Game 52 Scoring Chances: Predators 4 vs. Maple Leafs 3

The Leafs had a solid opening period at even strength, but were undone by special teams, as Nashville scored shorthanded and on the power-play to consign Toronto to another first period deficit.

Toronto were able to bounce back in the second period, dominating the chances, 9-3 at ES, and cutting down the lead. The Leafs stayed on that roll early in the third, and for once in this long slump, were rewarded, scoring twice in a minute. However, Nashville were back tied only four minutes later, and after the Predators went back ahead Toronto didn’t have much of a response. In fact, their only chances in the last ten minutes of the game came short-handed, with a post and Carter Hutton’s spectacular save. The Leafs had pressure with the extra man in the final minute, but didn’t actually manage to get a shot through to the Nashville goal, as the Predator D put on a great shot-blocking exhibition.

Status	Overall			Even Strength			ES Close
Team	TOR	NSH	%	TOR	NSH	%	TOR	NSH	%
1	5	5	50.0%	4	4	50.0%	4	3	57.1%
2	10	3	76.9%	9	3	75.0%	6	1	85.7%
3	7	4	63.6%	5	3	62.5%	3	1	75.0%
Total	22	12	64.7%	18	10	64.3%	13	5	72.2%

The special teams really did kill the Leafs, as they were the better team at ES, including in the second period, when they really carried the play.

Club	St	P	Time	TSc	Osc	Note	Toronto						Nashville
NSH	ES	1	19:03	0	0	Neal from faceoff	24	47	71	12	55	45	12	33	18	3	64	30
NSH	ES	1	18:09	0	0	Jarnkrok from Bourque	24	47	71	44	46	45	7	19	57	14	20	30
TOR	ES	1	16:41	0	0	Lupul wraparound wide	26	43	19	4	51	45	15	63	9	6	59	30
TOR	ES	1	14:20	0	0	Kadri from Lupul	43	18	19	44	51	45	63	9	3	6	64	30
TOR	ES	1	12:00	0	0	Bozak from Kessel	42	81	21	44	46	45	28	24	41	6	59	30
TOR	ES	1	10:40	0	0	Lupul drives	26	43	19	4	51	45	15	63	9	14	20	30
NSH	PP	1	08:08	0	0	GOAL! Jones drives	43	19	71	4	51	45	12	19	3	14	30	-
TOR	PP	1	07:33	0	1	Van Riemsdyk from Rielly	24	42	81	21	44	45	7	57	6	59	30	-
NSH	ES	1	06:54	0	1	Volchenkov wide from loose puck	25	81	21	44	55	45	33	63	18	14	20	30
NSH	ES	1	01:42	0	2	Neal from faceoff	24	47	71	4	51	45	12	33	18	3	64	30
NSH	ES	2	18:21	0	2	Weber wide from Forsberg	24	47	71	12	55	45	15	63	9	6	59	30
TOR	ES	2	17:43	0	2	Kadri from Panik	43	18	20	44	46	45	15	33	63	6	59	30
TOR	ES	2	17:33	0	2	Booth wraparound	43	18	20	44	46	45	12	33	18	14	20	30
NSH	ES	2	14:32	0	2	Ribeiro from Smith	24	47	71	12	55	45	15	63	9	14	20	30
TOR	ES	2	12:11	0	2	GOAL! Winnik from Santorelli	25	26	19	4	51	45	15	63	9	14	59	30
TOR	ES	2	08:23	1	2	Holland from loose puck	24	47	71	4	51	45	7	19	57	14	20	30
TOR	ES	2	06:59	1	2	Booth from Kadri	26	43	20	44	46	45	33	63	18	3	64	30
TOR	ES	2	05:56	1	2	Booth from loose puck	43	18	20	4	51	45	15	63	9	6	59	30
TOR	PP	2	05:43	1	2	Van Riemsdyk from Bozak	42	81	21	4	44	45	12	19	6	59	30	-
TOR	ES	2	03:34	1	2	Kadri from Santorelli	25	43	19	46	55	45	12	19	28	6	59	30
TOR	ES	2	02:48	1	2	Panik deflects Gardiner shot wide	24	18	20	4	51	45	33	63	18	3	64	30
TOR	ES	2	01:52	1	2	Clarkson from Rielly	24	47	71	44	46	45	12	15	9	14	20	30
NSH	ES	2	01:08	1	2	Cullen drives	25	26	19	12	55	45	7	19	57	6	59	30
TOR	ES	3	17:42	1	2	Booth drives	43	18	20	4	51	34	28	24	41	6	20	30
TOR	ES	3	17:41	1	2	GOAL! Kadri from rebound of Booth shot	43	18	20	4	51	34	28	24	41	6	20	30
TOR	ES	3	17:04	2	2	GOAL! Santorelli drives	25	26	19	44	46	34	7	19	57	14	20	30
NSH	ES	3	15:16	3	2	Wilson wide from loose puck	24	47	71	4	51	45	12	33	18	14	20	30
NSH	ES	3	13:05	3	2	GOAL! Fisher from Wilson	42	81	21	4	51	45	12	33	18	3	14	30
TOR	ES	3	12:16	3	3	Booth drives	43	18	20	44	46	45	7	19	57	3	64	30
TOR	ES	3	10:13	3	3	Lupul post from Winnik	26	43	19	12	55	45	15	63	9	20	64	30
NSH	ES	3	08:42	3	3	GOAL! Wilson from loose puck	43	18	20	44	46	45	12	33	18	14	20	30
TOR	SH	3	03:08	3	4	Winnik post from Bozak	26	42	12	44	45	-	15	33	63	3	14	30
TOR	SH	3	03:01	3	4	Winnik deflects Rielly shot	26	42	12	44	45	-	15	33	63	3	14	30
NSH	SH	3	01:59	3	4	Neal from Forsberg	25	20	4	55	45	-	12	9	18	6	59	30

Player-by Player data:

Player	Overall				Even Strength				ES Close
	For	Against	Diff	TOI	For	Against	Diff	TOI	For	Against	Diff
Franson	9	5	4	23:58	8	3	5	17:59	5	0	5
Robidas	3	4	-1	14:59	1	4	-3	11:08	1	2	-1
Panik	8	1	7	12:45	8	1	7	11:36	4	1	3
Lupul	7	2	5	15:19	7	1	6	12:17	6	1	5
Booth	8	2	6	13:04	8	1	7	10:42	4	1	3
Van Riemsdyk	3	2	1	18:52	1	2	-1	13:54	1	1	0
Holland	4	6	-2	12:50	3	6	-3	09:51	3	2	1
Santorelli	3	3	0	13:09	3	2	1	11:00	2	2	0
Winnik	8	1	7	15:06	6	1	5	11:23	5	1	4
Bozak	5	1	4	17:11	1	1	0	11:37	1	0	1
Kadri	12	2	10	19:01	12	1	11	14:58	8	1	7
Rielly	12	3	9	23:07	8	3	5	17:01	6	3	3
Polak	8	2	6	20:19	8	2	6	16:18	6	2	4
Komarov	2	6	-4	11:53	2	6	-4	09:22	2	2	0
Gardiner	9	4	5	20:09	9	3	6	17:47	6	0	6
Holzer	2	6	-4	14:56	2	5	-3	12:44	2	3	-1
Clarkson	2	7	-5	10:13	2	6	-4	09:12	2	2	0
Kessel	3	2	1	18:31	1	2	-1	13:33	1	1	0
Bernier	19	12	7	53:29	15	10	5	41:44	12	5	7
Reimer	3	0	3	05:24	3	0	3	03:24	1	0	1

Nazem Kadri had an excellent game in chances, driving most of the Leafs‘ offense. He finished a game-best +7 at ES Close, and was a +11 at ES Overall. No one else up front quite reached those levels, but Joffrey Lupul, David Booth, Richard Panik and Daniel Winnik all finished at +5 or better at ES, and were each on for only a single Predator ES chance. Unfortunately, this didn’t extend to the top line, which were shut down by Nashville, on for just one ES chance. The benefit for Kessel, JVR and Bozak was that they weren’t defensively suspect either, finishing at even. Komarov, Holland and Clarkson were used in a defensive role, and their numbers reflect that, as all three finished near even at ES Close, but were the team’s lowest at ES overall.

Jake Gardiner and Cody Franson got the easiest zone starts on the defence, and did well with them, both finishing substantially in the positive, and neither of them on for a Predators chance at ES Close. While Morgan Rielly and Roman Polak didn’t have as unblemished a record, their performance was also impressive, as despite tougher starts they both finished clearly in the positive as well. The only pairing to buck the trend was Holzer and the returning Robidas, who were the only Leaf players to finish in the negative at ES Close. They did have the toughest zone starts, which goes someway to explaining those results.

Cumulative numbers this season:

Overall	Pos	#	Even Strength				ES Close
			For	Against	%	TOI	For	Against	%
Winnik	F	50	187	196	48.8%	13:01	105	89	54.1%
Kadri	F	50	253	260	49.3%	14:47	153	147	51.0%
Komarov	F	33	106	100	51.5%	12:05	56	55	50.5%
Franson	D	50	274	286	48.9%	16:07	163	161	50.3%
Clarkson	F	52	192	207	48.1%	12:14	100	107	48.3%
Lupul	F	29	133	153	46.5%	13:36	75	83	47.5%
Bernier	G	37	506	586	46.3%	45:07	312	347	47.3%
Gardiner	D	49	234	264	47.0%	17:16	130	147	46.9%
Phaneuf	D	48	267	317	45.7%	17:05	160	183	46.6%
Panik	F	46	103	108	48.8%	09:02	60	69	46.5%
Rielly	D	51	270	309	46.6%	16:19	145	167	46.5%
Polak	D	42	207	260	44.3%	17:51	125	144	46.5%
Kessel	F	52	276	328	45.7%	15:13	164	197	45.4%
Bozak	F	52	262	302	46.5%	15:03	143	175	45.0%
Santorelli	F	52	195	233	45.6%	13:41	104	130	44.4%
Smith	F	35	70	84	45.5%	08:31	39	52	42.9%
Van Riemsdyk	F	52	248	332	42.8%	15:02	148	198	42.8%
Reimer	G	21	252	316	44.4%	41:20	119	168	41.5%
Holland	F	42	112	168	40.0%	11:38	60	85	41.4%
Robidas	D	39	146	200	42.2%	15:01	73	120	37.8%
Booth	F	29	50	75	40.0%	08:53	29	48	37.7%
Holzer	D	23	86	123	41.1%	15:16	48	81	37.2%

Kadri’s game gets him up over 50% at ES Close this season, joining Winnik and Komarov as the only Leafs to better that mark at this point. Trading Kadri seems like it would be the biggest mistake the Leafs could make. He’s far from a perfect player, but for the last couple of years has consistently been their best producing forward at ES, and his best years are likely still ahead of him. Robidas also drew back in; he’s been down at the bottom of the table most of the season. In comparison, Percy has had very similar numbers, and Granberg, in his short and protected stint, was around 43% at ES Close. So neither of the young defencemen are an upgrade on Robidas, but they have the advantages in age and contract.