Marlies Notebook – October 15

by on October 15, 2012 in MLHS Notebook, Toronto Marlies - 400 Comments

Marlies Notebook – October 15
Photo: Marlies.ca
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Photo: Marlies.ca

Since there’s no NHL to speak of at the moment, Leafs Notebook is turning into Marlies Notebook until this lockout is over.

Here’s the thing though: with different leagues comes different expectations and viewing experiences.

When it comes to watching and evaluating the NHL, it’s very simple: winning is all that matters. Each team in the league continuously tries to get better, figuring out how to start winning or continue winning. In the AHL, that is not necessarily the case. At the end of the day the Marlies will probably be judged by many based on the win and loss column, but what really matters – to me – is the progression of their players and how they can eventually help the Leafs win at the next level.

Thus, what will be focused on most here in this space is not really winning and losing, but how these players are progressing and, more importantly, how they can help the Leafs win hockey games whenever the NHL starts up again. Of course, the Marlies accomplishments will be pointed out too, but as I said the main focus is still with an eye towards the Leafs and how these guys can help the NHL team.

One other thing: The Marlies have played two games at this point. For some players, it was their first taste of pro hockey altogether. Let’s give them some time to get their feet wet before we really start critiquing them.

On that note, here are some observations from this past weekend’s back-to-back games:

- In October, Chris Johnston of the Canadian Press wrote this article about the relationship between Randy Carlyle and Dallas Eakins. It includes some of the system adjustments the Marlies will be making this year in order to play Carlyle hockey. The basic premise of the defensive system involves out numbering the opposition in the defensive zone. It is an interesting concept that will be fun to monitor as the season progresses. None of the goals scored against Toronto this weekend could be blamed on it as the Amerks scored on a power play, while Erie also had one power play goal, a goal scored by an individual effort and another scored off a misplayed dump-in on top of an empty netter. Meaning, there’s no real breakdown in the newly implemented system for us to discuss.

- While the Marlies lost against Erie, they dominated the game so it wasn’t really a great game to get a good look at the system. Against the Amerks it was also pretty one-sided, but there was a stretch in the second period where they got hemmed in their zone for an extended period of time where you could see the team chasing the puck a lot. That is the major downside to the system. Conversely, on many shifts the Marlies have sent two or even three guys into board battles, come out with the puck, and broken out of the zone cleanly after that.

- Another big part of Carlyle’s system is that he likes to use the middle of the ice more when it comes to breaking out. The Marlies have been doing this in two ways. The first is their defencemen, namely Gardiner, simply skating it out through the open ice on their own. The second has been a D to D pass followed by a quick pass up the middle to a center that cuts low below the faceoff dot; the center then makes the quick decision on whether he should pass it to either winger or skate it up himself.

- The Marlies appear to be skating the puck into the zone more often than not so far this year, but I’m not sure that’s a reflection on the Leafs style of play to be. I’d assume Carlyle’s system is more catered towards his specific lines. In other words, Kessel’s line will probably rarely dump it in, whereas McClement’s will most likely do so regularly.

- One last thing the about the Marlies system worth pointing out: when protecting a lead in the last minute of play they had their center, in this case Zigomanis, stay in the defensive zone near the goaltender and goal line when the opposition had the puck in the neutral zone. This was something even Ron Wilson had the team do in order to prevent teams from dumping the puck in behind the D-men who were standing up forwards at the blue line. It wasn’t necessarily pretty, but it was effective.

- Although it is not exactly news to many at this point, it’s probably time to consider Nazem Kadri a full-time winger. He played wing in the playoffs last year mixed with some center on a line with Zigomanis and Hamilton, and now he’s playing full-time wing to start the year. It’s probably for the best, anyways. There should be a spot alongside Mikhail Grabovski open for him sometime soon.

- On the other side of Kadri has been Carter Ashton. That means they are using his big body to complement skill in Kadri and Aucoin. Where Ashton continues to play will be something to monitor; if he’s going to play on what’s essentially the top line, he’s going to need to produce at a noteworthy and consistent pace. To this point he has failed to really create anything, but again it’s only two games. On the power play he has seen a steady shift as a floating net presence. That means he’ll stand in front of the net, and then float out to the top of the circle as a one-timer option. I’ve always personally felt that net presences work best when they literally just plant themselves in front of the goalie and don’t move, drawing a defender to them and driving the guy in net crazy (Keith Tkachuk comes to mind). A floating presence kind of defeats that purpose. I’ll be paying attention to see if that play continues and if he remains on the top line. Ashton was played as a grinder with the Leafs and that appears much more suited to his skillset.

- Leo Komarov got burned pretty hard against Lake Erie thinking he could pick-pocket Tyson Barrie at the Marlies blue line. The young defender spun around him then went down and scored a beauty of a goal. It’s a good learning experience because, against good players in the NHL, you are going to get burned if you get caught with your hand in the cookie jar, so to speak. And Barrie isn’t even a good NHLer yet. Other than that, Komarov has been finishing all his checks as advertised, which isn’t surprising because he did that in the World Championships consistently. He’s been a pest so to speak, but he clearly has to adjust to the North American game. This time in the AHL will actually be good for him. If the lockout lifts he’s going to be in a battle to win a spot on an energy and/or grinding line.

- D’Amigo is another guy who could possibly win a spot on the Leafs in that kind of role. The tough thing right now when it comes to the Marlies is that they have been rolling their lines when they can on account of their depth, which makes it harder to evaluate a player a like D’Amigo in a shutdown role. I thought this year we might have seen D’Amigo get power play time and used a little more offensively, but it has been penalty killing and defensive assignments so far for him. His role for the Leafs, should he make it, is pretty clear at this point.

- By the same token, Holzer’s role has specifically been a shutdown defender who sees top penalty killing time. Sounds like Brian Burke’s ideal third pairing defender.

- Jake Gardiner has been receiving a lot of attention from fans but he is someone I won’t spend much time on here. We already know he is an NHLer. He was going end-to-end in his rookie season in the big-league, so of course he’s going to be able to do it in the AHL. He’ll grow his offensive confidence and log a ton of ice-time, but realistically, there’s nothing to really say about him. He’s at the point where he needs to be challenged by NHLers. Jordan Eberle and RNH BOTH didn’t even get points in their first two games this season. There’s not much to say about these guys sent down due to the lockout. They’ll turn it on eventually, but it is what it is — they are NHLers in the AHL due to the lockout.

- Joe Colborne is coming back from surgery and still looks like he has to get his game going, but he has the zip back on his passes. The mustard he put on a cross ice pass to Ryan Hamilton for a tap in goal was something he could not do last year after he got hurt. He is getting predictable with that play, but on the whole it very much looks like the once-raw center project is starting to figure it out. When he was drafted everyone knew he was pretty raw, which really just means a little patience and teaching is required.

- Colborne might actually be the player benefiting most from the lockout in the organization because he isn’t ready to put up good numbers as an NHL center. In the AHL he is getting quality line-mates and buying development time. Like Kadri, he too will soon need a serious look at the NHL level over an extended period of time.

- The waiting game is also helping Matt Frattin, too. According to this Star report, he is expected back in about two weeks or so. I think it’s safe to say we’re all excited to see him play.

That’s it from me for now. It’s going to be a long season, especially if there’s no NHL, so we’ll try our best here to make it as entertaining as possible. The good news is that there are a ton of players on the Marlies who should eventually become NHLers so it’s not like we’re talking about plugs. What’s also good news is that the Marlies are really good. There are also a few Leafs prospects we’ll talk about throughout the year. Plus, who knows when Burke is going to open his mouth next? In other words, we’ll have stuff to talk about.

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  • MSM

    The core prob in places like Phoenix, Islanders, Columbus is no revenue outside of tickets and shitty local TV deals.

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  • http://www.hockey-nerd.com Cameron

    I don’t think he’ll ever relocate to Markham.  It would have to be an expansion.  But the point is, if you remove those two massive losers, finding 80 million dollars really isn’t that hard.  

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  • DefenceWinsChampionships

    Contraction is an interesting idea. The other day, I looked at a 6-team contraction scenario, involving a contraction draft. Pretty fun stuff. 

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  • MSM

    Not bad, sort of like Game of Thrones, without beheadings so far

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  • Burtonboy

    Too much of the revenue is tied up in too few teams . Thats the single biggest issue and it throws the whole system out of wack. The problem is it would be hard to take a substantial amount of that revenue away from those teams . They can pay more for sure but they can’t be single handedly expected to do it all.

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  • MSM

    I just wonder how many teams spend above their individual revenue potential. And why no one cares when they’re doing it.

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  • MSM

    Three or four teams revenues drive up the cap floor beyond the means of 18 teams at least.

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  • Burtonboy

    He will only do expansion in Markem and I believe he’s aming for the same thing in QC as well  Some relocation would help but Bettman is incredibly stubborn about that.

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  • http://www.hockey-nerd.com Cameron

    Salary Floor: 45 million
    Salary Cap (Soft): 60 million
    Salary Cap (Hard): 75 million
    -
    Luxury Tax Brackets:
    -
    60-62 million: 120%
    62-65 million: 140%
    65-70 million: 150%
    70-75 million: 175%
    -
    As an example, a team spending 72 million would pay 5.6 million dollars in luxury tax, which would go directly to the bottom feeders of the league based on a certain criteria.  If the top six teams are all in that range, you have 33.6 million of my predicted 80 million to help balance the league.  
    -
    And, it’s hardly even a burden on those top 6 teams.  You could definitely have more aggressive brackets if you really wanted to.  Honestly, what’s the difference between 72 and 78 million to MLSE…especially if we make the playoffs thanks to a competitive edge? 

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  • http://www.hockey-nerd.com Cameron

    So collapse now, and expand as opportunities arise.  I think the time to collapse is now.

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  • Burtonboy

    Have you ever actually looked to see how many teams spend to the floor? I could be wrong here as I haven’t looked closely but most teams are spending closer to the ceiling then they are to the floor I think

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  • Burtonboy

    Players might have something to say about that lol

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  • http://www.hockey-nerd.com Cameron

    The Islanders, Avalanche, Stars and Blues are all very responsibly near the floor.  The Panthers usually are too, but Tallon seems to have been given more leash than previous GMs.  The Hurricanes were usually a floor team, too.  Tampa is the only one I can think of that outrageously overspends money they don’t have. 

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  • Burtonboy

    Over 1/2 the league are presently over 60 mil. The next six at between 55 -60

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  • mcloki

    I love this plan. Do you mind if I take credit for it.

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  • http://www.hockey-nerd.com Cameron

    They shouldn’t though.  A strong league will ultimately benefit them.  And like I’ve said in previous versions of this discussion, there are ways to satisfy them in this argument.  
    -
    Who from the PA will lose jobs if the league contracts?  4th liners. My solution would be simple: mandate teams to designate 1-3 “call-up” players, who would receive NHL salary regardless of their league status. Or create a new salary bracket (ie. 300K) for those tweener players, and make it easy for players to be in that bracket.

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  • Burtonboy

    LOL I think they would kick up massive shit over that 

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  • http://www.hockey-nerd.com Cameron

    I think this is a bad time to evaluate that.  Teams were told to spend to a 54 million dollar floor, and many owners are probably expecting rollbacks of some kind.  In some cases, owners may not even expect to pay salaries this year, so of course they were a little more liberal in that department.  At the very least, that 60 million is going to get pro-rated.

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  • http://www.hockey-nerd.com Cameron

    Maybe, but it’s honestly in their best interest.  They’re being phased out of the league anyways, so creating that tweener bracket is a nice fall-back for guys who might otherwise be making 65 grand. 

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  • Burtonboy

    Yeah lots of factors to consider for sure. Anyway Its getting late here on the east coast and I’m going to bed pretty soon.  I sincerely hope the league does make an offer in the next few days because I really don’t see it coming from the PA any time soon.

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  • http://www.hockey-nerd.com Cameron

    Yea, I should’ve gone to bed an hour ago, lol.  Later.

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  • Burtonboy

    Later folks 

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  • Alec_Brownscombe

     Thanks for the posts. Having to learn more about labour negotiations than I ever hoped to find out. Night bud.

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  • Optimustic

    Morning folks, hopefully we see some movement from both sides today.  

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  • WendelGilmour

    The Leafs are finding places for players they sent to ECHL. Fort Wayne isn’t the only destination;

    Kyle Cicerella ‏@KyleTheReporterToronto hasn’t officially named its ECHL affiliation and, although Fort Wayne has been talked, Sam Carrick was assigned to Idaho #Marlies

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