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The Maple Leafs broke out offensively at five-on-five, running up a 4-0 lead through 40 minutes and then holding on for dear life late in the third period en route to a 5-3 victory in Tampa.

Your game in 10:

1.   This was not a must-win — there is no such thing in game #23 of 82 — but it was a “really should win” type of scenario for the Leafs. The Leafs were well rested, and Auston Matthews and Matthew Knies were back in the lineup. The Lightning were without Nikita Kucherov (as well as noted Leaf killer Nick Paul) and in a back-to-back after they rode their top forwards hard the day before on the road (Kucherov missed a full period in Nashville, and Cirelli also missed time, so Point, Guentzel, and Hagel played over 22 minutes each. All three of those players played over 25 minutes tonight, including nearly 29 — 29! — for Hagel).

It wasn’t always totally convincing or comfortable, but the Leafs took care of business with an overdue explosion of five-on-five offense.

2.    It might get lost in the shuffle when you look at the scoreline and see a 5-3 final, but Joseph Woll was really good when it mattered in this game, allowing the Leafs to build their big cushion.

He made a tough save look easy on a one-timer from the slot early in the game while the Leafs started slowly (no shots on goal in the first seven minutes), made a big breakaway save late in the opening frame to keep it 1-0 Leafs at the first intermission (a Michael Eyssimont breakaway after a brutal OEL turnover at the offensive zone blue line), and made a couple of big saves on odd-man rushes for Tampa (one was a nice pad save on Anthony Cirelli).

Woll was also sharp — four saves, a few of which came from shots in tight — on the Leafs’ PK following the too-many-men penalty in the second period. He made 38 saves in all and looked unbeatable for two and a half periods, and it’s not like the Leafs gave Tampa practically nothing.

If the Leafs received even an ordinary goalie performance, this could have been a much different game.

3.   On the Leafs’ first shot on goal of the game, the returning Matthew Knies made it 1-0.

The goal started off a nice entry play where Chris Tanev handed it off to the wall to William Nylander, who spun off his check into the middle of the high slot before finding Auston Matthews, who was cycling back up high. After leading the entry and skating in deep, Tanev worked his way back up to the point, where he took a Matthews pass for a one-timer into a good spot for Knies to tip it home in front.

It was nice to see the Leafs score off some dynamic five-man movement inside the offensive zone at five-on-five, creating space and a shooting lane for an open tip. It’s what the skilled lines on this Leafs team have been very adept at for years, but we haven’t seen quite the same amount of it this season.

After the loss in Florida, Marner called out the following: “We’ve got to get around the net more and tip some more pucks for our D. They did a good job getting pucks through; we just weren’t there enough.” Knies’ return was just what the doctor ordered in this respect.

4.   The 2-0 Leafs goal came off hard work on the wall by all three Leafs forwards, Mitch Marner, John Tavares, and Pontus Holmberg, after a nice job getting the breakout started by Jake McCabe.

It remains to be seen if Holmberg can finish enough plays around the net to fill this kind of role on a scoring line full-time — the signs again weren’t positive on that front tonight — but he is definitely much better as a winger hounding pucks on the forecheck than he is as a centerman. He did a great job here of initially sticking with the play and harassing Brayden Point to create a 50-50 puck battle on the wall, then supporting the puck to bump it back down to Marner, who emerged with the puck from the wall battle.

From there, Chris Tanev placed his shot nicely — above the pad, below the glove, off the bar, and in — for his first as a Maple Leaf and first in 58 games (if we include last year’s playoffs).

5.   Just 30 seconds later, the Leafs were up 3-0 courtesy of another majorly overdue goal-scorer.

Firstly, a shoutout to Simon Benoit for rag-dolling Michael Eysimmont and then starting the breakout before this goal. Benoit has been really physical and really solid, for my money, since returning from his healthy scratch. It’s the clearly identifiable pattern with Benoit since he arrived in Toronto — he never hangs his head; he just digs in, competes even harder, and tries to get better. With McCabe leaving the game, Benoit stepped up with over 22 minutes TOI tonight (nine hits, one assist).

Secondly, in the last few seasons, including the playoff series in which the Leafs slayed the dragon, Andrei Vasilevskiy has not just been a beatable goaltender against Toronto but a genuinely bad one. Since the start of 2022-23, he’s gone 4-8 with a .884 save percentage vs. the Leafs.

That’s not to take anything away from Nick Robertson, who has deserved more than two goals this season and took a nice shot here for his first goal since Oct. 22, but Vasilevskiy played this one poorly.

Fraser Minten picked up his third point in four games on this goal, making a nice little move through the neutral zone to gain the line before handing it off to Robertson and engaging with the defenseman in front to create space. Minten’s 11:31 isn’t a ton of ice time, but it was the most of any bottom-six Leafs forward tonight.

6.   The Leafs generated eight scoring chances off of cycle plays at 5v5 in the first 40 minutes, and one of them led to the 4-0 (should’ve been) put-away goal late in the second period. After an offensive-zone draw win by John Tavares, the Leafs cycled it high before Mitch Marner threw a puck into a crowd, where Tavares made a great play on it with a no-look backhander with his back to the goal, catching Vasilevskiy by surprise at the near post.

The Lightning were without Kucherov and in a back-to-back, so it’s not a totally fair judgement of the matchup game, but it’s notable that Tavares-Marner took on most of the Point-Guentzel matchup and scored twice (with Hedman also on the ice for those goals) while controlling the underlying numbers, particularly before the Lightning’s push from 4-0 down in the third.

With a Knies – Matthews – Nylander / Holmberg – Tavares – Marner top six, it’s less clear who takes on those kinds of marquee head-to-head matchups compared to when Matthews plays with Marner. Berube appears confident enough to keep rolling with Tavares-Marner for the time being, and the results are on their side so far.

The underlying numbers aren’t as friendly to them — 44.6% CF, although they’re breaking even in xG and scoring chances — but Tavares-Marner is now 6-1 in goals at 5v5 this season while taking on the tough matchups each night. Playoffs (depending on the opponent) might be a different story, but if they remain together for extended periods this season and Berube sticks with them inside top matchups, it’ll be intriguing to see what Knies-Matthews-Nylander can accomplish inside some softer matchups potentially, as we think about the room to grow in the Leafs’ five-on-five offense.

7.   The Leafs went down to five defensemen after losing one-half of their shutdown pair (and a top PK option) when Jake McCabe took a puck to the head in front of his own net late in the second period. As scary as it looked, thankfully, it sounds like McCabe will be fine.

That didn’t help the team’s cause in the third period as they sat back, didn’t stay aggressive enough up the ice/defending the line, and looked to run out the clock up four, but neither did a series of bad bounces in the final 10 minutes and a brutal officiating decision.

The 4-1 goal came off a strange bounce on a play up the wall by OEL; the puck hit Connor Dewar in the chest and bounced out for Darren Raddysh to set up an Eyssimont one-timer goal. It was a flukey bounce, but it is noteworthy that one of five lost draws (22%) for Dewar preceded this goal, and shot attempts were 5-1 Tampa in the fourth line’s limited minutes.

8.   This Grebekin – Dewar – A. Nylander lineup decision was a strange one for me. The line doesn’t make any sense on paper, and it didn’t make any sense on the ice. Steeves – Dewar – Lorentz wasn’t anything special, but it was generally winning its minutes in a limited sample, and Lorentz gave the line the insulation of a decent faceoff taker (56% so far this season).

There is the waivers consideration (Steeves was exempt as an emergency recall), but it is also inevitable that A. Nylander will be waived off the roster, as the Leafs can’t stash him all season. It might be a behind-the-scenes timing issue in terms of when Leafs brass think they can waive Nylander with the best chance of a clearance; clearly, they want to keep him, as both Nylanders want Alex to remain here, and Alex originally passed up NHL offers in the summer to take an AHL deal in Toronto.

I have a really hard time picturing Berube writing this combination down while thinking, “Nice looking fourth line!” as it had to be more of a roster decision by management forcing him into this spot (notably, Steeves was on L4 over Nylander in Friday’s practice). It seemed as though he just tossed A. Nylander on a non-sensical L4 and barely played him (or Nikita Grebenkin, who played less than eight minutes) while trying to put together a third line that could work.

9.   After a tough bounce off of Conor Timmins‘ skate during Tampa’s early goalie pull made it 4-2, the 4-3 power-play goal (scored at 6-on-4) came off an egregiously bad game-management call by the officials.

It looked like the ref was going to take both players, which would’ve been a little unfair to the Leafs but a case of “whatever,” given the circumstances. Oliver Ekman-Larsson receiving the lone penalty was asinine.

The initial slash by Guentzel to the back of OEL’s leg started the whole sequence. OEL cross-checked Guentzel after the whistle in retaliation, but it wasn’t like OEL was the last to retaliate in the ensuing scrum. Anthony Cirelli immediately responded by cross-checking OEL harder than OEL cross-checked Guentzel. Maybe you could justify sending both OEL and Cirelli, but to pick out only OEL and send TB to the power play was beyond baffling.

10.   Not all empty netters are created equal. The walls were starting to close in on the Leafs at 4-3, and Cam Atkinson nearly tied it on yet another back-post play by the Lightning. William Nylander calmly settled a puck down inside his own blue line and turned up ice, where a bunch of Lightning players were between him and the net. He perfectly airmailed it over their heads into the middle of the empty net to calm the waters and ice the game. Don’t ask how on this occasion, but the Leafs are now 12-0 when leading after two periods.

Coming off the Panthers’ loss, the Leafs had played six games this season with zero five-on-five goals through 22 games—stunningly, that is one shy of the number of 5v5 shutouts the team recorded over all 82 games last season (7). Therefore, the most encouraging aspect of tonight is that, with Matthews and Knies back, the Leafs scored all four non-empty netters at five-on-five and got contributions from three separate lines.

Game Flow: 5v5 Shot Attempts

Heat Map: 5v5 Shot Attempts

Game Highlights w/ Joe Bowen & Jim Ralph

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