2014 NHL Draft Lottery – Harnessing the Power of 3.6%

2014 NHL Draft Lottery – Harnessing the Power of 3.6%

This event gets its own TSN broadcast for reasons of hockey and Canada, especially given the audience this year. It’s a sad indictment of the current NHL affairs north of the border that six Canadian fan bases will be hoping for a miracle during tonight’s lottery draw.

The team with the best odds last picked first in 2010. The Leafs have an 8.7% chance of moving down to 9th overall, but a 3.6% chance of moving all the way up to 1st.

Obligatory:

PickLottery Odds
1 - Buffalo25.00%
2 - Florida18.80%
3 - Edmonton14.20%
4 - Calgary10.70%
5 - NY Islanders8.10%
6 - Vancouver6.20%
7 - Carolina4.70%
8 - Toronto3.60%
9 - Winnipeg2.70%
10 - Ottawa2.10%
11 - New Jersey1.50%
12 - Nashville1.10%
13 - Phoenix0.80%
14 - Washington0.50%

Bill Daly will reveal the results at 8 p.m. EST on TSN.

771 comments
ELEVATORMN
ELEVATORMN

I notice the N.J.Devils are in the lottery. Would they be allowed to move up 3 to 4 spots or they stay at 30th. The giving back the Devils their first round pick they can not trade up with it. I am a Devils fan but I think we have to stay at 30th.

Kouba
Kouba

so the Leafs were not leapt over by another team... at least some kind of victory lol

Savo43
Savo43

Something tells me Shanahan will be looking at Evander Kane this offseason as a player that reminds him of himself, and encourages Nonis to do what it takes to acquire him. I hope that comes to fruition as a definite possibility, but i'm curious as to whether or not his attitude would be a detriment to the locker room. Also, in an unrelated note, i wonder if having Shanahan in the Leafs organization today, makes Yzerman as GM a possibility down the line. 

Everything Leafs
Everything Leafs

From everything ive seen Ritchie looks fantastic to me. Reminds me of JVR but with a physicality aspect to his game which I love, he also reminds me of Owen Nolan but bigger.


(I always said my favorite players are ones who can whoop your ass in a fight a then can score the game winning goal after coming out of the box and that's the kind of game I can see this kid playing)


Saying that someone said to me on twitter today they believed he would be a lock for top 5 in the draft if it wasn't for a shoulder injury, I was just wondering if someone out there knows anything about his injury history and if his shoulder is something we should be worried about if the Leafs are looking to draft him? Anyone know?


Everything Leafs

Twitter Handle: @Watson_Brent

GreekGod
GreekGod

I can see the Leafs taking Ehlers

Xxxxxnew
Xxxxxnew

8th overall draft picks.

GreekGod
GreekGod

sportsnet has us taking Perlini with the 8th pick

.JVR.
.JVR.

Sort of been out of the loop the past week+ as I was in Florida and then had to work two 12 hour shifts when I got back and just saw that Bozak, Reimer and Rielly will be representing Canada at the Worlds.


Any other players (Kessel, JVR, Gardiner, Kulemin, etc.) playing for their respective countries?

.JVR.
.JVR.

Any chance the player we draft 8th overall could step in and play with Kadri and Lupul next season? (if we pick a forward)


Would be huge if we could ice something like this:


JVR   -   Bozak   -   Kessel

Lupul   -   Kadri   -   ?????

Kulemin   -   Bolland   -   Clarkson

D'Amigo/Ashton/etc.   -   McClement   -   Komarov


Unfortunately I think Bolland and Kulmein will ask for too much as free agents.

GreekGod
GreekGod

Some Ehlers highlights for you guys :)

Black_Hawk
Black_Hawk

@Jmessih  i would go with Virtanen and then Ehlers. Think Dale Colle is gone and hesitant on Rithie as i dont want another biggs

loomx
loomx

@GreekGod  Nonis' 1st round picks: Schneider, Bourdon(RIP), Grabner, Patrick White.


Really no patterns you can pick out but he seems like a guy who would draft skill.

ProfessorRance
ProfessorRance

@GreekGod  Who knows if we even draft with that pick this year. If we have a chance to get someone who is young and can help the big club we may do it this offseason. But I wouldn't mind that pick at all. 

GreekGod
GreekGod

@Keeon  

My exact argument as well. Carlyle IMO didn't use Clarkson properly. He threw him with McClement and people wondered why he wasn't playing well nor putting up points...

.JVR.
.JVR.

@Bon Scott was a Leaf fan  


Yea, it would definitely be a tough line to play against and they should be able to produce decent secondary (thirdonary) scoring, along with being solid defensively.

Xxxxxnew
Xxxxxnew

Is he. Fred Perlini's kid? Former fringe leaf.

.JVR.
.JVR.

@GreekGod  

Saw that, but I'm sorta hoping we can somehow move up to draft Draisaitl or Nick Richie if we can't move up.

loomx
loomx

@GreekGod  Ehlers or Virtanen would fit the bill. Ritchie's good but he should be scoring way more since he's nearly a year older than a guy like Virtanen. Perlini's a huge question mark because I don't think he was even ranked in the 1st round last year, then caught fire, then disappeared. I don't know enough about Nylander, and any other choice would be too high IMO. 


I like drafting young guys, Virtanen's still 17. I go with him since I think Ehlers will be gone.

.JVR.
.JVR.

@Bruffins

Ya, just did a google search and found that.

I'm guessing JVR and Kessel declined their invitations as they've played alot of hockey this season, be it an Olympic Year and Carlyle's idiotic decision to only dress 11 forwards for the last quarter of the season. 

.JVR.
.JVR.

@leafersutherland

Plus a healthy Dave Bolland and hopefully a rejuvenated David Clarkson.


Also, was the team really that bad this year?


If the team had started out with a bad losing streak or suffered it mid-season and then went on a tear to end the season, but finished with the same record, what would everybody here think about them?


I'm sure everybody would be praising how they came together at the end and about how much potential they have heading into next season!

loomx
loomx

@Jmessih @GreekGod @Black_Hawk  I mean, I'm not saying Virtanen doesn't have his problems. I've heard complaints about his character and his consistency. He's one of the youngest players available so the complaints about character aren't that concerning. As for consistency, he's still filling out his frame and as he does that, he should be more comfortable with where he's at.


He has all the tools to be great. He just needs to put them together and if he does, the team that picks him is going to have a huge steal. Best comparison is probably somewhere between Pacioretty and EKane. Swing for the fences again, please.

GreekGod
GreekGod

@Jmessih @Black_Hawk @GreekGod  

Richie could end up like Lucic or could be another 3rd liner which we have some developing already in the AHL. We need firepower man

GreekGod
GreekGod

@Jmessih @Black_Hawk  

On the other side, players with Richie's size usually do end up dominating in the juniors. My fear is he's very close to his full potential which is something that JVR pointed out as well earlier tonight.

I think we need that type of forward that has star potential written all over him... I'd draft Ehlers all day. Trade up to get him if we have to.

People on here say his size is an issue but after watching some of his goals... the kid just puts his head down drives hard to the net using his quick speed and awesome hands to get by players. 

Savo43
Savo43

@loomx @GreekGod  That's the thing for sure, Ehlers could be gone. If he's still there though, that'd be great. 

Savo43
Savo43

@Jmessih @Savo43 @loomx @GreekGod  Im a smaller guy, so im a little biased towards the capability and use of a smaller, faster player lolll. I understand the need for something a little safer, that addresses more of a need though, ala that top 6 center type with the physical assets more suited to succeed. That said though, i still hope we make that risky/sexy pick that could make us out like bandits at the end of the day. Sick of Detroit making those picks, mind you...somehow they hit theres in the later rounds -.-. Could definitely see Ehlers being a Tatar type though, and that really intrigues me. 

Savo43
Savo43

@Jmessih @loomx @GreekGod  Drouin is a small kid too, but if he somehow re-entered the draft, id take him. Ehlers is faster, and very similar. I'd be pumped if we took him. Star potential, and he's played with some damn good players. High risk, even higher reward. I like it. Sick of the Gauthier, Biggs and Percy style picks. Its time we swing for the fences. Thats just me though. 

ProfessorRance
ProfessorRance

@Keeon  He better turn it around or it could get really ugly, real soon for him.

loomx
loomx

@GreekGod @loomx @.JVR.  Supremely skilled. Doesn't let his size get in the way of getting things done. Not bad defensively. He's my top choice but I don't think he gets by Vancouver.

GreekGod
GreekGod

@loomx @GreekGod @.JVR.  

Awesome. thanks man. What about Ehlers? the more I read up on this kid the more I think he could be the steal of the draft

loomx
loomx

@GreekGod @.JVR.  Perlini is puzzling. Played extremely well out of the gate this year, then just cooled off, became a strictly perimeter player, and just didn't display a lot of skill. Good size, good shot, good speed, doesn't go to the net at all, questionable puck skills. I'd stay away in the top 10.

.JVR.
.JVR.

@GreekGod

Kind of worried that Richie is only ranked so high because of his size (6'2, 230 lbs), which means he's basically maxed out his potential already.


Think Tyler Biggs, who ended up going in the 1st round, but was probably only a 2nd or 3rd round talent.

sniperstar
sniperstar

@.JVR. @Bruffins  Dressing 11 forwards wasn't the problem. It was playing 1 or 2 of those 11 forwards for less than 10 minutes consistently.

Chris Jay
Chris Jay

@.JVR. @leafersutherland  Yeah they were bad, even when they were winning they were bad. The team is good, the coach is bad, but I don't think Nonis sees it that way

.JVR.
.JVR.

@leafersutherland

Oh yea and our young guys such as Kadri, van Riemsdyk, Gardiner and Rielly will all be a year older and more experienced.