Game Preview: Leafs look to keep winning while also playing better vs. Canes

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The Leafs will bank the points and run in the early season, but let’s hope Randy Carlyle’s apprehensive sentiments about the team’s 6-1 start are hitting home with the players. The Leafs have been a high-wire act the past few games and it won’t cut it against a team like the Blackhawks, who are on the docket this Saturday. Tonight against the Hurricanes, let’s hope to see the Leafs play a more complete game than what’s been on display the last few outings, results aside.

 LeafsCanes
Record6-1-02-2-3
GF/G3.71 (4th)2.14 (26th)
GA/G2.29 (7th)2.71 (17th)
SF/G28.4 (22nd)32.1 (9th)
SA/G34.6 (27th)32.9 (23rd)
PP33.3 (2nd)12.5 (23rd)
PK88.9% (3rd)83.3% (12th)
5 on 5 F/A1.17 (11th)0.92 (17th)
Sh%13.1% (3rd)7% (27th)
Sv%93.4% (5th)91.7% (13th)

What’s interesting is that the Leafs are top 10 or better in all major categories except, you guessed it, shots. It hasn’t always been pretty, but great goaltending, special teams excellence, and opportunistic scoring do add up to wins.

The big question surrounding this team that won’t go away is the question of sustainability. There aren’t many recent precedents for what the Leafs have been doing, but they’ve been fairly successful at it over the past 55 games; 62 if you include the playoff series against Boston. The Leafs are currently 4-1 when getting outshot in the early goings of 2013-14 (outshot in 71% of games so far), after a 2012-13 season in which the team was a remarkable 21-10-5 when outshot (75% of games). The Leafs were 5-7 last season in the rare instances when they outshot their opponents.

It’s clear this coaching staff is not worried about getting edged out on the shot clock; the Leafs key in on taking away the slot, even if it means eating a few more shots, and they can usually generate at least as many quality scoring chances as the other team with less shots taken. What it should care about is the total lack of offensive zone time on display against the Wild.

It’s as Carlyle said after the last game: “The worry for the coaches is that some night we’re going to get our butt kicked playing like this.”

Further: “We are not going to accept what’s happening. We are on the receiving end too much, and you can’t play that way and expect to win.”

And yesterday: “We know we can play to a higher level and play a better puck possession game than what we have so far.”

Indeed, what I’ll be looking for tonight is a less negative possession game against an opponent that is mediocre in most respects. I’ve heard a similar quote to the last one from Carlyle numerous times in the past several months. Carlyle’s goal for more offensive zone time in the team’s performance has been left wanting as the cycle game has been all but non existent the past couple of games. There is potential for improvement, especially when Clarkson and Kulemin are reinserted into the top 9; Kulemin is arguably the Leafs’ strongest winger on the boards, while Clarkson is ferocious on the forecheck.

As for James van Riemsdyk, he practiced for 40 minutes yesterday, and Randy Carlyle is hopeful that he’ll be ready to go tonight.

The Leafs lost two of three games against the Hurricanes in 2012-13. Toronto had little answer for Staal brothers, who combined for four goals and seven points over the three outings. Jordan Staal has just one assist through seven games, while Eric has 4 points, but if there’s one place the Thunder Bay, Ontario natives will find some extra jump it’s under the bright lights of the Air Canada Centre.

Jeff Skinner has been the most potent Hurricane in the early going, with four points (two goals, two assists) in his last four games. Skinner leads the team in assists (five), points (seven), and shots on goal (28).

Presumptive starter James Reimer has a 4-1-1 career record against the Hurricanes and has only allowed six even strength goals against in six meetings. He’s coming off a one-goal, 37-save win over the Wild.

Last Meeting:

The last meeting between these two teams featured a dramatic third period Leaf comeback in the final five minutes, including a memorable game-winning goal courtesy of #19 in Blue and White (Bowen’s call on that goal was poetry). Almost as pretty to watch was the Leafs’ opening goal that night. On the third shift of the game, JvR, Bozak and Kessel combined beautifully after some sustained pressure. This was one of my favourite Leaf wins last season.

 

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Alec Brownscombe is the founder of MapleLeafsHotStove.com, where he has written daily about the Leafs since September of 2008. He was also the editor of the 2009-12 Maple Leafs Annuals. You can contact him at [email protected]
  • MaxwellHowe

    The Staals like to feast on the Maple Leafs.  Our centres need to bring their games tonite – and focus on shutting them down.  Shut down the Staals and the Canes have little elsew to offer.
    Oh, and maybe win a god damn faceoff occasionally.

  • Dink

    I don’t care if they get out-shot and score 4 goals on 14 shots.
    It would be nice to hold the other team to 15 shots though.

  • phaneufoundlander

    Two Staal brothers in town, desperate for points scares me….lets hope their golatending continues its downward spiral.

  • phaneufoundlander

    we only needed 3 shots to win the last game lol

  • B_Leaf

    SOG are not overly important, however there are other aspects of the Leafs game right now that are not sustainable. There defensive zone coverage is good where they generally own the dirty ice and contain people…what is not good is there defensive zone exits. They just blow way to many opportunities to get the puck out, when they do get it out…way to often it is given back or iced, even when we have some time and space our outlet passes have been minor league taking away potential counter attacks off the rush, furthermore our forwards have been chased down from behind too many times. If we can clean up our defensive zone exits and start to bring back the physical game I think we can grow from there.

  • Burtonboy

    Carolina are actually playing pretty well. 6th in the conference is not shabby and from what I’m hearing Ward has started to pick up his game . Toronto needs to pressure their weak spot which is the defense . Dump it in and fore check with speed instead of always trying to make the pretty play or pass. Not sure Carlryle has that beat into their heads just yet.

  • MaxwellHowe

    B_Leaf 
    You’re right, and I’m not sure who gets the blame.  Should the coaching staff draw up new strategys?  We have several defencemen who can carry the puck well – is that asset being used properly?  Are the forwards receiving passes from the defence in vulnerable positons?  Or are the forwards shrinking due to fear of being smashed – Kadri seemed to do that several times last game.  Or do the centre and forwards provide enough puck support on the break out.  Right now the Leafs have no transition game – and that falls upon the coaches as much as anyone IMO

  • Burtonboy

    I see Livefyre is not up to snuff again this morning. Loading slow

  • MaxwellHowe

    Burtonboy The game tonite will destroy whats left

  • Knights2Leafs

    Two of the things that defined the Leafs last year were speed and physical play.
    We don’t seem to be playing with the same speed but that shouldn’t be an issue.  JVR is actually faster this year, Bolland is not slow and surprisingly Clarkson was given kudos for his skating stride.  And then there’s Rielly plus a full regular season with Gardiner.  I’m not worried about that taking care of itself.
    For me the bigger issue has been the lack of physical play.  The fear is gone. Not just having McLaren for fighting but even from a hitting perspective.  I think we really need Clarkson, Kulie, Fraser and McLaren back to put a little more fear into the opposing teams.  That might help with the shots against.  
    Kadri can’t be our only designated hitter. : )

  • Burtonboy

    Knights2Leafs I miss Komarov

  • ConnorCrisp

    2 would have done it :)

  • Mind Bomb

    Good morning Folks ! Game Day is always a good day !

  • Mind Bomb

    Burtonboy Knights2Leafs Morning BB, I do as well, his Hits were actual hits, with force, not gentle bumps, opponents felt them

  • ConnorCrisp

    I hope JVR is back in it. 40 min of practice yesterday bodes well

  • Cameron19

    Predictions:

    -Kessel scores 2 on an overconfident Cam Ward fresh off battling the Hawks to a shootout
    -Staal brothers play annoyingly tonight before returning to hibernation
    -Carolina with the win.

  • Mind Bomb

    hoolihan Mind Bomb Burtonboy Knights2Leafs 100 percent bro lol

  • Burtonboy

    hoolihan Mind Bomb Burtonboy Knights2Leafs Of course I was a Eddie Shack fan . At least he hit which is more then I can say for the majority of this line up. And I’m not talking about these little rub outs and love taps along the boards that get counted as hits these days either. Hit hard enough to make them keeps their heads

  • conebone69

    B_Leaf I agree completely. The forwards hang around the red line for a long pass and dont have any forward momentum. The offence looks good when there are clean and quick defensive zone exits, but that is rarely the case.

  • Knights2Leafs

    Burtonboy Knights2Leafs 
    Ashton may have worked his ass off in preseason but he was the guy that should have replaced Komarov and really hasn’t.  Broll may have that in him, but IMO he’s not ready for that kind of game at the NHL level yet.  It will be good for him to go back to the A to get more playing time and learn to play more aggressively and hit cleanly like Komarov did.

  • wendelsway1

    Good Morning All….Game Day…..Great day to be a Leafer!……my prediction…Leafs will find a way to win tonight…..GO LEAFS GO!!

  • wendelsway1

    Burtonboy hoolihan Mind Bomb Knights2Leafs Oh yeah….Clear the track, here comes Shack!!!  :)

  • Burtonboy

    Knights2Leafs Burtonboy The thing about Leo was he stirred the pot and got the opposition off their game mostly with the way he hit. Can’t wait to get Clarkson into the line up to bring back some of that intensity. Not only does it piss off the opposition it gets his teamates amped up as well.

  • Mind Bomb

    Knights2Leafs Burtonboy I was very impressed with Ashton in Pre-season Knights, but now, he is not very noticable so far

  • Burtonboy

    Mind Bomb Knights2Leafs Burtonboy No ice time. Hard to notice him playing 5 mins a game

  • Mind Bomb

    wendelsway1 Morning WW, 7-1 sounds so good !

  • wendelsway1

    Mind Bomb wendelsway1 That works for me  :)

  • http://i.imgur.com/MyKj5C3.gif ingy56

    CanuckUKinToronto I hate playing Carolina…for some reason they give the Leafs fits.

  • http://i.imgur.com/MyKj5C3.gif ingy56

    Mind Bomb Morning MB…100% correct.

  • LightmyLeaf

    Mind Bomb wendelsway1 morning WW and MB and CUKT and BB !
    could be a trap game…or….the Leafs pull it together and win 4-2,  and Go 7-1-0…..first place is very addictive….we deserve it!

  • Jmessih

    Morning everyone,
    Hoping the Leafs control the game today against the Canes. Looking for a big game from someone like Ashton, Broll or maybe Bodie if he gets in. The physicallity of this team is not where is was last year, in part that is due to Karmorov now being here. He was not only someone who had a lot of hits but if he came in hard (and fast) on the forecheck it willed the other players to do the same, I believe that is where we miss him most. True adding Kulemin, Clarkson and Fraser will change that but they are all big guys, Karmorov lead as a little guy and a rookie.
    Can’t wait till this team is healthy and unsuspended lol

  • Bobsyouruncle

    Burtonboy Eddie sure was the energy guy on the Leafs. One of the best ever. Three players come to mind as guys who would pull you out of your seat as they started on an end to end rush. Bobby Hull, Brian Campbell with Buffalo and Eddie Shack back in the day.

  • Dink

    Bobsyouruncle Burtonboy  and he had a “nose” for value.

  • Mind Bomb

    Burtonboy Mind Bomb Knights2Leafs  True, I guess its hard to blame RC for playing our stars, we have so many lol. And really the way Broll and Devane have played as well has taken some ice time away

  • Komas Taberle

    Cameron19 Staal lies on the ice crying like a baby and Xrays show a strain..oh wait!

  • Burtonboy

    Bobsyouruncle Burtonboy Exactly what we’re missing right now. Hopefully “wild eyes  ‘ will bring some of that once the suspension is over

  • The Truth Hurts

    Ummm Go Leafs Go. Getting my tent set up at the corner of Bay and Front.

  • Biltmore

    I don’t think this Toronto team will ever be a high puck possession team, simply because of how fast they execute. The first 15 seconds of that video above, Toronto gave up offensive possession with a shot, missed, then retrieved the puck long enough to control it again and shoot again… which was a goal. They move the puck so well on the power play that they create decent chances quickly. 
    Leafs win tonight 5-2.

  • Mind Bomb

    LightmyLeaf Mind Bomb wendelsway1 Morning :)

  • supercilious

    Biltmore how do you quantify how successful a counter-attacking team is? we need a new metric

  • http://i.imgur.com/MyKj5C3.gif ingy56

    Bobsyouruncle Burtonboy Begrudgingly, I’d have to add Lafleur (with hair) to that list.

  • http://i.imgur.com/MyKj5C3.gif ingy56

    CanuckUKinToronto ingy56 I don’t know what it is, but they frustrate the hell out of the Leafs and watching the games is akin to watching them play the Devils.

  • Dink

    Biltmore  for a team that loses so many face-offs, they should be more prepared to be defensive from the puck drop. this is an issue on both counts.

  • Bobsyouruncle

    ingy56 Yeah I guess he was pretty good for that too, in a stinky Habby way.  lol

  • wendelsway1

    CanuckUKinToronto ingy56 Pfffft….Staal shmaal……hope Dion  catches one of ’em with their head down in the neutral zone  :)

  • http://i.imgur.com/MyKj5C3.gif ingy56

    The Truth Hurts They have wi-fi under the Gardiner? :)

  • http://i.imgur.com/MyKj5C3.gif ingy56

    Bobsyouruncle ingy56 Exactly.

  • Biltmore

    supercilious Biltmore  Honestly I don’t think you can. Hockey has too many intangibles. A superior team can have an off night. A superior team can run into a hot goalie. Bad ice in a humid rink can affect one team’s skating more than another (a faster team loses more of its advantage). So on and so on… I think if there were a truly predictive or indicative system to be found in the ether, Vegas casinos would have found it by now.

  • Cameron19

    Biltmore It’s a good point. They finally addressed it in the broadcast during the last game.  Yes, we lead the league in giveaways, but also in takeaways.  This suggests that there is actually a lot of flux and battling for the puck, rather than anyone having definitive possession.  Even when we appear to be hemmed in our zone, the puck is often being contested all over the place.  Rarely is the other team just moving the puck around, dictating play.  If they have it, it’s usually around the outside, and they’re making hurried and harmless passes until we can intercept and turn the play up ice.

  • dlb eh

    “There aren’t many recent precedents for what the Leafs have been doing”
    the only precedence i can remember is when the tables were turned and we had Stempniuk, Hagman and Blake firing shots at the opposition’s net.
    superior goaltending, superior scorers.  we didn’t have them then.  we have them now.