The 4 Nations break is officially here, giving us the time to dig deeper into specific Leafs-related storylines over the next few weeks.

For now, we’ll jump into an extended notes edition of the notebook that will cover a multitude of Leafs topics as we begin the break.

Notes

Bobby McMann, Maple Leafs vs. Canadiens
Photo: David Kirouac-USA TODAY Sports

–  We can break up the season through different segments as we see fit – every 10 games, by month, a hot or a cold streak – but I like to zoom out and look at the chunks between breaks in the schedule. It is particularly easy to do it this way this season with the 4 Nations break currently underway; we can look at the stretch between the Christmas break and this two-week layoff.

The Leafs played 20 games in this period, finishing 12-8-0 for a .600 points percentage that ranked them tied for ninth in the NHL. They were 11th in goals per game, with a nice bump in scoring once Auston Matthews returned to health, but they dropped to 19th in goals against without Anthony Stolarz while battling some ups and downs from their team defense.

–  The biggest positive over this stretch is arguably the Leafs’ power play. It was tied for fifth in the league over the past month and a half, as each team played around 20 games, roughly a quarter of a season. Two players tied for the team lead in power-play goals with three: John Tavares and Bobby McMann, who is proving effective in the bumper spot, just as he did with the Toronto Marlies.

The five-forward unit is dangerous, and the Leafs’ second unit with Oliver Ekman-Larsson and Morgan Rielly is showing real signs of life – OEL has a PP goal, McMann scored a PP game-winner off an OEL shot, OEL set up a Nick Robertson goal, and Rielly set up a McMann goal, all on the second unit in this period.

To some extent, the power play was always bound to improve, but they seem to be buying into a more straightforward approach of funneling shots to the net with two players in front, with all of William Nylander, Mitch Marner, and Matthews up top on the power play.

–  On the flip side, the penalty kill was tied for 24th in the period referenced. Before the Christmas break, they were eighth in the league. Personnel and deployment-wise, there aren’t too many differences. Conor Timmins was primarily the second unit killer with Simon Benoit, but in this run, it has been Philippe Myers more often in that spot.

Up front, Steven Lorentz was seeing regular time on the unit, averaging over a minute and a half per game before Christmas. Since Christmas, it has been just 33 seconds per game for Lorentz shorthanded. Pontus Holmberg is roughly the same (1:40 per game vs. 30 seconds per game).

Going through some of the tape before and after the PK slippage, one thing that stands out is that there is less opportunity to change because they are getting hemmed in more. When the Leafs’ PK is at its best, it runs quick, 30 (or even 20)-second shifts of all-out pressuring, disrupting the play, turning pucks over, clearing them, and getting off the ice. They were eighth in expected goals against per 60 minutes in the 35 games leading up to Christmas. Since then? 27th.

The PK is getting opened up at the seams far too regularly. The latest example was Brock Boeser scoring on a wide-open shot right in the slot after Matthew Knies traveled from the corner of the zone diagonally up to the blue line.

Multiple 5v3 goals against and a 4v3 goal before then against Ottawa don’t help the numbers, either.

–  Since Christmas, the Leafs’ top six forwards have scored 47 goals. Every other forward has combined for eight goals, one of which was an empty netter by David Kampf. Four regulars – Max Domi, Max Pacioretty, Pontus Holmberg, and Connor Dewar – haven’t scored. Neither has Ryan Reaves, who played in nine of the 20 games.

–  Oliver Ekman-Larsson hit a rut earlier in the season. At one point, he played in the 18-minute range in three of four games coming out of Christmas. In the 14 games since then (not including his five-minute appearance against the Oilers due to injury), he has played under 20 minutes just once; it was the game in Seattle, which was a snoozefest that was all but over after the first period. Even setting the parameters at 20 minutes undersells his ice time, as his next lowest TOI total over the 14 games was 21:38.

OEL has eight points in those 14 appearances and has played the right side for a large chunk of the time. His partnership with Rielly is now up in goal differential, and the pair is beginning to settle in. In the last 14 games, OEL is 11-4 in 5v5 goals (3-0 with Rielly) and has been tilting the ice individually, with 56 percent of the shot attempts and 55 percent of the expected goals. He has been really, really good in this run. Some kudos are deserved.

–   It had been a while since we’d seen a massive Jake McCabe hit – until he steamrolled Kevin Rooney of the Calgary Flames. Part of it is understandable, as he has missed time with two presumed head injuries. He handled Ryan Lomberg challenging him really well, too – not exactly turtling but avoiding an unnecessary fight.

McCabe looks far more comfortable back on the left with Chris Tanev, and while he can play the right side, this is really where the team wants him. In the last playoffs, we talked quite a bit about McCabe’s struggles moving the puck cleanly up ice on the right side while paired with Benoit, even though the two did grind well defensively. It’s a big swing to not only move McCabe back to the left but also pair him with Tanev.

–  Auston Matthews is entering the 4 Nations tournament on a six-game goal-less run; Alec went through it after the Canucks game and noted he’s had several five-game droughts over the years, but he hasn’t experienced a six-gamer since the Mike Babcock era in 2018-19. Matthews has seven points and 27 shots on net in that time, so I don’t want to blow it out of proportion, but notably, he’s on pace for his lowest goals-per-game output since his rookie season and lowest points and shots-per-game outputs since 2018-19.

Understandably, a significant reason why is his health situation this season, but he has been back and healthy since the start of 2025 and is now participating in the 4 Nations tournament. In those 16 games since returning, Matthews has recorded 22 points and is up 16-11 in five-on-five goals, so the offense has been there overall, although he’s giving up a reasonable amount defensively the other way (nearly .7 goals against per game).

If we zoom out over the 16-game stretch, in how many of those games has Matthews been truly dominant and the best player on the ice? His two-goal effort against New Jersey comes to mind, and he was excellent in wins against Tampa Bay and Philadelphia. That’s about it, though. He’s the highest-paid player in the league (by cap hit) this season – the bar here is very high, as it should be.

Quotes

Max Domi, Maple Leafs vs. Bruins
Photo: Bob DeChiara-USA TODAY Sports

“I don’t know. It is two games or not even a full two games.

For me, a lot of it is a guy getting in on the forecheck, getting to the net, and just being that kind of rock. They all want the puck a lot. It is a lot.

Hey, it wasn’t a big sample size.”

–  Craig Berube on why the Nylander-Tavares-Marner didn’t click

On paper, who did Berube think would forecheck heading into this experiment? This played out precisely as expected, and I’m not sure it was worth trying. Assembling this Nylander-Tavares-Marner line read to me like they were hesitant to tell one of the stars to play on the third line with sub-optimal linemates while they tried to see if Domi on a line with Matthews would rekindle some of the magic from last season.

“I look at our team, and as we evaluate it over the course of the coming weeks, we have to find a way to do the hard, unsexy things longer. Those things don’t require skill. There are some things in our sport, especially at this time of the year, that are not related to skill but help you win.”

–  Brad Treliving in May

I have been thinking about this quote a lot lately, especially when it comes to Max Domi, who is now mired in his second 20+ game goalless drought of the season through 47 games.

We can blame some of the scoring issues on playing through an injury at one point and on playing with poor linemates at various times throughout the season, but a lot of it is his own doing. For a player that talented to twice go this long without scoring a goal – and to score a total of 12 goals in 127 games as a Leaf so far – it’s often because he just won’t do the “hard, unsexy things.”

In particular, Domi refuses to go to the dirty areas and is content to hang around the perimeter, looking to saucer passes through multiple layers of defenders. Domi has been credited with 14 high-danger shots for the entire season, and his expected goals on the year are 5.77. It’s not bad luck. Dewar has been credited with one fewer higher danger shot and has played 18 fewer games than Domi this season. All of Holmberg, Pacioretty, and even Lorentz have been credited with more. 

These are far less talented players getting inside more than Domi, and Pacioretty and Lorentz have also scored more goals than Domi while making less than Domi’s $3.75 million salary combined.

Toughness isn’t only about fighting or getting mad after taking a hit once in a while. It’s about going to the hard areas of the ice regularly and winning battles. I couldn’t tell you the last time Domi drove the net hard, had a great forechecking shift or did anything resembling hard, unsexy hockey.

With the way Domi is playing on a nightly basis (i.e., a complete lack of desperation and unwillingness to go anywhere even remotely difficult on the ice), you would really have no idea he’s in a massive goalless drought and is producing well under expectations – as if he is completely unaware of how much he has undelivered this season.

Domi just received an unearned opportunity on the top line with Matthews and Knies and couldn’t even make it last for three full games. He recorded just two shots on net (one was on the power play) and zero five-on-five points (he picked up a secondary power-play assist against Seattle). 

“There’s lots of times where I try to be more defensive because that’s good for the team. That’s not always the way that it shakes out. Your intentions don’t always come out the right way. And I think at times, for me in particular, you just gotta go out and f—ing play and be confident and be aggressive and lean into your skill set and do what makes you who you are.”

–  Morgan Rielly on his game this season and balancing defense vs. offense

Morgan Rielly recorded four points in four games on this past road trip (a point in each game), and it was his best hockey of the season so far – hopefully, a sign of things to come. The big difference is how active he’s been in the offensive zone rather than only relying on joining the rush. 

We flagged it last week, but there were a lot of sequences in which Rielly was receiving the puck at the point and not moving his feet at all; he’d stand still and look for opportunities to open up rather than moving his feet and creating them himself. We are now seeing him push down more in the offensive zone and essentially join the cycle as a fourth forward within the zone rather than remaining stagnant on the blue line.

On his goal against Vancouver, Rielly was shooting below the top of the circles, where he is dangerous. All five of his even-strength goals this season have been scored from shots he has taken below the top of the circle (he has one power-play goal from a point shot where Knies provided a great screen in front). If he gets to those spots, he is dangerous and owns a good snapper, including sniping Connor Hellebuyck cleanly 1v1 earlier this season. He doesn’t possess the booming point shot to be dangerous from distance.

 

Tweets of the Week

Craig Berube, William Nylander, Maple Leafs bench
Photo: Dan Hamilton/USA Today Sports

The Leafs are still clearly excellent off the rush when they do create those opportunities, but they are generating much less off the rush, with the trade-off of not giving as much off the rush the other way.

Over the years, there were many times when top opponents would just sit back and counterattack the Leafs off the rush. It’s more boring to dump the puck in, but it comes with far less risk.

If we count the game against Vancouver (with the power-play goal just after the penalty expired), the Leafs have gone nine games without a five-on-five goal this season through 55 games (they had seven over 82 games last season), but ultimately, they have scored 108 goals at five-on-five and given up just 91. Only three teams have conceded fewer than 91 goals at five-on-five, and the Leafs’ five-on-five goal share ranks sixth in the league.

It’s not as fun, but the Leafs are getting results, and it has largely been worth undertaking the process so far. If anything, their special teams and overall lack of depth have let them down offensively.

Some of the Matthews/Marner splits stats are laced with nuance – splitting them apart generally leads to different responsibilities and thus better offensive results – but the power play is really interesting and more cut and dry. It can regularly look like there are too many mouths to feed, and overpassing sets in as they seek the perfect shot rather than funneling pucks to the net with traffic and winning battles there. It’s usually a lot more direct when one of the stars is out.

The power play has been better since they started running five forwards and the players are all in more natural spots rather than forcing someone to play down low. The only alternative at this point is to split the units altogether.

It has been a Jekyll and Hyde start to 2025 for the Leafs, and the question is why.

One part of it is due to injury – McCabe, Tavares, Knies, and Matthews have all missed time here and there. The second part is the further exposure of the team’s lack of depth.

The defense really struggled without McCabe, and anytime the Leafs were missing top-six forwards, their other options couldn’t elevate and produce (nor could they play secondary roles and produce).

At the same time, they still tracked as a top-10 team overall. It is frustrating at points, but it never really falls apart. We can see a path where adding even a few solid NHLers on offense and defense — plus getting Calle Jarnkrok back — would make a big difference.

Five Things I Think I’d Do

Mitch Marner, John Tavares, Maple Leafs vs. Kraken
Photo: Stephen Brashear/USA Today Spors

1.    I think the Leafs had the right idea by trying Max Domi out on the first line, presumably in an effort to spread out the scoring, but their plan beyond the top line didn’t make much sense.

As we’ve been writing for most of the season, they simply do not have the depth to run it this way. The first line is overall worse by subbing out Mitch Marner for Domi, and I don’t think anyone would seriously argue otherwise. They can live with it if they make the other lines better, but which line was better?

The Nylander-Tavares-Marner line was actually worse than if Bobby McMann was on it as a forechecker, also allowing William Nylander to play on his proper wing, where he is clearly better. The third line was McMann-Holmberg-Robertson, which is maybe not worse than other iterations, but it’s certainly not better. What was the payoff?

They would either need to swap one of Marner or Nylander with McMann on that third line or shake it up in pairs with something like McMann-Holmberg-Nylander and Robertson-Tavares-Marner for it to resemble a three-line attack that makes any sense. Two forwards don’t really belong in that equation, though, and hopefully, the return of Jarnkrok fills at least one of those spots.

2.    I think the big thing to keep in mind is whether the Leafs can make three lines formidable enough to make contenders think twice about loading up their own lines. When the Leafs played the Oilers, their only line that fared well territorially was the Matthews-Marner line.

The idea of Matthews matching up against a McDavid-Draisaitl combo, for example, with Domi on his right wing just so that Nylander can play with a Holmberg and Marner with a Robertson (again, just as examples) is not going to cut it. The top-end teams will happily run out their elite players versus a watered-down top line, and the Leafs’ other lines aren’t good enough to make up the difference.

The Leafs can do whatever they want with the lineup against the Seattle Krakens of the league, but the bar is set at beating the elite teams, and it’s not a deep enough group to take the lineup where they’d want it to go. They currently own a very good top six on paper when they load it up. It is their strength. The problem is that it has been their strength before when they repeatedly fell short in the playoffs.

3.    I think the defense has started to settle in again, with the Jake McCabe–Chris Tanev reunion and the Morgan Rielly–Oliver Ekman-Larsson pairing starting to look better. Ideally, they would have an experienced right-handed NHL defenseman to pair with Rielly, thereby pushing OEL to start games on the third pairing and move up according to the situation, but the top four has been solid lately, which has been good to see.

4.    I think this is a perfect time to get Anthony Stolarz back for a timeshare with Joseph Woll. Once the Leafs return from the break, they will play 19 games in 37 days. They should be splitting starts more or less down the middle. For goalie purposes, there is still plenty of time for this battle to play out, so split the starts and let it take its course. There’s no need to waste time arguing about who will start the first playoff game or whatever right now.

5.   Enjoy the 4 Nations tournament, everyone. I hope it’s a good learning experience for the Leafs’ three stars as they play with champions in an elite tournament. 

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