The Maple Leafs and Rangers recorded just four shot attempts each at five-on-five in the first period of this game, with special teams time taking up nearly half the period.
Before the game, Craig Berube remarked that the Rangers looked more like the Leafs in their own zone this season (they’ve shifted from man-to-man to zone defense). Since the start of the new season, new head coach Mike Sullivan has talked at length about his team’s goal of recommitting to defense and limiting rush chances against, after an extremely leaky 2024-25 season under Peter Laviolette.
Now mix in two very good goalies, the fact that the Rangers were playing their sixth game in 10 days and the Leafs their fourth in six, and this had all the ingredients for a cagey, somewhat sleepy matchup. Which is mostly what it turned out to be.
The Leafs entered the third period up 1-0 — thanks to a mid-first-period power-play goal (their first PP tally of the season) — yet left regulation feeling pretty happy to secure a point after a fairly lopsided final frame, thanks to a few key saves from Anthony Stolarz, who was excellent throughout the night (including a handful of highlight-reel stops). The Leafs didn’t touch the puck for 50 seconds to start OT until they counterattacked and won the game by a score of 2-1 courtesy of a William Nylander->Auston Matthews 2v1 connection.
The Leafs picked up plenty of points in this manner last season, winning with less than their A game and surviving sizable periods of bending but not breaking. There are few signs of it changing this year so far, for better or worse.
Post-Game Notes
– Three-on-three means nothing for the playoffs, clearly, but it does mean something for the playoff seeding, and the Leafs’ 10-2 record at three-on-three OT was a big help in securing the division title last season. Just three of those OT winners were scored with both Auston Matthews and his former running mate on the ice, and dating back three seasons (back to ’22-23), they were at seven goals for vs. five against together in OT. Decent, but nothing special. Curious to see what Nylander-Matthews can do together as the regular starting pair. Good start!
– It was good to see Nic Roy bear down with two right-side faceoff wins (on either side of an icing) with around 1.5 minutes to go in regulation. He’s not winning enough faceoffs generally (42% this season, 37.5% tonight), so he needs to get it trending in a more respectable direction. But those are the key moments within games where he has to earn his keep as their only right-shot C option.
– The Leafs have scored first in four of five games so far, which is great news. On the flipside, while they’ve never been averse to parking the bus and protecting a lead by leaning on their net-front defense and great goaltending under Craig Berube, it feels like they’re a little less convincing as frontrunners so far this (early) season. The numbers back it up: They’re giving up 16 high-danger chances and 34 shots per 60 minutes when leading, which don’t rank favourably league-wide and are significantly higher than last season’s marks.
Berube seemed to hint after the game that he sensed his team’s energy was low on its fourth game in six days (it’ll be a five-games-in-eight-days stretch before a two-day break on Sunday-Monday). Some of the lost battles in the third (specifically before the 1-1 goal) may well be a byproduct of this, but the excuse wears thin when we factor in that the Rangers have played every other day since opening night on Oct. 7 (six in 10).
After a second watch, the third period wasn’t as one-sided or Ranger-dominant as it felt in real time. But there were a few sloppy, mostly unforced, own-zone turnovers — including by Benoit and Maccelli — leading to a few dangerous scramble sequences where Stolarz needed to stand tall. And while the Leafs didn’t give up loads of grade-As against, they struggled to sustain offensive-zone pressure, even after the Rangers tied it up at 1-1. They looked like they were still protecting a lead/the point, for the most part, with a hope of maybe squeezing a goal out somewhere, versus waking up after the tying goal and truly getting after it, with a real intention of tilting the ice their way and winning the game.
The Leafs have started games pretty strongly generally and have been rewarded with leads, but they need to get into the mindset of pushing and dictating play for longer over 60-minute games. Even by last season’s standard, where bend-but-don’t-break was pretty commonplace, it’s been too uneven that way through five games.
– The Leafs, yet again, left this one with their seemingly maximum-allotted two power plays per game (a flagrant high stick on Cowan went undetected or ignored in the first minute). They remain last in the league in power-play time per game (3:34). But the breakthrough arrived on their second — and last — power-play opportunity of the game, the culmination of a really good power play by both units.
The top unit wasted a few shots on the first power-play opportunity (one from Rielly, another from Matthews into a shinpad for a clearance), and the second unit moved it well but overpassed it. Heading back onto the PP not too long later seemed to be just what the doctor ordered. Both units looked really sharp, working the puck through seams and shooting with purpose — Nylander picked out Matthews at the backdoor (the pass was into his skates a little bit) for a near goal, there was a good tip by Domi, a good look in the slot for Robertson, and then finally, Nylander sent a pass into the backpost that took a friendly bounce off of Knies, who was rewarded for taking up a good position at the top of the crease.
The Leafs are getting plenty of shot attempts off and generating high-danger chances at a solid rate on the power play. One goal in five games/10 attempts doesn’t look pretty, but it really comes down to a) the number of opportunities they’re getting in the first place, b) some of the finishing and some of the puck luck, and c) perhaps a little more volume on net from Matthews and Nylander specifically. Their concepts and personnel combinations on each unit make a good deal of sense, and even with Rielly in as PPQB, there is still plenty of continuity for the top unit, including the coach in charge. Far too early to panic.
– Easton Cowan took his last shift of the game with around 13-14 minutes to go after an icing and a turnover on the same shift. Nylander, McMann, and (briefly) Domi took shifts with Matthews and Knies in his place down the stretch.
– With He Who Shall Not Be Named gone and a rookie now on the top line, Craig Berube has been looking for more opportunities to load up Nylander with Matthews and Knies, usually for offensive-zone draws (75% OZS), and sometimes in mismatch scenarios on home ice (such as against NYR’s fourth line early in the third period). It’s too small a sample size to glean much yet (just under 10 minutes of five-on-five time), but it is strange how little the Leafs are squeezing out of these supposed power shifts so far. They’ve been out-attempted 21-14, outshot 8-3, out-scored 2-0, and they’re credited with one high-danger chance (vs. five against). It’s not so much about expecting explosive fireworks offensively in just nine minutes and change of ice time together, but you’d at least hope for some momentum gains at a minimum. It is worth noting that they started a few shifts in the d-zone tonight as Berube sat Cowan for most of the third.
Wouldn’t go so far as to say it’s worth giving up on the concept, but it’s something to keep an eye on.
– Dakota Joshua finished at a team-low 9:15 in this one. He did make a nice shot block to snuff out some developing danger, and he threw a few solid hits. He’s been serviceable on the PK, which is off to a good start (although Anthony Stolarz needed to be particularly good there to keep the sheet clean tonight). But he’s at five shots in five games and isn’t spending as much time as you’d like to see down low in the offensive zone grinding on pucks or out front of the net digging at them.
Steven Lorentz is healthy, already has two points in his two games played, and deserves to be in the lineup. At least while Laughton is hurt and the Cowan experiment is still rolling (and Maccelli is showing okay on L2), Berube seems somewhat locked into his McMann-Domi-Robertson line for the time being; that line had some positive moments tonight, while leading the team with a 5-1 shot share at five-on-five. Especially given his salary and term (and his PK contributions), they probably want to give Joshua a fair amount of runway to acclimate, but you have to wonder about the length of the leash.
– Fifth among defensemen right now in TOI through five games: Brandon Carlo, just a shade above Benoit. 18:11 would be a career low. Prior to the 1-1 Ranger goal, it was a bad decision to glove it down in the defensive zone when the Rangers were about to be called for a high stick, and he committed a bad icing at a bad time in the third period as well. He played a good opener vs. Montreal, but it’s been a mixed bag since. He’s at a team-low 44% CF among defensemen despite avoiding the toughest defensive-zone usage (reserved for McCabe-Tanev). It’s got to be a little cleaner with the puck and the decision-making overall.
Game Flow: 5v5 Shot Attempts
Heat Map: 5v5 Shot Attempts
