Marlies Notebook – October 15

by on October 15, 2012 in MLHS Notebook, Toronto Marlies - 400 Comments

Marlies Notebook – October 15
Photo: Marlies.ca
Share

Photo: Marlies.ca

Since there’s no NHL to speak of at the moment, Leafs Notebook is turning into Marlies Notebook until this lockout is over.

Here’s the thing though: with different leagues comes different expectations and viewing experiences.

When it comes to watching and evaluating the NHL, it’s very simple: winning is all that matters. Each team in the league continuously tries to get better, figuring out how to start winning or continue winning. In the AHL, that is not necessarily the case. At the end of the day the Marlies will probably be judged by many based on the win and loss column, but what really matters – to me – is the progression of their players and how they can eventually help the Leafs win at the next level.

Thus, what will be focused on most here in this space is not really winning and losing, but how these players are progressing and, more importantly, how they can help the Leafs win hockey games whenever the NHL starts up again. Of course, the Marlies accomplishments will be pointed out too, but as I said the main focus is still with an eye towards the Leafs and how these guys can help the NHL team.

One other thing: The Marlies have played two games at this point. For some players, it was their first taste of pro hockey altogether. Let’s give them some time to get their feet wet before we really start critiquing them.

On that note, here are some observations from this past weekend’s back-to-back games:

- In October, Chris Johnston of the Canadian Press wrote this article about the relationship between Randy Carlyle and Dallas Eakins. It includes some of the system adjustments the Marlies will be making this year in order to play Carlyle hockey. The basic premise of the defensive system involves out numbering the opposition in the defensive zone. It is an interesting concept that will be fun to monitor as the season progresses. None of the goals scored against Toronto this weekend could be blamed on it as the Amerks scored on a power play, while Erie also had one power play goal, a goal scored by an individual effort and another scored off a misplayed dump-in on top of an empty netter. Meaning, there’s no real breakdown in the newly implemented system for us to discuss.

- While the Marlies lost against Erie, they dominated the game so it wasn’t really a great game to get a good look at the system. Against the Amerks it was also pretty one-sided, but there was a stretch in the second period where they got hemmed in their zone for an extended period of time where you could see the team chasing the puck a lot. That is the major downside to the system. Conversely, on many shifts the Marlies have sent two or even three guys into board battles, come out with the puck, and broken out of the zone cleanly after that.

- Another big part of Carlyle’s system is that he likes to use the middle of the ice more when it comes to breaking out. The Marlies have been doing this in two ways. The first is their defencemen, namely Gardiner, simply skating it out through the open ice on their own. The second has been a D to D pass followed by a quick pass up the middle to a center that cuts low below the faceoff dot; the center then makes the quick decision on whether he should pass it to either winger or skate it up himself.

- The Marlies appear to be skating the puck into the zone more often than not so far this year, but I’m not sure that’s a reflection on the Leafs style of play to be. I’d assume Carlyle’s system is more catered towards his specific lines. In other words, Kessel’s line will probably rarely dump it in, whereas McClement’s will most likely do so regularly.

- One last thing the about the Marlies system worth pointing out: when protecting a lead in the last minute of play they had their center, in this case Zigomanis, stay in the defensive zone near the goaltender and goal line when the opposition had the puck in the neutral zone. This was something even Ron Wilson had the team do in order to prevent teams from dumping the puck in behind the D-men who were standing up forwards at the blue line. It wasn’t necessarily pretty, but it was effective.

- Although it is not exactly news to many at this point, it’s probably time to consider Nazem Kadri a full-time winger. He played wing in the playoffs last year mixed with some center on a line with Zigomanis and Hamilton, and now he’s playing full-time wing to start the year. It’s probably for the best, anyways. There should be a spot alongside Mikhail Grabovski open for him sometime soon.

- On the other side of Kadri has been Carter Ashton. That means they are using his big body to complement skill in Kadri and Aucoin. Where Ashton continues to play will be something to monitor; if he’s going to play on what’s essentially the top line, he’s going to need to produce at a noteworthy and consistent pace. To this point he has failed to really create anything, but again it’s only two games. On the power play he has seen a steady shift as a floating net presence. That means he’ll stand in front of the net, and then float out to the top of the circle as a one-timer option. I’ve always personally felt that net presences work best when they literally just plant themselves in front of the goalie and don’t move, drawing a defender to them and driving the guy in net crazy (Keith Tkachuk comes to mind). A floating presence kind of defeats that purpose. I’ll be paying attention to see if that play continues and if he remains on the top line. Ashton was played as a grinder with the Leafs and that appears much more suited to his skillset.

- Leo Komarov got burned pretty hard against Lake Erie thinking he could pick-pocket Tyson Barrie at the Marlies blue line. The young defender spun around him then went down and scored a beauty of a goal. It’s a good learning experience because, against good players in the NHL, you are going to get burned if you get caught with your hand in the cookie jar, so to speak. And Barrie isn’t even a good NHLer yet. Other than that, Komarov has been finishing all his checks as advertised, which isn’t surprising because he did that in the World Championships consistently. He’s been a pest so to speak, but he clearly has to adjust to the North American game. This time in the AHL will actually be good for him. If the lockout lifts he’s going to be in a battle to win a spot on an energy and/or grinding line.

- D’Amigo is another guy who could possibly win a spot on the Leafs in that kind of role. The tough thing right now when it comes to the Marlies is that they have been rolling their lines when they can on account of their depth, which makes it harder to evaluate a player a like D’Amigo in a shutdown role. I thought this year we might have seen D’Amigo get power play time and used a little more offensively, but it has been penalty killing and defensive assignments so far for him. His role for the Leafs, should he make it, is pretty clear at this point.

- By the same token, Holzer’s role has specifically been a shutdown defender who sees top penalty killing time. Sounds like Brian Burke’s ideal third pairing defender.

- Jake Gardiner has been receiving a lot of attention from fans but he is someone I won’t spend much time on here. We already know he is an NHLer. He was going end-to-end in his rookie season in the big-league, so of course he’s going to be able to do it in the AHL. He’ll grow his offensive confidence and log a ton of ice-time, but realistically, there’s nothing to really say about him. He’s at the point where he needs to be challenged by NHLers. Jordan Eberle and RNH BOTH didn’t even get points in their first two games this season. There’s not much to say about these guys sent down due to the lockout. They’ll turn it on eventually, but it is what it is — they are NHLers in the AHL due to the lockout.

- Joe Colborne is coming back from surgery and still looks like he has to get his game going, but he has the zip back on his passes. The mustard he put on a cross ice pass to Ryan Hamilton for a tap in goal was something he could not do last year after he got hurt. He is getting predictable with that play, but on the whole it very much looks like the once-raw center project is starting to figure it out. When he was drafted everyone knew he was pretty raw, which really just means a little patience and teaching is required.

- Colborne might actually be the player benefiting most from the lockout in the organization because he isn’t ready to put up good numbers as an NHL center. In the AHL he is getting quality line-mates and buying development time. Like Kadri, he too will soon need a serious look at the NHL level over an extended period of time.

- The waiting game is also helping Matt Frattin, too. According to this Star report, he is expected back in about two weeks or so. I think it’s safe to say we’re all excited to see him play.

That’s it from me for now. It’s going to be a long season, especially if there’s no NHL, so we’ll try our best here to make it as entertaining as possible. The good news is that there are a ton of players on the Marlies who should eventually become NHLers so it’s not like we’re talking about plugs. What’s also good news is that the Marlies are really good. There are also a few Leafs prospects we’ll talk about throughout the year. Plus, who knows when Burke is going to open his mouth next? In other words, we’ll have stuff to talk about.

VN:F [1.9.22_1171]
Rating: 0.0/10 (0 votes cast)
VN:F [1.9.22_1171]
Rating: 0 (from 0 votes)

Print article

  • Waiting4LSC

    Bboy, I understand and respect your points. My issue is with the due diligence the NHL does in terms of awarding franchises. This, for me, is one of the root causes. 

    VA:F [1.9.22_1171]
    Rating: 0.0/5 (0 votes cast)
    VA:F [1.9.22_1171]
    Rating: 0 (from 0 votes)
  • Waiting4LSC

    50:50 eh. You are in a good place for settling.

    VA:F [1.9.22_1171]
    Rating: 0.0/5 (0 votes cast)
    VA:F [1.9.22_1171]
    Rating: 0 (from 0 votes)
  • djamon

    Boy…that’s a real can of worms there. They awarded a franchise to a TB group led by Phil Esposito…none of whom had any money. There was a group buying the Islanders who basically lied about their wealth, and they came very close to getting that team. 

    But it was all these expansion fees they were after.

    VA:F [1.9.22_1171]
    Rating: 0.0/5 (0 votes cast)
    VA:F [1.9.22_1171]
    Rating: 0 (from 0 votes)
  • http://www.hockey-nerd.com Cameron

    Well, in Phoenix, it’s not the awarding of the franchise that was the problem.  It worked there for a while.  It’s just that the new arena is in a terrible location that will never work.  Tampa and Florida have both shown they can work in the past.  The Preds are slowly climbing into where they need to be.  There was always going to be bumps along the way.  But I think it’s time to cut losses in Phoenix, get rid of Columbus, and try some new strategies with the Florida teams.

    VA:F [1.9.22_1171]
    Rating: 0.0/5 (0 votes cast)
    VA:F [1.9.22_1171]
    Rating: 0 (from 0 votes)
  • Alec_Brownscombe

    Thanks for putting into words what has always made so much sense to me. Not a huge follower of baseball and the comparison is by no means perfect but at least to an outsider’s view the MLB is towing the line really well with that system. Baseball has seen 10 different MLB champions since 2001 (only the Red Sox have won twice). Sure as Jays fans we have seen the difficulty and frustration in competing with the likes of the Red Sox and Yankees at times but it’s been proven possible by every other team in the division except the Jays in the last few years. Might be more of a Jays problem. On the flip side, Yankees and Red Sox fans know the big dollars they pay for tickets actually contribute to their team’s success – that whole paying more for a better product thing we Leafs fans know nothing about.

    Want a 30 team league with these awful sunbelt markets without sticking the players with the tab? Seems like the happy medium.

    VA:F [1.9.22_1171]
    Rating: 0.0/5 (0 votes cast)
    VA:F [1.9.22_1171]
    Rating: 0 (from 0 votes)
  • MSM

    I think keeping the cap floor just $15 million below the ceiling no matter what was a bad calculation. Floor would have been $54 million this year, and four years ago that was the ceiling. How is a team like Columbus ever going to catch up, even with a new CBA, when they pay to play in their rink, have no parking, concessions or naming rights. The league put them there, just like Phoenix, because they didn’t have to build their own rink which made it more attractive to investors at the time.

    VA:F [1.9.22_1171]
    Rating: 0.0/5 (0 votes cast)
    VA:F [1.9.22_1171]
    Rating: 0 (from 0 votes)
  • Waiting4LSC

    Cam: Agreed. The NHL has to take some tough decisions on what it has, and some aggressive (financially sound) actions to strengthen financial viability of the teams and generate a solid TV viewing audience.

    VA:F [1.9.22_1171]
    Rating: 0.0/5 (0 votes cast)
    VA:F [1.9.22_1171]
    Rating: 0 (from 0 votes)
  • MSM

    Way bad head math. Over $90 mil for Kovi over contract. But I still feel the same.

    VA:F [1.9.22_1171]
    Rating: 0.0/5 (0 votes cast)
    VA:F [1.9.22_1171]
    Rating: 0 (from 0 votes)
  • Burtonboy

    You do know that the luxury tax in baseball doesn’t go to revenue sharing . It used to pay player benefits and to fund the growth of the game outside the US . How in the name of god can a luxury tax generate enough to address the issues the NHL has.

    VA:F [1.9.22_1171]
    Rating: 0.0/5 (0 votes cast)
    VA:F [1.9.22_1171]
    Rating: 0 (from 0 votes)
  • Waiting4LSC

    Alec, absolutely agree, but it is the size of the TV revenue that makes the whole thing work.

    VA:F [1.9.22_1171]
    Rating: 0.0/5 (0 votes cast)
    VA:F [1.9.22_1171]
    Rating: 0 (from 0 votes)
  • Alec_Brownscombe

    Had no idea, thanks. That’ll teach me for speaking on leagues I know nothing about.

    VA:F [1.9.22_1171]
    Rating: 0.0/5 (0 votes cast)
    VA:F [1.9.22_1171]
    Rating: 0 (from 0 votes)
  • Waiting4LSC

    Bboy: If the top 6 teams exceed the soft cap, and say each end up paying $10M in revenue share, but are able to go deep in the playoffs does it not have a mutually beneficial ring to it.

    VA:F [1.9.22_1171]
    Rating: 0.0/5 (0 votes cast)
    VA:F [1.9.22_1171]
    Rating: 0 (from 0 votes)
  • DefenceWinsChampionships

    If the Forbes numbers are right, it would take almost half the profit from the money-making teams. Doesn’t sound great, but a luxury tax or soft cap system could be used as an incentive. 

    In any case, losing half their profit is better than losing it all, which is what happens while the league has the players locked out. 

    Same goes for the players, who should be willing to take a bit of a drop in % of revenue to get back to playing hockey. 

    Take a small chunk of the % of revenue from the players, create a luxury tax or soft cap system and increase revenue-sharing. Doesn’t seem to difficult. Everyone is just too greedy. 

    Even the lowest-earning players probably net 5x what the average North American does per year. I understand that they shouldn’t give up money just because they have it, but NOBODY wins during the lockout. Getting a deal done is the best thing for both sides, even if they both have to give up a bit. 

    VA:F [1.9.22_1171]
    Rating: 0.0/5 (0 votes cast)
    VA:F [1.9.22_1171]
    Rating: 0 (from 0 votes)
  • Burtonboy

    Only found out a couple of day ago lol. I also found out the the Luxury tax doesn’t generate anywhere near what people think. The yanks account for 85 % of whats been paid over the last 5 yrs . Something over 200 mil I think 

    VA:F [1.9.22_1171]
    Rating: 0.0/5 (0 votes cast)
    VA:F [1.9.22_1171]
    Rating: 0 (from 0 votes)
  • Burtonboy

    Not a chance in hell those teams will agree to a 50% cut in profits 

    VA:F [1.9.22_1171]
    Rating: 0.0/5 (0 votes cast)
    VA:F [1.9.22_1171]
    Rating: 0 (from 0 votes)
  • djamon

    Nor should they. It’s supposed to be an advantage to be successfully run.

    VA:F [1.9.22_1171]
    Rating: 0.0/5 (0 votes cast)
    VA:F [1.9.22_1171]
    Rating: 0 (from 0 votes)
  • Alec_Brownscombe

    That was going to be my next question. How many teams legitimately pay into it and how many would in the NHL scenario? Probably just the same few that make the league’s total revenue look so deceivingly promising.

    The cap has reached what the Leafs used to spend pre-2005. A luxury tax would certainly give us the answer to the age old question as to whether or not MLSE really cares about winning, wouldn’t it? ;)

    VA:F [1.9.22_1171]
    Rating: 0.0/5 (0 votes cast)
    VA:F [1.9.22_1171]
    Rating: 0 (from 0 votes)
  • Burtonboy

    Yeah for sure it would. I just can’t see it giving enough back to correct the problems.

    VA:F [1.9.22_1171]
    Rating: 0.0/5 (0 votes cast)
    VA:F [1.9.22_1171]
    Rating: 0 (from 0 votes)
  • Alec_Brownscombe

    You’re probably right. I love it in theory, but it’s peanuts in the big picture.

    VA:F [1.9.22_1171]
    Rating: 0.0/5 (0 votes cast)
    VA:F [1.9.22_1171]
    Rating: 0 (from 0 votes)
  • http://www.hockey-nerd.com Cameron

    Okay, let me take a shot at the math on this one.  
    -
    Assume we can collapse Phoenix and Columbus:
    -
    So 16 teams are combining for 80 million in losses, or an average of 5 million per team.  Somehow, we need the top 6 teams, who make 220 million dollars, to help pay for part of those losses.  We need the next 6 highest earners to contribute something to the pot.  We also need the players to concede something to push everyone into the black.  Between these three groups, I’m sure we can come up with 80 million dollars a year.-How much does the players reducing their share from 57% to 50% account for in actual dollars?  That should be a substantial chunk of change right there.
    -
    Now, lets realign the divisions. Suddenly you have Tampa and Florida not losing quite so much thanks to the steady stream of snowbirds catching the Leafs, Habs and Sens whenever they stop by to take the kids to Disney world.  
    -
    Lets put the Hurricanes in the division with the Rangers, Capitals, Penguins and Flyers, and give the people of Raleigh a constant supply of elite star power coming into their building.  Suddenly we’re not just selling the same old Eric Staal model (now with brother Jordan), but we’re also marketing Crosby, Malkin, Kovalchuk, Giroux, Tavares, Letang, Ovechkin, and so forth.  Something new.  This should help put the Canes back on their feet.
    -
    Lets get the Devils back on their feet by putting them in a division that makes sense.  Now they’re with the Jets, Hawks, Wings and so on, and now their fans can actually watch them on television at an hour that makes sense.  A money maker returns, leaving only the Avalanche as a once strong team that needs revitalization.
    -
    With these changes, you’ve probably got the situation reasonably under control, but take it a step further anyways.
    -
    60 million dollar soft cap, 75 million dollar hard cap.  Additional revenue sharing will be applied to teams who spend in the 45-50 million range based on the overspending of (presumably) the top 6 teams.   Say the top 6 spend on average, 72 million. If we apply a luxury tax of 175% to all dollars over 70 million, that would be 54 million dollars going straight into the pockets of the 4-6 weakest teams.  And despite this, the Leafs, Red Wings and so on, still aren’t REALLY spending what they did on salaries before the cap was implemented anyways.  81 million in 2013 being much less than 75 million pre-2004.
    -
    Gotta bite the bullet and bury the shittiest two franchises though….

    VA:F [1.9.22_1171]
    Rating: 0.0/5 (0 votes cast)
    VA:F [1.9.22_1171]
    Rating: 0 (from 0 votes)
  • MSM

    So another problem, if Tampa Bay is losing cash why is their salary budget higher than the Rangers (that’s for this season under the old CBA). They don’t Have to spend $63 million an lose a couple million bucks.

    VA:F [1.9.22_1171]
    Rating: 0.0/5 (0 votes cast)
    VA:F [1.9.22_1171]
    Rating: 0 (from 0 votes)
  • Burtonboy

    God what’s so friggin hard about a 50/50 deal. Let players keep their  dollars this year but over time lower the spit to 50/50 . Make some adjustments on the contract to get rid of the cap circumvention and lets play hockey ffs

    VA:F [1.9.22_1171]
    Rating: 0.0/5 (0 votes cast)
    VA:F [1.9.22_1171]
    Rating: 0 (from 0 votes)
  • Burtonboy

    Sounds like a plan but I would try to relocate rather then bury those teams . But that said I would bet we see those team remain where they are and Bettman expands the league by 2 more teams. QC and either Seattle or Markam lol

    VA:F [1.9.22_1171]
    Rating: 0.0/5 (0 votes cast)
    VA:F [1.9.22_1171]
    Rating: 0 (from 0 votes)
  • http://www.hockey-nerd.com Cameron

    4 different owners in last 5 years probably explains that. 

    VA:F [1.9.22_1171]
    Rating: 0.0/5 (0 votes cast)
    VA:F [1.9.22_1171]
    Rating: 0 (from 0 votes)
  • DefenceWinsChampionships

    Well that is if the revenue-sharing increase is the only strategy to help out the bottom teams. As I said before, the players’ % of revenue should be lowered a bit too. 

    But everyone is just too greedy. That’s the problem. 

    VA:F [1.9.22_1171]
    Rating: 0.0/5 (0 votes cast)
    VA:F [1.9.22_1171]
    Rating: 0 (from 0 votes)