It’s another busy week ahead in Leafland, so let’s jump right into a meaty Leafs Notebook.
Look out for part two tomorrow between games. I think it’s one you’ll enjoy mulling over.
Notes
– Last season in Montreal, Bobby McMann scored the exact same goal on a 2v1 against Sam Montembault, coming down on his off-wing and going far-side, low blocker. The only real difference is he used his own stick the first time. He is sniping goals with the same plays and shots, a sign of a true goal scorer.
Since his breakout hat trick last season against St. Louis, McMann has played 69 games and scored 26 goals and 37 points (with an eye-popping +25 plus/minus). Only two of those goals came on the power play, and he’s averaging just over 14 minutes of TOI in that time. He’s capable of more, and he’s starting to get more ice time after eight points in nine games in December. He’s averaging 15:54 per game in January and has five points in nine games (three goals). With his speed and ability to forecheck and defend, he’s clearly showing himself as the best option to play alongside Nylander, who he can keep up with while burying his looks.
– Before McMann kicked off the scoring against the Canadiens, the Leafs were on a 3.5-game run where William Nylander and Auston Matthews combined to score the Leafs‘ last six goals. The dam broke, so to speak, after the goal. Still, we can clearly see the depth-scoring issues when all of Max Domi (three goals), David Kampf (four goals), Steven Lorentz (five goals), Ryan Reaves (zero goals), Pontus Holmberg (two goals), and even Max Pacioretty (five goals) make up half of the forward group. Is anyone in this group going to reach double-digit goals this season? Maybe one?
The Leafs have six forwards who have hit double digits, and Nick Robertson is at eight (just a matter of time). After those six, it’s a real debate. Last season’s Cup winner had nine forwards hit double-digit goals, plus one defenseman, and they traded for Vladimir Tarasenko and Kyle Okposo, who both reached double digits.
– It’s hard to make sense of Max Domi’s season. He started the season by not scoring a goal in his first 22 games, followed by a three-game goal-scoring streak, and now he’s mired in a 14-game and counting goalless streak. He’s playing at a 36-point pace over 82 games right now.
While he played through an injury earlier in the season, he has been back and skating well for weeks, with his injury clearly behind him. He has 11 points in 20 games since returning, which isn’t horrible by any stretch, but the lack of goals is tough to fathom. He has just 12 goals in 119 games as a Leaf so far.
Berube has been pleading with him to shoot all season through the media, but he currently has the lowest shot-per-game rate of his entire career at 1.41. He was at 1.71 last season. He should be another double-digit goal scorer for this team, but he’s not even close right now.
– I liked seeing Conor Timmins throw a big hit on Michael Pezzetta right after Ryan Reaves got planted. You don’t always have to stand up for teammates by fighting; you can throw a big hit of your own. In this case, it was 3-0, the crowd was buzzing, and it quieted things down a little bit.
Timmins has slowed down a bit after a good start to the season, but if we look at his season, it’s a tale of two partners. Playing primarily with Simon Benoit, the pairing has primarily taken defensive-zone faceoffs, where they have been outshot, out-chanced, and outscored (9-8) at five-on-five. It’s not just about playing with Benoit, though; it’s a role where Timmins is taking a bunch of defensive-zone faceoffs and getting a lot of shifts with the Leafs‘ checkers (Lorentz, Holmberg, Kampf).
When he’s not with Benoit, Timmins’ deployment has been what we would expect: softer matchups and offensive-zone starts. Without Benoit, he’s up 14-6 in five-on-five goals and controls over 53 percent of shot attempts and 60 percent of expected goals. When paired with OEL, the pairing is up 6-2 in goals in the sheltered offensive role. It’s the role that makes the most sense for his skillset.
– On the flip side, that’s two straight games now where Timmins has been on for a power-play goal against off a shot that has come from his side of the ice because he couldn’t block it. On both goals, it appeared as if Joseph Woll shot him some sort of look afterward, too. Timmins has had some decent moments on the PK at times, but he can’t continually be beaten in those spots where all he’s really doing is screening his own goalie. He’s tentatively going into lanes instead of aggressively challenging and putting his body on the line.
– In Jake McCabe’s two games since returning, he has two assists, is up 4-0 in five-on-five goals, and has played 24:16 and 26:06, respectively. It’s hard to understate his importance at this point; he plays huge minutes and all the tough matchups, is a top-of-the-line penalty killer, provides a physical threat, and is third among their defensemen in points per game. He does a bit of everything and does it all at an above-average to high level.
– After a three-point game, Oliver Ekman-Larsson‘s point-per-game rate rose to .39, roughly in line with where we would expect it to be. He has never been a big point producer — his career high is 55 points, and his next highest is 44. What he can do is score, as he once recorded six straight seasons of at least 12 goals, and he scored nine last season with Florida. His goal against Montreal is something he has proven he can do — he can snap pucks through traffic. Let’s see if he can build off of it.
Quotes
“We talked about it. In my opinion, it wasn’t just another game. It was a big game for both teams.”
– Craig Berube, on playing a surging Habs team on Saturday night in January.
During the Sheldon Keefe era, we regularly brought up his tendency to continually downplay what would generally be considered a big game — primetime, a division rival, a potential playoff opponent, etc.
I’m sure the logic was not to over-hype games throughout an 82-game grind and to approach everything the same. It’s also a good way to safeguard a poor performance. But I think it’s important to acknowledge the magnitude of certain rivalries, occasions, and opponents. It’s not only about maintaining a high standard night in and night out but also the ability to elevate when the time calls for it. The time to practice that is now.
But — and there is a but — I will flag that this “big game” in Montreal looked like many other “big games” in the first period. The Habs came out flying, and the Leafs were not even close to ready to match it. They basically went down to five defensemen in the game and demoted their 2C. Morgan Rielly played under 17 minutes as he struggled most of the night. Their top line produced nothing at five-on-five.
The Leafs eventually got things going; Nylander was the best player on the ice after the first period, the second unit scored two power-play goals, and Woll was excellent. But there were too many puzzling or underperforming players in a big game.
“I am happy for Lorentz — good Waterloo-Kitchener boy who has had a really great journey through hockey. I like to see that. I like it when coaches reward guys like that for effort.
I don’t think it hurts the big players to get some of that directness and physicality in their game. We do that once in a while here, too. A lot of the time it sparks your big guys.”
– Pete DeBoer on the Leafs moving Steven Lorentz up the lineup vs. the Stars
Even though the Leafs didn’t win the game, I think it’s good to promote players up the lineup when they’ve earned it. Steven Lorentz has played some really effective hockey for the team, serving as a diligent checker and chipping in about as much offense as we could reasonably expect. It’s a good message throughout the lineup to show players that they will be recognized and rewarded if they work hard.
“You know, it’s tough… In the second period, I felt they loaded up that top line and stuff, and you don’t know when it’s coming, and you want to make sure you have the right guys on the ice. It was not an easy game in terms of matchups and how he was rolling his lines.”
– Martin St. Louis when asked about Michael Pezzetta playing under three minutes
The question was specifically about Pezzetta’s ice time, but it’s an interesting answer from an opposing coach in general regarding how the Leafs loading up a line can shift the matchups around.
The loaded-up line didn’t score — Nylander had one good one-timer in the slot on the first shift, and they gave up two good looks on their next — but on their second shift, it came right out of a TV timeout for a neutral-zone faceoff with 5:09 left in the period. The Leafs loaded up, so St. Louis responded with his Jake Evans shutdown line. The Habs created those two aforementioned chances and an offensive-zone faceoff, so the Leafs countered with Kampf centering McMann and Knies, and the Habs put out Patrik Laine’s line for the draw.
On the next change on the fly, the Leafs put out their regular third line, and St. Louis tried to get his matchups back in order (both teams had been going head-to-head with Suzuki against Matthews), so he put out the third line again with Evans. Holmberg drew a penalty.
By the time Nick Suzuki — who I would rate as their best forward by a considerable margin — got on the ice, there was about 1:20 left in the period, and he was promptly scored on. They kept Suzuki on after the goal with his regular first line, and Berube smartly moved up Nylander to play with Kampf and Lorentz on the shift, with McCabe and Tanev on the back end, and the Habs generated nothing against that unit.
It was a big five minutes in the game as the Leafs managed to swing things in their favour, make it a 3-2 game, and keep the Habs’ top player and line off the ice coming out of a TV timeout at home.
Tweets of the Week
Down 3-2 in the third (3-0 in the first), the #Leafs beat the Canadiens 7-3. Sixth win of the season for Toronto when trailing after two, tying them for most in the NHL.
— Terry Koshan 🇺🇦 (@koshtorontosun) January 19, 2025
The Leafs are hot off two back-to-back wins while trailing going into the third period. Before the game against New Jersey, as Alec noted in the Game in 10, the Leafs scored just 2.32 goals per 60 over all situations when trailing this season — dead-last in the league. They were fifth the season before.
The firepower from that season is all still in place — they really only lost Tyler Bertuzzi offensively — but we could see at times that they have been so focused on playing low-event hockey that when they fall behind, they haven’t always been able to flip the switch and make a push offensively.
Logically, it makes sense to focus on defense first, then slowly build out the offensive side of the game. They seem to be trending the other way of late — more offense than defense — and have time down the stretch to get healthy and find the right balance.
#NHL players have been notified escrow withholding from checks will be terminated for the remainder of this season starting with Jan. 30 payroll run. Revenue projections indicate amount already withheld will also be returned in full following final season accounting.
Related:…
— Frank Seravalli (@frank_seravalli) January 18, 2025
This is something to monitor as the salary cap may increase more than the reported ~$4 million to somewhere in the $95 million range. That would give the Leafs nearly $31 million in cap space, and they already have seven forwards, six defensemen, and two goalies under contract.
The Leafs’ only RFA due for a notable raise is Knies, and they have a collection of depth players to make decisions about (Holmberg, Dewar, Timmins, and Robertson). Even if they brought back all four, it wouldn’t cost them much. There will be a lot of flexibility, even if they sign Marner to a contract that takes up roughly a third of the available space.
A projected goal rate of 4.43%? Not a problem for Auston Matthews! 🍁
NHL Edge IQ powered by @awscloud pic.twitter.com/fLypTEk20p
— NHL (@NHL) January 17, 2025
This is a cool breakdown of how good of a snipe this was by Matthews not only to score but to tie the game late in the third period en route to a win.
Matthews had a similar look from the same spot earlier in the game against Markstrom and tried to go five-hole. Markstrom looked keenly aware of that on the next attempt, and Matthews is so dangerous that he can’t be stopped if he gets multiple looks from the same spots—an elite goal scorer who doesn’t need much.
Five Things I Think I’d Do
1. When the Leafs benched Philippe Myers against Montreal, I think the way they managed their defense from that point forward is more of a blueprint for how they should handle the defense unit.
With a five-man rotation, the Leafs moved Jake McCabe and Chris Tanev around. Tanev played regularly with Oliver Ekman-Larsson, and McCabe got steady shifts with Morgan Rielly and Conor Timmins. At key times, they would reunite McCabe and Tanev.
They can’t have only one pairing to rely on right now, but entering any game, that’s the current reality. They can get by when they’re just managing the third pairing, but not the second pairing, too. I’d look to reunite the Benoit-McCabe pairing, put Rielly with Tanev, and keep OEL-Timmins for a few games. Myers has struggled the last few games and probably needs a bit of a reset.
2. At least to begin the game against Tampa Bay, I think Pontus Holmberg has earned the center spot on the second line between Bobby McMann and William Nylander. It’s only two games, but Holmberg has been really good in both games since his time as a healthy scratch and earned his promotion up the lineup, even if Max Domi’s play against Montreal gave them little choice.
Holmberg drew a penalty in both games — he leads the team with 12 drawn overall — and has created several scoring chances. He picked up a secondary assist against Montreal on the power play with a nice cross-ice feed that opened the play up.
I don’t think he’s really a solution up the lineup or even sold on him at center all of a sudden, but he’s playing well right now, so let’s see how far they can push it. Nylander and McMann are great linemates for him; he can cover defensively and dig on the walls, and he doesn’t need the puck on his stick all too much to make an impact in that spot.
3. I think leaving the McMann-Holmberg-Nylander line together would leave you with Domi and Robertson reunited on the third line, except I’d actually like to see Domi moved to the wing and insert Fraser Minten at center for a look.
Domi has played center pretty well the entire season, and he isn’t producing enough in that spot, nor is he good enough defensively to live with the lack of production. Perhaps moving to the wing can spark some more consistent production and loosen his defensive responsibilities in the process.
The Leafs also should be getting Minten into games if he’s going to be up with the team right now. Otherwise, they should send him down and call up Alex Steeves, but Minten shouldn’t miss a full weekend of Marlies games to watch Leafs games from the press box.
It’s a weak line defensively, on paper, but they are at home for two straight to control the matchups.
4. I think Dennis Hildeby is in a boat similar to Minten. He should play against Tampa Ba. Otherwise, what’s the point? It would be his first game in nine days, which isn’t nearly enough action for a 23-year-old goalie who should be developing.
The Marlies have 37 games remaining in their season, while the Leafs have 35. Hildeby has played 13 games this season between both clubs. Last season, he played 41 games in the regular season and three playoff games. Is he even going to hit 30 games at this rate in a season where he has been healthy to this point?
5. While I would have been interested in looking at John Klingberg on a completely risk-free contract, I think his $1.74 million cap hit would have been too pricey. If anything, I am surprised he wouldn’t come back to the Leafs over the Oilers, given he won’t play on their top power-play unit over Evan Bouchard and considering the Leafs paid him a lot of money to not play last season while supporting him with the organization’s resources as he underwent surgery in the middle of the season. A free look would have been nice, but it had to be entirely on the Leafs’ terms.
