After practice today, Jonas Siegel pulled Joffrey Lupul aside for a one-on-one chat about the buzz of a major rebuild in Leafland. The most candid and thoughtful interviewee on the team had a few interesting things to say.
[quote_box_center]I don’t really get it, blow it up. We’re just going to restart with a complete new group with four new guys next year and try to finish last? I don’t think that… I haven’t spoken to management at all, but I’m sure that’s not their idea. You can play a bunch of young guys and lose all year, who is to say that those young guys are going to develop? I think it is maybe more of a media-driven thing. There’s trade rumours on every guy in here, so who are we going to put on the ice next year?
You need veteran players, you need Polaks and Robidas, and you can’t just throw out a team of young guys and say well we’re going to get our ass kicked this year and we’ll be better next year. And it could hurt guys’ development big time, I think.
They’re all very good young players [in Edmonton], but it’s probably wearing on them not being on a good team however long Taylor Hall has been in the league.[/quote_box_center]
Joffrey Lupul has made a few important points here that sometimes get lost in the scorched-earth narratives.
Here’s the thing: Tanking is a teardown strategy, not a team building strategy. Draft and development, asset management (trades/free agency) and cap management are three core pillars of team building, and it doesn’t matter where you draft, those things have to be done well to succeed.
Boston and Detroit have won in recent years without high-high picks (of their own), while Los Angeles, Pittsburgh and Chicago have all benefited to varying degrees from drafting high after lean years. There’s little doubting it’s very difficult to get elite talent anywhere but the top of the draft, and the Leafs have to really get it right this year. And for that reason they should make sure they’re an even worse team after the deadline. This is a big opportunity and there’s no guarantee that the Leafs will draft this low again. This draft class has considerable hype, to boot.
Of course, there’s also the list of the teams that have drafted high and failed. There’s simply no definitive blueprint – finish this low for this number of years, draft this many players, and you’ll be good in this many years – that exists.
The point about Edmonton is oft cited, and one of the many things it tells us – and what Lupul is espousing – is that proper insulation while bringing along young assets is imperative. You don’t want to overexpose your young players, in the Toronto market especially. The same media that is beating the scorched-earth drum will rip some of these youngsters apart during the learning curves and cold streaks. You don’t want players getting roles and icetime handed to them they haven’t yet earned. You have to make the tough decisions, ones that don’t immediately sell jerseys and hope to fans, when you know a young stud needs more time in a feeder league. You don’t want to waste entry-level years on lost seasons and expedite the big paydays on your marquee young players. You need the right veterans around setting the tone, demanding accountability, and teaching the right work ethic and habits.
There’s tonnes of dramatic rhetoric swirling around this market right now, but there’s pieces here that can be part of the solution long term, and there might be some pieces here who would be useful to keep around for a few more years while the team transitions.
More than anything, if the Leafs do a full reset (Phaneuf and Kessel out the door, along with the rest of the usual candidates), this is the reality: Committing hard to years of drafting and development is never as glamorous as it sounds. Short of a miracle that gets the Leafs Connor McDavid and having him jump into the lineup next season – instantly transforming a team like only a generational talent like a Crosby can, and even then… – this is going to be arduous and improvement/hope is not always going to be readily apparent.
