Toronto Maple Leafs sign Frederik Andersen to five-year, $5 million AAV contract extension

The Toronto Maple Leafs have moved quickly to sign new goaltending acquisition Frederik Andersen to a five-year contract extension worth $25 million.

The extension buys four years of unrestricted free agency eligibility.

This will be a hotly debated move in the days and months to come. The Leafs have acquired a goaltender with just 125 games of career experience – albeit with promising numbers that rank him top 20 in the league since 2013-14 (minimum 90 games played) – at the price of two top 60 picks before signing him long term at a price of $5 million per year.

It’s certainly a confidently aggressive move, one that suggests not just that the Leafs like Andersen’s potential to become a good year-in, year-out starter, but that they’re sold on it enough already to lock him down as their guy of the future as the team moves toward their (hypothetical) competitive window.

There is plenty to like about Andersen’s size (6’4, 218) and short(ish) history in the League. He checks all the boxes for what you want in a starter in today’s NHL. He’s been consistent over three seasons in the NHL and competently carried the bulk of the workload for Anaheim last season over 54 games. The fact that his workload decreased slightly in 2015-16 was more to do with a few injuries and John Gibson’s promise than it does with Andersen taking a step back, and he wrestled the starter’s position back from the game-one starter with some great playoff performances this past Spring. His numbers were, in fact, improved over the year previous (.914 to .919).

Here is how his numbers stack up league wide since he entered the league in 2013-14, minimum 90 games played:

Player	Tm	Age	From	To	Active	GP	GS	W	L	T/O	GA	SA	SV	SV%
Carey Price	MTL	27	2013	2016	3	137	137	88	38	11	288	4146	3858	0.931
Cory Schneider	NJD	28	2013	2016	3	172	169	69	71	27	358	4686	4328	0.924
Cam Talbot	TOT	27	2013	2016	3	113	106	54	42	10	247	3246	2999	0.924
Brian Elliott	STL	29	2013	2016	3	118	108	67	28	11	227	2944	2717	0.923
Ben Bishop	TBL	28	2013	2016	3	186	182	112	48	16	392	5050	4658	0.922
Corey Crawford	CHI	30	2013	2016	3	174	171	99	54	20	385	4912	4527	0.922
Tuukka Rask	BOS	27	2013	2016	3	192	187	101	58	27	428	5506	5078	0.922
Henrik Lundqvist	NYR	32	2013	2016	3	174	172	98	58	15	403	5083	4680	0.921
Roberto Luongo	TOT	35	2013	2016	3	179	177	88	61	25	408	5133	4725	0.921
Steve Mason	PHI	26	2013	2016	3	166	161	74	55	28	385	4843	4458	0.921
Semyon Varlamov	COL	26	2013	2016	3	177	174	96	59	17	435	5518	5083	0.921
Braden Holtby	WSH	25	2013	2016	3	187	183	112	44	21	424	5321	4897	0.92
Petr Mrazek	DET	22	2013	2016	3	92	81	45	29	8	191	2394	2203	0.92
Marc-Andre Fleury	PIT	30	2013	2016	3	186	186	108	55	20	428	5270	4842	0.919
Martin Jones	TOT	25	2013	2016	3	99	94	53	34	6	205	2541	2336	0.919
Frederik Andersen	ANA	25	2013	2016	3	125	114	77	26	12	271	3305	3034	0.918
Jake Allen	STL	25	2014	2016	2	84	76	48	22	7	180	2169	1989	0.917
Sergei Bobrovsky	CBJ	26	2013	2016	3	146	143	77	56	9	362	4380	4018	0.917
Jaroslav Halak	TOT	29	2013	2016	3	147	145	85	43	15	334	4042	3708	0.917
Jonathan Quick	LAK	29	2013	2016	3	189	188	103	62	22	405	4899	4494	0.917
Craig Anderson	OTT	33	2013	2016	3	148	147	70	52	21	398	4729	4331	0.916
Devan Dubnyk	TOT	28	2013	2016	3	159	152	79	58	13	368	4399	4031	0.916
Ryan Miller	TOT	34	2013	2016	3	155	155	71	69	14	398	4717	4319	0.916
Jonathan Bernier	TOR	26	2013	2016	3	151	140	59	68	17	393	4636	4243	0.915
Chad Johnson	TOT	28	2013	2016	3	91	80	47	28	8	209	2466	2257	0.915

We do know, however, that it’s awfully hard to project goalies without a sizeable body of work to go on, and that’s especially the case when you take one from a good team with a deep defence group and transplant him onto a worse team (in the immediate term) with holes on the blueline.

If the term and salary raised a few eyebrows, there’s also the question of acquisition cost. The fact that it’s technically the first round pick — 30th overall — instead of the second round pick — 31st overall — should mean nothing to anybody. And this is important to keep in mind:

For those saying TOR price on Andersen was extremely high, no one would have batted an eye if Leafs used 30th pick to take 18 yr old G…

— Bob McKenzie (@TSNBobMcKenzie) June 20, 2016

Expected value of the picks + time value in terms of delay in asset arriving in the NHL is relevant to all of this.

— Stephen Burtch (@SteveBurtch) June 20, 2016

Andersen plays for the team next year. When you factor in how far away a 30th pick/2nd rounder are from the NHL – that matters.

— Stephen Burtch (@SteveBurtch) June 20, 2016

For the reasons stated in the above tweets, there’s more reason to be concerned with the term of the contract the Leafs immediately handed Andersen than the acquisition cost. That said, two top 60 picks for an RFA goaltender in a year when we were told it would be a buyers market to the extreme for goaltenders – especially with the expansion draft looming for next June, leading some to think a bargain buy was realistic – is probably a little more than most thought the Leafs would have to give up for Andersen. No one will care in the slightest about two 30-60th overall picks if the Leafs, a team replete with draft picks, have acquired a quality NHL goaltender here. The bigger question mark is that the Leafs have contractually committed to Andersen like he’s the one, even though it’s hard to confidently declare that to be the case based on what we know today.

For what it’s worth, while their trajectories in the most recent season past are significantly different and that of course matters, Jonathan Bernier stacks up with a .915 compared to Andersen’s .918 since 2013.

It’s certainly an aggressive move at a position that was in major need of addressing for the organization going forward. Have your say below.