Bad weekend, or bad omen? That’s the big question for the Maple Leafs right now.

Entering the weekend fresh off five wins in their past six games, the Leafs were swept in a back-to-back at home.

The first loss came against an undermanned Boston team missing its top center and best defenseman, in a game where the Leafs were simply outworked and outplayed. 

The second loss came at the hands of a Carolina team that was missing half its defense but thoroughly dismantled the Leafs. The score indicated a one-goal game, but the flow of the play was entirely one-sided. Carolina finally took the lead with just under eight minutes left, and yet the Leafs never recorded a shot on net afterward. Even while trailing, the Leafs couldn’t get out of their zone.

They are 8-7-1 on the season with a minus-one goal differential. Their .531 points percentage sits sixth-last in the conference, and it would not have been good enough to qualify for the playoffs last season (Montreal was the eighth seed at .555, and in the west, Calgary missed with .585). There’s plenty of time for their record to move drastically up or down, so there’s no issue there; time is still very much on their side. 

The concern is the Leafs’ current brand of hockey and whether they can improve on it. 

Before the season, we wrote that the Leafs’ contention status depends on five-on-five improvement, a notion that still holds. There are almost no signs of five-on-five progress in the Leafs’ game so far. They sit 26th in five-on-five Corsi, although they’re reasonable-ish 17th in expected goals percentage. They own the third-best shooting percentage in the league so far, and the third-worst save percentage. 

The team scores plenty (fifth in the league in goals per game), gives up plenty (31st), doesn’t possess the puck much, and is middling at controlling scoring chances. They can probably get by with this recipe if their special teams are really good; their penalty kill is a respectable 14th, while their power play is finally showing signs of life (it’s clicking at 25% in November). 

If we want to view it through a glass-half-full lens, we can argue that both special team units are trending positively, and some of their save percentage woes will be rectified with Joseph Woll’s imminent return. There is likely some truth to this view.

The issue is that the five-on-five play hasn’t trended in the right direction, culminating in a loss to Carolina in which the Leafs were unequivocally dominated to an embarrassing degree. As Alec wrote after the game:

Shot attempts finished at 68-25 Carolina at five-on-five for a Leafs’ share of 26.8%; 498 NHL games have been played this regular season as of the time of writing, and that single-game shot attempt percentage ranks 497th. The Leafs have broken 50% in five-on-five shot attempts just four times in 16 games.

While some of this may bounce back and keep the Leafs competitive for a playoff spot, at the end of the day, we’re back to the same question: Can they control the puck enough to actually dictate games? The idea that any team can win four best-of-seven playoff series while ceding possession to four straight opponents is hard to fathom. Short of Joseph Woll/Anthony Stolarz standing on their heads, there’s almost no way to picture a post-season path to success under those circumstances.

Some of the Leafs’ play should (likely) rebound, and getting Chris Tanev and Joseph Woll back will certainly help their cause, but the root problems are unresolved if the goal is playoff success. Right now, it looks more like the Leafs are trying to outscore their problems rather than solve them. 

As this past weekend starkly demonstrated, the fundamental issue remains: Can this team possess the puck enough?

Notes

Auston Matthews, William Nylander, Matthew Knies
Photo: Dan Hamilton-Imagn Images

– All offseason, the Leafs’ headlines were dominated by one question: How would they replace Mitch Marner and his 100 points? Yet scoring has been the least of the team’s issues. They are fifth in goals per game and lead the league in five-on-five goals. All of William Nylander, Matthew Knies, and John Tavares are enjoying monster starts offensively. Morgan Rielly has 13 points in 15 games, Oliver Ekman-Larsson has 10 in 16, and Matias Maccelli and Nick Robertson have provided secondary scoring.

I’m not sure if the Leafs are attempting to prove they can still score despite Marner’s departure, but they are almost pushing too much for offense and are playing porous defense as a result. A lot of the goals against are caused by the team getting caught up ice too often; in particular, opposing defensemen are beating the Leafs’ forwards up the ice. It happened on the Seth Jarvis goal (the Leafs possessed it in the offensive zone, it turned the other way, and they got caught). It also happened on the Erik Karlsson goal against Pittsburgh (same deal, although it was a Simon Benoit turnover that time). 

– The early returns on the Matthew Knies – Auston Matthews – William Nylander line through 64 minutes of five-on-five play together, some of which is influenced by the odd shift earlier in the season: 46.53% of shot attempts, 56.7% of expected goals, and 6-6 in actual goals. The results have been middling, matching the eye test.

There are three skilled players who will all naturally produce, but they aren’t dominating play by any stretch, nor are they tilting the goal count at all. Over this past weekend, they were outscored 3-2 overall, and all five of those goals came in the Carolina game. Against Pittsburgh in the third period, we saw how they could be united when chasing a game and make an impact — similar to last year’s top line when Marner was on it — but they aren’t showing enough from a shift-to-shift, period-to-period basis. 

– Regarding the team’s possession play, we need to talk about the Leafs’ dump-ins. It’s where a lot of their issues stem from. The Leafs are a reasonable forechecking team when in a position to do it, but they often give themselves no chance due to poor dump-in decisions.

Against Boston, they repeatedly dumped in pucks that Bruins goaltender Jeremy Swayman could easily handle. The puck was either too close to the goalie or rimmed too softly around the boards, allowing Swayman to stop the puck and make a play.

Against Utah, there was a good example of a proper dump-in. After OEL rimmed a puck around the boards, McMann got in the forecheck (because it went all the way around the boards), won the battle, and Tavares scored what was ostensibly the game-winner. The Leafs’ ability to forecheck is dictated by the puck placement of the dump-in more than anything else. Far too often, it’s looking more like a pass to the other team. 

– On the positive side, the power play is showing some real signs of turning it around. They are clicking at 25% in November, and their power-play goals of late have come off actual plays/passing sequences, rather than a broken play like the one they scored on against Calgary a few weeks ago. The Tavares goal against Boston was a genuinely nice passing play, as was the Nylander goal against Carolina. Their biggest question essentially boils down to gaining the zone cleanly with regularity. A week ago, we were fairly wondering if it was time to split the units, but the power play had a good enough week to keep riding it as is.

– That includes giving the second power play unit some real ice-time opportunity. There are good players on it, and they were really good against Boston, scoring once and scoring right after another power play expired.

– The Leafs have yet to give up fewer than three goals with Chris Tanev out of the lineup. Tanev is a really good defensive defenseman and still their best defenseman overall (for my money), but he’s not that good. Tanev has played in eight games this season, and the team has given up two or fewer in three of those games. He’s a plus-five with a couple of assists. They certainly miss him, but it shouldn’t be this dire without him. 

– It’s too early to call it a breakout just yet, but it’s nice to see Nick Robertson chipping in real secondary offense with nine points in 15 games. His 13.3 shooting percentage is actually lower than his shooting percentage each of the past two seasons. Since the Columbus game, he’s averaging over 15 minutes per game and has seven points in six games. Most importantly, he has shown signs of gelling with each of the Leafs’ top two centers, which is critical if he’s going to stick in the top six. 

– It was a season-low 8:30 of ice time for Max Domi against Carolina, who is now -10 on the season. I know there is fluctuation in the plus/minus stat, but when a player is so drastically one way or the other, it’s almost always telling. And it is telling in this case.

The Leafs haven’t given a perfectly fine checking 4C a sniff this season (David Kampf) to largely play Domi at 4C in Scott Laughton’s absence, and Domi has been exposed there night after night. At this point, the coaching staff appears to have no clue what to do with him. He isn’t getting time in the top six, and his current linemates — a combo of Sammy Blais, Steven Lorentz, and Calle Jarnkrok — aren’t a fit for him.

Quotes

Craig Berube, Maple Leafs
Photo: John E. Sokolowski/Imagn Images

“For me, it is just a mindset. If you want to be a good defensive team, you have to check. You have to have good sticks. You have to be hard and win battles. You’ve got to have good structure.

“Right now, it is a mindset for me. We don’t have any of that right now.”

– Craig Berube on the team’s defensive woes

This is an interesting answer, namely because I don’t think it’s a mindset issue; I think it’s a systemic issue. Does there need to be a shift in mindset toward prioritizing defensive play? Probably, to some degree. But how will the team solve the problem if they aren’t even identifying it properly?

The Leafs defend too much because they don’t have the puck enough. They aren’t able to grind on teams in the offensive zone to make life easier for them defensively. In the defensive zone, other teams are working them at the points, and they don’t recover the puck fast enough with their pressure schemes (or lack thereof).

I’m not expecting Berube to get into the nuts and bolts of what’s not working systemically, but it’s a pretty damning answer, and the team’s play matches his answer — misaligned with the root problems. 

“It’s hard to describe. I just feel a little bit more myself here. In Toronto, it’s a little more corporate. You got people hovering over you all the time. You do an interview in Toronto, and they’re running down saying, ‘Hey, don’t say this.’ It’s like, ‘Well, then you do the interview.’ Here, they don’t come tell me what to do. I just feel like I’m a little freer to be myself here. Everything’s a bit more comfortable. When you’re comfortable, you play better. You have more fun. That’s just how it is.”

– Ryan Reaves on playing in San Jose vs. Toronto

I fully understand that people are tired of hearing from Reaves, but I did find this quote interesting. The Leafs are attempting to do a better job of showcasing their players with the hiring of Ryan Leslie and all of the exclusive content they’re producing, but they are clearly guarded overall. Some of it makes sense — it’s a big market with a huge following — but the muzzling of players, especially when it comes to anything resembling controversy, can still come across as inauthentic, and it creates a bit of a disconnect between the players and the fanbase at times.

“You could see it with them, too. They got a little frustrated. They got tired. And we just played smarter than them.”

– Marco Sturm on the Bruins’ third period against the Leafs

“We were really able to establish our forecheck. When they struggle getting pucks out of the zone, that feeds into our play. We were doing a good job staying above it, creating turnovers like you saw on Stankoven’s goal … Just being able to keep pressure on them, make them either high flip it out or struggle to get the puck out, that’s what our game thrives on.”

– Seth Jarvis on the Hurricanes’ success against the Leafs

The Bruins and Hurricanes walked into Toronto on the weekend, outplayed the Leafs, and confidently described outsmarting and systematically outmaneuvering them on the ice. The rest of the league is seeing it and taking advantage of it; the Leafs aren’t moving the puck well at all on breakouts. 

Tweets of the Week

David Kampf, Toronto Maple Leafs
Photo: Dan Hamilton/USA Today Sports

It’s hard to fathom a veteran team turning the puck over this much and providing freebies on a nightly basis. Truthfully, this is an easy fix and would go a long way toward smoothing out their erratic play.

At this point, the two sides need to find a resolution. While a contract termination is great in terms of clearing the Leafs’ books — especially for next offseason — I do think David Kampf would have been better than basically all the options they’ve rolled out on the fourth line this season. At least he can be trusted defensively.

It wasn’t pretty, but all in all, it played out okay for the Leafs. Cayden Primeau played three games and won two, and when they waived him, Carolina reclaimed, which completely clears his contract spot off the books for the Leafs. It would have been worse if the Leafs had kept him. They are down to 47 roster spots out of 50, and you never know when/for what you might need the space.

Five Things I Think I’d Do

Craig Berube, Maple Leafs bench
Nick Turchiaro-Imagn Images

1.   If I were the Leafs, I think I’d be looking to completely clamp down in the next few games and make the team play low-event, grind-it-out hockey. They aren’t even close to it right now; it’s complete firewagon hockey full of sloppiness. In five games in November, they’ve given up a whopping 21 goals while also scoring 21 — over four goals per game both ways. The defensive gaffes are in part because they push too aggressively for offense and get burned. Really, I want to see them prove they’re actually capable of locking a game down and being difficult to score on.

What does that look like? A simple 1-2-2 in the neutral zone to force dump-ins; quick-ups when they force those dump-ins; soft chips into the corners when the Leafs dump it in with a 1-2-2 forecheck, and lots of low-to-high, bodies-to-the-net plays with a proper F3. It would be extremely boring hockey, but I’m not sure they’re even capable of properly defending right now, and I think they need to dumb it right down. 

2.   I think it’s time to get back to some (attempted) balance by putting William Nylander back with John Tavares, Auston Matthews with Matthew Knies, and Nick Robertson back on Matthews’ right wing. The whole idea of loading up is that the top line has to dominate. They are not only not dominating, but they also didn’t win their minutes in either game this weekend. The Leafs are playing right into the hands of their opponents by making themselves a one-line team.

The Tavares line with McMann and Robertson has been pretty good, but nobody is game planning for this trio or shifting around their lineup to defend them. With Matthews on one line and Nylander on the other, opponents are forced to give some thought to their matchup approach.

The Dakota Joshua – Nic Roy – Matias Maccelli third line has been fine and should stay together. The fourth line is a mess, and ironically, it’s a bit of a shame they’ve messed around with this whole David Kampf situation because I’d rather have him center the fourth line with Steven Lorentz and Calle Jarnkrok; if nothing else, they wouldn’t get scored on.

3.   I don’t think the Leafs can justify running out Philippe Myers and Simon Benoit on the same defense core right now. They’re both bleeding chances against and have been liabilities on the ice. The team’s last good performance came against Utah; Dakota Mermis played (Benoit was sick) and acquitted himself well. If nothing else, Mermis at least provides some level of mobility and puck-moving ability. The puck is dying on Myers’ and Benoit’s sticks far too often, and the Leafs need all the help they can get moving the puck right now. Addition by subtraction is part of the solution.

4.   I think it was the right move to send Easton Cowan down to the Marlies. He acquitted himself pretty well with the Leafs and actually exceeded my expectations overall, but his roster spot was tenuous, and his ice time fluctuated drastically game to game. Cowan played more than 14:05 just once in his 10 games, and it was only because they were getting blown out by Columbus, so he pulled some mop-up duty. It’s not enough ice time for a 20-year-old, and heading down to the Marlies to play a ton — and in every situation — is far better for his long-term development. It’s up to Cowan now to perform well in the AHL and prove he belongs at the next level.

5.   I think this is a massive nine-game stretch of hockey for the Leafs over the next three weeks. American Thanksgiving is the benchmark for evaluating where a team truly stands, so I’m willing to see how it plays out until then, unless the Carolina performance becomes a regular occurrence over the next few weeks.

The process needs to improve, and the glaring defensive lapses need to be ameliorated. It’s a big stretch coming up, and the team can’t put itself too far behind the eight ball. While some of the teams above them are probably more hot than good (Boston, Detroit), we have to expect Florida will eventually get healthy and skyrocket up the standings. 

RELATED ARTICLESMORE FROM AUTHOR