It’s been 10 years since the draft lottery has been relevant in Toronto, and the organization was certainly in a much different place then than it is now.
After a well-orchestrated tank in 2015-16 with Lou Lamoriello in the GM’s chair and Mike Babcock behind the bench, there was a groundswell of positivity that the Maple Leafs were approaching their rebuild the right way and that the key decision makers in charge were among the best in the business. Optimism reached a fever pitch when the lottery balls broke in the Leafs’ favour, paving the way for Auston Matthews’ arrival in Toronto.
10 years on, with just two playoff series victories over the past decade, and two coaching changes and three GMs later, the Leafs are in a much more precarious spot, and popular support for the franchise’s current (not totally clear) direction is at an all-time low in the Matthews era. In a year when the Leafs — coming off technically their deepest playoff run in over 20 years in 2024-25 — were meant to contend, they’re sitting with the fifth-best odds in tonight’s lottery after a calamitous 78-point season. They’re hoping to stay where they are at fifth overall or move up to first or second overall, while riding the razor’s edge on the possibility of falling in the draft order and relinquishing a sixth or seventh overall pick to the rival Boston Bruins, due to the widely panned Brandon Carlo trade made by the since-fired GM, Brad Treliving.
It’s a dark time in Leafs Nation, who are largely down on the Leafs’ executive leadership under MLSE President Keith Pelley and skeptical of the new management regime led by John Chayka. After a disastrous year on and off the ice, the fan base is in desperate need of a new source of hope. The organization lacks blue-chip prospects (particularly at C and D), is facing a deficit in draft-pick capital, and has an aging roster with debatable near-term contention prospects, even with a yeoman’s offseason from the incoming GM.
Treliving’s Leafs were actually in a playoff spot as of mid-January, but they went a ridiculous 5-15-5 post-Olympics, which ranked dead last in the NHL, and they finished the year on a seven-game losing streak. That’s the only reason we’re sitting here today with any substantial hope of a favourable lottery outcome in which the Leafs might retain their 2026 first-round draft pick.
Securing a top-five selection, a day after the new management team arrived, would be a great start toward brightening the overall outlook, whether the Leafs’ retool around William Nylander and Auston Matthews is ultimately successful or if it’s one final prelude to a full-scale rebuilding project.
“I don’t concern myself with things I can’t control,” Chayka said on Monday. “Of course, I’ll look a lot smarter if we win. That would help a lot.”
Here are the Leafs’ odds:
| Pick | Leafs' Lottery Odds |
|---|---|
| 1st Overall | 8.5% |
| 2nd Overall | 8.6% |
| 3rd Overall | 0.3% |
| 4th Overall | - |
| 5th Overall | 24.5% |
| 6th Overall | 44% |
| 7th Overall | 14.2% |
A reminder of the lottery rules: A set of 14 ping pong balls is placed in a lottery machine, allowing for 1,001 combinations. Each team in the lottery is assigned a set of four random numbers. The worse a team’s record, the more combinations they are assigned (e.g., the Leafs have an 8.6 chance of winning the first lottery draw). The first draw of ping pong balls determines the first overall pick, with a team only able to move up a maximum of 10 spots. There is then a second draw to determine the second pick.
Clutch your prayer beads, Leafs Nation!
The 2026 NHL Draft Lottery is held at NHL Network studios in Secaucus, New Jersey, on Tuesday (7 p.m. ET; ESPN, SN, TVAS).
