Home Morning Mashup Chance of a Kessel extension, sooner rather than later?

Chance of a Kessel extension, sooner rather than later?

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While Phil Kessel told reporters yesterday that no talks have taken place as of yet, assistant general manager Dave Poulin has hinted at the possibility of something developing in the next few days as it relates to a new contract extension for the noted pugilist.

This is welcome news for me. There is something disconcerting about a drawn-out, after-season Kessel negotiation. The longer the Leafs leave this means the greater the likelihood something will go wrong, before next thing you know… there goes the neighbourhood. Knowing Kessel doesn’t want to negotiate during the season – we don’t know for sure that this stance is inflexible, but assuming it is – could very well mean this goes down to the wire if a deal doesn’t get done soon. Ask Lou Lamoriello if it’s a good idea to trust your ability to get a deal done with a big-name UFA at the eleventh hour.

I may come off here like I’m all for rushing to hand Kessel a blank cheque before October 1st, but it goes without saying this could not be more unlike the hardball RFA negotiations that dragged (or are still dragging) on in Leafland this summer and fall.

Traditionally, when the Leafs have negotiated major contracts with in-house players, the maximum contract length they’ve handed out is 5 years. Tomas Kaberle got a 5-year deal in 2006. Bryan McCabe got a 5-year contract later that year. If I recall correctly, Mats Sundin was signed to separate deals of 3 and then 5 years in length when he was in his prime, but this was back when players were RFAs until they were near retirement.

In terms of recent examples, the Leafs got out well ahead of UFA with Lupul, giving him a 5-year extension before the start of last season. Bozak, technically in this conversation, got 5 years on an inflated deal the night before free agency.

The Leafs‘ theory, at least as it was explained under Burke, was that contracts longer than 5 years do not keep the fire burning in the player’s belly with the same ferocity. Overlong term deals can be coach killers that both hurt the team and the player’s reputation in the long run. Burke always admitted, however, that he would break this rule of thumb if he felt there was ever a player worth breaking it for, in terms of character and ability.

If the Leafs want to stick by the aforementioned credo with Kessel, they’re going to have to pay up big time over those 5 years. They would be giving Kessel a huge raise, possibly to the tune of $3.5 million above his current $5.4 million salary, effective next July 1, at a time when their 2014-15 column on capgeek looks like a Christmas tree. If they sign something closer to the max (7 or 8 years), they can save some money on the annual AAV by working with the year-to-year variance a little more, but would be bearing more of a risk on a player who is, statistically speaking, currently already playing at his production peak (which is, statistically, 25/26 years old).

I like to think that Kessel would love nothing more than to be here long term, but if he wants to dig his heels in on guaranteed big money for the next 8 years, another team if not the Leafs will give it to him. If that’s what it takes, and it saves us on the cap hit in the short run, I say do what must be done.

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Thanks to @MLHS_Aaron for putting the links together this morning…

Morning Links

BCP: Puck Handling: How Jonathan Bernier can help TorontoSomething, I’m sure, many of us have already taken note of in the preseason. Bernier is not Brodeur, but his puck handling abilities should help our d-zone exits.

THN: Phil Kessel is whatever you want him to beGreat article where Ryan Kennedy gives Phil Kessel the respect he deserves.  Shout out to @mORRganRielly for bringing this to my attention.

Sporting Charts: 2013-2014 NHL preseason suppositions -  Bob Sullivan cranks up the “what-if” machine for all 30 teams.

SportsNet: Reimer determined to remain No.1Reimer’s competitive spirit is impressive and you can’t help but cheer for the kid. More importantly, he no longer views himself as the underdog. He’s ready to battle, and it shows.

Yahoo! Puck Daddy: Lambert, Ron Rolston should be punishedThe condescension is nauseating but I agree with Lambert here, albeit for different reasons.

HIBS: Band Aid, Can David Bolland stay healthy?This is legitimate question and worth asking if Bolland is going to play the shut-down role Coach Carlyle expects him to play.

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667 comments
mantonio09
mantonio09

@MapleLeafsHS Kessel def worth AAV of $ 7-8M over 8 yr term. Yearly stats steadily trended up and he'll be perennial 80-100 pt player

LeafsGuru
LeafsGuru

What I'm impressed with this off season is how Nonis added Raymond and ranger to a very tight cap squeeze where most of us thought he couldn't even sign Kadri and Franson with what he had left

mlclearwater
mlclearwater

Management needs to find a reasonable way to get rid of Liles (or Gunn) before next year without having to buy him out. Might be hard to showcase him when he is playing for the Marlies or in the press box but hey. Franson, Gardiner, Phaneuf, Ranger, Fraser (not priority) all either UFA or RFA next summer.

Our team is looking good though and i'm pumped for Oct 1st

ProfessorRance
ProfessorRance

Anybody have NHL 14? Want to know if it's any good in comparison to 13.

wendelsway1
wendelsway1

I really couldn't care less about Eakins....yesterday's news.....it's all about the Leafs.  :)

TheCanucksnaphook
TheCanucksnaphook

Man if we could only sign this Franson guy all would be awesome in Leafsland.

dlb meh
dlb meh

Brennan-Holzer worries me a little, and Liles-Rielly should worry them both as well.

Looks like they're all competing for the 7th spot (simple way of looking at it i know).  not a lot of wiggle room to carry 8 of them.

All these guys could do themselves a huge favour by playing lights out next opportunity they get...i hope they get an opportunity

wendelsway1
wendelsway1

@LeafsGuru I'm impressed.....but not surprised.  Some need to realize that Nonis didn't just fall off the turnip truck, is a professional, and a pretty safe bet that he knows more than any of the Armchair GM's out there.  

MaxwellHowe
MaxwellHowe

@LeafsGuru Impressive, but without sounding too negative he didn't get a top line centre nor a top 4 dman.  Not saying those assets were in abundance, but those surely those were priorities during the offseason

TheCanucksnaphook
TheCanucksnaphook

@wendelsway1 But quite common for us to dump on whoever leaves the organization.   good people and good players do leave, we should accept that.

DJBrianBurke
DJBrianBurke

@-Keon- Maybe that's just him, but if true if I would be worried if I was an Oilers fan. That's a young team that has a lot of learning to do.

Pent_House
Pent_House

@-Keon- I think what he said was more along the lines of not looking into a player's history and having regular meetings with his players. 

mcloki
mcloki

@TheCanucksnaphook Welcome to AWESOME Phook. I've liked the way the team has looked. And this signing just makes it better.


dlb meh
dlb meh

then again. if they all suck, maybe they could get through waivers to the Marlies without losing them. recalling them later would be an issue i imagine. i guess i just have high hopes for Holzer and Brennan. Rielly has time on his side, and Liles appears to have none.

FrycersGhost
FrycersGhost

Did you watch the press conference last night?  Patience is and always has been the key.  Not to berate you at all but he did say a top line centre is never available unless one is drafted.  I would argue we signed our own top four dman.  Two things that are worth noting - we finally have a GM and couch combo that works for Toronto (Burke would have likely worked too) and our team is going to be good for a long time.

wendelsway1
wendelsway1

@TheCanucksnaphook @wendelsway1 Yes, some do, but I'm not one of them...and have repeatedly said that just because a player doesn't fit on our team, doesn't make them a bad player.  I'm usually one of the few that will speak up for Grabo, Liles, Frattin, etc.  Just feel that once somebody moves on, you gotta cut the cord and support those that remain in the Blue and White.....'cause it's all about the Leafs.  :)

LeafsGuru
LeafsGuru

No everyone was trash. Rask trash lol

TheCanucksnaphook
TheCanucksnaphook

@MaxwellHowe Yeah...wonder what I/we should dwell on now?  Soon time to focus on the fact that Clarkson is out for 10 games.

mcloki
mcloki

@MaxwellHowe @TheCanucksnaphook Ya exactly what do we ring our hands about now. NExt years contracts are a playoff series away. And Nonis handled this summer really well. NExt summer should be the same.


mcloki
mcloki

@Pent_House @dlb eh I can see what you're saying, but Ranger under Carlyle is just going to get better defensively. But I expect a few brain freezes.

dlb meh
dlb meh

@Pent_House @dlb eh 

i just looked at the pairs as tweeted below somewhere...was reading into what they meant for tryout purposes

FrycersGhost
FrycersGhost

I agree but with every team it's a process.  We are closer but not there.  The deficiencies will be addressed in time.

MaxwellHowe
MaxwellHowe

@FrycersGhost Hey, like I said, the opportunites were limited, and he did well to adjust to a lower cap.  But we all know the deficiencies with this club, and those questions remain.

Belfour20/JB-45
Belfour20/JB-45

@Pent_House @ProfessorRance @-Keon-  if you play defense online, then its a struggle, but if you are a skilled forward, then you will love this game. lots of room for creativity in this game, but you cant stop anything on defense.

FloorHockeyFlopper
FloorHockeyFlopper

@wendelsway1 @TheCanucksnaphook Yup agree WW,  ppl look good on paper but it's like being in a band, you can't just throw ppl together and have that magic no matter how they look on paper ....  look at Blind Faith  (how can you have Clapton and Winwood in the sam band and it doesn't work?!?   ....chemistry, egos  etc etc)

Pent_House
Pent_House

@TheCanucksnaphook @Pent_House @-Keon- I said he was a solid coach, he should be in the NHL, especially for a young team like the Oilers, but he's not a coach you get to win games. I've watched him live at the Ricoh make these obvious mistakes in the play-offs and in-game asked myself wtf is this guy doing, two years in a row. 

TheCanucksnaphook
TheCanucksnaphook

@Pent_House @-Keon-  I know it !! Burkie has no idea what he was doing when he named him coach of the Marlies.  And the Edmonton Oilers are fools for hiring him too !! 

Lets be realistic.  He is a solid Coach, deserves to be in the NHL more than a bunch of them do.   I guess you are entitled to your opinion but I find it incorrect and without merit.

Pent_House
Pent_House

@TheCanucksnaphook @Pent_House @-Keon- You can't just look at a Calder finals as a result and say that makes him a winning coach without context. That was by far the deepest team in the AHL hands down. In the finals he didn't make simple adjustments to fix the PP which was a major factor into the team losing. Last year against Grand Rapids he made terrible personnel decisions, and fore-check choices in game. Good coach all in all, but definitely over-hyped. 

Pent_House
Pent_House

@-Keon- @Pent_House He was over-hyped as a coach. Developed a lot of good players, and created a great culture, but obviously not the greatest communicator, and when it came time to actually win games, he wasn't the greatest at that either. 

Pent_House
Pent_House

@mcloki @Pent_House @dlb eh Of course it could be worse, could be lebda etc etc.  but I would have liked to see Blacker in there ahead of Ranger. I think that would have made a better team. 

dlb meh
dlb meh

@mcloki @Pent_House @dlb eh 

i see Ranger's skills and i have to agree with you, while acknowledging his decision-making at times so far.  he's bound to improve.

dlb meh
dlb meh

@TheCanucksnaphook @dlb eh 

i do still have high hopes fro Brennan and Holzer.  they've both looked good so far this pre-season to me.  i want physical puck-moving and PK capable cheap options for the 3rd pair.  opens up room to give the more important players more money.

then again, if Fraser-Ranger is the 3rd pair that's not bad money.

Gunnar look like an 18+ minute guy to you though?  not me.  we need someone to step in there...and when he moves down, that's an expensive 3rd pair.