Another week of piling up wins has the Maple Leafs comfortably in the driver’s seat at the top of the Atlantic Division.
However, this is the week we find out if they can retain it, as they have a big Florida trip and play out their final two back-to-backs of the regular season.
Suddenly, Florida is resting all their key players and appears more than content to drop back into a wildcard spot, so winning the Atlantic may not be the advantage you’d hope for. Drawing a Florida team that’s healing up all their top players for the playoffs and should be back to full health is no reward. It’s the hardest first-round matchup in the East.
That said, all the Leafs can do is take care of themselves and their game.
With two weeks remaining, all sorts of scenarios are still very much on the table, but at this point, it appears likely that the Leafs secured home-ice advantage in the first round, if nothing else.
In the meantime, I will get right into the notebook as I anticipate dropping another article later this week.
Notes
– Last season, William Nylander scored his 40th goal, then went on an 11-game goalless drought to end the season before missing the start of the playoffs. I am not sure if it’s a better omen or anything, but it’s nice to see none of that happening this year as he just keeps on rolling right past 40 with his career high 44th and counting.
– I much prefer this end to the season where the only question is where does the team finish in the Atlantic compared to tracking some sort of individual milestone. I don’t really blame Auston Matthews for pursuing 70 goals so hard — it was cool to a degree — but the focus wasn’t really on winning or the playoffs the way it clearly is this year. We will see if it makes a difference at all.
– Craig Berube has commented a few times about how Matthews and Mitch Marner’s minutes have gotten away from him at times throughout the season. In a tight game against Florida, though, he managed to keep them both under 21 minutes (20:40 for Marner; 20:34 for Matthews). It was a shorthanded Panthers team, but that’s still ultimately the range you’d like to see them in rather than the 22 or 23+ minutes we’ve seen them regularly play in big games. They run out of gas when that happens, as most players would.
– Against Columbus, both players were able to rest up too, as Matthews didn’t even hit 17 minutes while Marner played 17:19. Marner has actually logged his four lowest ice times of the season in the Leafs‘ past 10 games as they look to manage his minutes ahead of the playoffs.
– Saturday night’s bout was Steven Lorentz’s first fight since 2022, and while it showed, it was nice to see the 6’4 Lorentz get a little angry and push back. They are going to count on him for physicality in the playoffs. He has been a really nice fit overall — trustworthy defensively, some penalty-killing utility, and some offense, including four game-winning goals. Can’t ask for much more from a player who originally signed a PTO.
– For all the talk of the Leafs defensive improvement — and it is there as they have moved up from 21st in goals against per game last season, to 14th this season — it’s noteworthy that they have the second worst goals against per game rate of the eight teams that are going to make the playoffs in the East. Only the Montreal Canadiens are worse.
The Leafs‘ goaltending is much more capable of stealing a game on its own — and again, they’ve trended well defensively from last season to a much more acceptable above-average unit — but it’s certainly not a lockdown unit. Their strength is still on the offensive side of the puck, where they are tied for seventh in goals per game. Only Washington and Tampa Bay rank ahead of them in the East. Since the trade deadline, they are third in the league in goals per game, with only Buffalo and St. Louis scoring more.
They don’t outscore their problems the way they used to, but make no mistake, the Leafs’ strength is still in their high-end scoring, and that’s with Matthews experiencing a down year offensively by his standards.
– I’m not sure if the broadcast caught this at all, but at the Leafs-Panthers game, Mats Sundin came out to deliver a gift to the Leafs Troop honouree. It rules to see Mats in and around the team more often now. I hope to see more involvement from him moving forward. What a presence. The crowd went wild when he came out.
Quotes
“I think the mentality of being together, sticking together, and helping each other out is part of the reason.”
– Craig Berube on 12 different Leafs players recording a fight on the team this season
We will see how the playoffs go, but it’s noteworthy that no real moment comes to mind where the Leafs have been physically taken advantage of or pushed around in an egregious way this season. There’s been no team meeting to address a cheap shot that injured a player for weeks like last season. It’s been a story for years with this group, but it isn’t this year, and that in and of itself is a story.
“Defensively, on rush reads, I’m really starting to recognize his voice and him with my voice as well. It’s been great. It’s an ideal partnership. Guy like that is the perfect guy that I love to play with.”
– Brandon Carlo on playing with Morgan Rielly
The Morgan Rielly–Brandon Carlo are now up 9-5 in their five-on-five minutes, and as you may recall, they promptly started their minutes 0-2 in their first period together against Colorado. Another quality pairing has afforded the Leafs some flexibility, be it by moving around OEL as appropriate or moving around the McCabe-Tanev pairing with different forward lines.
Against Florida, the McCabe pairing saw more time with the Matthews line overall, while against Columbus, the Rielly-Carlo duo spent more time with Matthews. It’s nice to have options.
“Hungry. Desperate. They’ve kicked our ass twice. Very offensive. Very good off the rush. One of the best defensemen in the league in Werenski, who controls a lot of the game and the pace of the game. We need to do a good job of checking him and making sure we are on the right side of him while not giving them odd-man rushes. It is a very good rush team with a lot of skill. We have to try to neutralize that.”
– Chris Tanev ahead of the Leafs vs. Blue Jackets game
In the past, I’ve criticized this group about not exacting revenge on opponents in rematches. Last season, for example, the Leafs lost 9-3 to the Sabres, and while they did beat them in the next meeting, it was an entirely mediocre 2-1 win in overtime earned in the most unconvincing fashion. Even this season, in their first time playing Ottawa since you know what, there was nothing in it (or either of their meetings after that, for the record).
It was nice to hear Chris Tanev acknowledge the reality that the Blue Jackets handed the Leafs their ass twice and then watch the Leafs bury them on the ice. They didn’t take their foot off the pedal at any point in the third period, and even though they didn’t score on a late power play when the game was already out of hand, the top unit went out and created non-stop looks. When teams get the better of you, this is exactly what a good team should do in the subsequent rematch. In a game that was so meaningful for Columbus, the revenge was even sweeter.
Tweets of the Week
Matthew Knies has LOVED playing against teams from the state of Florida in his short career so far. 😳‼️🔥
🔹 22 GP
🔹 10 goals
🔹 11 assists
🔹 21 PTS
🔹 +11#LeafsForever pic.twitter.com/QhRnb3JVjJ— Leafslatest (@Leafslatest) April 3, 2025
So far in his short career, Matthew Knies has really elevated and delivered against big-time division rivals. Florida and Tampa Bay have been huge problems since he entered the league, and Knies has regularly produced against them, including some big moments already. Even beyond the Florida game last week, he has been really good the past few weeks and has found another level ahead of the playoffs with his physicality, forechecking, and offense.
I am not sure Knies’ skating is receiving enough attention right now. Against Columbus, he raced in on a breakaway after winning a race to a chipped-out puck with three Blue Jackets around him. He’s showing some ability to separate from defenders with his skating, which is a dangerous addition to his size and skill.
Pontus Holmberg has one 5v5 goal this season in 60 games, and it was a Jordan Staal own goal
— Kevin Papetti (@KPapetti) April 1, 2025
I don’t want to knock Pontus Holmberg entirely — he has been a useful player with his forechecking and ability to play some level of center in addition to the wing — but this is an important note when putting together the playoff lineup. Last year, Holmberg played all seven playoff games for the Leafs and didn’t produce a point. So far this season, he hasn’t shot one by a goalie at five-on-five. While you don’t count on the fourth line to score, it’s important for them to have some ability to chip in offensively and provide depth offense. I’m not sure he can at this point.
With a blocked shot at 7:08 of the first period, Chris Tanev (177) has established a new Maple Leafs single season record for blocked shots, surpassing the mark set by Carl Gunnarsson (176) during the 2013-14 season.
— Leafs PR (@LeafsPR) April 5, 2025
I don’t think a blocked shots stat does Chris Tanev justice for how good of an addition he has been overall. but it’s nice to see him receive some recognition in general. He has come exactly as advertised.
Five Things I Think I’d Do
1. I think it’s pretty clear the Leafs have locked in their top two lines at this rate. While I’d still be interested to see them spread out a bit more — they tried it all of one game against Ottawa — I do appreciate that their top six is stacked with two very good lines.
The bottom two lines can and should continue to be tinkered with, though. I’d be interested in seeing Nick Robertson move back beside Max Domi, with Scott Laughton on the other side, and Calle Jarnkrok move down to play with Steven Lorentz and David Kampf, if healthy, or Pontus Holmberg. Robertson provides more offense than Jarnkrok, and Jarnkrok thrives in a checking role.
2. I actually think this Jake McCabe injury is a bit of a blessing for him and the team. He’s averaging a career-high 21:31 per night, leading all Leafs this season. That appeared to be catching up to him a bit lately as his play had quietly taken a bit of a dip, and he has really struggled on the penalty kill, in particular. There should be no rush to get him back into the lineup, even with the division race ongoing. Let him rest up and reset a little bit.
3. Without McCabe, I think the defense is what it is. They rightfully aren’t going to move Simon Benoit or Phillipe Myers into a top-four spot, so they’re paired together on the third unit, and the options are minimal. It’d be great if they could finagle IR/LTIR or an emergency recall to take a look at a veteran like Matt Benning, Dakota Mermis, or even Marshall Rifai. If two defensemen fall hurt in the playoffs, one of those three will have to play anyway. Might as well take a look now if possible.
4. I think I’d give Joseph Woll the Florida game and Anthony Stolarz the Lightning game. It gives Stolarz an extra day off after playing consecutive starts, and with the way the Panthers are preparing their nightly lineup right now, the much more difficult and telling game is on night two against the Lightning. With it seemingly trending toward Stolarz starting Game 1 of the playoffs, it’s a better test; plus, the Lightning game could more or less decide the division.
5. I think the media coverage in this market is super disappointing right now. It’s a constant onslaught of contract talk. Following Mitch Marner to the bus and asking him contract questions that he has provided the exact same answers to for months, wondering what Matthew Knies is going to get as an RFA, and oh, don’t forget that John Tavares’s price tag is going up!
How are these stories right now? The Leafs aren’t pushing to sign these deals before the playoffs begin. The only story right now is the Leafs leading the division and the playoff run ahead. This is a franchise that has won just six division titles in its entire history. Even worse, they’ve won only two in the past 87 years, and one was during an abbreviated all-Canadian division season, so I barely count that. It’s basically once in a proper full season in 87 years(!).
Between the division and the potential playoff opponents, is there not enough content available? Put away the contract discussions until the offseason; it’s just nonsense filler at this point. The fanbase doesn’t even care. When I was at the game against Florida, Marner received a huge pre-game ovation and an even bigger one when he scored. The market is enjoying them winning, and Marner plays a huge role in it. Fans recognize this and are focused on the on-ice events. They don’t need to be force-fed this nonsense in early April.
