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Toronto Maple Leafs (20-13-8, 16th in NHL) vs. Buffalo Sabres (17-17-9, 27th in NHL)

Puck drop: 7:30 p.m. EST
Arena: Air Canada Centre
Watch: Sportsnet Ontario


Game Day Notes

– The Leafs enter the game 8-1-1 in their last ten (third hottest team in the league over that span, behind Washington and Minnesota) and have scored 43 goals in their last 11 games (3.9/game). Currently holding the third divisional playoff spot via tiebreak, a win tonight would bring the Leafs back to a “true .500” record with 21 wins and 21 losses (eight in overtime or shootout).

– The Leafs have a chance to jump on a Sabres team that is playing the second game of a back-to-back, with Robin Lehner expected to play his second game in as many nights. Multiple studies in recent seasons have found that goalie performance tumbles when playing back-to-back at the same time that shots against increase in tired situations.

– After Jack Eichel missed the teams’ first meeting in Buffalo due to injury, this is the first time USNDTP buddies Eichel and Matthews will face off in the NHL. The debate as to who would’ve gone second behind McDavid in the 2015 draft had Matthews been born a few days earlier has been an overdone talking point for a while, but here are the numbers: Keeping in mind Eichel is nearly 11 months older than Matthews, Auston has 21 goals and 37 points through his first 41 career games compared to Eichel’s 13 goals and 26 points in his first 41 career games in 2015-16.

Eichel’s most common linemates last season at even strength were Evander Kane and Sam Reinhart, whereas Matthews has played primarily with Zach Hyman and one of William Nylander or Connor Brown. Seven of Eichel’s 26 points by this point of last season came via the powerplay (27%) compared to 11 of Matthews’ 37 (30%). Matthews’ shots rate of 3.4 per game outpaces Eichel’s rookie-year rate of 2.9.

This season, Matthews has the edge in most of the major categories (Eichel: .45 goals per game, .77 points per game, 4.0 shots per game | Matthews: .51 goals per game, .90 points per game, 3.5 shots per game, with nearly double the sample size due to Eichel’s injury) and is doing it all as a rookie.

– In the first meeting between the two teams, the Leafs won 2-1 – their first win in Buffalo in three-and-a-half years – after two goals from Mitch Marner gave them an early 2-0 lead and they held on thanks to a great performance from Frederik Andersen, who stopped 42 of 43 shots. The Leafs didn’t attempt a single shot in the final eight minutes. “They outplayed us the last time we played them,” said Mike Babcock today. “We got good goaltending and won 2-1.”

– That brings up the point about the Leafs’ shots against totals, which – despite their recent hot streak – remain high of late. The Leafs have been excellent at scoring first and have often built multi-goal leads in these games, suggesting score effects have a lot to do with it, but it’s of no shock to anybody at this point that the Leafs are particularly poor at shutting down games when ahead.

The Leafs have allowed 35 shots against a game and 29.5 shots for over their last ten games. Through the first half of the season, only the Islanders and Coyotes allow more even-strength shots per hour than the Leafs when in possession of a lead, and only the Coyotes allow more than the Leafs’ 70.48 shot attempts against per 60 when leading.

The Leafs move up to eighth in the league when it comes to shot attempts against (54.76) with the score tied.

“We’re trying to grow up as a team and learn how to play when you’re ahead. You like to be ahead,” said Babcock today. “Catch-up hockey is losing hockey. It’s hard to chase the game all the time, but we want to keep our foot on the gas and play. It’s more fun that way and your best defence is when you have the puck in the o-zone.”


Who’s Hot

Toronto
Mitch Marner: six assists in three-game point streak
Tyler Bozak: three goals, five assists in five-game point streak
Nazem Kadri: five goals, two assists in five-game point streak
Auston Matthews: hasn’t gone than a game without a point since November 17th; has 15 goals, 10 assists in 25 games since.
Connor Brown: five goals, two assists in his last six games

Buffalo
Jack Eichel: two goals, 10 shots on goal vs. Dallas last night
Ryan O’Reilly: one goal, six assists in last seven games


Matchup Stats

Statistics courtesy of SportingCharts.com

StatTorBuf
Points4843
Record %0.5850.5
Home Winning %0.5790.525
Away Winning %0.5710.455
Shootout Winning %0.1670.167
Goal Differential Per Game0.29-0.35
Shot Differential Per Game0.07-3.74
Hits Per Game24.523.9
PIM Per Game11.48.8
Opponent PIM Per Game11.89.7
Goals Per Game3.12.33
Even Strength Goals Per Game2.291.58
Power Play Goals Per Game0.760.72
Shots Per Game32.929.2
Shots Per Goal10.612.6
Team Shooting %0.0940.08
Power Play %0.2390.223
Goals Against Per Game2.82.67
ES Goals Against Per Game2.21.91
PP Goals Against Per Game0.540.77
Shots Against Per Game32.7832.95
Shots Against Per Goal11.6912.32
Opp. Team Shooting %0.0860.081
Penalty Kill %0.8440.744
Save %0.9140.919
Goals Against Average2.762.64
Shutouts11
Opponent Save %0.9060.92
Opponent Goals Against Average3.042.29
Opponent Shutouts22

Toronto Maple Leafs Projected Lines

Forwards

Leo Komarov – Nazem Kadri – William Nylander
van Riemsdyk  – Tyler Bozak – Mitch Marner
Zach Hyman – Auston Matthews – Connor Brown
Matt Martin – Frederik Gauthier – Nikita Soshnikov

Defencemen

Morgan Rielly – Nikita Zaitsev
Jake Gardiner – Connor Carrick
Matt Hunwick – Roman Polak

Goaltenders

Starter: Frederik Andersen (Confirmed)
Backup: Curtis McElhinney

Scratched: Josh Leivo
Injured
: Martin Marincin (lower body), Ben Smith (lower body)


Buffalo Sabres Projected Lines

Forwards

Tyler Ennis – Ryan O’Reilly – Kyle Okposo
Marcus Foligno – Jack Eichel – Sam Reinhart
Evander Kane – Zemgus Girgensons – Brian Gionta
Matt Moulson – Cal O’Reilly – Will Carrier

Defencemen

Jake McCabe – Rasmus Ristolainen
Zach Bogosian – Cody Franson
Justin Falk – Taylor Fedun

Goaltenders

Starter: Robin Lehner (Confirmed)
Backup: Anders Nilsson

Scratched: Nicolas Deslauriers
Injured: Johan Larsson (wrist/hand); Josh Gorges (hip); Dmitry Kulikov (back)


Morning Skate: Mike Babcock