Finally, the NHL offseason is here. The draft is approaching, followed by free agency, and the Maple Leafs have many holes to fill.
We’ve spent time reviewing the Leafs‘ two big free agents at forward, and regardless of what happens with John Tavares and Mitch Marner, the team has needs to address.
As of now, the Leafs‘ roster consists of the following up front:
- Top Six Forwards: Matthews, Knies, Nylander, McMann/Domi
- Bottom Six Forwards: McMann/Domi, Laughton, Holmberg, Jarnkrok
There is a ton of room for volatility there — chief among the question marks are whether they can shed David Kampf’s contract, and if Calle Jarnkrok will remain on the team — but no matter how we boil it down, the Leafs need to add three or four quality forwards, depending on who they retain.
Working in the Leafs‘ favour is ample cap space and a pretty good sales pitch for free agents. They already have in place what was an elite goalie tandem from last season and a solid veteran defense. They have two stars at forward, an emerging star power forward, and several useful players up front. This isn’t the dire situation some are making it out to be. There are lots of good pieces in place, but they need to surround them better and find better fits for their system in order to control play at a higher level.
Before we get into specific free agent options, I want to address a couple of points.
The first is the idea that the Leafs must replace Marner’s 100 points. It will not happen, and this really shouldn’t be the concept. The loss of a star forward will impact the Leafs over an 82-game season, knowing Marner could win them a random game in November to collect valuable points in the standings. Losing Marner for free sucks — there is no way around it — but an opportunity now emerges because he was already making a ton of money. The Leafs aren’t losing a star who was underpaid and will now need to somehow replace him for the same cap allotment. They are losing a star who makes a substantial amount of money, and they now have cap space available to fill multiple holes.
The Leafs will need to replace what the top line with Marner — which seemingly was never allowed to be broken up — produced. They outscored opponents 36-23, owned 52.3% of the shot attempts, and controlled 55.27% of the expected goals, so they actually outproduced their expected output (which makes sense, given their talent). They didn’t do enough to consistently drive play and string together dominant, game-changing shifts, considering their talent level and salaries. I genuinely think all sorts of wingers can slot beside an improving Knies and (a hopefully healthy) Matthews, and the line could either match or exceed the 2024-25 results. It’s not a tall task, especially if Matthews is healthy.
Some real concerns also exist on special teams, where Marner was legitimately very good on the point of the power play and was also a solid penalty killer.
Now, it sounds like Marner might drag his decision into July, and for the Leafs, this should be a positive. They can and should move on now and attempt to jump the market on other players while certain teams around the league wait around on Marner. They need to build three quality lines, and this opportunity is now in front of them.
Before getting into some of the names in the free agent market, I’m anticipating a lot of, “will it be enough to beat Florida,” and “Is that player tough enough to compete against Florida?” Not only do I not believe in this mentality, but I also don’t think it really aligns with how Florida built their roster.
We’ve all heard the many compliments of Florida’s identity as a big, bad, physical team. While they can be one, it doesn’t align with all of the players they acquired over the past few years. Evan Rodrigues is 5’11. They bought low on Sam Reinhart, who was getting into arguments with a Sabres reporter after dogging a backcheck. They took a swing on Carter Verhaeghe, who wasn’t proven or a particularly tough player. They took a swing on a small defenseman in Brandon Montour, who washed out of Buffalo, as well as Oliver Ekman-Larsson and Nate Schmidt. Nobody would consider Anton Lundell or Eetu Loustarainen physical headhunters; they are simply good players who helped Florida win. The Panthers have done really well at identifying good players and acquiring them for less than their worth, whether it’s through efficient free agent contracts or smart trades.
At the end of the day, the Leafs need to find quality players who positively impact the team and bring value to the table — plus players who do more than just take shifts or chip in the occasional offensive contribution.
With the preamble out of the way, here is Part 1 of my series on free-agent options I’m eyeing as potential plus players who can bring something to the table for the Leafs. Like every free agent, it will always come down to the salary and term, and as the old saying goes, in free agency, you spend a million too much and a year too long. We must be mindful and exercise some caution, but the Leafs have the dollars to throw around and the spots to fill.
We’ll start with the “difference-making” forwards in whom I’d have varying degrees of interest if I were in the Leafs. Look out for Parts 2 and 3 — looking at the middle-six options and the depth options — in the next few days.
Brad Marchand
- 2024-25 season: 71 games, 23 goals, 51 points, 18:19 per game, 50.08 CF%, 48.8 xGF%
- 2025 Playoffs: 23 games, 10 goals, 20 points, 16:40 per game
- Level of interest: Extremely high, but it should really be a three-year deal
Things To Like
I don’t think Brad Marchand needs much of an introduction at this point. He has a borderline Hall-of-Fame resume; he should pass 1,000 points, and he has now won his second Stanley Cup, playing a big role in both championships. In his playoff career, he has 158 playoff points in 180 playoff games. This spring alone, he produced 20 points in 23 games, including 10 goals, and seven of those came when the score was tied. He’s a certified gamer (as Sam Bennett phrased it on the ice after the Cup win, “He’s the biggest dog I’ve ever played with.”)
One of Marchand’s main strengths is that he touches every situation in a game. He’s still a really good penalty killer, he can produce on the power play, and he can be used in a matchup role or a secondary scoring role. He drew the sixth-most power plays in the league last season, even if his net differential was just +4. While he is short in stature, he’s really strong on the puck and can make plays in traffic/hold onto pucks along the walls, which is one reason why he has generally been part of dominant lines alongside players like Patrice Bergeron and David Pastrnak. He won’t pile up 100 points like Marner did, but it’s almost impossible for me to think that the Knies-Matthews line wouldn’t be a better overall unit with Marchand on it.
Marchand has scored at least 20 goals in every season of his career, save for a lockout-shortened campaign where he had 18 in 45, although his point totals have started to trend down. He’s not the 30+ goal man who hit 100 points once anymore, but he’s still a productive scorer who can help any line with his well-rounded game and experience. Ultimately, even if he isn’t scoring, he finds a way to impact games.
Marchand’s versatility would give the Leafs a ton of options. He could viably play a big role on any of the Leafs’ top three lines, which should help Marchand continue to age gracefully. He’ll score, he’ll defend, he’ll annoy opponents, and he’s a good special-teams player.
There is also, one would hope, additional benefits from adding Marchand to the room in terms of the overall team vibe and culture. Marchand is great with the media, and I wouldn’t exactly argue that many other Leafs are right now. While their playoff futility is the ultimate reason why we’re in this position, I think the relationship with the media has contributed to the disconnect between the team and fans. Marchand would be a good voice for the team, and that’s not nothing in this market, especially in the current circumstances.
Causes for Concern
The main concerns are pretty clear: Marchand is 37 and just completed a monster playoffs that will catapult his salary as well as the term he receives on his next contract. How long can he remain a productive player at this stage of his career, and how much are you paying him in the event that he does steadily decline?
Right this second, Marchand is a great player and would be a fantastic fit; I don’t think anyone could logically argue otherwise. The question is how much longer Marchand can keep it up, and are you going to pay him too much for what he’s going to become in short order?
Sam Bennett
- 2024-25 Season: 76 games, 25 goals, 51 points, 17:27 per game, 54.27 CF%, 54.06 xGF%
- 2025 Playoffs: 23 games, 15 goals, 22 points, 17:34 per game
- Level of interest: High, but need to exercise some caution on a long-term deal
Things to Like
This is another player Leafs fans need no introduction to. For my money, Bennett is the best center on the UFA market this summer, in part because he’s still under 30 (he’s turning 29 this week). Brad Treliving drafted Bennett, so he’s very familiar with him, but it wasn’t until he went to Florida that Bennett took off in his career. In four full seasons in Florida, he has played to a 26-goal, 53-point pace per 82 games.
Bennett is a good finisher in the middle, but the real value is his ability to forecheck and drive play up ice. He’s really effective at lugging the puck through the neutral zone and causing turnovers with his physicality. He goes to the hard areas and plays a pure north-south game that leads to offensive-zone possession time. While some of it is due to Florida’s system and his linemates (like Matthew Tkachuk), Bennett is controlling over 56 percent of shot attempts in his four-plus seasons with the Panthers. That’s music to the ears of a Leafs team that struggled to consistently forecheck and grind pucks in the offensive zone.
I think Bennett would be a really good fit to center William Nylander as a forechecker who will do a lot of dirty work, create space for Nylander, and hold onto pucks in the offensive zone, while also providing a good enough finisher to complement Nylander offensively. Benett would also provide a good option to center Matthew Knies — two power forwards who build off each other’s physical games, the way Bennett is currently deployed with Tkachuk in Florida. Bennett wouldn’t replicate John Tavares’ raw production, but he’d play with more pace and allow the Leafs to possess the puck more as a team, which is what wins games at the end of the day.
There is also Bennett’s playoff pedigree. ‘Playoff Bennett’ is real, as his production shoots up in the spring, and he now has a Conn Smyth to his name after leading the playoffs with 15 goals. He has 78 points in 107 playoff games in his career. Over the last three years specifically, he has 56 points in 66 playoff games as the Panthers have gone to three straight Cups.
There is also the physical, somewhat dirty element Bennett brings to the table, as he has claimed all sorts of victims along those postseason runs, clean or otherwise. You may not like it as a fan of the team on the other side, but a heat-seeking missile who can inflict pain is a positive asset, particularly at playoff time.
Causes for Concern
It’s impossible to ignore Bennett’s potential salary and what the Leafs would need to do to entice him out of Florida. Bennett is coming off a monster playoffs with 15 goals and a Conn Smyth Trophy, following a Four Nations showing where he was a difference maker on a loaded Canadian team. He is a gamer, pure and simple, but in the regular season, he hasn’t been productive on a level that matches what his salary is about to become.
Bennett just produced a career-high 51 point season, and while fans will suggest we don’t care if he produces in the playoffs, if he’s making $8M+ to produce 45-50 point seasons, the pressure to be not just good but a full-on stud in the playoffs is going to be through the roof. That’s a tall task. Signing long-term and needing to manufacture monstrous playoff runs every spring to justify his contract has the real potential to turn ugly in the Toronto market.
Bennett is just 29, so it’s fair to think he has some solid seasons ahead of him, but it’s also fair to wonder how his game will age. Players tend to become less physical as they get older, and physicality is a huge part of Bennett’s game. I don’t think this is a David Clarkson situation as some have suggested — Clarkson was never a Team Canada participant or a consistent playoff monster the way Bennett has been — but again, Bennett’s regular season margins are already slim relative to what he’s about to be paid, and if/when he takes further steps back, it’s only going to magnify his contract further.
There is also the matter of Bennett’s physical antics might play with the Department of Player Safety once he is in the Toronto spotlight wearing a Leaf jersey. In one sense, it feels a little ridiculous to give too much weight to this factor, but given the double standard at play, we’d be remiss to ignore it altogether.
Nikolaj Ehlers
- 2024-25 Season: 69 games, 24 goals, 63 points, 15:48 per game, 52.75 CF%, 55.11 xGF%
2025 Playoffs: 8 games, 5 goals, 7 points, 17:17 per game - Level of interest: Moderate, because it sounds like he could receive around $9 million, but he’s a good player who would help the Leafs
Things to Like
Ehlers is a legitimate, proven, productive top-six winger. At 29, he’s on the younger side for free agents. He’s one of the best skaters in the league and can drive play, posting positive puck possession numbers and a positive goal differential at five-on-five in every single season of his career. He’s also scored at least 20 goals in every season of his career except his rookie campaign and an injury-shortened season where he scored 12 in 45. He’s fast, consistently produces, reliably wins his minutes, and is of a good age. There’s a lot to like about his game.
While he’s on the smaller side at 6’0, listed at 172 pounds, Ehlers does have a bit of a jam and has actually recorded at least one fight in each of his past six seasons. There’s a bit of an edge that can be drawn out of him now and again, which is always welcome.
Ehlers is said to be looking for a good team where he could be a primary contributor. The Leafs can easily offer this opportunity; they just won the Atlantic Division, with potentially multiple openings in their top-six wing group, plus top power-play unit spots up for grabs. Ehlers can play either wing, making him a versatile option who can play on either top-six line. The Leafs could move Nylander up to play with Matthews and ask Ehlers to drive the second line, play Ehlers on the right wing with Knies and Matthews, attempt to pair up Ehlers and Nylander while keeping Knies and Matthews together above them, or even pair up Ehlers with Matthews while playing Knies with Nylander. All of those options, in theory, offer some promise.
Causes for Concern
There are a few significant red flags to consider.
Ehlers is clearly a good player, but his coaches never seem to fully trust him. In each of the past three seasons, one of the Jets’ most productive players has averaged under 16 minutes per game. Winnipeg has been a successful team in that time under two different head coaches, but neither one seemed to truly trust Ehlers with heavy minutes. One can argue that the coaches didn’t know what they were doing, but I tend to err toward two NHL coaches probably not making an egregious mistake with a prime-aged player, especially when they are running teams with lots of regular-season success.
It’s hard for me to look past Ehler’s workload when there is talk about $9M+ per season. Ehlers would need to be a genuine workhorse for that price, not a 15-16 minute player.
Ehlers turned just 29 this year, so he should have lots of good hockey left in him, but he’s likely going to receive a contract with a big term, and his game is predicated on his speed and skating ability. What does he look like when he eventually loses a step, and when exactly will that happen? Morgan Rielly is only two years older than Ehlers, and we all saw his game last season.
Up until this past spring, Ehlers has also generally struggled in the playoffs. Before his seven points in eight playoff games this spring, he tallied just 14 in 37. While he did produce finally this playoff, he was also a bit chaotic overall. At five-on-five, he was outscored 4-2, and on any given shift, he was either team’s most dangerous player. On one hand, his speed and skill alongside Nylander would probably be really fun, but it’s fair to question if that’s really a championship recipe.
