Toronto Maple Leafs (8-8-4, 24th in NHL) vs. Washington Capitals (13-5-2, 4th in NHL)
Puck drop: 7:00 p.m. EST
Arena: Air Canada Centre
Watch: CBC
Game Day Notes
– The disparity between the Leafs‘ road and home records has been talked about often. With the shootout loss to New Jersey, the Leafs have just one win in 11 games on the road compared to seven wins in nine at home. There is definitely something to be said for the effect of Babcock having control over the matchups at home, especially when the team is so young. But it’s also worth pointing out that the Leafs have faced their biggest challenges in terms of strength of opponents on the road — Montreal (x2), Pittsburgh and Chicago, against whom they have collected just one of a possible eight points.
Beating Florida twice at home isn’t an easy feat, but there’s no denying they aren’t the same Panthers team from last year as of yet (they’ve dealt with injuries and currently sit 19th in the NHL). Past home meetings against dominant teams from the last four or five years have yielded the following results this season: a 7-0 loss to LA and a 7-3 loss to Tampa Bay (those are the Leafs‘ two losses at home).
The Leafs will welcome one of the league’s premiere teams to the Air Canada Centre tonight. From a competitive standpoint, the Leafs need to take pride in ensuring an elite opponent doesn’t come in and drop a touchdown on them at home on Hockey Night in Canada.
– Interesting enough, while they’re currently fourth in the NHL in points, the Capitals are scoring at a 2.75 goals per game rate (11th in the league) and converting on just 16.7% of their powerplays (T-17th). That’s not to suggest a team with a top six of Alex Ovechkin – Evgeny Kuznetsov – Andre Burakovsky / Marcus Johansson – Nicklas Backstrom – Justin Williams is any less dangerous (or that their top PP unit with Ovechkin, Backstrom, Kuznetsov and Williams is any less scary), but both of those figures are uncharacteristically low for a team that has consistently finished top five in those categories over the past several years. They’re bound to improve and the best way the Leafs can ensure it doesn’t start tonight is by staying out of the penalty box.
– The Capitals are playing in the second half of a back-to-back having beaten Buffalo 3-1 last night. Unfortunately for the Leafs, Braden Holtby got the night off last night and will therefore start this evening, although it might not be a major disadvantage considering backup Phillipp Grubauer has been excellent in his five starts this season (3-1-1, .936 save percentage).
– With the Leafs second last in shots against and fourth from the bottom in goals against after 20 games, Mike Babcock commented on the state of the Leafs defence following today’s morning skate: “We need Rielly to be our number-one guy every night. We need him to be very good for us. That’s not racing around the rink. That’s playing without the puck and being a real good player. We need that to happen. We need the growth of Zaitsev to continue to take place. I think Gardiner has been excellent throughout this last while. Someone is going to have to decide who wants to be five and who wants to be six, or who wants to be four, five and six. We’ve got to get that all figured out. It’s up to them.”
– More Babcock on the state of things after 20 games: “Off the start, the league’s loose. It’s gotten tighter already. The attention to detail is a must because the games are that tight…. You can’t give up goals and win. This thing with getting six or four a night and you’re going to win like that — not going to happen. You’ve got to learn to play well without the puck and you’ve got to learn to play heavy in the offensive zone and spend time in there or you’re spending too much in your own zone.”
“This next 20 is going to tell us a lot about our team. We’ve got to be in the hunt after the next 20.”
Matchup Stats
Statistics courtesy of SportingCharts.com
| Stat | Was | Tor |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 28 | 20 |
| Record % | 0.7 | 0.5 |
| Home Winning % | 0.727 | 0.7 |
| Away Winning % | 0.667 | 0.3 |
| Shootout Winning % | 0 | 0 |
| Goal Differential Per Game | 0.6 | -0.15 |
| Shot Differential Per Game | 2.7 | -1.05 |
| Hits Per Game | 19.2 | 26.5 |
| PIM Per Game | 7.9 | 11.5 |
| Opponent PIM Per Game | 8.8 | 12.9 |
| Goals Per Game | 2.75 | 3.1 |
| Even Strength Goals Per Game | 2.15 | 2.45 |
| Power Play Goals Per Game | 0.5 | 0.6 |
| Shots Per Game | 30 | 32.2 |
| Shots Per Goal | 10.9 | 10.4 |
| Team Shooting % | 9.20% | 9.60% |
| Power Play % | 16.70% | 21.10% |
| Goals Against Per Game | 2.15 | 3.25 |
| ES Goals Against Per Game | 1.55 | 2.6 |
| PP Goals Against Per Game | 0.55 | 0.55 |
| Shots Against Per Game | 27.3 | 33.2 |
| Shots Against Per Goal | 12.7 | 10.22 |
| Opp. Team Shooting % | 7.90% | 9.80% |
| Penalty Kill % | 82.80% | 82.00% |
| Save % | 0.921 | 0.902 |
| Goals Against Average | 2.13 | 3.22 |
| Shutouts | 2 | 0 |
| Opponent Save % | 0.908 | 0.904 |
| Opponent Goals Against Average | 2.73 | 3.07 |
| Opponent Shutouts | 1 | 1 |
Toronto Maple Leafs Projected Lines
Forwards
Nikita Soshnikov – Nazem Kadri – Leo Komarov
van Riemsdyk – Tyler Bozak – Mitch Marner
Zach Hyman – Auston Matthews – Connor Brown
Matt Martin – Ben Smith – Peter Holland
Defencemen
Morgan Rielly – Nikita Zaitsev
Jake Gardiner – Connor Carrick
Matt Hunwick – Roman Polak
Injured: William Nylander
Scratched: Martin Marincin, Frank Corrado
Goaltenders
Starter: Frederik Andersen (Confirmed)
Backup: Jhonas Enroth
Washington Capitals Projected Lines
Forwards
Alex Ovechkin – Evgeny Kuznetsov – Andre Burakovsky
Marcus Johansson – Nicklas Backstrom – Justin Williams
Zachary Sanford – Jay Beagle – Tom Wilson
Daniel Winnik – Lars Eller – Brett Connolly
Defencemen
Karl Alzner – Matt Niskanen
Dmitri Orlov – John Carlson
Nate Schmidt – Brooks Orpik
Goaltenders
Starter: Braden Holtby
Backup: Phillipp Grubauer
