Saturday, March 28, 2015
MLHS Notebook

MLHS Notebook

Since 2011, Anthony Petrielli has been providing his weekly long-form breakdown of the Toronto Maple Leafs' games.

656

One of the main questions in Toronto down the stretch has been whether or not Dave Nonis will be General Manager of the team moving forward. It is a reasonable question, but perhaps it is not the right one. More appropriately, is this a position that anyone in the league with experience will actually covet? There are the obvious reasons one can think of as to why an experienced manager would not want to take control of the Toronto Maple Leafs. The team is lousy, they have an admittedly shallow prospect pool, the team is riddled with controversy and has a poor...

Randy Carlyle Peter Horachek

824

When the Maple Leafs fired Randy Carlyle 40 games into the season, their record stood at 21-16-3. They are 6-22-3 since then. On the surface, that is nothing but ugly and it has led to some half-sarcastic comments suggesting Carlyle should win coach of the year. Let’s explore it. The first thing to note is that, while the team was technically in a playoff position by overall points, they were not by points percentage. Throughout the season, the constant discrepancies in games played between teams mean there is more value in looking at points per game compared to overall points. The Leafs were...

737

On trade deadline day, it was revealed the Leafs and Red Wings were making a push to get a deal done that would send Dion Phaneuf to the Detroit Red Wings. In the aftermath, the potential deal, or at least parts of it, was revealed. Here is what Elliotte Friedman wrote last week: My guess is the pre-Coburn plan centred around Phaneuf, Stephen Weiss and Brendan Smith. The Maple Leafs understood they’d have to take Weiss’s contract to make it work. Smith makes sense because, like the Toronto captain, he’s a left-shot. He’s also due for a raise so adding salary...

855

A deadline of selling rentals and stockpiling depth picks was expected, until the Columbus Blue Jackets came calling with an offer too good to be true. Somehow, Toronto got out of the David Clarkson era relatively unscathed. Last summer, the Leafs signed three effective top-nine forwards who can each play up and down the line-up, at every forward position, drive play, play on the PK, and chip in 25+ points. Combined, Leo Komarov, Daniel Winnik and Mike Santorelli accounted for a $5.7M cap hit. On his own, David Clarkson made $5.25M. This season Clarkson will finish with fewer points than each despite...

1026

The NHL is officially a week away from the NHL trade deadline. Leafs fans in seller mode rejoice. I’ve written before about selling high and selling low, and I thought this would be a good time to revisit that framework due to an expected flurry of trades to happen at some point in the next seven days. I’m not going to write about obvious players on the move like pending UFA Daniel Winnik, but let’s take a look at some players under the Leafs control who are on the block: Phil Kessel Sell Status: Low Thoughts: Kessel had 214 points in his last 212 regular...

96

The Maple Leafs completed their first trade of the season with something expected: Moving out a couple of pending UFAs they were in tough to retain. There are essentially two ways to view the move. You can say this as an indictment on the Leafs for not locking up Cody Franson long-term earlier, or that he is not worth the money he is about to get and they cut bait at the right time. Turning 28 this year, most know the story on Cody Franson by now. He’s a big, right-handed defenseman who can score and struggles to skate. Since 2012, he...

Brian Burke Mastercard Center Board

135

Rumour season is in fine form as the Toronto Maple Leafs, yet again, limp to the finish line. There are a lot of big names being thrown around that carry big contracts, and while we don’t know if any of them will be moved we can reasonably assume at least some of the Leafs pending UFAs will be gone by the trade deadline. In particular, the three players that are getting the most attention in Toronto are Daniel Winnik, Mike Santorelli, and Cody Franson. The trade market has not been set yet, but we can look back at previous deadlines to...

237

Since the hiring of Peter Horachek, the Maple Leafs have reduced their shots against, but have been ice cold offensively. Horachek has begun implementing a 5-5-5 system where the team is about moving in units versus cheating for odd man rushes and hanging out at the far blue line, and it has taken some time adjust. One of the most interesting quotes on the team and their changes came from Ken Hitchcock before the Leafs played in St. Louis. “Everything I see is Nashville,” Hitchcock said. “That’s the way Nashville played for years. You can see the implementation of it. I...

Dave Nonis Leafs

593

The evaluation period might not be over, but the reality has hit Leafs Nation. This team is not very good, and it needs a face lift. Not a face lift to the bottom six this time, but to the top players on the team. The real question, though, is who is going to do it? The Leafs have nine players making at least $3M as a capped-out, lottery team, and current-GM Dave Nonis signed every one of those deals save for the JVR contract, which is easily the best bang-for-the-buck deal the team has locked in. Talk around town...

Peter Horachek, Toronto Maple Leafs

442

When Peter Horacek was hired in the summer, it was a reasonably safe bet that at some point the man who served as interim head coach of the Florida Panthers last season would be doing so again for the Toronto Maple Leafs this season. While many Leafs fans dream of the Mike Babcocks and Todd McLellans of the world, Horachek is the guy in charge right now and he is a possibility to be the guy long term. In Shanahan’s presser he said, “Peter will be one of the options that we will consider.” It might be a good thing...

407

With the NFL playoffs currently unfolding, the storylines in football circles revolve around the usual topics—Can Peyton Manning win another Superbowl, can Tom Brady get a step closer to winning the most of all-time, can Aaron Rodgers do what Brett Favre couldn’t (win two), can Tony Romo win one? Even though we do not get quite the same amount of NFL and NBA coverage in Canada as we would in the States, it is still common to hear about the globalized stars in those sports and how many championships they have or have not won. Perhaps it is the influence of those...

81

For the first time since the 2003-04 season, the Maple Leafs won 20 games before the official NHL winter break. But, in the eight full seasons between accomplishments, never had the team played over 60% of their games before the winter break at home. The Leafs went into Christmas with a 14-8-0 record at home specifically; nobody else in the league had more than 13 wins at home. According to Sporting Charts, “Over the 2013 NHL season, the average Home % - Away % among NHL teams was 0.08.” It was a 0.11 difference in 2011-12. This tells us what...

219

With a minute left in the second period against the Los Angeles Kings, a familiar sight for Toronto Maple Leaf fans was taking place as their top line was on the ice and hemmed in their own zone. The Kings would score that shift—albeit a weak goal—against the Leafs three worst possession players at that time in the game (James van Riemsdyk was the highest at 22CF%). On their first shift of the third period, they got scored on again.  For the night, they were the three worst possession forwards on the team. They also combined for two goals for. The trio...

468

There is a well-known saying among hockey executives that goes, “Sometimes the best moves are the ones you don’t make.” When Brendan Shanahan was hired as President of the Maple Leafs, the venom in the room at his press conference was evident. Fans, media and bloggers wanted blood as the 2013-14 campaign came to a close. The core had failed in spectacular fashion for a third year in a row, they were full of big money players who have warts to their games, had little cap space, and they were not even in the conversation to acquire any of the big-name centers available....

308

There isn't an elephant in the room when it comes to the Leafs defense, but the question of what to do is bubbling below the surface. If you include Stuart Percy in the starting six for next season, the Leafs already have their top-6 group under contract: Dion Phaneuf, Jake Gardiner, Morgan Rielly, Roman Polak, Stephane Robidas and Percy are all signed going into the 2015-2016 season. The person missing from that group signed next season? Cody Franson, who you can make a pretty strong argument for being the Leafs strongest defenseman this year. He is a free agent. Still only 28,...

105

The Toronto Maple Leafs have officially played a quarter of their season, and we are still no closer to figuring out where this team will finish once 82 games is up. Before the start of the season, we posted our annual season predictions on MLHS and I wrote, in part: “I can make a case for this team to finish in the top 5 in the East, or the bottom five in the East, and I think both would be reasonably valid. Neither would surprise me. They have great goaltending, a good power play, some depth scoring, and some nice defensemen....

218

This past weekend, Pat Burns was inducted into the Hockey Hall of Fame despite no longer being with us. It served as a stark reminder that we should celebrate the hockey world's great individuals while they are still here. This coincides with the unfortunate announcement last week that Bryan Murray’s cancer has spread to his liver and lungs. He’s in stage 4, and there is no stage 5. In light of these events, I want to take a few minutes to highlight a great and successful hockey mind before it is too late. Many people often talk about the old guard of hockey GMs...

93

The 2013-14 season marked the first time since the 1989-90 campaign that no goalie played more than 65 games. https://twitter.com/cmasisak22/status/456305105310986241 That was, of course, an Olympic year with a condensed schedule. While I expect we will get at least a few goalies playing 65+ games this season – Cory Schneider has started every game for NJ this season — this might be the start of a trend. In 2011-12, 10 goalies played 65+ games. Four of them now have good young backups (Niemi-Stalock, Quick-Jones, Pavelec-Hutchinson, Price-Tokarski), Miikka Kiprusoff is out of the league, Cam Ward is being surpassed by his backup, and...

401

A 3-0 week quieted the “blow it up” talk in Toronto, but it will inevitably rear its ugly head again. Rebuilding the team entirely would be the wrong call though. Shedding some big contracts, however, may not be. If we use the Pittsburgh Penguins as an example, tanking is a long and arduous process. Pittsburgh drafted Sidney Crosby first overall in 2005, which many people associate with the start of the rebuild. If drafting first overall is start of a rebuild, their rebuild really started in 2003 when they drafted Marc Andre Fleury with the top pick. They ended up winning the Cup in 2009, drafting...

352

When Kyle Dubas was named GM of the Sault Ste. Marie Greyhounds, one of the first things he did was buy every member of the front office a copy of Jonah Keri’s 'The Extra 2%.' For those of you who have not read the book, it archives the Tampa Bay Rays rise to prominence after a near decade of failure. Baseball Prospectus wrote a review summarizing the plot: The book’s title refers to Rays owner Stuart Sternberg’s philosophy that rather than attempt to lap the field—an unrealistic goal, given the team’s financial realities and the challenge posed by sharing a division with baseball’s...