For the most part, this 2-0 victory followed the Maple Leafs’ formula that led to their regular-season division title success in 2024-25. It also pulled the Leafs within two points of the current division lead, despite all of their trials and tribulations this season.
The first period saw Tampa Bay generally carry the play, as they were more organized and efficient in their breakouts/puck play, while the Leafs frequently flipped the puck away and struggled to get it back. More excellence from Dennis Hildeby — and a last-ditch goal-line save by Troy Stecher — kept the Lightning at bay despite a 25-13 Tampa advantage in shot attempts and a 7-3 Tampa advantage in high-danger chances.
OEL helped (temporarily) shift momentum after his post-whistle engagement — Jake Guentzel shoved him from behind — drew a Tampa penalty out of the scrum. The top power-play unit won the faceoff cleanly only for William Nylander to immediately fire a puck into a shinpad for a clearance. The top unit couldn’t set itself up again properly from there before they were yanked with more than a minute left in the power play.
Back at five-on-five, the Leafs scored against the general run of play in what would stand up as the game-winner 44 minutes of game action later. In perhaps his best game of the season, Simon Benoit did a great job turning back an entry attempt by stripping Jake Guentzel as Tampa was in the middle of a line change, kick-starting a rush attack in transition. A broken play — first, Easton Cowan’s pass deflected to Morgan Rielly, then Rielly was stick-lifted from behind on the first shot attempt — fell kindly for a sprawling Rielly to finish behind Jonas Johansson, who came out to challenge the initial Rielly shot.
It was a 1-0 period for the Leafs, despite an iffy process. But they got a lot better from there while playing from in front. They clamped down defensively quite well and threatened several times to extend their lead. The Leafs’ top line, in particular, was creating plenty of looks; Matthews ended the game with eight shots on goal/six individual scoring chances. In the end, despite a 62% xGF first period for Tampa, the Leafs ended up edging the Lightning on expected goals over the 60 minutes while playing with the lead.
The Leafs allowed just four high-danger chances in the final 40 minutes after allowing seven in the first period alone. The Lightning generally carried the zone time advantage, but the Leafs’ structure defensively was sound. Tampa frequently sought out east-west options (and at times overpassed), but the Leafs’ sticks were really good defensively. The Lightning were credited with double the number of giveaways as the Leafs, who managed the puck and the game pretty well with the lead.
They were a little fortunate to possess that lead after 20 minutes, but from there, this was the type of performance that harkened back to the 2024-25 Leafs. The Leafs were high-end “frontrunners” last season — they both scored first and won games after scoring first at a top-five level — thanks to mature game/puck management, their defensive structure, and good goaltending. This win mostly followed that script; I say “mostly” because they got away with committing too many icings late in the game, and needed a fortunate post save on a tip by Brayden Point to survive one of those sequences.
The Leafs continue to have the Lightning’s number under Berube, winning their fifth straight against Tampa dating back to last October.
Post-Game Notes
– Really liked the Leafs’ physical engagement from the start of this game. Yanni Gourde was digging at Hildeby early and often in this one, but John Tavares and Jake McCabe did a good job of stepping right in. Oliver Ekman-Larsson took a sneaky shove from behind from Guentzel after a whistle and did not take it lying down. In the third period, Simon Benoit dropped the massive Jack Finley, who was running his mouth early in this one. They didn’t let Gage Gonclaves sneak away to the bench after the knee on Dakota Mermis, leading to a Dakota Joshua fight in which he handled himself well. Obviously, the slash attempt in that scrum got away from Bobby McMann — it probably looked a lot worse than the actual impact — and the league is understandably sensitive to any tomahawking of the stick toward the head area, so he’s probably going to miss some time.
McCabe, in particular, had the type of game that reminded me of the great Sheldon Keefe quote, “Jake McCabe arrives at the puck in a bad mood.” He was nasty and excellent alongside Troy Stecher in another big-minute night against tough competition. Benoit also played one of his better games of the season — engaged physically, moving pucks cleanly, getting involved offensively, and playing a big role in the game-winning goal.
Unfortunately, Mermis took a nasty knee-on-knee and is likely to miss some time, as that pairing was a night-and-day improvement over Benoit-Myers. The Leafs should really consider taking a gander at Matt Benning on Benoit’s right if Mermis is unavailable.
– We’re starting to run out of descriptions for the abomination transpiring on the Leafs’ power play. Starting with a clean faceoff win only for Nylander to fire it into a shinpad for an immediate clear was the worst tone-setter in this game, and there isn’t a single redeeming thing about what the top unit is doing on the ice right now. To start the year, they were at least showing reasonably well in the shot/expected-goal metrics, so you could squint and hope for a turnaround at some point. But since their small flurry of PP goals in the middle of November, the Leafs have two power play goals in 12 games, and their shot attempts-per-60/expected goals rates have fallen into the bottom five or six in the league over this stretch. If you’re not thinking about handing it over to another coach for new ideas, or splitting the units up, at this point, you’re kind of just hoping against hope that a puck goes in and suddenly the $40+ million of talent on the ice relaxes and finds their confidence. There is nothing about their actual process that can be banked on at this stage.
– When a 6’7 goaltender is as athletic but also as calm, square, and efficient as Dennis Hildeby is in the Leafs’ net right now, it is very, very hard to beat. His performance from the outset in this game, and his massive presence when confidently challenging shooters, forced Tampa to seek the extra pass a lot, to their own detriment. A little panic was certainly justified after the latest Woll injury. Hildeby has settled the entire market down and earned the confidence of his team very quickly.
– The second line created the lone Leaf goal (outside of Matthews’ EN) as Tampa was in the midst of a line change, and there were a few chances — Tavares hit a post, and Nylander mishandled a 2v1. But it’s clear how William Nylander‘s current funk, along with some games where Easton Cowan looks the part of a rookie, is affecting the unit right now.
The matchups in this game were shaking out as Knies-Matthews-Domi vs. Hagel-Cirelli-Kucherov and Joshua-Roy-McMann vs. Paul-Point-Guentzel, with Lorentz-Laughton-Jarnkrok backfilling those top-six matchups. That left Cowan-Tavares-Nylander with a lot of five-on-five time against Gourde, Holmberg, and Girgensons. It should be a really favourable matchup for the Leafs, but Nylander recorded zero shots on goal, and they were outshot 4-1 in those five-on-five minutes. You felt good about how the top line was creating in this game, and how the bottom-six was grinding inside some tougher matchups. But that was the mismatch the Leafs should’ve been able to exploit, and they didn’t take full advantage, despite starting most of their shifts in the offensive zone.
– It was an 86% night on the faceoff dot, including a four-for-five night in the defensive zone, for Scott Laughton, who was again stellar on the PK, important in the close-out effort, and had a good chance to continue the goal streak that he didn’t bury (in addition to the missed empty-net attempt). The line should’ve scored in the first period, but Jonas Johansson robbed Calle Jarnkrok point-blank. The Robertson vs. Jarnkrok question is a tough one, knowing how this Laughton line is constructed and deployed. Jarnkrok is a better fit to play limited checking + PK minutes, but Robertson doesn’t deserve to sit (and probably would’ve scored from that Jarnkrok position, for the record). If we’re honest, Robertson would’ve been well-suited to play on a scoring line facing secondary matchups on Tavares’ line in this game, but Berube is clearly smitten with Cowan right now (not entirely unjustified, but it’s arguably a little overboard at this point). It yet again puts Robertson in an awkward spot, but the likely McMann suspension creates some opportunity again.
Game Flow: 5v5 Shot Attempts
Heat Map: 5v5 Shot Attempts
Game Highlights: Maple Leafs 2 vs. Lightning 0
