The Stanley Cup Finals are underway, and the draft and free agency are around the corner. While we prepare for those big movement days, bits and bobs of news are trickling in.
Here are five thoughts on some of the recent news items in Leafland:
Lane Lambert’s Departure
The most notable development since Brendan Shanahan’s departure is the Maple Leafs losing their associate coach to the Seattle Kraken. Lane Lambert was actually the first associate coach in Leafs history, which seems to be a bit of a new trend around the league where an associate ranks between the top dog and the assistants.
Lambert clearly had a significant say in the operation and specifically oversaw the Leafs‘ defensive zone and penalty kill. Both of those units improved year over year under his watch, so his departure is worth discussing.
The Leafs benefited from a massive improvement in goals against in 2024-25, jumping from 21st to eighth (with a nod to improved goaltending, too). At five-on-five, they allowed the third-fewest five-on-five goals in the league. They were really effective at boxing out the front of their net and had no issue surrendering shots from the perimeter. It was essentially the same formula that Lambert and Barry Trotz brought to the New York Islanders when they went to back-to-back Eastern Conference Finals.
Where there is room for criticism is the extent to which the Leafs were willing to concede perimeter play to an almost detrimental level inside their own zone. It is tough to criticize a unit that was top 10 defensively in terms of goals against without a true stud defenseman on the roster. Still, it’s important to note that they gave up so much volume to the point where it became problematic.
The Leafs ranked 26th in shot attempts allowed per 60 minutes; the Stanley Cup Finalists were second and third this season, respectively. How much of the Leafs’ overall possession issues were due to their defensive game not snuffing out the opposition and turning the puck up ice vs. their forwards not grinding for possession enough is a fair debate. Both sides are culpable to some degree.
The Leafs definitely made progress defensively and lowered their goals against. I also thought a lot about Sheldon Keefe’s parting words, “When teams play the Leafs, they set up the game for the Leafs to beat themselves.” The Leafs definitely got that out of their game by and large this season. They didn’t fritter away many games with silly defensive lapses and generally made opponents work to earn offense against them. There was improvement.
To take it to the next level, though, the Leafs need to build more layers on top of their defensive play to actually possess the puck more and tilt the ice the other way rather than simply packing the house, blocking a ton of shots, and boxing out the net.
And then there was the penalty kill. It did improve nominally, jumping from 23rd to 17th overall, but as a unit, it felt like they underachieved. 17th is essentially dead average, and the Leafs employed several really good penalty killers compared to the previous year — namely Chris Tanev, and eventually Brandon Carlo and Scott Laughton. Plus, the Leafs received way better goaltending than in 2023-24.
There was also the angle of Lambert constantly deploying Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner shorthanded. Did they really need to be first and third on the team in shorthanded time on ice at forward — especially an at-times clearly injured Matthews? All to finish 17th in the league? The penalty kill was legitimately good in the playoffs at 81.6 percent, so there was some redemption there.
Ultimately, things could have been much worse on defense and the penalty kill (and were worse in prior seasons). Lambert deserves some recognition for that. There was also a lot of meat left on the bone, so we’ll see if the Leafs can hire a replacement who can build on what Lambert did well and take it to the next level.
Pontus Holmberg’s Future (C vs. W)
Last week, Brad Treliving said a lot of things in a 50-minute press conference, followed by an informal scrum. One little note that caught my eye concerned Pontus Holmberg:
“Pontus sort of bounced around. We have to determine if he is a center or a winger and what that contract looks like. I like the kid. He has some heaviness. He doesn’t get pushed out of heavy games in the playoffs.”
My emphasis here is on “we have to determine if he is a center or a winger.” They also need to define his role; he bounced around a lot — which is a positive in one sense — but he wasn’t great at any one thing.
Holmberg played more with William Nylander than any other Leafs forward at five-on-five, which is great for Holmberg but not so much for Nylander when Holmberg scored seven goals and 19 points in 68 games. Not to nitpick too much, but of Holmberg’s seven goals, three were empty-netters and one was an own goal by Jordan Staal.
Holmberg is a useful player — one of the few forwards on the team who actually grinds pucks on the wall and attempts to cycle. His work ethic is the main reason he led the team in drawn penalties, as he owns a good motor and makes second and third efforts on pucks. However, he doesn’t possess the shot to pose a threat, holding back his overall game.
It’s interesting that the Leafs would potentially even consider Holmberg a center at this point, considering he rarely played there down the stretch and through the playoffs. Auston Matthews and Scott Laughton are already in the fold, and so are Max Domi and David Kampf. It’s clear that Kampf should be on the outs after he played one playoff game; if they trade Kampf and move Holmberg to 4C, it could make sense. Otherwise, it’s hard to assess the situation and suggest Holmberg should play up the lineup as center.
Personally, I view Holmberg as a winger; his best attribute is his ability to work the walls, and he can’t do it as much at center. However, if the Leafs see him as a center, they are potentially looking at Matthews – ____ – Laughton – Holmberg down the middle next season. Something to keep an eye on.
Calle Jarnkrok, and selling low
Brad Treliving also noted that Calle Jarnkrok’s season was essentially a write-off after he missed the first 60-odd games of the season before returning for 19 regular-season games (seven points). In the playoffs, he played in 12 of the team’s 14 games and tallied just one assist, a secondary helper in the first period of Game 1. The lack of playoff production has been a trend for Jarnkrok, though, as he’s played 30 playoff games for the Leafs and has just one goal (it actually came in his first playoff game as a Leaf in a blowout win for Tampa). I get the frustration, and that’s why some readers aren’t going to like what’s coming next:
The Leafs can’t sell low all the time.
Short of pulling off some massive trade, re-signing Mitch Marner, or spending huge dollars in free agency (which is rarely a good idea, for the record), the Leafs will be flush with cap space. They likely don’t need to punt players to make cap room. If they did, that’s one thing, but otherwise, some actual asset management needs to take place in Toronto at some point.
Jarnkrok played at a 30-point pace after his injury and is a useful veteran who is a really good penalty killer. Brandon Tanev was traded at the last deadline for a second-round pick after he tallied 17 points in 60 games for the Kraken (a low pace). So were Anthony Beauvillier and Gustav Nyquist. All those players produced at a lower rate, and Jarnkrok is arguably the best penalty killer in that group — which is an asset. Luke Kunin even netted a fourth-round pick!
This is not to suggest I wouldn’t trade Jarnkrok — I’d absolutely be looking to move him — but not for a fourth or fifth-rounder. Even a third wouldn’t really represent good value, unless the Leafs think his health is completely shot with no chance of bouncing back after a healthy offseason (that would seem unlikely, but player health is always the great unknown on our side of the equation). It’s easy to envision Jarnkrok bouncing back to a double-digit goal scorer with some special-teams utility.
That doesn’t mean Jarnkrok will suddenly become productive in the playoffs, but he brings real value as a steady veteran.
Look at the Leafs’ draft capital over the next three years (it’s terrible):
They can’t afford to constantly sell low on players while looking to buy high at the deadline or in free agency (Scott Laughton, Brandon Carlo, the Sam Bennett sweepstakes, etc.). It makes for bad asset management.
Kampf is a different story. He’s signed for two more years, has clearly fallen out of favour, and is paid more. But Jarnkrok has some real value, and the Leafs aren’t in a position to rid themselves of useful players without any care for whether they’re fetching fair value in return.
Easton Cowan’s development
Congrats to Easton Cowan and the London Knights on completing their revenge tour and winning the Memorial Cup.
For the second straight year, Cowan led the OHL in playoff scoring, following a bit of a disappointing season overall. His production dropped, he got rocked on a clean hit that injured him, and he struggled in the World Juniors (which might have been partly as a result of that hit). At the end of the day, though, he won it all.
It’s really difficult to evaluate a player in Cowan’s situation, a 19/20-year-old sent back in his draft +2 season after he already dominated the league. He was clearly too good for the OHL last season, but he had to return again. It’s a shame that the college rule wasn’t in place yet because he’s the exact type of player who would have benefited from it. College hockey would have been a much more difficult challenge, and Cowan wouldn’t get away with the same things he can against 16/17-year-olds.
Last year, I thought Cowan would make a real push to make the team after a dominant OHL run. In the preseason, though, it was quickly apparent that he wasn’t even close to ready, as a lot of junior habits needed ironing out (shifts are too long, stick checks, not playing direct hockey, trying to pass through too many layers, etc.). It is what most players fresh out of junior must sort out. Craig Berube alluded to it in preseason, and while Cowan clearly took strides this season, it’s hard to really work on those areas in his situation. His London team went 55-11-2 with the best goals for and best goals against in the league. They were a certified wagon — which is fun, but it’s not the ideal environment to learn and be challenged.
I won’t pretend I saw every game Cowan played this season or tracked him carefully, but between those preseason games, his world juniors, the odd regular-season game, the OHL playoffs, and the Memorial Cup, I watched around 20 games. It’s hard for him when he’s so much better than the other players. The one time he genuinely wasn’t was in the World Juniors, where he really struggled.
Perhaps Cowan has a great offseason and comes to camp as a pleasant surprise. That would be a great development for the Leafs. Most young players, though, need AHL time. A player who could do whatever he wanted in the OHL for two years is usually one who should sort out his game at the pro level in the American League — especially when it’s the Toronto Maple Leafs and everyone scrutinizes the kid’s every shift in the NHL. If I were Leafs brass, I’d focus on ensuring he has quality support in the AHL, and if he plays productive, consistent hockey while adjusting to the pro game, it will only be a matter of time.
An earlier jump to the big leagues should be considered a bonus, as tempting and fun as it might be to think otherwise.
A Veteran’s League
The Leafs entered the 2024-25 season with the seventh-oldest roster in the league before adding Scott Laughton and Brandon Carlo. An older roster can bring about some concerns, but if we look around the NHL, the “older teams” are back.
The 2024 Cup champion Florida Panthers entered last season with the oldest roster in the league. This season, the Edmonton Oilers went into the season with the league’s oldest roster. This will mark the sixth straight season that the Cup-winning team was an average age of 27+, while the average age of an NHLer this season was 28.3. Each team in the final has one regular under the age of 25 playing right now: Anton Lundell and Vasi Podkolzin (Evan Bouchard is turning 26 in October).
When the salary cap arrived after the 2004-05 lockout, some generational rookies broke into the league and lit it up. Teams went young, and we saw several young stars experience near instant success: Ryan Getzlaf, Corey Perry, Sidney Crosby, Patrick Kane, Jonathan Toews, Drew Doughty, and Anze Kopitar were all stars who won Cups early in their careers. It was not normal, and if anything, we’re now seeing young players struggle in the league.
San Jose was terrible this season with Macklin Celebrini and Will Smith. Chicago is a mess with Connor Bedard. The Habs are on the upswing, but I don’t think you’d rate Juraj Slafkovsky in the top five reasons why. Buffalo has Owen Power and Rasmus Dahlin and still hasn’t sniffed playoff action. Alexis Lafrenière is possibly on the trading block. Jack Hughes and Nico Hischier have accomplished just about nothing in a mediocre Metro Division (Hischier has made the playoffs three times in eight seasons and lost in five games in two of those postseason appearances).
Those are the first overall picks since Auston Matthews, who also hasn’t accomplished anything in the postseason.
These young players simply aren’t walking into the league and driving team success anymore. It hasn’t happened for a really long time. Connor McDavid might win his first Cup this year, and he was drafted first overall the year before Matthews. Aaron Ekblad, drafted first overall the season before McDavid, won his first Cup last spring. Before Ekblad, Nathan MacKinnon was drafted first overall in 2013 and won his Cup in 2022. That’s how long it’s generally taking, and in the aforementioned cohort, there are true generational players compared to some of the first overall picks we’ve seen of late.
With the cap rising, teams around the league will be allocating more money to veterans, and we will see far less of teams squeezing out veterans for players on ELCs. Franchises will line up this summer for free agents such as Brock Boeser, Mikael Granlund, Matt Duchene, and so on.
The Leafs should still invest and promote youth like every other team, but the NHL is trending toward older players, especially when the goal is to win the Cup — and the Leafs are squarely in that company.
