Statistical Analysis

Statistical Analysis

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This was a bit of an odd game, scoring chance wise. The Maple Leafs had a superior possession performance to what they managed Friday night, but -- particularly in the third period -- they weren't able to turn that possession into scoring chances, as they generated few shots from the 'home plate' area. Jonas Gustavsson had to make saves down the stretch, but wasn't tested nearly as stringently as Jonathan  Bernier was. This shows in the chances, as the Leafs were beaten by a similar margin to Friday night's game, despite the fact it was a better game from Toronto. It was...

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After getting a little momentum, winning two straight games and winning the chance count against Colorado, the Maple Leafs had a disappointing return to form on the first night of a back to back versus Detroit. After an uneventful first half of the opening period, Detroit took over. Toronto responded well in the second, and despite allowing another goal, were the better team in terms of scoring chances for the first two-thirds of the period. However, in the next 20 minutes, stretching over the period break, Detroit outchanced them 10-2 at ES, opening up a bigger lead and crushing the Leafs' hopes...

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For the first time this year, the Leafs were clearly the superior team in Tuesday's game against Colorado. They dominated the ES chances, especially in an effective third period, when they chased down an Avalanche lead and threatened to win in regulation before Kessel settled the game with a piece of overtime magic. There's a lot of positives to take from this game. Edit: Since this is my first post here at MLHS, I should add a little background. I'm tracking scoring chances using the relatively common 'home plate' approach, as described at In Lou We Trust, among other places. Scoring...

Jake Gardiner

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In my last post, I looked at which Maple Leaf players are producing their fair share of the offense. In the comments to that post, a few readers wanted me to take a look at the players defensively to see who is performing up to par in that aspect of the game. Today, I'll look at the defensive side of the game in conjunction with their offensive performance. It may be worth while to go back and read it now if you haven't yet read the previous article, but I'll remind you of the process below:  If you are not yet aware,...

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Dion Phaneuf's effectiveness always seems to be a popular matter of debate in the world of hockey. This shouldn't surprise anyone when citing a player who captains an NHL team in a hockey-crazed market like Toronto while carrying a beefy cap hit of $7,000,000 per annum. Last season, Dion was subject to incredibly difficult usage at the hands of head coach Randy Carlyle. His teammate Corsi For percentage of 43.4% was the 16th lowest among all defensemen since 2007-08, while his offensive zone start percentage of 37.7% ranks lower than all but 23 blueliners in the Behind the Net era....

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In May of 2013, I wrote an article on Dion Phaneuf and his play when the team is leading vs when they are trailing. It presented a pretty compelling case that Phaneuf is a significantly better player when the Leafs are trailing, a situation in which he is given a more offensive role. Today I will update that article while looking at some new statistics. Background I recently posted an article on how to conduct a WOWY analysis and in it I introduced the concept of TM (short for Team Mate) statistics. To summarize, TM statistics are like a combined WOWY and are a...

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As we continue to wait for Stephane Robidas to make his on-ice debut in the blue and white, it makes sense to have a look at what we can expect from the experienced blueliner. Maple Leafs management appears to have high hopes that he can bring stability playing alongside one of their two young defenders, Morgan Rielly or Jake Gardiner. His veteran status and leadership will likely be all the more important to management now that injuries will prevent Henrik Tallinder from making the team and may prevent Cody Franson from playing  to start the season (as of this writing,...

Toronto Maple Leafs v Boston Bruins - Game Two

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My first post here at MLHS was an Introduction to Advanced Hockey Statistics, which I recommend you go read if you have not done so yet. In it I introduced the concept of WOWY statistics and WOWY analysis in player evaluation. In this post I am going to look into this deeper with examples and explain where and how you can get the data yourself. What are WOWY statistics? WOWY stands for With or Without You and essentially looks at pairs of players and how they perform together and how they perform apart. WOWY statistics typically consists of three groups for every...

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Over the past two off seasons, the Toronto Maple Leafs have made a fairly significant number of moves to their group of forwards beyond their core of Kessel, JVR, Bozak, Lupul and Kadri. Significant forwards gone from the 2011-12 season are Mikhail Grabovski, Clarke MacArthur, Nikolai Kulemin and  JayMcClement, while Dave Bolland and Mason Raymond are gone from last season. Incoming forwards the past two off seasons are David Clarkson, Mike Santorelli, Daniel Winnik, David Booth, and Leo Komarov will return to the Leafs after a season in the KHL. The following table shows some key stats for all these players over...

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Last week, I looked at a WOWY analysis of Phil Kessel and Tyler Bozak, where we saw that Bozak had a much improved season over his previous seasons. I wanted to take a look at Bozak's individual statistics to see where he improved and by how much. It is fairly easy to see he had a better season last year by looking at traditional statistics. He had 49 points in 58 games for 0.84 points per game compared to 0.61 and 0.64 his two previous seasons. What is interesting is the improvement is exclusively during 5v5 play, as he had just...

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In my first post here at MLHS, I wrote an introduction to advanced statistics which generated some good discussion in the comments. A number of the comments were with respect to WOWY analysis and some more specifically with respect to Kessel and Bozak.  I will delve into that more here in my second post. As explained in my introduction to advanced statistics post, WOWY is short for "With Or Without You" and looks at how the team performs when two players are on the ice together and when they are each playing apart from each other. So, for Phil Kessel...

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I have been invited to write some posts for Maple Leafs Hotstove on hockey analytics and how they relate to the Maple Leafs. I figured a good start would be to write up a brief (or maybe not-so brief) introduction to hockey analytics, which is something I have been intending to do on my own website HockeyAnalysis.com but haven't gotten around to it yet. It will get more attention here anyway, so this is as good a time as any to get it written. This is certainly not an exhaustive list of everything going on in hockey analytics, but it should...