Matt Stajan – Lance Bouma
(0-2-2) – (1-2-3) – (5-4-9) (6G TOT)
Mark Giordano – TJ Brodie
(7-21-28) – (6-15-21) (13G TOT)
Kris Russell – Dennis Wideman
(0-13-13) – (10-7-17) (10G TOT)
Ladislav Smid – Deryk Engelland
(0-1-1) – (0-2-2)
Jonas Hiller
(9-6-2, .913SV%, 2.49GAA)
Karri Ramo
Scratched: Brian McGrattan, Michael Ferland
Injured: Sam Bennett (shoulder), Mikael Backlund (abdomen), Joe Colborne (wrist)
Toronto Maple Leafs Projected Lineup
Forwards
James van Riemsdyk – Tyler Bozak – Phil Kessel
(10g-11a-21pts) – (11g-13a-24pts) – (13g-14a-27pts) (34g TOT)
Daniel Winnik – Nazem Kadri – Mike Santorelli
(1g-8a-9pts) – (7g-8a-15pts) – (4g-14a-18pts) (12g TOT)
Joffrey Lupul – Peter Holland – David Clarkson
(6g-4a-10pts) – (6g-5a-11pts) – (8g-2a-10pts) (20g TOT)
Richard Panik – Trevor Smith – David Booth
(5g-1a-6pts) – (0g-2a-2pts) – (0g-1a-1pts) (5g TOT)
Defence
Cody Franson – Dion Phaneuf
(4g-13a-17pts) – (1g-12a-13pts) (5g TOT)
Morgan Rielly – Stephane Robidas
(3g-6a-9pts) – (0g-4a-4pts) (3g TOT)
Jake Gardiner – Korbinian Holzer
(2g-6a-8pts) – (0g-0a-0pts) (1g TOT)
Goal
Jonathan Bernier
(10W-6L-4SO/OTL, 2.72GAA-.916sv.%)
James Reimer
