Analysis

Analysis

In-depth analysis of the Toronto Maple Leafs from the Leading Leafs-centric website.

4

After playing a wild game with the Rangers last night, tonight's game, the makeup for the postponement from the 22nd, was another exciting and goal-filled affair. Unlike that game, though, the Leafs didn't have a major lull, as even as they fell behind three times in the first twenty-five minutes, the chances stayed pretty much even, and Toronto went into the final period even in chances and ahead on the scoreboard. While Ottawa did have the better of the third, as they chased the Leaf lead, James Reimer again stood strong to secure back-to-back wins for Toronto. You can see that...

2

The Leafs had another dismal start, falling behind in the first minute, but ended up on top of a wild opening period, up 3-2 and even in ES close chances. The second looked like it could be a serious problem for Toronto; they were outclassed in chances, but they managed to surrender only a single goal, leaving the teams level heading to the final 20 minutes. After Rick Nash put the Rangers ahead early in the third, the Leafs managed a pair of goals to get back ahead, and then did a very good defensive job, not allowing the Rangers...

Carter Ashton

8

With the announcement yesterday afternoon that Maple Leafs winger Carter Ashton has been suspended for violation of the NHL/NHLPA Performance Enhancing Substances Program as a result of his use of a PED containing inhaler, many Leafs fans are wondering what impact this will have on the Toronto Maple Leafs. Article 47.7(a)(i) provides that a first positive test will result in a 20 game suspension without pay. So what does this mean for the Leafs in terms of salary cap? According to Article 50.10(c): Player Salary and Bonuses that are not paid to such Player shall not count against a Club's Upper Limit...

4

The Leafs came out flat in Arizona, with a couple of bad giveaways and an unlucky bounce seeing them fall behind 3-0. Toronto didn't generate a single ES chance until just before the halfway point of the game. They improved in the second half, but still ended up out-chanced pretty decisively. They managed a pair of powerplay goals, but there wasn't much generated at ES down the stretch, even while they were chasing the one goal lead in the last few minutes. The Leafs never got back to ES Close after the early part of the game, and while they...

401

A 3-0 week quieted the “blow it up” talk in Toronto, but it will inevitably rear its ugly head again. Rebuilding the team entirely would be the wrong call though. Shedding some big contracts, however, may not be. If we use the Pittsburgh Penguins as an example, tanking is a long and arduous process. Pittsburgh drafted Sidney Crosby first overall in 2005, which many people associate with the start of the rebuild. If drafting first overall is start of a rebuild, their rebuild really started in 2003 when they drafted Marc Andre Fleury with the top pick. They ended up winning the Cup in 2009, drafting...

Phil Kessel

4

The Leafs earned a second straight win against a short-handed Blue Jackets team, getting some opportunistic third period goals to secure the victory. The first two periods were fairly close in chances until the Leafs scored their second goal, after which a couple of strong shifts saw them open a gap in chances. While Toronto managed only two shots on goal, both goals, in the third, they were even in chances, a sign of a very good defensive road effort. This was the lowest overall chance game the Leafs have played this year; they were content to defend their lead after...

7

After getting a lot of media heat from Saturday night's loss, the Leafs had the perfect response. They played what was, by the numbers, easily the most dominant single performance from a Leaf team in a long time, as they allowed Buffalo just ten shots on net, and had over 80% of the chances at even strength. Through most of two periods, they were playing with fire a little, not having turned the domination into any goals, but in the third Buffalo ended up paying for their struggles, and the Leafs were able to win easily. These numbers are nuts; to...

352

When Kyle Dubas was named GM of the Sault Ste. Marie Greyhounds, one of the first things he did was buy every member of the front office a copy of Jonah Keri’s 'The Extra 2%.' For those of you who have not read the book, it archives the Tampa Bay Rays rise to prominence after a near decade of failure. Baseball Prospectus wrote a review summarizing the plot: The book’s title refers to Rays owner Stuart Sternberg’s philosophy that rather than attempt to lap the field—an unrealistic goal, given the team’s financial realities and the challenge posed by sharing a division with baseball’s...

5

When I had the chance to sit down and watch this game, having missed it live, I expected a Leaf performance quite a bit worse than what I ended up seeing. Boston had a territorial edge, but for the most part didn't generate much in the early part of the game. The Leafs actually led in chances after two periods, despite being behind 2-0. However,  Toronto wasn't good in the third period, and two quick goals saw a game that was still within reach break open, with Bernier pulled. That first period was quiet in terms of chances, and the Leafs were unfortunate...

409

Since the 2014-2015 season began, I have been tracking my own internal metrics on Leafs games. I thought I’d take the time to explain what it is I’m keeping record of and what I am hoping to accomplish by doing so. If you do not care and just want to read notes, quotes and ‘5 Things I think I’d Do,’ just scroll down and skip this part; otherwise, read on to learn more about what we are doing here at MLHS to take things (hopefully) to the next level. Corey Sznajder’s zone entry and exit work was released over the summer,...

56

This was a bit of an odd game, scoring chance wise. The Maple Leafs had a superior possession performance to what they managed Friday night, but -- particularly in the third period -- they weren't able to turn that possession into scoring chances, as they generated few shots from the 'home plate' area. Jonas Gustavsson had to make saves down the stretch, but wasn't tested nearly as stringently as Jonathan  Bernier was. This shows in the chances, as the Leafs were beaten by a similar margin to Friday night's game, despite the fact it was a better game from Toronto. It was...

286

After getting a little momentum, winning two straight games and winning the chance count against Colorado, the Maple Leafs had a disappointing return to form on the first night of a back to back versus Detroit. After an uneventful first half of the opening period, Detroit took over. Toronto responded well in the second, and despite allowing another goal, were the better team in terms of scoring chances for the first two-thirds of the period. However, in the next 20 minutes, stretching over the period break, Detroit outchanced them 10-2 at ES, opening up a bigger lead and crushing the Leafs' hopes...

4

For the first time this year, the Leafs were clearly the superior team in Tuesday's game against Colorado. They dominated the ES chances, especially in an effective third period, when they chased down an Avalanche lead and threatened to win in regulation before Kessel settled the game with a piece of overtime magic. There's a lot of positives to take from this game. Edit: Since this is my first post here at MLHS, I should add a little background. I'm tracking scoring chances using the relatively common 'home plate' approach, as described at In Lou We Trust, among other places. Scoring...

576

The Maple Leafs were faced with a unique opportunity to keep their top prospect in Toronto playing in the AHL, yet they elected to send him back to Sweden instead. Since 2005, 14 players drafted in the top 10 have played their draft season across the pond somewhere in Europe or Russia. There is no exact science to developing prospects and every individual person is, of course, unique. That said, odds are that some AHL time will occur, even if only for a handful of games before graduating to the NHL, provided Nylander becomes the player they hope he can be. Nylander...

Jake Gardiner

82

In my last post, I looked at which Maple Leaf players are producing their fair share of the offense. In the comments to that post, a few readers wanted me to take a look at the players defensively to see who is performing up to par in that aspect of the game. Today, I'll look at the defensive side of the game in conjunction with their offensive performance. It may be worth while to go back and read it now if you haven't yet read the previous article, but I'll remind you of the process below:  If you are not yet aware,...

47

Dion Phaneuf's effectiveness always seems to be a popular matter of debate in the world of hockey. This shouldn't surprise anyone when citing a player who captains an NHL team in a hockey-crazed market like Toronto while carrying a beefy cap hit of $7,000,000 per annum. Last season, Dion was subject to incredibly difficult usage at the hands of head coach Randy Carlyle. His teammate Corsi For percentage of 43.4% was the 16th lowest among all defensemen since 2007-08, while his offensive zone start percentage of 37.7% ranks lower than all but 23 blueliners in the Behind the Net era....

15

If you are not yet aware, I have recently launched a new hockey statistics website at Puckalytics.com. Long-term this will be the replacement for stats.hockeyanalysis.com, but not all features are implemented yet; for now, both will remain operational. There are some new statistics available at Puckalytics.com and one of those features is the ability to find the percentage of a team's overall statistic that the player was on the ice for. I call these '% of Team Stats' and they can be found here. To explain exactly what these statistics mean, let's look at % of Team TOI. Last season, Ryan Suter...

38

In May of 2013, I wrote an article on Dion Phaneuf and his play when the team is leading vs when they are trailing. It presented a pretty compelling case that Phaneuf is a significantly better player when the Leafs are trailing, a situation in which he is given a more offensive role. Today I will update that article while looking at some new statistics. Background I recently posted an article on how to conduct a WOWY analysis and in it I introduced the concept of TM (short for Team Mate) statistics. To summarize, TM statistics are like a combined WOWY and are a...

27

As we continue to wait for Stephane Robidas to make his on-ice debut in the blue and white, it makes sense to have a look at what we can expect from the experienced blueliner. Maple Leafs management appears to have high hopes that he can bring stability playing alongside one of their two young defenders, Morgan Rielly or Jake Gardiner. His veteran status and leadership will likely be all the more important to management now that injuries will prevent Henrik Tallinder from making the team and may prevent Cody Franson from playing  to start the season (as of this writing,...

Toronto Maple Leafs v Boston Bruins - Game Two

11

My first post here at MLHS was an Introduction to Advanced Hockey Statistics, which I recommend you go read if you have not done so yet. In it I introduced the concept of WOWY statistics and WOWY analysis in player evaluation. In this post I am going to look into this deeper with examples and explain where and how you can get the data yourself. What are WOWY statistics? WOWY stands for With or Without You and essentially looks at pairs of players and how they perform together and how they perform apart. WOWY statistics typically consists of three groups for every...