Monday, March 30, 2015
Analysis

Analysis

In-depth analysis of the Toronto Maple Leafs from the Leading Leafs-centric website.

665

James Mirtle wrote a column on the Leafs' abnormally high shooting percentage yesterday. Given we're at the 10 game mark of the season and the Leafs shooting percentage and save percentage are actually up a significant margin from last season, let's update the numbers for Carlyle's team if we combine this season so far with last season including playoffs. (The Leafs currently lead the league in team shooting percentage at 12.3%, and are fifth in the league in team save percentage with a 0.930). To summarize, because the table text is pretty tiny: Working with a 65-game sample size now,...

412

If you missed part one of this week's Notebook on Morgan Rielly, check it out here. Notes - Thought the JVR goal against Edmonton was a subtle example of the growth in Kessel’s game. If you watch the reply below, he gets knocked down, but keeps his stick on the puck and holds it against the boards to buy time for help. Then, he gets up and keeps battling. That effort and battle wasn’t always evident in Kessel’s game. Against Nashville, he went into the boards with Seth Jones and as they were on a collision course for the puck he...

Morgan Rielly

457

We are only six games into the regular season, but the Leafs are quickly approaching what will be one of their biggest decisions of the season: What to do with Morgan Rielly. Rielly has played four games for the Leafs, so if he continues to play every game the Leafs won’t have to make a decision until October 25th, after a game against the Blue Jackets, at the earliest. He’s had a solid start to his NHL career averaging 17:24 a night, which has pretty well been all at evens as he averages less than a minute of shorthanded (11...

1214

It seems like the Jake Gardiner talk just won’t go away, even though an immediate trade seems extremely unlikely. Elliotte Friedman got the ball rolling on Gardiner rumours early last week in his 30 Thoughts piece, where he wrote: 19. I see Carlyle. I see Jake Gardiner. I hear what they say about each other and think, "Well, 50 per cent of all marriages do end in divorce." On the weekend, the Satellite Hotstove panel discussed how the Leafs were open to listening to offers for Jake Gardiner. Of course, that blew things out of proportion. Here are some of the things we...

331

Only three teams in the preseason had more points than the Leafs (Boston, Washington, Dallas), and you know what’s the best part about that? Nobody really cares. It was only a few years ago that some kids named Bozak, Stalberg, Kadri, and Gustavsson wowed Leafs Nation with a strong preseason and had fans thinking “hey, maybe this team is better than we thought.” We all know how that ended. This preseason though, nobody has really bothered to drum up the Leafs results or tout it as some big accomplishment and momentum boost heading into the season. Maybe it’s because the Clarkson...

636

There are so many different angles to consider when looking at last night's Leafs-Sabres brawl. Where to start? Perhaps the best place is the shift before, when Jamie Devane and Corey Tropp mixed it up with the end result being a predictable Devane win considering the size advantage. The faceoff before they fought, Tropp was clearly asking Devane to go the entire time. By the time the puck dropped, he still kept at it before the big Leaf eventually obliged. I can’t tell you whether it’s right or wrong for Devane to fight a guy in that situation, but if...

534

First off, can I just say how excited I am about this coming season? Last year, I predicted that the Leafs would be a lottery team. I can only think of a handful of times I was happier to be wrong. In many ways, the 2013 Leafs finally defined the four tenets of Brian Burke’s promise – truculence, pugnacity, belligerence, and testosterone. There are few things more gratifying as a fan than to be able to puff out your chest the day after a win and say, this is my team. A shortened season may have saved the Toronto Maple...

482

For the first time in a long time, the Leafs are going into the season with a well-set forward group. The top six is all but guaranteed to be Phil Kessel, Tyler Bozak, Joffrey Lupul, JVR, Nazem Kadri and David Clarkson, comprising a fairly established and proficient group. The bottom six forwards will feature Dave Bolland, Jay McClement, Nikolai Kulemin, and at least one enforcer for sure. Joe Colborne would probably have to be horrific in camp for him not to make the opening twelve at this point, which really leaves just one spot up for grabs between a host...

652

The obvious follow up to the total points draft chart from yesterday is a look at the total games played and games played per draft pick. Results after the jump. - One thing to keep in mind: Teams that have been perennially competitive and choose/prefer to take the slow boil approach to prospect development may have their draft hauls understated in this exercise. It's obviously early returns as far as most of these draft classes go. At the other end of the spectrum, teams that provide ample opportunity to their youth may have theirs inflated (NYI has 25 picks who...

123

After taking a look at the work of MLHS member "xxxnew" on 'point production by round' in the draft, a few of  you expressed an interest in seeing a chart on total points by drafted players for each team. FWIW, I put together the data in a couple of hours this afternoon. Here's how the teams stack up based on the five drafts between 2005-2009. Recent Stanley Cup winners Chicago, Boston, Pittsburgh and Los Angeles are all right near the top. While Pittsburgh has a sizeable edge in points per pick (we all know why that is), Colorado leads the way...

1169

During my interview with Scott Gordon, the Leafs assistant coach said something that caught my attention when he noted: “This year our top six is guys who have had pretty good track records of scoring goals.” The injury to Joffrey Lupul for the majority of the shortened season really put the lineup out of whack. As Grabovski played a shutdown role, the Leafs second scoring line was basically MacArthur-Kadri-Frattin for quite some time until Lupul returned and the line turned into Lupul-Kadri-Kulemin, a unit which no doubt did some serious damage. This summer the Leafs threw big money at...

327

With training camp a little under 3 weeks away, we thought we'd get things started with the MLHS Season Preview Series. Leading up into training camp, our writers will break-down and provide insight into each position. This week, we'll start the series with a look at the Leafs' goaltending duo of James Reimer and Jonathan Bernier. - Next season's tandem of James Reimer and Jonathan Bernier will be a focal point of discussion and debate.  Moreover, the trade for Jonathan Bernier has already driven a wedge between those who a) see Reimer as the Leafs' bonafide number 1 goalie deserving of...

550

Summer has officially entered the dog days in the hockey world and there’s little in the way of new developments to discuss. However, seeing as I was away on vacation for most of July, I wasn’t able to contribute here as much as I normally would so I figure now is as good a time as ever to catch up on some Leafs topics that have been on my mind. Goaltending - It’s pretty clear the Leafs are going to roll with one a 1A and 1B model in net where Reimer and Bernier split starts, which is fine. The only...

1384

Heading into free agency, nearly every Leafs fan knew that Nonis wanted to bring in David Clarkson, considered your prototypical Carlyle guy. Well, I’m sure you all know that Nonis got his man, and at a hefty $5.25 million cap hit for 7 years. There’s been much discussion since the signing about the contract Nonis gave to Clarkson and I don’t particularly want to beat a dead horse. So, without really delving into the subject of whether or not I think he’s worth that money or term, I want to give Leafs fans a look into what Clarkson brings...

1229

Some will argue the Leafs have gotten better over the last few weeks, others will say they’ve gotten worse; the only thing we know for sure is that they’re noticeably different. Out go Mikhail Grabovski, Clarke MacArthur, Leo Komarov, Matt Frattin, Ryan O’Byrne, Mike Kostka, and Ben Scrivens. In come Dave Bolland, David Clarkson, TJ Brennan and Jonathon Bernier (along with a few new Marlies - Colborne? D’Amigo? Blacker? Ashton?) . So what do we make of all this? The best way to look at it is to break it down piece by piece. Forwards: Bozak over Grabovski, Clarkson...

1445

Please give a warm welcome to Taylor Wright, the newest member of the MLHS writing team. Be sure to follow him @taylor_wright. On Sunday at the 2013 NHL Entry Draft, Toronto Maple Leafs GM Dave Nonis acquired centre Dave Bolland from the Stanley Cup-winning Chicago Blackhawks in exchange for picks 51, 117 and a fourth round pick in 2014. You knew that already, I'm guessing. So let's take a look at how Bolland was used in Chicago, how well he performed in his role and what we can expect from him as a Leaf. HOW WAS HE USED? This past season...

1532

The old saying in hockey is that defense wins championships, and defense was the theme of the day for the Leafs yesterday even though they didn’t acquire a single defenseman. For Toronto, the day started off by selecting 6’4 Frederik Gauthier with their 21st overall pick. Gauthier started off the season hot with 10 goals and 20 points in his first 20 games, but he suffered a broken jaw that required surgery and struggled after that offensively, potting only 12 goals in his remaining 50 games. However, his effort was routinely noticeable defensively, as Gauthier worked hard to cut...

1242

The more I think about the Jonathan Bernier trade, the more I realize it was a straight-up judgment call by the Leafs' pro scouts (led by Steve Kasper, this staff includes Mike Penny, Tom Watt and Rob Cowie.. the trade also likely involved a consultation with amateur scout Mike Palmateer). While Bernier has an edge in pedigree based on his draft position, projecting goaltender development can be alchemy and neither Scrivens or Bernier have significant enough sample sizes to their name to really know what either could become. James Reimer's biggest workload in a single season is 37 games,...

2566

The Jonathan Bernier to Toronto speculation was ongoing all week, so it wasn’t a complete surprise when the Leafs acquired him yesterday. What was surprising, considering teams that are in much worse shape in net like the Flyers and Islanders were in on the bidding, is that one of those teams didn't offer big value for a goalie so many are apparently high on. Ultimately, it seems the Leafs were able to offer a package that matched up well with the Kings’ needs. The Leafs gave Los Angeles a good backup goalie and top nine forward who combine to cost...

3

We reviewed Clarke MacArthur the other day here at MLHS. The feedback seemed rather divided on the question of whether to keep or not to keep the pending UFA. Meanwhile, there's no doubting that David Clarkson’s name will only continue to remain attached to the Leafs in rumour circles as we approach free agency and the Toronto native remains without a contract past July 5. With a glut of wing talent already, and Phil Kessel in need a contract extension, there’s no way Dave Nonis should re-sign MacArthur and then also go and sign David Clarkson. It’s not a...