Led by four goals from the Max Pacioretty – John Tavares – William Nylander line, the Maple Leafs broke out offensively at five-on-five, snapping their three-game losing streak and the Jets’ eight-game winning streak with a 6-4 victory in Winnipeg.
It feels like the Leafs could’ve entered the prior Boston matchup sitting at 8-0-0, with the Bruins at 0-8-0, and still lost the game. The situation is similar for the Leafs and Jets, only this matchup is in Toronto’s favour. Sometimes, you simply have a team’s number, and the Leafs definitely have Winnipeg’s (now six wins in a row).
Your game in 10:
1. Playing their second consecutive tough matchup away from home, the Leafs needed a far better opening road period tonight after the ice was tilted against them in Boston on Saturday. They got exactly that, flipping the script at five-on-five:
- 23-11 shot attempts in favour of Toronto
- 15-5 shots in favour of Toronto (19-6 over all situations)
- 12-3 scoring chances in favour of Toronto (6-0 high danger)
- 1.44-0.18 xGF (89%) in favour of Toronto
- 2-0 Toronto lead on the scoreboard
The Leafs had their legs and were executing Craig Berube’s desired identity to a T — pucks in deep, going to work on the forecheck, forcing turnovers, funneling pucks on goal, and getting bodies to the front of the net. On both first-period goals, they simply put pucks in deep, applied forechecking pressure, and capitalized on a couple of turnovers via botched plays below the goal line by the Jets.
2. John Tavares opened the scoring after forcing the initial turnover down low off a Mitch Marner dump-in at the end of his shift. The puck was swatted around the zone for a bit before Jake McCabe sent it toward the net with a shot for tip. Max Pacioretty applied the initial deflection, then located the loose puck in traffic before one-arm shuffling it toward Tavares at the back post for the 1-0 finish.
"TAVARES TAPS IT HOME!"
Tavares 3rd of the Season vs Jets courtesy of @Bonsie1951 and @Jim_Ralph. @LeafsJelly pic.twitter.com/8N4ys8Mslj
— Maple Leafs Hotstove (@LeafsNews) October 29, 2024
The Tavares line doubled up their tally five minutes later off another dump-in play. On the forecheck, Pacioretty anticipated the blind-pass bump play into the middle by Neal Pionk, intercepted it, and immediately found William Nylander in front, where Nylander buried it up high for the 2-0.
Nylander 6th of the Season vs Jets courtesy of @Bonsie1951 and @Jim_Ralph. @LeafsJelly pic.twitter.com/4ykDCplkkx
— Maple Leafs Hotstove (@LeafsNews) October 29, 2024
Both were workmanlike goals stemming from the same simple formula of pucks in deep, puck pursuit down low, and a direct approach to getting pucks and bodies to the net. This was always going to be the way out of the scoring funk at five-on-five.
3. The only two Leafs power plays of the game took place within 11 minutes of one another in the first period, so it wasn’t a major sample size to evaluate the new units.
The first unit, with Matthews (half-wall), Marner (half-wall/QB), Pacioretty (bumper), Knies (net front), and Rielly, won draws and moved the puck around well with some good motion and urgency about directing pucks on net. They attempted seven shots in their ~2:15 of total PP time (three hit the net), including a couple of good looks for Matthews. A couple of Rielly turnovers disrupted their pressure, and there wasn’t an ultimate breakthrough, but it wasn’t totally discouraging.
The second unit, with Tavares, Nylander, Domi, McMann, and OEL, saw ~1:45 of ice time and attempted only one shot due to turnovers by Tavares (x2) and Nylander on the half walls.
4. For the second consecutive game, Matthew Knies scored on the first shift of the second period. It was more of the same recipe from the Leafs. A puck was dumped in off an OEL stretch pass to a Marner tip-in at center, before a disrupted D-to-D play on the forecheck by F1 (Knies) caused a turnover. Knies immediately sent the puck to the front of the net for a couple of shot attempts (by Marner and Matthews) before Knies buried the third opportunity for his fifth of the season.
"KNIES TIDIES UP THE GARBAGE!"
Knies 5th of the Season vs Jets courtesy of @Bonsie1951 and @Jim_Ralph. @LeafsJelly pic.twitter.com/Ibi0rgMWWA
— Maple Leafs Hotstove (@LeafsNews) October 29, 2024
This is the early beginnings of what looks to be a big breakout sophomore season for Knies, who is doing it all for the Leafs: acquitting himself well over 200 feet against top competition on the Matthews line, protecting leads late in games, burying his chances at a high rate, and playing a notable role on both the power play and penalty kill, while perfectly suiting the Berube style of hockey with his forechecking and net-front presence. He was particularly effective on a critical third-period kill with the score at 5-3, nearly scoring a highlight-reel shorthanded goal in the process.
5. Just two and a half minutes later, the game looked like a runaway for the Leafs as the big night for the Pacioretty – Tavares – Nylander line continued.
A draw win by Tavares led to an OEL shot attempt that Tavares won the race to recover, before Pacioretty and Tavares worked the walls down low briefly. With a pass off the wall, Pacioretty picked out Nylander in the right circle, where #88 pulled off a slick no-look backhand pass to the far point to Morgan Rielly jumping up. Rielly ripped it bar down to make it 4-0 Leafs.
Rielly 3rd of the Season vs Jets courtesy of @Bonsie1951 and @Jim_Ralph. @LeafsJelly pic.twitter.com/k0HSrHWCGS
— Maple Leafs Hotstove (@LeafsNews) October 29, 2024
The early returns from the line speak for themselves tonight. If Nylander can transport the puck for the trio so that Tavares-Pacioretty can play the half-court offense — as they do so well with their strength, skill, puck protection, and finishing ability — while Nylander lurks around the high slot and darts in and out of holes to make plays/rip shots on goal, there could be something here.
A sort of similar line dynamic played out successfully with Bertuzzi – Tavares – Nylander last season, albeit there are notable differences in Pacioretty vs. Bertuzzi’s ages and skill sets. The Tavares-Nylander combination has historically under-delivered at 5v5 (outscored 50-46, prior to tonight, in over 1,000 minutes of 5v5 time), but the Bertuzzi – Tavares – Nylander line went on to outscore the opposition 16-12 and owned its 5v5 minutes.
6. Shots were 24-8 at this point in the game, with a score of 4-0, as everything was coming up Maple Leafs. The game became competitive again due to the combination of a couple of game-management penalty calls — on Pontus Holmberg and Oliver Ekman-Larsson — as well as a Leafs penalty kill that was not up to snuff in the middle frame against a league-leading Jets power play that is really feeling it right now. Winnipeg scored two power-play goals inside five minutes to make it 4-2.
The penalty issue remains significant (-8 penalty differential, with 45 taken in 10 games), but on the PK front, if the units’ primary goal is to take away the power play’s biggest shot threat, David Pastrnak and Kyle Connor had far too many clean one-time looks off of wide-open seam plays in these past two games.
On the first Connor goal, with the Lorentz-Kampf pairing on the ice, Steven Lorentz went on a rush down the ice after a shot block and ripped a shot so high and wide it kick-started a potential rush chance/easy entry the other way, which can’t happen when you’re Steven Lorentz. His stick was then in the wrong spot on the seam play through to Connor for the goal.
Notably, when the next kill happened less than five minutes later, Lorentz did not touch the ice, as Holmberg-Knies followed behind Matthews-Marner instead.
7. That kill mentioned above did not end well, either. Simon Benoit aggressively stepped up on Gabe Vilardi on the wall at the line off the entry and got burned, sparking a bit of a scramble where the Leafs never really got fully set before Connor ripped another one-timer past Stolarz.
It’s noteworthy that Benoit has been on the ice for a team-leading five goals against while shorthanded, and while he’s not at fault for all of them, he has been guilty of overplaying it at times, putting himself in bad spots. He’s also now taken five penalties in 10 games (the most on the Leafs’ defense, without drawing any in the process), including an ill-timed, sloppy tripping penalty in the third period tonight. Steady PK contributions and hard but disciplined defensive hockey need to be staples of your game if you’re in Benoit’s role, and he’s edging toward a night off if he doesn’t clean it up here.
As for the Leafs’ special teams as a whole, they’re now -5 net, with just three goals in 33 PP opportunities and eight goals against on the PK through 10 games. After tonight, at 5v5, they’re in the top five in goals per 60 and just inside the top 10 in goals against per 60, outscoring the opposition 25-17 at 5v5. The central problem area is clear.
8. The Leafs settled the game down at five-on-five before the dream night continued for the Tavares line, who restored the three-goal lead for the Maple Leafs late in the second period. They nearly scored on their shift prior before breaking through with a critical lead-padding goal with two minutes left in the middle frame (which later stood up as the game-winner).
Another Tavares faceoff win — one of his 16 tonight (76%) — was followed by more good puck pursuit in the offensive zone by the line, as Nylander and Tavares forced a turnover. Oliver Ekman-Larsson kept the puck in before receiving it back from Nylander and firing an intelligent point shot into a productive area in front of the net. Strong in his net-front battle, Tavares freed his stick up amidst the traffic to whack home his second of the night from the top of the crease.
Tavares 4th of the Season vs Jets courtesy of @Bonsie1951 and @Jim_Ralph. @LeafsJelly pic.twitter.com/iz6qTr8mK0
— Maple Leafs Hotstove (@LeafsNews) October 29, 2024
OEL is now up to six points in 10 games, all of which have come at 5v5, placing him fourth in the league among defensemen in 5v5 point scoring. 19 of his 23 shots on goal have come at 5v5, placing him just outside the top 10 (as do his 41 shot attempts at 5v5).
OEL and Rielly are both inside the top 20 in shots on goal (all situations) a year after the Leafs had a total of one defenseman inside the top 125 in that category (Rielly, obviously). Some of it is due to systemic changes under Berube vs. Keefe, but OEL’s talent and offensive instincts alone have added a notable/much-needed uplift in offensive activity and production from the blue line, to go along with an understated physical edge/pest quality (the Jets were annoyed with him throughout the night, as many opponents have been so far this season).
9. In the third period, the game appeared reasonably in hand for the first five minutes before it got more than a little bit sketchy from the Leafs perspective. Both the 5-3 and 5-4 Jets goals (both scored at 6-on-5) started with sloppy Jake McCabe D-to-D plays behind the net, leading to turnovers and inviting pressure against.
On the first one, it wasn’t technically a PK goal against, but it came with a delayed penalty after Nylander, later in a shift, got caught reaching in with his stick. The Jets got a sixth man on the ice who ultimately set up the goal (Connor) on another one-time play to Mark Scheifele through the seam, as the Leafs’ forwards were standing around looking tired without much detail toward taking away passing lanes.
The second goal also came at 6-on-5, this time due to a goalie pull, with the same five-man unit out for the Leafs (McCabe-Tanev / Tavares line), except Knies was in Pacioretty’s place. Again, the D-to-D play from McCabe needed to be cleaner in the execution, especially from the shutdown D pairing when protecting the lead, and Stolarz wasn’t able to come up with the save, this time due to a deflection in front.
Anthony Stolarz conceded four goals on just 23 shots, and while the bang-bang east-west one-time plays and passes out from behind the net for one-timers are not easy plays for a goalie, you’d like him to come up with at least one more save somewhere along the way. Most of the goals found holes more than they were perfect shots. This was Stolarz’s weakest start as a Leaf, which partly speaks to how high he set the bar in his first six starts.
I’ll be curious to see how the Leafs manage the upcoming slate of games in net. There is a back-to-back on the weekend, and the first game (on Saturday) is in Woll’s hometown of St. Louis, where he’s never made an NHL start. It stands to reason the Leafs would go Stolarz vs. Seattle on Thursday, Woll vs. St. Louis on Saturday, followed by Stolarz vs. Minnesota on Sunday.
10. In the immediate aftermath of the 5-4 goal, Berube leaned on the Matthews line for a double shift — with a brief appearance from the McMann-Domi-Holmberg line in between — before running a Matthews-Marner-Tavares / McCabe-Tanev close-out unit coming off the Winnipeg timeout. The Leafs handled the game well at 5-4, never conceding a shot or much zone time at all and actually creating the two best chances on solo dashes the other way via Marner and McMann. Notably, David Kampf never saw a shift in the close-out effort (again).
The Leafs closed off space in the neutral zone well and were firm in their battles/clearances on the walls in the final stages, and Chris Tanev was surehanded when managing a Jets dump-in prior to the Tavares empty-netter, which clinched Tavares’ hat trick.
JOHN TAVARES HAT TRICK vs Jets courtesy of @Bonsie1951 and @Jim_Ralph. @LeafsJelly pic.twitter.com/tBAQtVwdKd
— Maple Leafs Hotstove (@LeafsNews) October 29, 2024
With a loaded-up top six that has returned to the familiar Matthews-Marner / Tavares – Nylander makeup, the Leafs needed their stars to win those matchups against a Jets team with a more balanced look to their forward lines. They got just that, overcoming a special teams deficit with mostly dominant five-on-five play from their top six. xGF were over 80% for the Matthews and Tavares lines at 5v5, and goals were 5-0 (4-0 for the Tavares line alone, albeit they conceded two at 6-on-5 in the third).
It was a promising start for the Pacioretty – Tavares – Nylander line, but it’s wait-and-see as to how this current lineup configuration will shake out. Without another quality top-nine center added to the fold, will the overall forward group have enough balance if the team’s best LW, best C, and best RW are all loaded on one line, while Tavares-Nylander play together behind them? A healthy Calle Jarnkrok and Connor Dewar, substituted in over Holmberg/Robertson and Reaves (for example), would help upgrade the bottom six, but will it be enough to create the quality of depth the team will need down the road?
In the meantime, we’ve seen that the stars are more than good enough to drive the team to reasonably strong regular-season results, but Sheldon Keefe (eventually) worked his way to the correct conclusion that simply running these duos along with an afterthought for a bottom-six can’t be the final answer when push comes to shove at playoff time.