Just when you think you’re out…
Long-time Maple Leafs diehards are extremely familiar with the rollercoaster ride of following this beleaguered franchise day in and day out over the years, but the last 24-48 hours are about as dizzying as it gets.
First, a controversial GM hire with little initial popular support was announced by a decidedly unpopular MLSE President who didn’t convincingly address the obvious, justified concerns among the fan base; Keith Pelley didn’t seem to feel obligated to even try in some parts of the presser, instead leaning on a lot of “trust me” for someone just about no one in Toronto trusts right now. Nor did Pelley properly articulate the structure or hierarchy of the new management group. An awkward, fidgety press conference didn’t win many over on the direction under new leadership, the warm-and-fuzzy feelings of seeing Mats Sundin back in the mix aside.
Fast forward to a momentous draft lottery victory just 24 hours later, against 8.5% odds, and suddenly, food tastes better, the air feels fresher, the opposite sex finds us more attractive, and Maple Leafs fans are riding the high of a big, fresh hit of hope mainlined into their systems. As Chayka put it on Monday, “I’ll be a lot smarter if we win.”
It doesn’t change everything, but it changes a lot.
As much as Chayka correctly identified the clear areas for improvement if the Leafs are to pull off their “retooling around Matthews and Nylander” agenda on Monday, he faced steep obstacles in the execution of it: among them, a dearth of trade ammo, a lack of emerging talent from within the system, an aging and flawed defense corps, and a relatively weak UFA class. It would’ve required some real ingenuity to pull off, if pulling it off means the Leafs re-entering the group of roughly 8-10 teams with a fighting chance at a deep playoff run (which is where the Leafs lived for most of the Matthews era prior to this past season).
The obvious risk was that the Leafs could’ve found themselves in a purgatorial “delayed rebuild” state in which they were flailing in an attempt to contend within the remainder of the Matthews and Nylander window, ultimately falling short of seriously contending while handing first-round picks over to conference rivals in the process. It wasn’t hard to picture a dark, protracted timeline in which the Leafs kicked the larger-scale rebuilding project down the road while icing a stale product no one really believed in anymore for a year or two longer, living in the mushy middle until the point when some combination of Matthews, Nylander, and the club finally decided enough was enough.
Now, a Gavin McKenna doesn’t change absolutely everything in this regard or solve all of the Leafs’ problems, but it definitely breathes new life into the concept of rejuvenating a Matthews and Nylander-led Maple Leafs with a younger, cost-controlled new wave of core players that includes Knies, McKenna/1OA, and Cowan. To dream of the more ideal scenarios, think of Meier and Hertl emerging in San Jose to give their group a youthful boost en route to a deep run later in the Thornton/Pavelski/Burns/Couture era, or Point and Cirelli emerging for Tampa to help Kucherov/Stamkos/Hedman and co. over the playoff hump.
Of course, there is still a ton of work to do on building out the front office, reshaping the defense, rejigging the forward depth, finding the right coach who can fix the structural pieces and develop players properly (assuming Craig Berube is gone, which can’t be assumed at all yet), and rejuvenating the culture. But it opens up real options for Chayka in reconstructing the roster as he sees fit. It will also grab the attention of players, coaches, and executives around the league (who might’ve otherwise given some real thought to the recently trendy idea that the downside of playing or working in Toronto might outweigh its benefits, although I think this was media-driven/overblown as a deterrent to begin with).
The pitch of coming to Toronto to help manage, coach, or play for a team that has McKenna/1OA, Matthews, Nylander, Knies, Tavares, Cowan, McCabe, Tanev, OEL, Woll, and Stolarz all locked in nearly writes itself. It’s not a turnkey Cup contender, but there is a lot to work with here, and now there has been a major injection of the new “momentum” that Chayka had been talking about manufacturing in Toronto prior to this lottery win.
On that note, I loved Mats Sundin’s answer when a reporter immediately tried to take this lottery win in the direction of “that’ll be a lot of pressure on this kid in this market!” He simply gave it no time of day. He just said this is the best place in the world to play hockey — full stop, end of story. No, “Yes, it can be difficult, but…” just, “There’s no better place to be,” period. It was perfect — simple and unwavering. I hope this approach trickles down to the coaches and players when fielding these kinds of questions going forward. It is a big part of Mats’ mission here.
Lastly, we all owe the other options at the top of the 2026 draft class an honest evaluation. But I’ll say this: at first blush, McKenna’s staggering 16-year-old and d-1 production in the WHL (it was historic, as in top-three-all-time good on a point-per-game basis for CHLers of his age), his WJC production, his Memorial Cup appearance, and his final college tally (despite a challenging adjustment early on), just scream a level of upside potential that is really hard/scary to pass on. A true star, particularly one on an ELC, at any position on the roster changes a franchise’s flexibility around moving other pieces for help in the current positions of need. He isn’t blessed physically and will have work to do rounding out his game, but McKenna has the “it” factor — the transcendent hockey IQ and truly special skill set. I don’t want to say it’s a no-brainer quite in the same manner as Laine vs. Matthews (it’s not a center vs. a winger debate this time, and I definitely don’t anticipate the gap between those at the top of this 2026 draft will be as big, either). But this isn’t the 2022 draft, either, where legitimate concerns caused the previous consensus top pick to fall (Shane Wright) and it became a wide-open debate at #1. I reserve the right to revisit this in the coming weeks.
