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Toronto Maple Leafs (9-8-4, 21st in NHL) vs. Edmonton Oilers (12-9-2, 10th in NHL)

Puck drop: 9:00 p.m. EST
Arena: Rogers Arena
Watch: Sportsnet West, TSN4


Game Day Notes

– As the Leafs enter their longest road trip of the season so far looking for just their second win in their 12th road game, Mike Babcock will tweak his approach from the looks of things. Based on the line rushes in the morning skate, William Nylander will start at center on the team’s fourth line in between Ben Smith and Matt Martin — at least to start. Without control over the matchups on the road trip, Babcock may look to roll four lines that each contain some scoring talent and hope to create some mismatches in the third and fourth line matchups. Smith and Martin do not give Nylander much to work with on his wings, but that should mean some shared ice time with the Morgan Rielly – Nikita Zaitsev defence pairing, at a minimum.

The Leafs have scored just 24 goals in 10 road games this season.

– Nylander also missed a game with an upper-body injury on Saturday, which may mean he’s being eased back in and could move back onto a line with Matthews or Kadri in short order.

– Nylander starting on the fourth line would also mean the second game in a row in which Nikita Soshnikov will play next to Nazem Kadri and Leo Komarov, where he generated a couple of scoring chances and helped his line drive 70% of the possession against the Alex Ovechkin line in Saturday’s win over the Washington Capitals. He assisted on the JVR powerplay goal and put four shots on goal in a season-high 15:19 of time-on-ice.

– In the Leafs‘ first meeting against the Oilers at home on November 1st, Nazem Kadri scored twice including OT winner, outbattling Connor McDavid on the play, after carrying 61% of the shot attempts head to head against McDavid at even strength. Ben Smith scored the other goal in a 3-2 Leafs win.

– Since that November 1st meeting, the Leafs are 6-4-0-1 compared to the Oilers’ 5-7-0-1 record over the same span. The Oilers have allowed 2.8 goals against per game over those 13 games after giving up just 2.1 in the month of October.

– Peter Holland did not make the trip out West on the advice of his agent, according to reports. After playing just eight of 21 games with a time-on-ice average of 10:43, either a trade or waivers looks like the next step. Can’t help but feel a game on Nylander’s wing would’ve been the best opportunity to get Holland involved offensively while improving the fourth line, but it seems inevitable at this point that Holland will have to be moved on to a new opportunity. Holland was originally acquired from the Anaheim Ducks alongside Brad Stabuitz in exchange for Jesse Blacker, a conditional third pick, and a seventh round pick. That third round pick later became a second after Holland played more than 25 games during the 2013-14 season.


Matchup Stats

Statistics courtesy of SportingCharts.com

screenshot-2016-11-29-12-41-28

StatEdmTor
Points2622
Record %0.5650.524
Home Winning %0.50.727
Away Winning %0.5830.3
Shootout Winning %0.50
Goal Differential Per Game0.39-0.05
Shot Differential Per Game1.61-0.9
Hits Per Game2526.3
PIM Per Game811.5
Opponent PIM Per Game8.313
Goals Per Game2.913.14
Even Strength Goals Per Game2.32.48
Power Play Goals Per Game0.520.62
Shots Per Game31.932.4
Shots Per Goal10.910.3
Team Shooting %0.0910.097
Power Play %0.1740.21
Goals Against Per Game2.523.19
ES Goals Against Per Game2.042.57
PP Goals Against Per Game0.350.52
Shots Against Per Game30.2633.29
Shots Against Per Goal1210.43
Opp. Team Shooting %0.0830.096
Penalty Kill %0.8770.831
Save %0.9170.904
Goals Against Average2.53.16
Shutouts30
Opponent Save %0.9090.903
Opponent Goals Against Average2.893.11
Opponent Shutouts11

Toronto Maple Leafs Projected Lines

Forwards

Leo Komarov  – Nazem Kadri – Nikita Soshnikov
van Riemsdyk – Tyler Bozak – Mitch Marner
Zach Hyman – Auston Matthews – Connor Brown
Matt Martin – William Nylander – Ben Smith

Defencemen

Morgan Rielly – Nikita Zaitsev
Jake Gardiner – Connor Carrick
Matt Hunwick – Roman Polak

Scratched: Martin Marincin, Peter Holland, Frank Corrado

Goaltenders

Starter: Frederik Andersen (Expected)
Backup: Jhonas Enroth


Edmonton Oilers Projected Lines

Forwards

Milan Lucic – Connor McDavid – Jesse Puljujarvi
Patrick Maroon – Ryan Nugent-Hopkins – Jordan Eberle
Benoit Pouliot – Leon Draisaitl – Drake Caggiula
Matt Hendricks – Mark Letestu – Zack Kassian

Defencemen

Oscar Klefbom – Adam Larsson
Andrej Sekera – Kris Russell
Darnell Nurse – Matt Benning

Goaltenders

Starter: Cam Talbot (Confirmed)
Backup: Jonas Gustavsson


Mike Babcock’s Morning Skate Media Address

Mike Babcock: Before we get started, Peter Holland never made the trip. He met with Lou and they had his agent on his phone, and they decided he wasn’t coming on the trip. Second thing is, through our media guy, it came to my attention that William Nylander – evidently, there was speculation and stuff that he chose to sit out the game – had no choice; he was told by the trainers he wasn’t allowed to play. How are you guys doing?

From a fan’s perspective, is it a shame that these two teams only meet twice a year?

Babcock: I watch the pre-scout – it might be good we don’t. Let’s be honest. It’s got to be pretty exciting. I was in Edmonton for a long time — I used to coach at Red Deer College – and then to come in here and see this building… Nugent-Hopkins is a real good player. Draisatl is a real good player. But McDavid is different than everybody else. The last time I saw a guy go faster than the whole league was Bobby Orr. I was nine years old. This guy is faster than the whole league. It’s incredible to watch. It’s got to be an exciting time here.

What did you guys do right to slow him down?

Babcock: Things went good for us. Let’s not kid ourselves, too. We were at home, we had good matchups, and played hard, and were good defensively. We’re going to have to do a better job on the road. You don’t get last change on the road. Obviously, he’s a guy who can play a lot of minutes. Play on the wing, take faceoffs, not take faceoffs. That’s important. But let’s not forget Nugent-Hopkins and Draisatl. They’ve got three centers there and lots of players, and they’ve done a good job.

How much does one guy who is that much different than everyone else in the game propel a team?

Babcock: If he’s a real good person, and he cares about his teammates and he cares about being the best and he’s driven, then it changes everything because he sets a tone and makes people better around him. If you’ve just got skill without the will, though, it’s not the same thing. To me, it’s pretty apparent just by watching – and I haven’t known the kid very long, I met with him before the draft and then just in watching him — that he’s a pretty special kid, too. He’s going to become a man and a big part of a franchise.

What do you think of Frederik Andersen lately?

Babcock: Real good. He started slow. He didn’t have training camp. He didn’t have the World Cup. It started rocky for him. He probably wasn’t used to all the attention and the things he was getting, and just had to figure out a way to be himself. Once he got that looked after, he’s been great.

Did the situation with Holland create any roster problems for this trip?

Babcock: No. We still have extra. We might have to go 7 and 11, if that was the case, but that’s life.

One of your young stars broke out of a bit of a slump recently. Are you seeing him grow everyday and go through a lot of learning?

Babcock: I was looking at it, and at the same time they were showing Connor didn’t have a goal in ten games, or something like that, Matthews didn’t have one in ten or eleven games. That’s the league. The league doesn’t just let you score. It’s too bad it doesn’t, but it just doesn’t. It’s a good league. He was still playing well and getting better every day. By this time next year, he’ll be that much better – a year in the league, just being around and knowing what it takes. He’s come a million miles already and he was good when he arrived. His upside is huge. Like McDavid, he’s got an elite drive train and wants to be great.

It looks like William Nylander might see some time at center tonight.

Babcock: That’s where we’re going to start with him. The guys played really well the other night. He’s starting there with Smith and Martin. He’s going to play on the powerplay and we’ll see what happens as the game goes on, post-powerplay and post-penalty kill and all of those things. We’ll just watch hockey like we always do.

There were two guys sitting over there in the pregame skate. One has a McDavid jersey on and the other has a Matthews jersey on. Is it your hope that, with those two players as a focal point, there is the potential for a really good rivalry?

Babcock: I sure hope so, but to have a rivalry, those two teams have to play in the end. They don’t let you play unless you win like three rounds before that, right? Let’s not get too carried away here, man. We’re in game 20. But no, I think it’s exciting. I said it earlier — when the World Cup was on, I thought the best promotion for hockey I’ve ever seen was the young guns team. Best promotion I’ve ever seen before, just because of the fact that the exhilaration and the excitement of what’s to come from the NHL was spectacular. And no one is talking about Scheifele right now or Ekblad. There are good players.

Todd said you called him after the last game. Obviously, you had comments about McDavid’s ice time. Is it just an example of how the emotion sometimes carries over?

Babcock: It’s all on me. All my fault. Not my intent, but it doesn’t matter what your intent was. Shanny is pretty good friends with myself and Todd. I hadn’t looked at it the next day, or two days later. So when I did it… it’s not right. Todd McLellan is going to be a friend of Mike Babcock and my family for a long time after hockey. So, don’t get in the way of yourself and keep your mouth shut. How’s that?

I mean, it was ridiculous. It’s not right. We had a fine chat this morning when we toured around the nice facility.

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