The Maple Leafs have made it official: Nikita Zaitsev has signed a seven-year extension worth $4.5 million AAV.
A seven-year contract buys five years worth of UFA eligibility and locks Zaitsev up until he’s 32 years old.
The 25-year-old is 82 games into his NHL career after crossing over from the KHL to sign a one-year entry-level contract with the Leafs. He was quickly placed into a top-pairing role, averaging 22+ minutes per game since the start of the year.
Zaitsev accumulated four goals and 36 points this season, including one goal and 11 assists on the power play, where he averaged 2:00 per game (second among Leafs defencemen behind Jake Gardiner’s 2:33). Zaitsev also averaged 1:43 a night on the penalty kill. He ranked tied for 38th among NHL defencemen in overall points and 38th in the league in even strength points.
He has produced top-40 offensive numbers with some of the tougher usage among defencemen around and above him in point scoring (quality of competition on the y-axis, zone start ratio on the x-axis):
Playing against top competition on the team’s first pair alongside Morgan Rielly for most of the season, Zaitsev and Rielly managed a competent 49% share of the shot attempts together in 810 even strength minutes but just a 40.5% Goals For Percentage. A tough month and a half – coinciding with Morgan Rielly’s ankle injury – saw Zaitsev post a -18 plus/minus in 21 games between the start of February and the middle of March, spelling the end of the pairing for the year.
After Babcock switched the pairings up following a 7-2 blowout loss to Florida on March 14th, Zaitsev largely remained in top-matchup situations alongside Jake Gardiner. The two saw much better results in terms of keeping goals out of their net with a 52.2% GF in 315:10 of even strength ice time.
Zaitsev’s four playoff appearances after sustaining a concussion in the last game of the regular season were less than stellar, but it seemed as though he shouldn’t have been back on the ice that soon and it would be unfair to hold it against him.
Seven years of term
As impressive as Zaitsev’s play was out of the gate considering he was brand new to the NHL — the World Cup came at a good time, giving Zaitsev an opportunity to adjust to the rink size in his home arena as well as the level of competition on Russia’s top pair — the length of this deal suggests the Leafs expect continued growth as Zaitsev fully adjusts to the league. The Leafs appear to be thinking that Zaitsev could have more to give going forward and that the price was likely to go up as the sample size grew (Of note: Zaitsev finished the year with seven points in 12 games).
There is no doubting that Zaitsev has proven enough with his play through 82 games to justify a significant contract. It also makes sense to establish cost certainty at a fair price knowing the Leafs’ cap outlook for 2019 and beyond. Had the Leafs bridged Zaitsev until the end of the 2018-19 season, they’d likely be in the position of signing him to a higher AAV at a time when Marner, Matthews and Nylander are all beginning their second contracts.
There aren’t any tidy comparables for a seven-year contract handed out to a 25-year-old RFA defenceman with less than a full season of NHL experience. CapFriendly’s contract comparison tool spits out names like Roman Josi, Oscar Klefbom and John Klingberg on the basis of term and AAV, but all three were signed in a different cap environment, were multiple years younger than Zaitsev when they signed, and their teams were buying fewer UFA seasons. There were also larger sample sizes to go on with all of those players.
If Zaitsev is a roughly 40-point, top-four defenceman for the majority of this contract, the Leafs will be happy they managed to buy five of his UFA years at $4.5 million. Zaitsev has a skill set and effortless skating stride that should age well. Turning 26 next October, he’s got three or four prime seasons ahead. We also know the Leafs are a big fan of Zaitsev’s intangibles; he adjusted quickly to North American life, he has been called one of their hardest workers in practice and in the gym (he’s a student of Gary Roberts, FWIW) by Mike Babcock, and Babcock loves the competitiveness he brings game-to-game.
On the other hand, if Zaitsev is a solid 30-point second pairing guy for a few years whose numbers stagnate and then fall off, the Leafs will regret having three 30-plus age seasons on their books at $4.5 million. While he seemingly has more to give than the one power play goal in his rookie year, it’s also possible that Zaitsev’s power play time is reduced from its current 2:00 per game as the Leafs build up their blue line. Knowing they hold the hammer in the negotiations given Zaitsev’s RFA status, a deal could’ve been hashed out that would’ve mitigated some of that risk, although it would’ve cost the Leafs a little more in average annual salary.
In the big picture, it goes without saying that the Leafs defence is going to need an upgrade before this franchise can consider itself a legitimate Stanley Cup contender. The Leaf blue line is in need of a top-pair talent to take the team where it wants to go (i.e., sustained contention for a five-to-ten year period). With Zaitsev coming in at $4.5 million, the Leafs are allotting $13.25 million to Gardiner, Rielly and Zaistev. If an NHL club can reasonably spend around $20 million on a good top-four, that would leave about $7 million (keeping in mind Gardiner will get a raise in 2019) to fill it out the blue line core with one more major piece.
Where that defenceman comes from is the biggest question mark going forward for this management regime. But, with today’s news, the long-term picture of the Leafs blue line became a little bit clearer.
Nikita Zaitsev Contract Details
| SEASON | CLAUSE | CAP HIT | AAV | S. BONUSES | P. BONUSES | NHL SALARY | MINORS SALARY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017-18 | $4,500,000 | $4,500,000 | $3,000,000 | $0 | $4,500,000 | $4,500,000 | |
| 2018-19 | $4,500,000 | $4,500,000 | $3,000,000 | $0 | $4,500,000 | $4,500,000 | |
| 2019-20 | Modified NTC | $4,500,000 | $4,500,000 | $3,000,000 | $0 | $4,500,000 | $4,500,000 |
| 2020-21 | Modified NTC | $4,500,000 | $4,500,000 | $0 | $0 | $4,500,000 | $4,500,000 |
| 2021-22 | Modified NTC | $4,500,000 | $4,500,000 | $0 | $0 | $4,500,000 | $4,500,000 |
| 2022-23 | Modified NTC | $4,500,000 | $4,500,000 | $2,000,000 | $0 | $4,500,000 | $4,500,000 |
| 2023-24 | Modified NTC | $4,500,000 | $4,500,000 | $2,000,000 | $0 | $4,500,000 | $4,500,000 |
First Thoughts
A With Or Without You analysis of his impact on his teammates in terms of goals share and shot attempts this season does not reflect all too kindly on Zaitsev. It would’ve been nice to wait and see how Zaitsev’s possession numbers track next year with a year of North American experience under his belt.
That wasn’t a luxury the Leafs had available to them, nor was this a standard RFA negotiation. Zaitsev crossed over the pond and took a significant haircut on an ELC to prove he could play in the NHL. He also had big-money offers from the KHL to return home in an Olympic year (which the NHL will not be participating in).
In terms of right-handed defencemen who can play in your top four, play in all situations, and put up 35+ points, there are no options in the FA pool, or that can easily be acquired in the trade market, to replace Zaitsev.
The end goal with Zaitsev should be to have him play second pairing against easier competition and in more offensive situations. Zaitsev posting top-40 even-strength production, given his usage, is a big credit to him. The Leafs asked a tonne of a first-year player because their other option was playing Matt Hunwick on the right side next to Rielly like they did last year, with terrible results.
On top of that, Zaitsev played a significant amount on both sides of special teams. The Leafs should hopefully be able to lighten the load on Zaitsev as the contract progresses by adding to their defensive core.
Could the Leafs have talked Zaitsev’s party down to four or five years instead of seven? That’s what I’m left wondering, as it could’ve mitigated some of the risk here. However, there are two sides to a negotiation and we don’t know how much the AAV would’ve increased on a four or five-year deal.
