The Toronto Maple Leafs built a 3-0 lead with a superb opening two periods before conceding four goals in a 13-minute span in the final game of the season series versus the Tampa Bay Lightning on Tuesday night.
Your game in ten:
1. In periods one and two, it was arguably the most impressive 40 minutes the Leafs have played against a good team on the road this season. The Lightning could not cope with the pace and wave-after-wave attack coming from the Leafs — and that’s with Auston Matthews missing up front. When in Toronto last week, Dallas Stars head coach Ken Hitchcock remarked on how tough the Leafs can be to deal with because they play fast with the puck and play fast without it. In the first 40 minutes or so, the Leafs’ forwards were doing a great job tracking back hard and laying on backpressure. When they didn’t have the puck, they were constantly closing down space and working to get it back, outmanning the Lightning all over the ice. As a result, Tampa Bay got very little accomplished in the first two periods of the game and the Leafs largely dictated the pace of play throughout the opening 40. When the Leafs are playing that way, they’re fantastic to watch.
2. The Leafs obviously struggled to execute properly when Tampa Bay dialled up the pressure in the third. They also have never been a team that shuts games down particularly well. Often, though, Frederik Andersen has been there to make the key saves when needed. Tonight, the Leafs actually didn’t give up a ton (25 shots); on the Alex Killorn game-winning goal, that has been the type of save Andersen’s managed to come up with at key times more often than not this season.
The Leafs’ 22-2-2 win percentage when leading after two periods sounds pretty good (by winning percentage, it ranks 15th in the NHL, for whatever that’s worth). But it’s worth noting the Leafs are bottom five in the league in shots against per 60 and scoring chances against per 60 when leading.
3. Also worth noting is that Andersen has given up three or more goals in 10 of his last 13 games and has posted a .902 save percentage over that span. Included in that 13-game, .902 span: His 54-save performance against Columbus, the 40-save shutout against Florida, his fantastic performance in the previous visit to Tampa Bay that earned the Leafs a greasy point on the road, and his 38-save win over Pittsburgh. Moral of the story: The Leafs give up a lot and rely on Andersen to be not just good – they need him to be excellent.
4. In regards to the Lightning vs. Bruins question as far as the preferred round-one opponent: The Bruins are the best in the league at suppressing shots and scoring chances when carrying the lead. The Lightning are only fractionally better than the Leafs at this, currently sitting just outside the bottom five in the NHL. The Leafs are in a position where their first-round opponent is between a version of themselves in Tampa — only more experienced, with a better defense core — or a bit of a heavier team in Boston that can really control games territorially and shut games down defensively. The interesting thing is that the Leafs have had an easier time with Boston this season, although playoff hockey is a different animal. Ultimately, it’s a pick-your-poison situation against two of the top three teams in the league. The Leafs have proven they can play with either of these teams, though.
5. A bit of an interesting stat here while we’re on the topic: The Leafs went 3-1-0 against the Bruins this season and currently sit 6-9-3 against the rest of the current playoff teams in the East.
6. A good lesson for William Nylander in the third period. You can play a pretty good game for two periods, but especially against good teams, you can very quickly spoil 40 minutes of good work if you don’t knuckle down in your battles or if you make mental errors while attempting to close out the game. Ron Hainsey lost his stick and got beat off of the faceoff on the game-winning goal by Killorn, but Nylander made that set-up play too easy for Anthony Cirelli to make in front of the net. You could also see Nylander briefly give thought to getting back into the play on the Ryan McDonagh goal but peeled to the bench for the change instead, which was obviously the wrong decision.
7. Couldn’t help but feel this would’ve been a tie game at 4-4 if it was Auston Matthews in his usual spot receiving that seam pass from Nylander on the late power play and not Josh Leivo.
8. Connor Brown played a first 20 minutes worthy of a spot on the score sheet. His strip of Victor Hedman led to the Leafs’ first good scoring chance of the game (for Tyler BozaK), and another good stick lift extended the play leading to JVR’s 1-0 goal on the dominant shift preceding the Leafs’ 6-on-5 goal (nice puck movement there by the Dermott – Carrick pairing and of course Mitch Marner, as well). The offense has really dried up for Brown of late, but Babcock is always going to have lots of time for him and JVR and Bozak unquestionably benefit from his work ethic and attention to detail. Another small example in the first period illustrating how detailed and hard-working Brown is away from the puck were these little pick plays in the neutral zone:
That’s the interference-within-the-rules stuff that Babcock’s teams are known for. Brown always does a good job of buying his defensemen time and applying some molasses in the neutral zone when he’s tracking back.
Zero goals and two points in his last 13 has to be weighing on him, though.
9. We talked about Ron Hainsey’s underlying numbers declining of late in the last review; it’s also worth noting the Rielly – Hainsey pairing has been outscored 8-4 and out-possessed to the tune of a 46 CF% in the month of March. That is a pretty small sample (seven games), but it is worth noting that the pairing was breaking even in those tough assignments prior to this recent stretch (50.2% CF, 50.7% GF). Neither looked particularly good when trying to settle this game down in the third. The Leafs are going to need this pair to kick it into high gear soon knowing the primary assignment they’re set to draw in the first round of the playoffs – either Miller – Stamkos – Kucherov, or Pastrnak – Bergeron – Marchand.
10. With two more tonight, James van Riemsdyk has moved into 11th in NHL goal scoring, one behind Connor McDavid and one ahead of John Tavares and Taylor Hall. He’s now 15th in the NHL in goal scoring since arriving in Toronto (2012-13). The cheapest contract above him that’s inked beyond 2018-19 is Brad Marchand’s $6.125 million (which is an absolute steal).
Game In Six
Game Flow: 5v5 Shot Attempts
