The Maple Leafs hit the halfway mark of the 2024-25 regular season in first place in the Atlantic Division with a strong 26-13-2 record. It’s the first time they’ve led their division halfway through a full, regularly scheduled NHL season since before the 2004-05 lockout.
While the point pace is technically only four higher than last season, tracking for more points than 2023-24 when the team’s best player has played only 65% of the games — and maybe looked right in 10% of them — is a noteworthy achievement. For most of November, the Leafs were missing half of their forward group.
One of the reasons the Leafs have been able to survive those absences is the improved play on defense, led by the addition of Chris Tanev, and the improvement in net, where the gap between the goaltending they’ve received from Anthony Stolarz and Joseph Woll in the first half of this season is galaxies ahead of what Ilya Samsonov gave the team in the first half of last season.
Amidst all the positives, there is lots of room for improvement. In terms of five-on-five play, they are 24th in shot share, and it bumps up to 19th in fenwick, which doesn’t include blocked shots. When games are tied, the Leafs are getting tilted; they rank 30th in shot share. However, in terms of expected goals in all five-on-five situations, they are slightly above water (but still rank just 19th) and are seventh in the league in five-on-five goal differential.
When Auston Matthews has been in the lineup, they have trended more towards a top-10 possession team — the impact of an elite 1C is that significant — so there’s reason to believe that if they can get healthy, the five-on-five numbers should start to improve. That would be a scary proposition for the competition, considering the Leafs already get results thanks to their top talent alone.
On top of the elite goaltending the Leafs have received — they are fourth in five-on-five save percentage — William Nylander is tied for the second-most goals in the league and Mitch Marner is fourth in the league in points. With Matthews out, both have carried the mail (John Tavares also has a point per game and is pacing for close to 40 goals) to push the offense and team through all of the adversity.
With that said, the unofficial halfway point makes for a good time to take stock of the rest of the division.
Toronto Maple Leafs
| 2024-25 Maple Leafs | |
|---|---|
| Record | 26-13-2 |
| Points percentage | .659 |
| Goals per game | 3.15 (12th) |
| Goals against per game | 2.76 (8th) |
| Power play | 20.5 (18th) |
| Penalty Kill | 82.7 (8th) |
| 5v5 CF% | 48.44 (24th) |
| 5v5 xGF% | 50.04 (19th) |
| Goal differential | +16 |
It’s easy to flag the issues when we scrutinize them daily, and we all know the playoff history. But to sit in first place without a proper Matthews, by and large, is extremely impressive, no matter which way you slice it.
The team leads the division, and it feels like they haven’t even come close to playing their best, other than in the net (which is a great equalizer, to be fair). They still may need to add a quality defenseman — and a right-handed center would be the cherry on top — but this is a really good team that’s close, playoff demons aside.
Florida Panthers
| 2024-25 Panthers | |
|---|---|
| Record | 24-14–2 |
| Points percentage | .625 |
| Goals per game | 3.3 (8th) |
| Goals against per game | 3.1 (18th) |
| Power play | 25 (6th) |
| Penalty Kill | 80.8 (14th) |
| 5v5 CF% | 54.22 (2nd) |
| 5v5 xGF% | 53.83 (5th) |
| Goal differential | +11 |
The Panthers understandably really miss Brandon Montour and, to a lesser extent, Oliver Ekman-Larsson, so it’s pretty clear they will need to add a quality defenseman. Dmitry Kulikov is currently fourth among their defensemen in time on ice per game; that won’t cut it in the playoffs.
The rest of the team is still full marks, and nobody will want to play the Panthers in the postseason. They have gone to the Cup two years in a row and won it once, so the path goes through them until someone rips it away.
We’ll see who Bill Zito adds on defense. It’s a notable hole. When Florida won the Cup last season, they were tied for first in goals against per game. Look where they are now (18th).
Also noteworthy on this point: Sergei Bobrovsky currently has an .899 save percentage and turns 37 this year.
Tampa Bay Lightning
| 2024-25 Lightning | |
|---|---|
| Record | 20-15-2 |
| Points percentage | .568 |
| Goals per game | 3.7 (2nd) |
| Goals against per game | 2.81 (11th) |
| Power play | 26.4 (3rd) |
| Penalty Kill | 82.2 (11th) |
| 5v5 CF% | 50.63 (11th) |
| 5v5 xGF% | 51.15 (11th) |
| Goal differential | +32 |
The Lightning have some great numbers right now, and a lot of it is buoyed by a massive December in which Brayden Point and Nikita Kucherov each averaged two points per game, and Jake Guentzel scored a goal per game. As good as those players are, this is unsustainable.
The Lightning lead the entire league in five-on-five PDO this season. While they are a good and talented team, a lot of bounces have gone their way to this point, and they are still just in third in the Atlantic.
The top of Tampa’s lineup is full marks — we can see it in their power play and goals per game — but their forward group really falls off after the top six. Are they going to ride it out with young, inexperienced players like Conor Geekie and Gage Goncalves, hoping they improve as the season goes along, or will they buy veteran reinforcements?
Boston Bruins
| 2024-25 Bruins | |
|---|---|
| Record | 20-17-5 |
| Points percentage | .536 |
| Goals per game | 2.64 (27th) |
| Goals against per game | 3.12 (19th) |
| Power play | 12.6 (31st) |
| Penalty Kill | 76.2 (25th) |
| 5v5 CF% | 49.60 (15th) |
| 5v5 xGF% | 51.36 (10th) |
| Goal differential | -20 |
After a drawn-out contractual holdout from Jeremy Swayman, he finally signed for big money and, since then, has put up a pedestrian .891 save percentage. The Bruins have a deep defense, but they have sorely missed Hampus Lindholm, who has played just 17 games this season and is clearly their second-best defenseman.
Pavel Zacha is third among Boston’s forwards in points with just 21 in 41. That pretty well sums it up. If Swayman isn’t excellent, and their defense isn’t locking things down without Lindholm, they aren’t outscoring any issues and are where they are now: in a playoff spot but full of red flags.
Ottawa Senators
| 2024-25 Senators | |
|---|---|
| Record | 19-17-2 |
| Points percentage | .526 |
| Goals per game | 2.95 (T19th) |
| Goals against per game | 3.43 (28th) |
| Power play | 24.2 (7th) |
| Penalty Kill | 77.8 (21st) |
| 5v5 CF% | 51.28 (10th) |
| 5v5 xGF% | 50.51 (15th) |
| Goal differential | +1 |
The Senators have firepower, and now they finally have goaltending, too. Ullmark is 12-7-2 with a .915 save percentage, but the problem is he’s week-to-week right now with a back injury. Is it going to sink their season? They are 1-4 since Ullmark went down and don’t have another goalie with a save percentage higher than .885.
The Sens have talent and depth up front, plus some quality defensemen, but they won’t survive if Ullmark is out for weeks on end, to say nothing of if he struggles to regain his form when he’s back.
Montreal Canadiens
| 2024-25 Canadiens | |
|---|---|
| Record | 18-18-3 |
| Points percentage | .500 |
| Goals per game | 2.95 (T19th) |
| Goals against per game | 3.36 (26th) |
| Power play | 21.2 (17th) |
| Penalty Kill | 82.4 (10th) |
| 5v5 CF% | 47.64 (28th) |
| 5v5 xGF% | 46.69 (27th) |
| Goal differential | -15 |
The Habs have started to trend up lately. With Patrik Laine in the lineup, they are 9-4-0, including some impressive wins against the Panthers and Lightning. They are legitimately in the wildcard race, and it will be interesting to monitor their approach to the trade deadline.
Kent Hughes could sell several useful veterans or look to buy and make the playoffs for the first time in a few years. Jake Evans, for example, is enjoying a great season and anchoring a good third line. The Habs may lack some quality, but they boast legitimate depth, making them a plucky opponent.
Detroit Red Wings
| 2024-25 Red Wings | |
|---|---|
| Record | 17-18-4 |
| Points percentage | .487 |
| Goals per game | 2.72 (25th) |
| Goals against per game | 3.23 (25th) |
| Power play | 26.3 (4th) |
| Penalty Kill | 69.8 (31st) |
| 5v5 CF% | 46.27 (29th) |
| 5v5 xGF% | 45.40 (29th) |
| Goal differential | -19 |
The Red Wings are riding a bit of a new coach bump right now — currently on a four-game winning streak — but they were bound to bounce back to some degree anyway. While the team isn’t good, they aren’t bad enough to be challenging for a top-five pick. There is not much else to say here; they would need a crazy run to make the playoffs.
Buffalo Sabres
| 2024-25 Sabres | |
|---|---|
| Record | 14-21-5 |
| Points percentage | .413 |
| Goals per game | 3.03 (15th) |
| Goals against per game | 3.4 (27th) |
| Power play | 17.9 (23rd) |
| Penalty Kill | 78.2 (20th) |
| 5v5 CF% | 50.46 (13th) |
| 5v5 xGF% | 47.90 (26th) |
| Goal differential | -15 |
No real notes. They showed some promise early on, but Rasmus Dahlin got hurt, and they went on a 13-game losing streak. That’s curtains.
***
As has always been the case, the gap between the second vs. third-place first-round matchup compared to a potential wildcard opponent is significant. And for the first time in this era, the Leafs have a real chance to win the Atlantic Division.
You can see the upside and room for improvement, and they have the ability to grow as they trend towards full health. Regardless of who is in the lineup on any given night, the schedule situation (back-to-back, three-in-four, etc.), and the opponent, the Leafs are finding ways to pile up points. But you’d like to see them clean up some aspects of their five-on-five play now that they are getting healthy.
