In just over two weeks, the NHL Entry Draft will be upon us. Naturally, speculation as to the future destination of the top prospects is heating up. With July 1st rapidly approaching, trade rumours (some related to the draft, some not) and free agent speculation are abounding with fury. And, of course, possible internal team moves are getting their fair share of play as well.
Here are a few scenarios based on the latest buzz surrounding the Maple Leafs. The question is: which of these scenarios would you consider, and why?
Draft Scenarios
The sweet & lowdown: Brian Burke has emphatically stated he would like to move up in the draft, but has also stated that he would only do so if the deal made sense and would be content to stay put if necessary. Buzz along the grapevine is he could consider moving down if (and only if) the players he has his eyes on (assumed to be Schenn and Kane) get picked … so long as he remains within the top 10-15.
Scenario 1: Stay put
You are calling the shots on draft day, but cannot make a deal to move up from the #7 pick. Assuming the projected top 5 of Tavares, Hedman, Duchene, Kane and Schenn are off the board by pick 7, and Phoenix grabs Ekman-Larsson at 6 to fill their greatest need, who would you draft at 7? Notable players still on the board include forwards Paajarvi-Svensson, Kadri, Schroeder, Glennie, and Kassian, and defenders Cowan, Kulikov, Ellis and Despres.
Scenario 2: Trade down
You are calling the shots on draft day. Unable to make a trade to move up in the draft, you find yourself sitting at #7, with an offer of an additional second-rounder to move down to #12 courtesy of Minnesota, who are desperate replace Gaborik. Tavares, Hedman, Duchene, Kane, Schenn, and Ekman-Larssen have been drafted already, and Minnesota will draft Paajarvi-Svensson at 7. The top players remaining on the board are forwards Kadri, Schroeder, Glennie and Kassian, and defenders Cowan, Kulikov, Ellis and Despres. You know that at least four of these players will be available at 12. Would you make the deal?
Scenario 3: Trade up
You are calling the shots on draft day. Atlanta is offering you the #4 pick, but it will cost you the #7 and Tomas Kaberle. Tavares, Hedman, and Duchene are off the board, but consensus top-5 picks Schenn and Kane remain. Would you do it?
Scenario 4: Trade for player
You are offered an early 20s, front-line, future 30+ goal scorer with a bright future in the league (e.g. negotiating rights to RFA Phil Kessel) straight-up for the #7 pick. Would you do it?
Scenario 5: Trade for futures
You are offered second and third round picks this year, plus a first round pick next year, for the #7 overall in this year’s draft. Would you do it?
Trade Scenarios (non-draft)
The sweet & lowdown: As with all trade talk surrounding the Leafs, the names of Kaberle and Kubina remain front and center. Recently, a ton of speculation has been raised regarding player situations on other teams.
Scenario 1: Dany Heatley
Dany Heatley is said to be available, and word is the Senators may be willing to trade within the division (it has been suggested that given the contracts of some players, inter-division trading is no longer taboo … most GMs are more concerned about getting the best deal possible, than where they are sending the player). You know that the Senators are seeking a top-pairing defender as a starting point in trade talks. Would you make an offer, and what would it be?
Scenario 2: Jack Johnson
Jack Johnson is widely rumoured to be available. LA has a glut of young defenders, but could use some blueline experience, and/or some punch up front. Johnson is thought of as somewhat egotistic and at times a malcontent, and with his father often acting as an agent brings back not-so-fond memories of the drama surrounding Eric Lindros in his early career. However, Johnson is an undeniable top-end talent, and still quite young. Would you make an offer, and if so, what would it be?
Scenario 3: Dion Phaneuf
Dion Phaneuf may be on his way out of Calgary, who would like to add a puck-rushing defender such as Jay Bouwmeester to their lineup. Assuming Boumeester chooses another team in the mix (Edmonton, Vancouver, Ottawa are all in the sweepstakes), would you offer Kaberle for Phaneuf? Why or why not?
Scenario 4: J-S Giguere
You are looking for a goaltender, and Gustavsson has unfortunately signed elsewhere. With the emergence of Jonas Hiller, Ducks goaltender J-S Giguere may be on the trading block. He is signed for 2 more years at $6 million. Anaheim would want youth, and likely the rights to Justin Pogge (who could benefit from a change of scenery) would have to be included in any deal. However, it would take more than just a struggling prospect to land the former Cup winner and playoff MVP. Would you make an offer, and what would it be?
Scenario 5: Ed Jovanovski
Ownership issues in Phoenix may dictate the team cutting costs and operating near the cap floor during the upcoming season. As such, veteran defender Ed Jovanovski, signed at $6.5 million for two more seasons, may become available. Would you make an offer, and what would it be?
Free Agent Scenarios:
The sweet & lowdown: While not the best free agent crop we’ve ever seen, there will still be plenty to choose from on July 1st. Brian Burke has already suggested he is willing to spend to the cap, which of course touched off a hailstorm of rumour and speculation.
Scenario 1: Marian Gaborik
Grapevine buzz indicates that Marian Gaborik may be willing to consider a one-year, incentive-laden contract that could grow to Malkin/Ovechkin/Crosby money (around $8.5 million) if he meets the conditions (games played, goals, points etc), but contains a base salary that is well below market value for a player of his ability. Would you make an offer? And if so, what would be your base salary and max contract value?
Scenario 2: Francois Beauchemin
Francois Beauchemin is said to be looking for a long-term contract, in the 5-6 year range. He is currently 29 years old. Would you make an offer?
Scenario 3: Mike Cammalleri
Mike Cammalleri just turned 27, and is willing to take a shorter-term contract (3-4 years) in order to be able to test free agency again later in his career. The open market rate for his services is estimated to be in the $5.5 million range, and he is reportedly not interested in taking a hometown discount. Would you make an offer?
Scenario 4: The Sedins
The Sedin twins are willing to take less than market value as a package deal ($4.5 – 5.5 million each). In exchange for taking less money, they want long-term contracts in the 6-8 year range. Would you make an offer?
Scenario 5: Mike Komisarek
Mike Komisarek is testing free agency, and the bidding is likely to start around $4 million for his services. He is currently 27 years old, and similar to Cammalleri will likely be looking for a contract in the 3-4 year range to allow for free agency again in his early 30s. Would you make an offer?
Internal Roster Scenarios
The sweet & lowdown: Aside from all the player transaction fury, several topics of interest have arisen in regard to those staying put on the Leafs’ roster, from league assignments to team roles to the issue of captaincy. Much is up in the air, but the one thing we do know is that with Ron Wilson calling the shots, nobody’s job is safe.
Scenario 1: Prospects w/ NHL experience
NCAA signee Christian Hanson showed flashes of belonging in the NHL during his cup of coffee with the Maple Leafs. Jiri Tlusty has also shown flashes at times (literally and figuratively!), and Anton Stralman and Phil Oreskovic played well toward the end of last season. Assuming these players have a decent training camp, would their development be better served to play limited minutes in the NHL this season, or have a larger role with the AHL Marlies?
Scenario 2: Prospects w/out NHL experience
Should NCAA prospects Viktor Stalberg and Tyler Bozak be given a chance to crack the opening day lineup despite having no professional-level experience, or would scoring-line minutes on the Marlies be of greater benefit to their learning the game?
Scenario 3: CHL-eligible players
Prospects Dale Mitchell and Chris Didomenico will likely turn pro this offseason, but could return to the OHL and QMJHL as overagers (both will be 20 when the season begins). Mikhail Stefanovich still has two of years of QMJHL eligibility remaining (will be 19 when the season begins). Would these players be best served to stay in the CHL another year?
Scenario 4: Stajan’s role
Assuming the Maple Leafs’ draft a top centre (Duchene? Schenn?) or sign one (Cammalleri? Sedin?), and assuming Grabovski is retained, Matt Stajan will likely return to his usual 3rd-line centre/2nd PP unit/top PK role. However, Ron Wilson is known for juggling his lines, so a significant amount of 2nd line duty can also be expected for Stajan. Can Stajan be a key player for this team in such a role, and is another 50 points a realistic expectation?
Scenario 5: Captaincy
Many expect a full-time captain to be assigned this season, and although Luke Schenn is considered to be the next long-term bearer of the “C”, the consensus is he should not be rushed into the role too early in his career. If Kubina is retained, should his experience as a Cup winner and NHL veteran earn him the nod for the “C”? Or should it go to a younger veteran, such as Stajan, who is adored by the media and respected in the room? Or someone else? And would it be appropriate to have Schenn wear the “A” this early?
That about wraps up the latest buzz surrounding the Maple Leafs from the backroom grapevine. I look forward to your responses to these scenarios, and to finding out if any of the chatter actually comes to fruition. We will certainly know soon enough … the draft is a shade over two weeks away, and free agency just another week thereafter.
Get ready Leaf Nation, exciting times are just around the corner!
Garrett
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June 12th, 2009 at 11:00 am
@ Clark, so let me get this straight – you wouldn’t trade Kaberle straight up for Phaneuf, but you would trade Kaberle AND Pogge for Giguere??????
Phaneuf is a 24 yr old 6′3″ 215 lbs defencemen that has averaged over 50 pts and 120 pims a season and makes similar money to a 32 yr old goalie that would at best split time with Toskola.
If we still had McCabe, I would trade him, Kaberle and Pogge to Calgary for Phaneuf.
June 12th, 2009 at 12:09 pm
@ PJ
I should clarify. I would only do the Kaberle/Pogge/Giguere trade if Beauchemin signs with Toronto. If that signing happens, Kaberle loses value slightly because we now have two people slotted to do the same thing. Also, Giguere is immensely more talented than Toskala. If Giguere were to come to Toronto as well, Toskala would be on the next plane to anywhere.
As for Phaneuf; yes, Dion is a gifted player. But he’s also coming off of a fairly poor season, and from what I saw, he’s beginning to develop bad habits in his own end. He also has a monster contract (5 more years @ 6.5M). If we do that trade, and then Phaneuf keeps making bad plays in his own end, Leaf fans will throw him to the wolves and give him the Larry Murphy/Bryan McCabe. Plus, Phaneuf doesn’t fill a specific need on defence the same way Kaberle does. Schenn, Van Ryn, and Finger are all physical d-men, and Kubina plays the body too. Kaberle should be the PP quarterback. If we subtract Kaberle and add Phaneuf, suddenly we’re going to struggle even more getting the puck out of our end because we don’t have an elite puck-moving defenceman.
In summary, I’d rather have Beauchemin & Giguere than Phaneuf & Toskala.
June 12th, 2009 at 1:09 pm
Why not trade Toskala for Giguere straight up? Anaheim has their starting goaltender in Hiller, and we could probably use an upgrade in the goalie slot. Also, Anaheim has a little cap problem. Toskala makes around 1.5 – 2 million dollars less than Giguere, and we can handle Giggy’s contract. I’d probably also flip picks with ANA (our 3rd for their 4th, later 2nd for their 3rd), if necessary.
June 12th, 2009 at 1:33 pm
@ Clark
We will have to agree to disagree then. IMO the need Phaneuf fills is top defencemen on the Leafs and one of the top 5 in the entire league. He is a puck moving defencemen and has also outscored Kaberle in both of the last two years. You say he had a bad year last year and is developing some bad habits, but you would trade for Giguere who had a horrible year and lost his job to the backup. We’ve been down that road before with picking up a goalie who lost his starting job, his name was Razor. Now I’m not comparing Razor to Giguere, but Toskola was hurt last year and can play just as good as Giguere. If we are indeed in a rebuild, your not going to rebuild around a 32 yr old goalie on the decline, now a 24 yr old defenceman who hits, fights, and scores, that is a different story. Save the goaltending money for next year when Luongo becomes a free agent, don’t tie up 10 Million in goaltending and handcuff yourself.
June 12th, 2009 at 2:58 pm
I agree no friggin Giguere! Pointless just pointless for us to get him…. He gonna be any good in 3 or 4 years when the leafs are good… NO…. I still wouldnt sign anyone … Whoever we sign now might make our draft postioning worse in the next few years!
June 12th, 2009 at 3:14 pm
Ok, the whole “bad draft position” thing is stupid. A “good team” will be between 20-30 meaning they went to the 2nd or 3rd round of the playoffs, which is our ultamite goal when building a team. So lets think about it for a second, a bad team drafts 5th-20th usually. Then you have the horrible teams in the bottom 5.
I think we all agree that we will probably not be in the bottom 5 any year soon, so we will be 5th-30th.
I would trade a winning season to draft in the 20th-30th position, any day of the week. So say we DID sign a few UFA’s, its a win win situation, as long as they make sence for our organization. You get good players for free, and if the team turns our great then thats awesome and we are a compeditive team again. If they suck then it didnt hurt anything.
BOTTOM LINE is, as long as we keep our first round pick in the next few years we should be fine. We wont be bottom 5, and if we are top 8-10 we would be cup contenders. so from 5-20 I think we can all agree that there is a wide spread of talent, you just have to have good scouts, and develope them good. That was our problem in other years, trading our number 1st round pick.
June 12th, 2009 at 4:16 pm
Jordan:
Agreed. Except that the problem wasn’t so much trading #1 picks … every team moves a top pick at some point or another. The way I see it, the problem was twofold: first of all, identifying the top players available at that spot in the draft order. And secondly, developing those players.
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Detroit doesn’t succeed just because they find the Zetterberg’s and Datsyuk’s in late rounds. Those guys were not exactly widely heralded among league scouts at the time … and coming from Sweden and Russia both were heavily scouted by many teams.
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Detroit succeeds because they recognize that quantifiable skills (skating, shooting, technique) can be developed, but intangibles such as intelligence and heart (”hockey sense”) cannot. They focus on drafting the players who have that hockey sense, who are committed to two-way play (”team game” mentality), and develop the finite skills from there.
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Who else could have picked Dan Cleary off the scrap heap and made him into the player he is today? Or turned the once-unheralded Zetterberg and Datsyuk into superstars (and guys like Filppula and Hudler into future stars)? It’s all about development, which is why they succeed, year in and year out.
June 12th, 2009 at 4:25 pm
Yup, your right. That just proves again that unless your drafting in the top part of the draft where you KNOW you getting a great player, it come down to alot more then just the number pick you have. As long aas we keep all our pick we should be geared
June 13th, 2009 at 6:57 pm
Draft Scenarios
1 – Draft Pjaarvi
2 – No
3 – No
4 – No
5 – No
Trade Scenarios
1 – No never, guy is a quitter, has no idea how to win
2 – Yes Kubina/mid prospect for Jack Johnson
3 – Yes in a heartbeat! Phaneuf and Schenn together, beautiful
4 – No never
5 – Yes but only if it was part of a package to get more youth since this is a dump of salary.
Free Agent Scenarios
1 – Yes, take a chance on a superstar
2 – Yes
3 – No
4 – No
5 – Yes
Internal Roster Scenarios
1 – In the NHL please but trade oreskovic as part of one of the above packages
2 – Keep them in the AHL for the whole year.
3 – Put them in the AHL for the whole year
4 – Stajan needs to be the 3rd line centre
5 – To be determined based on the above.
June 14th, 2009 at 12:20 pm
I think the Phaneuf thing is a possibility if we throw in something else like a depth player but only if Calgary has knowledge that they are signing Bouwmeester. So this is what the Leafs look like next year if some of the thinkable and unthinkable happen according to this article.
Pjaarvi Stajan Gaborik
Ponikarowski Grabovski Kulemin
Hagman Mitchell Tlusty
???? Deveraux Hansen
Schenn Van Ryn
Komisarek Phaneuf
Stralman Finger
White
In the system
One other first round selection via a Kubina trade
Dido
Dale Mitchell
Stefanovich
Stahlberg
Bozak
June 15th, 2009 at 1:10 am
DRAFT SCENARIOS
Scenario 1 – Take either MPS or Ryan Ellis
Scenario 2 – Trade and take Ryan Ellis, while signing Gaborik later on in the offseason and laughing in Minnesota’s faces after.
Scenario 3 – Nope, if I was to give up arguably my best player and my first round pick in the same trade, it would have to be for a top 2, if not the first overall selection.
Scenario 4 – I would make the trade, then sign Kessel long-term…However I would then seek to trade either Kaberle/Kubina and one of my second rounders for another first round selection, hopefully ranging from 15-23.
Scenario 5 – No, being the GM of the Toronto Maple Leafs of all teams, this would be unacceptable.
TRADE SCENARIOS
Heatley – I wouldn’t bother with Heatley to be honest, he’s quite a prolific point-getter however he needs players to set him up, and the Leafs definitely don’t have anyone really capable of allowing Dany to reach his full potential, not to mention one would assume he would like to go to a contender.
JJ – I would definitely offer for him, even though it appears he’s already off the market with Anaheim. I would offer Kubina and possibly a second rounder for him, which would seemingly be fair considering his value has no doubt declined over the last season. However with the addition of JJ to a defence core already armed with Kaberle, Luke Schenn, possibly Ryan Ellis and Francois Beauchemin if I could manage to sign him, defence would be the last of the Leafs worries.
Dion – I’m sorry but I cannot justify trading Tomas for Dion when I could just as easily sign Beauchemin for about 4mil/season, then instead of paying 6 mill for just Dion, I could pay 8 for the services of 2 top 4 defenceman.
J.S.G – I don’t see much point in trading essentially anything for someone who is coming off one of the worst seasons of his career and is owed $12 million over the next 2 seasons regardless of his role as a starter, or possibly a backup to Toskala, who is also a decent goalie, not to mention keeping them both would simply tie up too much money at the goalie position.
Jovocop – you gotta be kidding me…There’s no use for him on any team looking to rebuild and be successful in the future…to me he’s become more of a guy you’d trade for at the deadline if you were a contender, that’s about it.
FREE AGENT SCENARIOS
Gaborik – I would definitely sign him, to either a one or two year deal, even if he asked for a NTC. I would start him around the 3.5-4mil/season range, with his deal being worth up to 7.5/8mil provided he plays in at least 75 games, scoring 40 or more goals and having 90 or more points.
Beauchemin – As I stated earlier, I would sign him given the opportunity at 4mil or so per season, for 3-4 years.
Mike Cammalleri – $5.5mil for a 39 goal scorer who was in an idle situation with Calgary last season? Not likely…Especially considering I believe he has only topped 30 goals one other time in his career…You simply cannot give up big money for guys who haven’t proven to be CONSISTANT…Jason Blake anybody?
The Sedins – They are not the answer to our rebuilding system in my opinion and therefore I’d stay away from offering them long term lucrative contracts because thinking long term, we wouldn’t win the cup next season with them anyways, and the 2010 FA class is looking slightly more inviting than the Swedish brothers. If anything, I’d take just Henrik
M.K – Finger, White, MVR, either Kaberle or Kubina, Schenn, Beauchemin, Frogran, Stralman, Phil Oreskovic, possibly Ryan Ellis or JJ…That already is more than enough defenceman, let alone money invested into them to be bidding for another one who, while I’d rather have him for 4mil/season than Jeff Finger, still isn’t worth 4 mil on a team that, with all these defenseman should really be focusing on offence.
INTERNAL ROSTER SCENARIOS
Scenarios 1 & 2 – I would essentially assemble my forth line out of young players such as Hansen, Bozak, Stalberg and so on, so if they were to have a decent camp I would give them their AHL roles to begin with, while at the same time giving each of them a shot, depending on their AHL performances are progressing, at becoming a stable 3rd/4th liner, for the time being.
Scenario 3 – Dido will most likely not be playing at all next season, so he is out of the question here, and as for my buddy Dale Mitchell, I’d recommend moving up into the AHL as opposed to staying back in the OHL. Chances are he would be reunited with fellow Spitfire and Memorial Cup winner Ryan Ellis for at least the early part of the season in the AHL, assuming I was to draft Ellis and not MPS with the 7th pick.
Stajans Role – I really like Matt Stajan, however he just isn’t effective enough to be a top 6 forward when it comes down to it…I’d like to see him have a good start to next year so we could possibly get some good offers for him down the stretch, especially if we are not contending quite yet, however Matt Stajan, unless he’s okay with 4th line centre and PK time on my Leafs, isn’t an asset to the organization’s future.
Regarding the “C” – I would hold off for another year, unless Luke Schenn develops into a monster-shutdown top dman during the season, in which case he would receive it, however, it would be him receiving it eventually regardless, it’s just a matter of letting him mature/perform into the role, as opposed to just dumping it on him, kinda like we did our franchise player tag.
P.S – Great article, hands down.
June 15th, 2009 at 8:39 am
When Stajan gets in his forechecking zone he looks awesome, he seems to always come out of the corners with the puck. That would make for a top level 3rd line center. Also we have never seen him play in the playoffs and I think he has the ability to escalate his game when the pressure heats up, I would love to see that at least once before we give up on him. He is someone we are sure to regret losing if we trade.
June 15th, 2009 at 12:09 pm
@Peter Bruins i agree with you 100% man we need to hold on to stajan… hes 25 had 50 points last season i believe he led all forwards in the hitting as well… look at burrows in van city he looked like a 3rd line plug before now hes the perfect winger along side the sedins…
@ dan j.. you think stajan is a 4th line center???.. your just another negative leafs fan who doesnt know a thing about hockey
June 15th, 2009 at 4:23 pm
@ Joshua – Depending on his development, yes, he could be 3rd/4th line with additional minutes on possibly the second PP and definately the PK. He’s good don’t get me wrong I just don’t think Stajan should be a second line centre unless he has a breakout season of 60 or more points. Last season could’ve been considered breakout for him but overall, yes 3rd line maybe 4th on a team like Detroit or Pittsburgh, which is ideally what the Leafs are trying to become, right?
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