Auston Matthews makes his much-anticipated return to the lineup as the Maple Leafs and Lightning, who are just two points apart in the Atlantic Divison through 22 games, play their second matchup of the four-game season series tonight in Tampa (7:00 p.m. EST, Sportsnet/CBC).
The Lightning are coming off an overtime win in Nashville yesterday in which they ran 11 forwards/seven defensemen due to the absence of noted Leaf killer Nick Paul, and they also were without Nikita Kucherov and Anthony Cirelli for chunks of the game (both later returned). That led to Brayden Point, Jake Guentzel, and Brandon Hagel playing over 22 minutes apiece up front. It also means the Lightning have several game-time decisions tonight, probably including Kucherov and Cirelli.
The Leafs‘ meanwhile, are plenty rested and are finally getting their 69-goal-scoring captain back alongside his regular LWer, Matthew Knies, which adds a pair of much-needed even-strength scoring threats back to the Toronto lineup. Unfortunately, Bobby McMann exits the lineup at the same time due to a LBI, which means Pontus Holmberg — who has one goal in 20 games, and it was an empty netter — joins John Tavares’ line with Mitch Marner. It’s a new look to the top six, and it remains to be seen how long Craig Berube stays away from his familiar Knies – Matthews – Marner line — which has out-scored the opposition 9-5 and owned 61% of the expected goals in 13 games together — if the Leafs‘ five-on-five scoring continues to run dry tonight.
Down the lineup, the Leafs are dropping Alex Steeves (waiver exempt as an emergency recall, returned to the Marlies) from the fourth line to accommodate the return of Matthews and Knies, which would mean rookies Nikita Grebenkin and Fraser Minten remain in the bottom six, as well as Alex Nylander, as the Leafs search for answers with their depth scoring at five-on-five; only Steven Lorentz (three goals in 22 games) has more than one goal this season among the current bottom-six group.
In net, Joseph Woll returns to the crease riding an individual four-game winning streak in which he’s posted a .943 save percentage and one shutout. Andrei Vasilevskiy will start at the opposite end after Jonas Johansson picked up the win for Tampa in Nashville yesterday. Vasileveskiy was pulled for the first and only time this season in the Leafs‘ 5-2 win over the Lightning in October after conceding four goals on 14 shots before the midway mark of the second period — something of a statement win for the Maple Leafs, and one the Lightning will likely want to respond to:
Game Day Quotes
Craig Berube on the team’s success in their 5-2 win vs. Tampa in October:
I thought we did a real good job checking in that game, creating some turnovers, and capitalizing on some odd-man rushes. William Nylander walked in and scored on a 2-on-1. He had another 2-on-1 where he passed it. I thought we did a good job in the neutral zone of creating some offense from our checking and transition game.
It was a good game. Both teams competed really hard. Our PK had to be good. All around, it was a pretty solid game by us.
We have to do the same tonight. We have to be disciplined; they have a really good power play, as we all know. It will be key to be disciplined, but we need to be physical.
Berube on Matthew Knies’ return to the top power-play unit:
Big guy, and he does a good job there. If you look at Hyman on Edmonton — he is looking at some of the stuff Hyman does. He is that type of guy. You love the size and the strength there, too. Big body, and he has a good stick for tipping pucks in and stuff like that. He is only going to get better over time and become a really good net-front guy on the power play.
Lightning head coach Jon Cooper on the return of Auston Matthews:
He has missed a bit, right? Hopefully, he is rusty. That is all I can ask.
You talk about gifted players and the ability to take over a game. He is one of those kids.
I kind of wish he was coming back for the next game, but part of me is always like, “I like seeing these guys play.”
If we have a chance to beat the Leafs, we may as well beat the Leafs when they have their best lineup in. We’re not trying to take a freebie.
I am glad he is back. He is good for this league.
Cooper on the difference in Mitch Marner’s game from when he coached him at the 2017 World Championships after Marner’s rookie NHL season:
Probably confidence and swag. He has always had it, but you see it in how he plays.
I am a massive Mitch Marner fan, having been able to coach him in 2017. He has always had it in him, but I think he has let it out in a little bit more — in a good way.
He is not showing off. He does everything with a purpose. He really thinks the game. It’s amazing how he thinks it. It is elite.
Cooper on Andrei Vasilevskiy’s off night versus the Leafs back on Oct. 21 (a 5-2 Leafs win):
Vasi is our starter. He plays 60+ games a year. I don’t care if you are Vasilevskiy or if you go through the top 10 goalies in the league; guys have off nights in this league. The difference between the good ones and the great ones is that the great ones don’t have many off nights. That has been a staple of Vasilevskiy’s career.
Head-to-Head Stats: Maple Leafs vs. Lightning
In the 2024-25 regular season statistics, Tampa Bay holds the advantage in four out of five offensive categories and three out of five defensive categories.
Toronto Maple Leafs Projected Lines
Forwards
#23 Matthew Knies — #34 Auston Matthews — #88 William Nylander
#29 Pontus Holmberg — #91 John Tavares — #16 Mitch Marner
#89 Nick Robertson — #39 Fraser Minten — #18 Steven Lorentz
#71 Nikita Grebenkin — #24 Connor Dewar —#92 Alex Nylander
Defensemen
#22 Jake McCabe — #8 Chris Tanev
#44 Morgan Rielly — #95 Oliver Ekman-Larsson
#2 Simon Benoit — #25 Conor Timmins
Goaltenders
Starter: #60 Joseph Woll
#41 Anthony Stolarz
Extras: Jani Hakanpää, Philippe Myers
Suspended: Ryan Reaves (two games remaining)
Injured (IR): Max Domi, Bobby McMann
Injured (LTIR): Calle Jarnkrok, Dakota Mermis, Max Pacioretty, David Kampf
Tampa Bay Lightning Projected Lines
Forwards
#59 Jake Guentzel — #21 Brayden Point
#38 Brandon Hagel — #71 Anthony Cirelli — #93 Gage Goncalves
#28 Zemgus Girgensons — #11 Luke Glendening — #23 Michael Eyssimont
#73 Connor Sheary – #14 Conor Geekie — #13 Cam Atkinson
Defensemen
#77 Victor Hedman — #90 J.J. Moser
#27 Ryan McDonagh — #81 Erik Cernak
#78 Emil Lilleberg — #48 Nick Perbix
#43 Darren Raddysh
Goaltenders
Starter: #88 Andrei Vasilevskiy
#31 Jonas Johansson
Injured: Nick Paul, Mitchell Chaffe, Nikita Kucherov
