The Maple Leafs are hoping the 12th time is the charm in playoff closeout opportunities as they attempt to clinch the series in Game 6 in Tampa Bay for the second consecutive spring (7:00 p.m. EST, Sportsnet/CBC/TBS).
The Leafs have the potentially valuable recent experience of finding ways to win two road games in this series, but the biggest key tonight is matching Tampa’s level of urgency and desperation from the drop of the puck so as to not trail in the game for once.
As impressive as Toronto’s comeback pushes have been, playing catch-up hockey caught up to them in Game 5, and they’ve now trailed for 166 minutes in the series (they’ve led for just 69 minutes total and have been tied for 88 minutes).
Frankly, when we consider stats like the ones above — especially in combination with the unflattering underlying five-on-five metrics — the team should probably take the mindset that this is less of a situation where Game 5 was a blown closeout opportunity and more that they’re still quite fortunate to be sitting here with the opportunity to end the series up 3-2 given the balance of the even-strength play.
It’s hard to forget the memories of the Montreal series of 2021 and how much it felt like that series ended once the Habs tied it up at 3-3 in Game 6. The Leafs looked shell-shocked for most of Game 7. It’s a scenario the Leafs do not want to explore again this time around. But it’s also worth noting this is not the same situation as 2021 when the Leafs were giving life to an inferior opponent they had largely outplayed over the first four games.
In this case, the Leafs need to be appreciably better than they have been in the majority of the first five games to close this Tampa team out. The time is now to play one of their most complete games of the season.
Lineup Notes
As the Leafs seek to ameliorate their issues exiting their zone quickly and efficiently enough against the Tampa forecheck, a personnel change may be in store on the blue line.
Sheldon Keefe is holding his cards tight to his chest until game time, but Timothy Liljegren may play his first game in 16 days in place of Justin Holl. The more experienced Erik Gustafsson remains an option as well, but the handedness dynamic would be thrown for a loop if the Leafs were to insert Gustafsson’s left shot.
Justin Holl is taking part in Leafs optional skate
He usually stays off the ice when he’s playing @TSN_Edge
— Mark Masters (@markhmasters) April 29, 2023
Liljegren has a good regular-season body of work next to Mark Giordano that provides some comfort if the Leafs choose to pair the two, but the challenge of being thrown in cold into a series this intense is clearly a unique set of circumstances, particularly knowing Giordano has not been his usual stabilizing presence in this series.
If this scenario does indeed play out, Keefe may seek to protect this pairing a little bit in the early going depending on how the game settles in collectively and individually, which could mean a few more difficult minutes for the likes of Rielly-Schenn and Brodie-McCabe.
Odds are Michael Bunting will return to the fold up front, with Sam Lafferty (minus three, one assist, five shots on goal, 36% xGF) or Zach Aston-Reese (minus-two, one goal, three shots on goal, 34.6% xGF, two giveaways for goals against) the most likely candidates to sit.
Whether Bunting slots into a bottom-six line or returns to his top-line spot remains to be seen, but it’s worth noting that Calle Järnkrok has just four shots on goal in his last four games spent up the lineup (one assist) and has not been much of a factor offensively in those games.
The friction is that the Leafs haven’t really found a good fit for Järnkrok in the bottom six all season long when they’ve tried him in various third-line combinations. Ryan O’Reilly centering the third line does give them a few more credible options, be it Bunting or Jarnkork on ROR’s wing, rather than the awkward third line of Kerfoot – Acciari – Jarnkork that started Game 1.
Of course, Keefe running 11/7 can’t be totally ruled out, either, at this point in the day. We’ll only know for sure at puck drop.
Game Day Quotes
Sheldon Keefe on the keys to not allowing the moment to become too big for the team:
Being on the road helps with that. There is far less going on when you are on the road.
The team itself stays together. All of the players had dinner together last night all in the same place as we did the previous time that we came out here to Tampa for each of the nights here. In my time in this role, it is the first time that has ever happened where the team has always stayed together every night.
That just keeps guys collected in their thoughts, what they are doing, who is where, and who is doing what. It keeps us a cohesive group. The players have really led the way in that department being on the road. There is far less happening outside of what really matters.
When you are in these moments dealing with the different pressures and things that come with a playoff series, the more you can keep it internal in terms of what really matters and is required of the team, the better.
Being on the road is an advantage in that sense right now. It just allows the team to pull together much closer here. We know this is the hardest one to get. The last one finishing the deal is not an easy thing to do.
Keefe on whether the Leafs have been able to give Tampa their best game yet:
Certainly, Game 2 would be that. In the second and third periods of Game 4, I thought we did a lot of good things there. Certainly, it has been too long since we have had that. Between 2 and 6 here tonight, we need to have a complete game.
Keefe on what has prevented the team from playing its best game more often in the series:
There is a significant impediment on the other side. They have played very well. It is just a matter of us finding our way through that. At times, we have done a good job.
We did a good job at various times in this building. Obviously, we got good results, but I think we have started games well in this building. Even in Game 4, we came out of it down 2-0 at the end of the first period, but we started that game well in the first 10 minutes. We are going to need that type of start again today.
In Game 3, we started well. We were up 2-1. We scored first. That is the type of stuff you are looking to accomplish on the road.
We expect it to be another very close and very hard-fought type of game tonight. We want to get on the right side of it.
Keefe on how Bunting has handled the adversity of his suspension and healthy scratch:
I think he has been great. From the disappointment of getting suspended first of all — and being unavailable and the work that he has put in through that — to how he handled when I told him he was not going to be a part of the lineup coming back, I think he recognizes the situation he and the team are in. He has stayed positive and continued to do the work to be ready if called on.
Keefe on the success of road teams in the playoffs and in this series so far:
One of the things that happens in the regular season is home and road splits. They don’t tell a true story in the regular season. In the playoffs, so much of what happens with road trips and homestands is all equal. Everyone is on the exact same schedule for the most part.
The team with home-ice advantage maybe travels a little bit less early in the series, but you are on the same playing field in terms of energy level and schedules. I think that variance in the regular season is what oftentimes can dictate what happens in home and road splits. All of that is kind of thrown out in the playoffs.
I think that is a big part of it. Sometimes, you are playing at home, and you just happen to get a team that is on the road a lot or dealing with a bunch of injuries that comes in. All of these kinds of things seem to equal themselves out in the playoffs. The teams just play hockey.
Keefe on the Leafs’ ability to keep the Point line quiet at even strength so far in the series:
I think we have done a good job in terms of trying to limit their speed and opportunities through the neutral zone, but they have had their looks. We have gotten saves at good times and all of that kind of stuff.
We don’t focus too much on those kinds of things. In terms of whether you have done a good job or you haven’t, you just have to keep doing the things that we need to do, which is to manage the puck well, manage the speed, have numbers coming back, and close quickly.
They are so dangerous and can make a play at any time. They’re dangerous shooters who can score in various ways. We just have to continue to stay with it, but over the course of a series, some nights, it is going to be their best players. Some nights it is going to be the depth guys.
On both teams, there have been times when the top guys have carried the load and there have been times when the depth guys have chipped in.
Luke Schenn on whether the team has played its best yet in the series:
I think we have more to give for sure. I think there have been times when we have played [well] if you look at some third periods where guys have skated well, moved the puck well, and made some plays. To sit here and say we have done it for an entire game — no, I don’t think that is the case.
Ryan O’Reilly on whether the best approach is to treat it like any other game or to lean into the moment:
I think it is leaning into it. It is about enjoying it. We have an opportunity here. It is a great team here that we can put away and do it in their building, too. We have found ways to win here. There is no reason why we can’t do it again tonight.
ROR on whether the team has played its best hockey yet:
Definitely not. At times, we have done some good things, but we haven’t been consistent with it the way we would like for the full 60. The momentum shifts at different times, but for us, we are looking for more of a complete game. If we can do that, it is going to help us push them out.
ROR on why Tampa was able to establish their forecheck better than the Leafs were in Game 5:
In general, just in their overall game, they had a little more urgency and desperation. They are fighting for their lives. We were maybe a little cautious and a little safe at times.
That is over. They found a way to win that one. The focus shifts to here. For sure, we will need a better forecheck tonight if we are going to have better looks offensively.
Jon Cooper on the young players on his roster handling the pressure of the postseason:
I think everybody has passed the test. I don’t think this moment has been too big for anybody. I think that is why we are in this situation — not that it is ideal that we are down 3-2, but we are in the playoffs and we won a big game on the road facing elimination.
All of these kids have passed the test. That is probably why we are still alive.
Cooper on his trust in Andrei Vasilevskiy in elimination games:
When games are on the line, he just delivers time and time again. As series go on and they progress, he gets better, better, and better.
There is a balance with him between rest and play. People say in the regular season, “You’re playing him too much.” That is when he is at his best.
When you get to Game 5, 6, or 7 and he is really rolling, it is because he is in a rhythm of a series. I never worry about him.
Cooper on whether there are adjustments needed from the Point line to produce more at five-on-five:
There are some tweaks, but in the end, they are all elite players. When you are in a series and the microscope is on you and people feel like, “Why aren’t they scoring as much…” Point has four points in five games, and if he kept that up over a full season, it would be a hell of a year. I look at their compete and if they are giving themselves chances to score.
In one of the games, we had them at basically a combined 17 chances for and zero against. They just didn’t score. If you keep putting yourselves in those positions, you are eventually going to score.
Some of those guys can be streaky. I have seen Stammer score 20 goals in 10 games. I have seen him go goalless in 10 games. He is an elite scorer. One of the ones he had in the slot went off the mask. Maybe tonight it goes in the top corner. He keeps getting these chances.
Kuch gets the chances. Point’s goes off the post. If that goes in, it is a hell of a goal and Brayden Point is being Brayden Point.
I don’t worry about those guys. They’re getting their looks. They just haven’t gone in yet. We are still alive in the series, and they haven’t gone in. They are going to go in.
Toronto Maple Leafs Projected Lines
Forwards
#23 Matthew Knies – #34 Auston Matthews – #88 William Nylander
#19 Calle Järnkrok – #91 John Tavares – #16 Mitch Marner
#58 Michael Bunting – #90 Ryan O’Reilly – #52 Noel Acciari
#15 Alex Kerfoot – #64 David Kämpf
Defensemen
#22 Jake McCabe – #78 TJ Brodie
#44 Morgan Rielly – #2 Luke Schenn
#55 Mark Giordano – #37 Timothy Liljegren
#56 Erik Gustafsson
Goaltenders
Starter: #35 Ilya Samsonov
#60 Joseph Woll
Scratched: Justin Holl, Sam Lafferty, Zach Aston-Reese, Wayne Simmonds
Injured: Matt Murray, Nick Robertson, Jake Muzzin
Tampa Bay Lightning Projected Lines
Forwards
#91 Steven Stamkos – #21 Brayden Point – #86 Nikita Kucherov
#38 Brandon Hagel – #71 Anthony Cirelli – #17 Alex Killorn
#79 Ross Colton – #20 Nick Paul – #23 Michael Eyssimont
#14 Patrick Maroon – #41 Pierre-Édouard Bellemare – #10 Corey Perry
Defensemen
#77 Victor Hedman – #48 Nicklaus Perbix
#98 Mikhail Sergachev – #43 Darren Raddysh
#28 Ian Cole – #24 Zach Bogosian
Goaltenders
Starter: #88 Andrei Vasilevskiy
#1 Brian Elliott
Extra: Tanner Jeannot, Haydn Fleury
Injured: Erik Cernak
