First and foremost, Happy New Year to the MLHS community!
I hope the holidays treated you all nicely.
For the Leafs, the holiday break was not particularly kind: three losses between Christmas and New Year’s Eve, last year’s starter, Ilya Samsonov, was put on waivers, and a veteran forward, David Kampf, was healthy scratched. Some of the concerns settled down after an excellent win against the LA Kings, which was, for my money, the team’s best win of the season.
I’ve always believed that things never look as good as they seem when teams are winning or as bad as they seem when they are losing. For the Leafs, it can be easy to forget that they are firmly in a playoff position and one of the highest-scoring teams in the league. The questions really center around positioning themselves in the standings for playoff success.
With Toronto’s dip in play of late, coupled with the Panthers’ five-game winning streak and the Bruins continuing to pick up points, the Leafs are comfortably third in the division at the time of writing and face a path that is essentially starting on the road versus Florida followed by a likely date on the road in Boston. Needless to say, that’s a really tough path.
While the Leafs have bled points against bottom feeders, they have generally gone toe to toe with the top teams in the league. Two games against the Bruins both went into overtime. They traded wins with the Panthers and Rangers, seemingly have Tampa’s number, played a one-goal game against Carolina. They have competed and stepped up when they’ve needed to.
There was one notable exception, which was when LA came to town and handily outplayed them en route to a 4-1 win in late October. It was the only game this season where the Leafs looked legitimately outclassed. It wasn’t even close.
The Leafs turned around and really outplayed the Kings for the first half of the game last night, built a lead, and then snuffed out pretty well all of their attacks. It was not only good to see that they’re capable of it but also a good reminder that this team can actually check defensively at a high level.
It was only a week ago that we talked about their defensive issues, including the ugly stats that essentially placed them in the company of lottery teams defensively. Sure, they’ve lost some solid checkers in Alex Kerfoot, Zach Aston-Reese, and Pierre Engvall, but those three players should not be the difference in dropping from a top-10 team defensively to a lottery-level team. They didn’t even play enough to impact the team results to that degree.
Even with Toronto’s defensive injuries, the solution is not as simplistic as getting healthy. A good chunk of their struggles have stemmed from their forwards not checking well enough. Giving up the kinds of odd-man rushes the Leafs too often have is generally a result of not maintaining a proper F3 or tracking back well enough.
When they commit to it, the Leafs can check. On most nights, though, they have generally tried to outscore their issues. Throughout a regular season, that is good enough to get them into the playoffs, but it won’t suffice against other top teams at playoff time. Florida is third in the league in goals against per game at 2.51 while the Bruins are fourth at 2.56. The Leafs are 22nd at 3.34.
As the second half of the season nears, the Leafs need to find a better balance between offense and defense. I think they’re capable of playing much more balanced than they have shown — and the win over the Kings last night should be a model — but they need to show it night in and night out.
Notes
– We’ve talked about Jake McCabe’s uptick in offensive production in the past in this space, and with Timothy Liljegren returning, we’re starting to see him on the scoresheet as well. Against Columbus, Liljegren joined the rush after a heads-up pass up ice to catch them on a terrible line change and then one-timed the puck, leading to a Nick Robertson goal. Against Carolina, he joined the attack and ripped a great shot in as the trailer.
Last season, Liljegren led the defense in goals with six (which is a low number to lead a defense, but good for him individually). He has five points in eight games since returning (although those points have come in three games). He brings a clear ability to move the puck and produce from the back end that’s sorely needed on this team.
With Morgan Rielly on the top pairing, Liljegren on the next, and McCabe on the final pairing, it gives the Leafs a defenseman on each pairing who is reasonably productive (or in Rielly’s cases, very productive). It’s not perfect, but it’s improving.
– Early in the first period against LA, Nick Robertson received a breakout pass just over the Leafs’ blue line, tried deking a Kings forward, got stonewalled, and the Kings shoved it down the Leafs’ throat for roughly a minute of offensive-zone possession time. Robertson played a game-low 8:39, with nearly an eighth of that coming on that shift alone. The next lowest (somewhat surprisingly) was Calle Jarnkrok at 11:40; nobody was even close to Robertson’s game low.
Robertson’s production — 11 points in 24 games — is reasonable, and he can make a play with some time and space. But when in tight-checking games, he really struggles and he doesn’t produce enough to be a weak point defensively for other teams to pick on.
We’ve said this before, but it’s worth repeating: There’s nothing wrong with giving a young player ice time and games at this point of the season. That is partly why you play 82. But in terms of looking ahead to the playoffs, the tea leaves are pretty clear unless Robertson’s game evolves quickly.
– Speaking of Calle Jarnkrok, we haven’t really given him his flowers to this point in this space. Over the offseason, he was a player I singled out as a potential cap casualty given his term and career high in goals last season, but that would have been a mistake. It’s a good thing they kept him.
Jarnkrok has moved up and down the lineup in the first half of the season, serving as a defensive conscious on every line but one who is still capable of producing as he did against the Kings when he was alone in front.
Jarnkrok is essentially duplicating last season’s goals and points-per-game rates to go along with his checking and penalty-killing abilities. A low-maintenance player who just shows up and does his job night in and night out.
I don’t really think it’s a question at this point, but it’s worth pointing out there was lots of talk about Jarnkrok playing center when he first signed in Toronto; he received looks there, but he is clearly a winger. It’s important to put players in the right positions to succeed. The coaching staff seems to have a comfort level with Jarnkrok now in terms of where to slot him so he can best contribute to the team.
Quotes
“I was surprised and I didn’t expect it. I came in wanting to be ready for the game, but I got a message from (coach) Sheldon (Keefe) that I’m out. I’ll keep working hard and be better.”
– David Kampf on sitting out the Carolina game as a healthy scratch
I think one of the biggest issues with David Kampf, in particular, has been that he’s trying to produce to help justify his big contract extension. That was clear when he tried to make a play against Columbus rather than being responsible with the puck in a game the Leafs were leading (Adam Fantilli scored what was truly a brutal goal after the turnover).
A lot of people will look at Kampf’s point totals and then his cap hit, but the reality is that is not why the Leafs signed him. They signed him to do what he did against LA, which was lock things down and close out a lead for the team. The fourth line was excellent in his return, and he played 14:30, which ranked sixth among Leafs forwards. That’s why he’s here.
I agree Kampf needed to hear this message, but I don’t agree with the general premise of seemingly only holding the depth players accountable.
“We have a lot of talent and a lot of skill. We know that. It is the ability to check. When we do that on a real consistent basis from the top down in our lineup… We are going to score enough, but we have to check.
When you look throughout the league, look at the team we are playing [LA Kings]. It is a great team. They pride themselves on checking first.
It is a big [key] to our success. It is a long way of saying that we have to continue with that mindset. The results will follow.”
– Brad Treliving on assessing the team’s play so far this season
I don’t think Leafs management has been fooled by some of the results so far this season, which is a good thing. There are clear spots to upgrade on this team.
Fans can talk about goaltending all they want, but the team’s defensive play needs to be way better, they clearly need to add a top-four defenseman, and they also clearly have a roster spot to upgrade where Nick Robertson has been playing. In net, Joseph Woll will eventually get healthy while Ilya Samsonov lingers as more of a wildcard with the potential to help than he gets credit for.
“I guess you could call it a message to the group. There is going to be less tolerance for that. We have to get better in this area. That is it.
In particular, members of our leadership group — as David is — we trust to lead the way for us. The expectations are higher. Kampf, specifically, has to be a leader on that line. He has to be a leader in those types of situations where we are in control of the game.
It is obviously not just him. It is the guys that we really rely on to be good in those areas, whether you are the top guys who produce a lot of offense — we need those guys to be good in these areas as well, of course — but for someone like Kampfer, in particular, that is his job. That is his primary job and focus when he is on the ice. When he strays from that, he opens up opportunities for others to take his minutes.”
– Sheldon Keefe on holding players accountable
Again, I am not going to rehash this entire thing, but I think the struggles among top players have been notable at times, and while they do get more leeway because they are stars, some of the defensive miscues have been glaring and hardly a peep has been heard. When a coach draws a line in the sand like this, everyone will be watching when it inevitably happens again.
Tweets of the Week
what's happening here pic.twitter.com/5fSUunQYBT
— JFresh (@JFreshHockey) December 31, 2023
Over the past three seasons, only Connor McDavid, Nathan MacKinnon, Leon Draisaitl, and Mikko Rantanen have averaged a higher time on ice per game than Mitch Marner. Three of those players have produced at significantly higher rates while Rantanen has 31 more goals in that time.
Now, it is correct to point out that Marner plays on the penalty kill — it does impact his ice time significantly — but at some point, you have to look at the bottom line and conclude this is probably a bit too high for him and is impacting his game negatively as a result.
Playing that much every single night over multiple seasons eventually changes a player’s game. Marner plays like a player pacing himself through the game rather than attacking it — and that is not really his fault.
There used to be Marner games where he would come out flying and you’d instantly know he was going to have a night. He has played great games this season — he is a great player, so of course he has! — but I can’t think of a single one where he has come out absolutely flying and flat-out dominated.
Marner’s speed burst rate is below the 50th percentile in the league, which is the first time he’s dipped below that mark since the data has been tracked (he was in the 78th percentile last season and 66th the season before).
Are #LeafsForever and William Nylander close to making a deal? @RealKyper shares the latest on the Nylander contract talks with @jtbourne & @SamAMcKee.
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📺 https://t.co/SqK7M993Jz & @Sportsnet 360
📻 https://t.co/tEtiRUWyip pic.twitter.com/LyCawfFBqK— Sportsnet 590 The FAN (@FAN590) January 2, 2024
I already wrote about the William Nylander situation last month and don’t particularly have much to add to it. Again, he is enjoying a career season across the board and is doing things — such as driving the net — at a higher rate than he ever has before. He’s a very good player and already was going into this season, but it’s a contract-year season.
Nylander is among the top five scorers in the league this season and there isn’t a single team that is prioritizing matching their top checkers against him. They are all rightfully focusing their resources on Auston Matthews. It’s not a knock on Nylander; it’s just the reality. He’s not in the tier that these numbers suggest ($11+ million), which also includes David Pastrnak.
On a historic regular season Bruins team, Pastrnak produced 61 goals last season and was the focal point of their offensive attack. To say nothing of the fact that Pastrnak is over a point per game in his career (39 more points than games played), while Nylander is well under that pace (78 more games played than points). Again, it’s not a knock — Pastrnak is one of the best players in the league — but let’s not kid ourselves here. This is not the same category of players.
I’m told ; @MapleLeafs to use all resources from development coach, mental skills coach, watch video from yr- a comprehensive approach to help Samsonov feel like himself.” IF he clears waivers, no plans for him to play in games for Marlies this week. #LeafsForever #HockeyX pic.twitter.com/flCGhgQ882
— Kevin Weekes (@KevinWeekes) December 31, 2023
I think this is the right approach. I fail to see how playing against American league players is going to help his confidence at all. He needs to clear his head and get back to the fundamentals. Hopefully, this time will help him do that.
Five Things I Think I’d Do
1. As much as we talk about spreading out the elite talent across three lines (and it not happening under Sheldon Keefe), I want to offer a different reason for doing it. This team has struggled against bottom-feeders for years. They almost always come out too loose, knowing they are playing an inferior opponent. After falling behind, they eventually turn it on and mount some sort of furious attack to try to come back.
Why not just split it up from the start and challenge them in a different environment? New linemates keep players on their toes. For a player such as Nick Robertson (as one example), if playing a game a line with someone like Mitch Marner doesn’t give him some sort of boost, nothing really will for this season. For Marner (or Matthews or even Nylander), it’s a different sort of challenge.
2. In the four games since the Christmas break, the Leafs’ power play is clicking at just 14.3 percent. Some of it is due to games against two of the best penalty-killing teams in the league (Carolina and LA), but I do think they need to get back to basics.
Auston Matthews needs to be the focal point of the whole thing, even if he isn’t always the shooter. Seemingly every game, Mitch Marner and Morgan Rielly each attempt to float a shot through that is blocked and cleared. They love the down-low play with Marner as well.
William Nylander leads the team in power play shots with 42, John Tavares is next with 34, and then Matthews is next with 24 in 34 games. He’s the best goal-scorer in the world. This isn’t particularly complicated. He should be shooting way more than this on the power play.
3. Still on the note about the power play, I think I would rotate Tyler Bertuzzi in for John Tavares in front of the net. I think Bertuzzi brings something a little different from that spot in that he’s sneakily a really good passer. He’s also a bit of a menace there and attracts a ton of attention.
While Tavares doesn’t play that style, what makes him so good is the hand-eye coordination and ability to find pucks in tight. But he only has three power-play goals this season. His biggest benefit on the power play right now might be his faceoff abilities.
4. I think I would start Dennis Hildeby against Anaheim. I see no reason to play Martin Jones back-to-back, first and foremost. He is about to turn 34 on January 10 and he’s the starter right now. You have to play the long game to some degree.
On the other end, it’s not like this is a charity start for Hildeby. He has been excellent and has reasonably earned a look because of it. Let’s see what he does. It also puts extra attention on the Leafs as a team to continue playing tight defensively.
5. Now that we are in January, I think it is an appropriate time to start discussing potential acquisitions.
Jake McCabe and Sam Lafferty both struggled to adjust after coming to Toronto. Lafferty was ultimately unceremoniously moved — which was a mistake — and McCabe basically took until coming back from injury this season to really get going. Ryan O’Reilly got hurt and it impacted Keefe’s ability to play with the lines.
It is beneficial to add players as soon as possible to give them ample time to settle in and find their groove. On the encouraging side, Brad Treliving did this a few years ago when he jumped the market and acquired Tyler Toffoli about a month before the trade deadline.
There has been so much talk about the Leafs knowing they need a defenseman and understanding what the cost is. It’s time to pay it and inject some quality into this defense to round out this roster.
