After a thrilling third-period comeback over the Devils last night in Toronto, the Maple Leafs are looking to grab their fifth straight win heading into All-Star break in tonight’s rematch in New Jersey (7 p.m. EST, TSN4).
The biggest storyline for the Leafs tonight will be how Jack Campbell is able to respond after allowing three goals in the first period and getting the yank against the Devils last night, capping off a difficult month of January for him individually. Petr Mrazek was steady in relief of Campbell, which made this an interesting decision for tonight.
The Leafs‘ coaching staff appears to have decided that they want to give Campbell a chance to feel better about his game and enter the break on a high note; Mrazek also played the bulk of the game last night, so that’s a consideration as well for him given his injury troubles this season.
Another factor at play is that Keefe has challenged his group to play a tighter game defensively in front of Campbell, citing all of the times Campbell has been a rock for the team this season. The Leafs‘ head coach is likely looking for something to grab his team’s attention and give the group a little extra juice on a Tuesday back-to-back against a weak opponent before the All-Star break.
There will be no other lineup changes for the Leafs.
Auston Matthews’ hat trick understandably grabbed the headlines, but two other Leafs also remained hot last night in Mitch Marner and Ilya Mikheyev, who continue to be a big part of the Leafs’ offensive success over the past two weeks.
After a three-game layoff due to Covid protocols, Marner appeared remarkably refreshed upon return, playing the most confident brand of hockey we’ve seen from him this season. He’s shooting a comical 30% on 20 shots in his six games since returning, scoring in every game and adding six assists.
While his underlying on-ice impacts have always been strong, the puck going in is a deserved reward for all of what he’s been creating for himself offensively. Comparing his output from before his layoff, Marner is now contributing 1.4 individual expected goals per 60 minutes compared to only 0.8 in his first 26 games of the season.
Meanwhile, Ilya Mikheyev’s performance since his second return to play has been a boon to the Leafs’ secondary scoring output. As a refresher, he broke his thumb late in training camp and was forced to miss eight weeks; he then returned for a game against the Oilers on December 14th only to be promptly placed into Covid protocol.
Predictably, Mikheyev has slowed down since earning four goals and one assist in his first four games back, but his goal and assist last night brought his total up to a very respectable nine points in 11 games (seven goals, two assists) in 2022.
As with Marner, Mikheyev’s underlying numbers have more than kept up with his production thus far — he is already approaching his rookie season’s 39-game Goals Above Replacement total in only 12 games so far this season. His xG numbers are equally off the charts, as he ranks second on the team behind Auston Matthews in xGAR/60.
Game Day Quotes
Sheldon Keefe on the decision on starting goaltender tonight:
I think it’s a great opportunity for him to get right back in there. It’s an opportunity for our team to do a better job in front of him as well. It’s a pretty easy decision.
Anytime there’s a dip there, you want to get back at it. That’s part of why we’re putting him back in there tonight. He’s ready to go and he’s got the right mind set. I’m less focused on Jack and more focused on our team — we’ve got to do a much better job in front of him. We need to defend better in front of our goaltender, no matter who is in.
Keefe on what he wants his team to focus on amid their recent up-and-down play within games:
Really, we’re focusing on consistency — that’s really it. Not too long ago we were having excellent starts and we were dominating early in games. We were taking control and then not doing a good job from then on. Now it’s kind of flipped. In the times where we were giving up leads, those were different each game — each one kind of felt different.
That’s where we’ve been — we’ve been a little bit inconsistent with even what our issues have been. It’s been a little harder to pinpoint. The things that’s great and what shines through at the moment when you’re down is the character of our team.
Keefe on the benefit of playing the same team back-to-back:
It’s very fresh in your mind with what the opponent is going to bring. It’s a team that we haven’t seen in well over a season. They’re a very young team with lots of talent and a lot of guys that either we’ve never seen or over the course of a season and a half have grown a lot. You can see the talent in skill level they have.
The areas where we weren’t good last night in terms of defending the neutral zone and taking care of the puck really allows those guys to shine.
Toronto Maple Leafs Projected Lines
Forwards
#58 Michael Bunting – #34 Auston Matthews – #16 Mitch Marner
#5 Alex Kerfoot – #91 John Tavares – #88 William Nylander
#65 Ilya Mikheyev – #64 David Kampf – #25 Ondrej Kase
#47 Pierre Engvall – #19 Jason Spezza – #24 Wayne Simmonds
Defensemen
#44 Morgan Rielly – #78 TJ Brodie
#38 Rasmus Sandin – #3 Justin Holl
#23 Travis Dermott – #37 Timothy Liljegren
Goaltenders
Starter: #36 Jack Campbell
#35 Petr Mrazek
Extras: Kyle Clifford, Nick Ritchie, Carl Dahlstrom
Injured: Jake Muzzin (concussion)
New Jersey Devils Projected Lines
Forwards
#17 Yegor Sharangovich – #86 Jack Hughes – #63 Jesper Bratt
#37 Pavel Zacha – #14 Nico Hischier – #13 Nathan Bastian
#11 Andreas Johnsson – #18 Dawson Mercer – #90 Tomas Tatar
#16 Jimmy Vesey – #70 Jesper Boqvist – #59 Janne Kuokkanen
Defensemen
#71 Jonas Siegenthaler – #28 Damon Severson
#33 Ryan Graves – #P.K Subban
#24 Ty Smith – #2 Colton White
Goaltenders
Starter: #32 Jon Gilles
#40 Akira Schmid
Injured: Dougie Hamilton, Miles Wood, Michael McLeod, Jonathan Bernier, Mackenzie Blackwood
