Toronto Maple Leafs (32-23-15, 16th in NHL) vs. Boston Bruins (38-27-6, 13th in NHL)
Puck drop: 7:30 p.m. EST
Arena: Air Canada Center
Watch: TSN4
Game Day Notes
– The Maple Leafs enter the game 3-0-0 in the season series with the Bruins, outscoring Boston 14-7 despite getting outshot 99-70 and outpossessed 60:40.
Frederik Andersen posted a .929 save percentage over those three wins; the combination of Tuukka Rask, Anton Khudobin and Zane McIntyre allowed 13 goals on 69 shots, with Rask (tonight’s starter) allowing seven on 33.
– The Bruins are 13-6-0 since the All-Star Break, enter winners of seven of their last 10 and are 12-4-0 since Bruce Cassidy assumed interim head coaching duties. The Bruins have scored 62 goals in the 16 games (3.9 per) since Cassidy took over the bench, making them the highest scoring team since February 7. Boston was scoring just 2.6 goals-per-game under Claude Julien prior to his dismissal.
– In addition to the coaching change, another thing worth mentioning in regards to the Bruins’ turnaround is the rest factor. The Leafs and Bruins are working their way through far different second-half schedules. After a busy first half of the campaign, the Bruins have played just 18 games since February 1st, the fewest in the NHL. The Leafs have played 22 games since February 1 and will finish with 12 games in the final 21 days of the season.
– After playing 644 of his 825 even strength minutes alongside Jake Gardiner prior to his Feb. 21 injury, Connor Carrick will return to the lineup and start next to Morgan Rielly tonight. The two have played 62 minutes together at 5v5, posting a 54.3% Corsi For in that small sample.
“They’re similar players in what their strengths are,” said Carrick. “Maybe subtle differences in how they get things done around the ice.”
Carrick is anticipating a playoff-like tempo and atmosphere when puck drops tonight, adding to the challenge of returning to the lineup after a 15-game layoff.
“It’s going to be a heated game. Very playoff-like. It’s probably at an 110% pace of what the game was played at when I was injured.”
In recent games, Mike Babcock has frequently rotated Roman Polak — and occasionally Matt Hunwick — onto Morgan Rielly’s right side in the place of Alexey Marchenko (a healthy scratch tonight). Babcock may choose to ease Carrick back into game action, depending on how he looks early.
“I’m going to try to bring a physical element,” said Carrick. “Shoot pucks, move pucks. Bother some people out there and be hard to play against, fun to play with. The team is going to be playing fast, trying to execute quickly.
“I think the battle is to get in that flow of the game, keep the rhythm. Stay out of your own head and just play hockey. Playing with a guy like Morgan will help do that. No excuses, I expect a good game out of myself.”
– Tyler Bozak and Nazem Kadri split time against Patrice Bergeron and his line in the teams’ last two meetings, both on the road. The Bruins have recently been running Marchand-Bergeron and Krejci-Pastrnak as duos on separate lines, making for a tough matchup challenge. Based on how Mike Babcock handled the Toews and Kane dual threat on Saturday, Nazem Kadri will likely take the brunt of the Bergeron matchup while Brian Boyle will match up against Krejci a fair bit, with Bozak and Auston Matthews getting spot duty/softer minutes. But we’ll see what Babcock has planned.
On defence, Morgan Rielly and Roman Polak took on the Toews matchup for the most part while Nikita Zaitsev and Jake Gardiner handled the Kane line. Babcock hinted after the morning skate that he anticipates a different type of challenge — i.e. a heavier line with more of a net-front presence — for Zaitsev and Gardiner versus Boston compared to what they faced against the Kane line on Saturday:
Did you like how Gardiner and Zaitsev handled Kane the other night?
Babcock: Yeah. A different kind of matchup. Not heavy guys, without Anisimov there. They didn’t have anybody at the net. When you have someone at the net, it takes one defender away. When you don’t have anybody at the net, it’s easy for the goaltender and you don’t ever take a defender. So they were easier for us to play against that way.
– William Nylander enters the game riding a seven-game points streak, one off of the highest mark posted by a Leaf this season (Auston Matthews’ eight-game streak lasted from December 19 to January 6). Nylander has points in nine of his last 10 games and 20 points in his last 21 — a streak that started with a hat trick against these Boston Bruins in early February.
– Brad Marchand enters the game as the NHL’s most productive player in the year 2017 with a ridiculous 27 goals and 48 points in 32 games. Look. Out.
– If the Leafs manage to complete the sweep of the season series with a regulation win tonight, they’ll move within a point of Boston for third in the division with a game in hand. A regulation win would improve the Leafs‘ playoff odds (currently 63.5%) by 9.3%, while a regulation loss would see them drop 13.3%.
Neither the Lightning or the Islanders — the two teams just behind them in the wildcard race — are in action tonight.
Matchup Stats
Statistics courtesy of SportingCharts.com
| Stat | Bos | Tor |
|---|---|---|
| GP | 71 | 70 |
| Points | 82 | 79 |
ROW | 36 | 31 |
| Record % | 0.577 | 0.564 |
| Home Winning % | 0.563 | 0.603 |
| Away Winning % | 0.568 | 0.514 |
| Shootout Winning % | 0.5 | 0.111 |
| Goal Differential Per Game | 0.24 | 0.16 |
| Shot Differential Per Game | 7.23 | -0.51 |
| Hits Per Game | 21.4 | 24.3 |
| PIM Per Game | 10 | 9.7 |
| Opponent PIM Per Game | 9.7 | 9.9 |
| Goals Per Game | 2.86 | 3.01 |
| Even Strength Goals Per Game | 2.1 | 2.24 |
| Power Play Goals Per Game | 0.63 | 0.7 |
| Shots Per Game | 33.8 | 32.3 |
| Shots Per Goal | 11.8 | 10.7 |
| Team Shooting % | 0.085 | 0.093 |
| Power Play % | 0.208 | 0.236 |
| Goals Against Per Game | 2.62 | 2.86 |
| ES Goals Against Per Game | 2.07 | 2.26 |
| PP Goals Against Per Game | 0.46 | 0.53 |
| Shots Against Per Game | 26.58 | 32.8 |
| Shots Against Per Goal | 10.15 | 11.48 |
| Opp. Team Shooting % | 0.099 | 0.087 |
| Penalty Kill % | 0.854 | 0.833 |
| Save % | 0.901 | 0.913 |
| Goals Against Average | 2.6 | 2.81 |
| Shutouts | 6 | 5 |
| Opponent Save % | 0.915 | 0.907 |
| Opponent Goals Against Average | 2.83 | 2.96 |
| Opponent Shutouts | 5 | 2 |
Toronto Maple Leafs Projected Lines
Forwards
Leo Komarov – Nazem Kadri – Connor Brown
Zach Hyman – Auston Matthews – William Nylander
James van Riemsdyk – Tyler Bozak – Mitchell Marner
Matt Martin – Brian Boyle – Nikita Soshnikov
Defencemen
Morgan Rielly – Connor Carrick
Jake Gardiner – Nikita Zaitsev
Matt Hunwick – Roman Polak
Goaltenders
Starter: Frederik Andersen (28-15-14, 2.67, 0.918)
Backup: Curtis McElhinney
Scratched: Alexey Marchenko, Ben Smith, Martin Marincin, Josh Leivo, Eric Fehr
Boston Bruins Projected Lines
Forwards
Brad Marchand – Patrice Bergeron – David Backes
Matt Beleskey – David Krejci – David Pastrnak
Frank Vatrano – Ryan Spooner – Drew Stafford
Dominic Moore – Riley Nash – Noel Acciari
Defencemen
Zdeno Chara – Brandon Carlo
Torey Krug – Adam McQuaid
Colin Miller – Kevan Miller
Goaltenders
Starter: Tuukka Rask (33-17-4, 2.32, 0.912)
Backup: Anton Khudobin
Scratched: Jimmy Hayes
Injured: Tim Schaller
Morning Skate: Mike Babcock
Mike Babcock – Morning Skate – Leafs vs. Bruins https://t.co/gGL9MsjirR
— Maple Leafs Hotstove (@LeafsNews) March 20, 2017
