The Maple Leafs failed to capitalize on their chances in a run-and-gun Game 1, while the Panthers made the most of theirs en route to winning the opening game of the second round. Now the Leafs need a big response effort similar to Game 2 of the last series to crucially avoid a 0-2 series deficit on home ice (7 p.m. EST, Sportsnet).
Is there such a thing as too much freedom? The Leafs pushed the bounds of it in Game 1. Coming off a very tight-checking series against the Lightning in which scoring chances were hard-earned and few-and-far-between, the Leafs had to be salivating at all the open ice available against the Panthers in Game 1, producing nearly six expected goals (5.8 per MoneyPuck).
The issue is that’s exactly the kind of game the Panthers wanted, which is to bait the Leafs into a style of hockey that would open up opportunities on the counterattack. It’s a style of game that turns this series from one that should favour the Leafs — and their vastly superior defensive numbers — into more of a coin flip against an offensively-potent Panthers team.
Maple Leafs vs. Panthers regular season statistics
The Leafs will also need some improved individual performances. William Nylander, pointless in his last three, took some heat for not attacking the net enough (one play, in particular, has been making the rounds on Twitter), while Mitch Marner has also struggled to produce individual scoring chances at five-on-five recently and has not scored since Game 2 against the Lightning.
After Game 1, Sheldon Keefe hinted at potentially playing around with the lines. However, after the morning skate, it appears as though only one change will be made. Zach Aston-Reese will be a healthy scratch, and Sam Lafferty will draw back into the lineup. As a result, Alex Kerfoot will slide over to the left-wing spot on the fourth line.
It’s worth noting that (assuming the fourth line is Kerfoot-Kämpf-Lafferty) with the substitution of Lafferty for Aston-Reese, the Leafs’ bottom line will now feature the three players with the lowest CF% and xGF% on the team in these playoffs. That said, this may be the kind of series — more of a “skating” game with a more open neutral zone — that Lafferty could make an impact on after he was a non-factor in the first series. It’s a line that should have more than enough pace on it with Kerfoot and Lafferty flanking Kampf.
Predictably, Florida will not make any lineup changes after their Game 1 win. Toronto will have to find a way to slow down the top line headlined by Matthew Tkachuk in Game 2, and we can probably expect the Auston Matthews line to take on that matchup from the start of the game this time.
Furthermore, be it through more traffic or bearing down better/elevating the puck on their chances in tight to the net, the Leafs are going to have to find a way to solve the lateral agility of Sergei Bobrovsky after he produced one of the better games of his playoff career on Tuesday night, including a number of really sharp post-to-post stops.
Game Day Quotes
Morgan Rielly on whether the Leafs have dictated play enough in the playoffs:
I don’t think we have. Tampa series, they controlled Game 1 and we controlled Game 2. Other than that, I don’t think we were dominant by any means. If you look at Game 1 of this series, we’re looking to bounce back.
Rielly on the Leafs’ power play failing to convert in Game 1:
We did a power play meeting this morning. I thought there was lots of good things in the moment (in Game 1), but then when you watch it back, I think it confirms it. We were moving around pretty good.
Obviously, when you don’t get one, that has a big impact on the game. We have to figure out a way to score on the power play, but I thought there were some pretty good things going on.
Luke Schenn on the physicality of the Tkachuk line:
Obviously, (Tkachuk), (Sam) Bennett, and (Nick) Cousins play a little bit of a chippy game and get in the corners. Tkachuk and Bennett play a heavy game. They are really effective with using their bodies and their size in a power-forward sort of game. You expect the physicality to pick up as the series goes on.
Schenn on bouncing back from losses in the playoffs:
One thing about the playoffs is that you have to have a short memory, good or bad. Coming off a win, you are feeling like you have momentum, but the other team is going to respond, and you have to come out and push that much harder — or vice versa after a loss, too.
You always have to push. That’s what makes it so fun and intense.
Sheldon Keefe on the play of the McCabe-Brodie pair:
Those guys have had tough matchups and defended really well. If you look at anything with them, their issues would be similar to our team in a lot of ways when things have not gone well, which is just not spending enough time on offense.
That would really be it that’s impacting them: They are defending too much, which is wearing them down, and they’re not on the offensive side nearly enough.
Keefe on reinserting Sam Lafferty into the lineup:
He’s got a lot of pace to his game that can help. That’s really it, to be honest. We’re just looking at keeping him involved.
Obviously, we first sat him and Aston-Reese together when we went 11/7. We didn’t intend to keep him out for the two games, but that’s just the way that it worked out.
Having Bunting back in the mix changes the dynamic of that line a little bit. The speed factor is one thing, and getting Kerfoot back on the left side is one thing. It’s just looking at all those different factors and making a decision to get him in.
Paul Maurice on the effectiveness of the Cousins-Bennett-Tkachuk line:
Well, they just play, and everybody has two arms and two legs. I don’t think this is the greatest line in the history of hockey. I think we’re in Toronto. They had three points. The puck is going to drop.
If they break the puck out better against that line, they’re not just saving it for that line and saying, “Hey, let’s not break the puck out…” It’s going to be the whole focus of what they try to do and what we try to do.
I move that line around a fair bit. Verhaeghe might be on the wing tonight. We all do that and move our guys around a little bit.
Maurice on the response he is expecting from the Leafs in Game 2:
In their Game 2, they scored a minute into the power play and got rolling. They scored a faceoff goal on Tavares, and then they scored ta 6-on-5 with Nylander down the side. They came in hot. That is what they are going to try to do tonight.
Our Game 2 after a loss, we were really good in the first period against Boston, too. The advantage is Toronto right now. They get a little more fire. Our job is to go out and re-establish our game.
Maurice on whether the team feels like it’s playing with house money and is pressure-free:
I like to think we are playing to a standard — to a game of something we are trying to accomplish, to define a game not just for this year but for the next five years.
It is something we talked about at the end of January. We had a really brutal schedule and were banged up. Our ability to fight through that would define our franchise for the next five years. That is how we felt.
In the Boston series, we felt we had to develop a style of game that is sustainable. That is what we will hold ourselves to. Some of the other pressure outside of that and how far you go… It’s simple. We are trying to get to Game 7 in every series that we can.
This isn’t a marathon for us. We aren’t here for two months. We are here for tonight. I think we haven’t accepted the outside pressure of how far you have to go in your season to do well and to say, “You had a nice year.” We have a certain game we are trying to get to with each player. That is kind of it.
Maurice on the difference in pressure the Leafs are facing versus his own team:
The pressure is far more extreme here. There are dangers in all extremes. Larry Murphy couldn’t play in the league except for the three Stanley Cups that he won after he left.
There is that extreme, and then the other extreme is a player who is a good player and you can’t afford to pay him anymore because he scored a certain… It is a harder thing there.
But it’s also a totally equal tradeoff in that the scrutiny forces players to be more focused here. You are not getting away with a tough night in Toronto. If your game is not tight, eight of you are writing about it. You are not giving them three weeks.
I think it is just a trade there.
Toronto Maple Leafs Projected Lines
Forwards
#58 Michael Bunting – #34 Auston Matthews – #16 Mitch Marner
#19 Calle Järnkrok – #91 John Tavares – #88 William Nylander
#23 Matthew Knies – #90 Ryan O’Reilly – #52 Noel Acciari
#15 Alex Kerfoot – #64 David Kämpf – #28 Sam Lafferty
Defensemen
#22 Jake McCabe – #78 TJ Brodie
#44 Morgan Rielly – #2 Luke Schenn
#55 Mark Giordano – #37 Timothy Liljegren
Goaltenders
Starter: #35 Ilya Samsonov
#60 Joseph Woll
Scratched: Erik Gustafsson, Justin Holl, Wayne Simmonds, Zach Aston-Reese
Injured: Nick Robertson, Jake Muzzin
Florida Panthers Projected Lines
Forwards
#23 Carter Verhaeghe – #16 Aleksander Barkov – #10 Anthony Duclair
#21 Nick Cousins – #9 Sam Bennett – #19 Matthew Tkachuk
#27 Eetu Luostarinen – #15 Anton Lundell – #13 Sam Reinhart
#6 Colin White – #15 Eric Staal – #22 Zach Dalpe
Defensemen
#42 Gustav Forsling – #5 Aaron Ekblad
#18 Marc Staal – #62 Brandon Montour
#28 Josh Mahura – #7 Radko Gudas
Goaltenders
#72 Sergei Bobrovsky
#34 Alex Lyon
Injured: Spencer Knight, Patric Hornqvist, Ryan Lomberg
