What happens in a meeting between two teams whose working formula is to win while outshot? We’ll find out tonight in Colorado.
|% of games spent outshot||82% (41/51)||54% (26/48)|
|Record when outshot||21-15-5||19-4-3|
|Record when outshooting||5-4-0||11-7-1|
|Corsi for % |
|43.6% (30th)||46.8% (26th)|
Inspecting the makeup of the teams reveals why they might be fudging the stats. Both are young, skilled, fast and dangerous up front, and are shooting up around 10% (all situations). Both are positionally weak at D, but have received the quality of goaltending to compensate (Avalanche are third with a .922 save percentage, Leafs are 6th with a .919).
Watch the Avalanche a little bit and you come to the conclusion they’re similar to the Leafs except Patrick Roy has his group executing more consistently; they’re more detailed focused, harder working, and playing his system successfully.
While the Leafs employ their hotly-debated swarm system, Roy has described his defensive system as “man-to-man/support. More and more teams will have their defensemen involved in the attack, and if you play (zone), you cannot follow them.”
“The biggest part of our D-zone is our forwards, and a lot of what Patrick is telling us to do is support — play man-to-man and when someone gets beat, there’s always a guy supporting you,” described Avs defenseman Erik Johnson.
Avs backup JS Giguere said of all the shots against earlier in the season:
“A lot from the perimeter. We’ve done a great job taking rebounds away, and the D has done a good job boxing out.”
The Avalanche play the game at a high pace, are rested, and the Leafs – in their second game in two nights – are going to be in tough trying to maintain the energy level required to scrap out a point or two. Not that this is different than any other night in the Leaf net, but Toronto will need a big performance out of James Reimer.
Projected TML Lineup
James van Riemsdyk — Tyler Bozak — Phil Kessel
Joffrey Lupul — Nazem Kadri — Nikolai Kulemin
Mason Raymond — Peter Holland — Troy Bodie
Carter Ashton — Jay McClement — Colton Orr
Carl Gunnarsson — Dion Phaneuf
Tim Gleason — Cody Franson
Jake Gardiner — Morgan Rielly
S: James Reimer
Scratched: Mark Fraser, Paul Ranger
Injured: Dave Bolland (ankle), David Clarkson (elbow), Frazer McLaren (shoulder), Trevor Smith (hand)
Projected Avalanche Lineup
Ryan O’Reilly — Matt Duchene — Jamie McGinn
Gabriel Landeskog — Paul Stastny — Nathan MacKinnon
Cody McLeod — John Mitchell — Maxime Talbot
Patrick Bordeleau — Marc-Andre Cliche — PA Parenteau
Erik Johnson — Jan Hejda
Andre Benoit — Ryan Wilson
Nick Holden — Tyson Barrie
S: Semyon Varlamov
Scratched: Brad Malone
Injured: Nate Guenin (ankle), Cory Sarich (back), Alex Tanguay (knee, hip), David Van Der Gulik (head)
jonasTSN1050: Cody Franson on van Riemsdyk's redirection abilities: "JVR’s got a no-fly zone. Put it in a certain airspace it’s going down."
I know most of you are now sleeping and dreaming of a 14 game winning streak.....however, I must say, our boys are starting to look like a young team learning how to win. Not always pretty, but progressing. Crazy talent with some young guys. Proved it against a similar team in Colorado. I like it. I hope it continues.
Kessel has been more physically engaged the last few games...maybe the rest of the team is going to start to feed off that...hoping
“This is going to be big,” I thought, as two or three raucous Go Leafs Go chants erupted in the build up to midnight at the hotel sports bar in downtown Detroit on New Year’s Eve.
I didn’t think Leafs Nation’s show of strength in the playoffs the previous Spring - referring here to the events at Maple Leaf Square - was soon to be topped, but seeing droves of Leafs fans descend on Ann Arbor’s Big House to split the record-setting 105,000 representation on hand was damned impressive, even for a fan base known for its unshakable loyalty.
That number of 105,000, by the way, is something you hear and go “wow” but don’t fully comprehend the logistics of its presence. Same goes for, “you’re going to be spending 6-7 hours in -15 weather.”
Indeed, as this event progresses, every fibre of your physical being is telling you what you’re doing is ill advised. By the third period, I couldn’t feel my toes. The falling snow had dampened my jeans and longjohns, which of course then refroze, so I was now wearing ice pants. We’re crammed in like sardines in our seats, which inexplicably don’t provide any sort of compensating warmth benefit. The path out to the concourse starts with a line at the end of your row. Essentially, you’re lining up in order to go line up some more in the washroom line before doing a little more lining up over in the beer line.
The hockey isn’t great - something to do with the accumulating snow on the ice hindering the players’ ability to see and control the puck, one would think - but the backdrop is perfect, and the fact that our Leaf heroes are out there braving the elements with us makes the whole thing pretty special. The crowd is frozen at times but electric when the right song - Don’t Stop Believing - or a scoring opportunity or goal came along.
My rational side understood why some patrons were heading for the exits in the middle of overtime, but the fan in you knows you couldn’t live with yourself later if you followed suit. I felt I was a part of Leafs and hockey history, dammit, and I was determined to see it through.
While the Leafs had coughed up yet another lead in the third and looked intent (we have the snow-shovel buzzer to thank for defending that Zetterberg breakaway in OT) on spoiling the ideal outcome, but as it has been the pattern for them this season, the Blue and White salvaged it in the shootout. In an event all about the purity and time-honored traditions of the sport I’d rather it didn’t have its outcome settled in a skills competition event, but it made for good drama in its own right.
At the time it looked like Leafs were stringing some victories together in a modest winning surge. Given how the results have unfolded since, the victory in the Winter Classic may well prove to be the high water mark of the 2013-14 season. If that’s the case, I’m all the more glad I was a part of it.
My buddy Michael aptly summed up the miserable majesty of the event some time during the tense third period: “I’d suffer through something this awesome again.”
It sounds like Leafs fans will get that chance in 2017, only this time much closer to home. I might be thawed out by then, so of course I won’t miss that one either.
--- Alec Brownscombe, Hockey Insider at Shark Club
If you were Oilers management, which forward core would you prefer?
@wiski We're still paying Willy, aren't we? We should have him come back to address the media after games just to piss the media off.
@Coldincowtown Can't wait til Lupul starts getting hot again.
@Bruffins I think you're drunk.......or tone deaf....lol :)
@Black_Hawk 2 goals tonight and 14 points in the last 7 will have to do ;)
@Jmessih glad he is doing well
@Jmessih Thats going to be a hell of a game on Saturday with two teams rolling
@wiski suck it up buttercup . You have 7 more yrs of this yet lol
@Jmessih phills state of the union, only happens every so often.
@Gozo It's a credit to him the team hasn't quit on him. I also like how he's handling the D core now. But there's still enough troubling signs that I'm not confident to say the team is necessarily "well coached." I just believe the talent level on this team is high and it should be enough for a comfortable playoff position.
@DeclanK EXCEPT IT ISN'T THE HIGH WATER MARK WOOOOOO
@Dangle_My_Berries Seriously ?
@Jmessih isnt that bozaks friend?
@Cameron19 Clever, and yes, group number two.
Edmonton drafted too small
@Cameron19 the 2nd one