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The Maple Leafs did not break out efficiently enough, possess the puck enough, or sustain enough offensive-zone time in this 3-1 loss to a strong Capitals team.

When the Leafs win with their more deliberate defensive style this season, it’s all good and often perceived as predictive of playoff success. When they’re off their game and lose, it’s often done in a boring and forgettable fashion. The latter was the case on Friday night.

Your game in 10:

1.   To call the Leafs‘ start against the Capitals less than ideal is probably underselling things. While the score remained 0-0, Washington created numerous chances early on, particularly in scrambles around the net. Washington recorded the first five shots and racked up seven scoring chances on 13 shot attempts in the first seven minutes of the game before drawing a flimsy penalty to give them the game’s first power play.

We were expecting a push from the Capitals after the way the previous meeting ended—especially given their head coach’s comments afterward—but the Leafs did not appear ready to elevate their competitiveness after a couple of wins over weaker competition this week, and they struggled to break out cleanly to alleviate the early pressure.

2.   The teams traded early power plays, as shortly after the Capitals came up empty, William Nylander was sprung on a breakaway that generated a great chance and a penalty (that Nylander fairly argued should have resulted in a penalty shot to no avail). On the ensuing 5v4, the Leafs came about as close as they possibly could to opening the scoring, but the puck somehow stayed out.

Mitch Marner‘s quarterbacking from the top of the zone has been a major key to revitalizing the look and feel of the team’s power play; he’s been extremely effective surveying the zone and dissecting the PK structure from up top, opening seams with his lateral movement, and showing high-level vision to dish passes into productive areas where there are gaps in the PK coverage.

The teams traded penalties once more afterward. Pontus Holmberg was called for a trip, and John Carlson was called for interference shortly thereafter; Marner successfully sold an interference penalty by skating directly into Carlson and exaggerating the impact of the pick play.

The opening stanza concluded with the game still knotted at 0-0, which flattered the Leafs‘ first 10 minutes, but Toronto pushed back the other way and could’ve/should’ve grabbed the lead at the other end. It would’ve changed the complexion of this game if they could’ve cashed in.

3.   The deadlock didn’t last long into the second frame, as the Capitals opened the scoring only a minute in.

There appeared to be some confusion between Fraser Minten and Nick Robertson regarding the assignments/roles returning to the defensive zone, but it didn’t matter as Robertson ended up peeling to the wall in time as Connor Timmins rimmed the puck. Robertson failed to seal the wall/trap the puck, leading to a point shot from Matt Roy as Simon Benoit was caught in no man’s land with Nic Dowd alone in front, where he deflected the puck past Stolarz.

4.   The second period has often been a favourable one for the Leafs this season, but they continued to be out-possessed to the tune of 60/40 shot attempts in favour of the Capitals. Stolarz’s play and some sturdy structure defensively kept the Leafs right in it, though, and we know how hockey often works in cases where one team possesses the puck but doesn’t cash in. The offensive looks for the other team are often Grade-As.

Nylander got his second chance in alone of the game after disrupting the Capitals at their offensive blue line. He initially appeared to go for his preferred forehand-backhand-five-hole move, but he tried to elevate the puck back against the grain off his backhand this time and just missed the net.

Later in the period, Chris Tanev transformed into prime Erik Karlsson and delivered a stretch-pass missile up the middle to a streaking John Tavares, who finished a great play with a beautiful finish.

Even for someone who is famously a hockey-cliche-spouting automaton in the media, you could tell the Team Canada 4 Nations snub affected Tavares to some degree in his interview today. This one must’ve felt particularly good. 12 goals and 11 assists for 23 points in 25 games is an excellent start worthy of recognition.

5.   The rest of the second was fairly dull and low event, but Toronto created a couple of chances — the best one being a long-range Auston Matthews shot that glanced off the bar and out. At the other end, most of the Capitals’ offensive offerings came off of perimeter shots.

In the waning moments of the period, Nick Robertson took a cross-checking penalty, and it seemed to be the final straw for Craig Berube as Robertson played just 1:31 in the third period. More concerning than the penalty — which was borderline — was Robertson breaking on a potential 2v1 with Tavares and committing the cardinal sin of passing it right before the blue line, handcuffing Tavares as Robertson went offside.

This kind of game from Robertson could not have come at a worse time, with Max Pacioretty set to return and Max Domi not far behind him.

6.   The third period largely followed a similar low-event story. Through nine minutes, the most notable development was another penalty against Oliver Ekman-Larsson that left the Leafs bench furious; Berube rightly called out the official for two soft calls against OEL in the game.

Naturally, that same official was the reason the Capitals regained the lead with 10 minutes remaining. Matthews attempted to cycle the puck behind his own net to start the breakout, but the puck bounced off the official and out in front of the net. The subsequent scramble led to goal for Connor McMichael.

This was a terrible break — what was the ref doing there, exactly? — and bizarrely, it’s the second time in two games that the Leafs have seen a referee directly impact a scoring play (Marner hit the ref as he tried to shoot on an empty net vs. Nashville). At the same time, the Leafs didn’t really make their breaks tonight in the run of play.

7.   Through 50 minutes of the game, the Leafs generated just 1.51 expected goals over all situations (their dangerous power play in the first period is included in this number). Simply put, it’s not enough.

Washington recorded 3.0 in the same category by this point. Even before their flukey 2-1 goal off of a point-blank chance, Washington was winning the expected goals battle by roughly a full goal (2.5-1.51).

The team is getting healthier, which is a very welcome development as there is no doubt that the team’s bottom six is nothing approaching that of a contending team at the moment (nor should Holmberg ever be on a top-six line full-time). That makes it difficult to judge a game like this too harshly or meaningfully, as it’s inevitable over 82 games that the big four will not break through and finish with the same ruthless efficiency each and every night (and the officiating didn’t break the team’s way, to say the least). As good as the goaltending and general defensive play has been, the current bottom seven forwards don’t leave the big four + Knies with a lot of margin for error offensively.

8.   Further to the point above, with just over a minute to go, the Leafs worked the puck down low, where Tavares had a grade-A chance but couldn’t bury it (Charlie Lindgren got across for a great pad save in tight). On the rebound chance, it slid through the crease, and Matthew Knies had a shot blocked as the Capitals survived the late push.

20 seconds later, the Leafs didn’t secure possession off the faceoff, resulting in a clean breakout by Washington that ended up on the stick of Aliaksei Protas, who fired the puck into the empty net.

Credit where it is due: The Caps played an impressive road game tonight — heavier, more competitive, and more diligent defensively than the first game of the season series.

9.   One point of positivity tonight, in addition to the Leafs’ PK excellence and Stolarz’s play: Chris Tanev is not only continuing to play high-end defense but is recently chipping in much-needed offense-from-the-defense for the team at five-on-five. He’s up to four points in his last six games, including a big goal vs. Tampa Bay, a nice shot-for-tip in Tampa, and a beauty of a primary assist tonight.

This was an off night for most Leafs players, but you can set your clock to Tanev night in and night out. He’s delivered everything the team could possibly have asked for and more through 25 games.

10.   In terms of adjustments for tomorrow night, fresh legs will almost certainly enter the fold in the back-to-back in Pittsburgh.

On the backend, Philippe Myers‘ rough night moving the puck probably assures he makes way if Jake McCabe can return — and maybe even if McCabe doesn’t return, as Marshall Rifai is currently up with the team.

If Max Pacioretty returns, it will be interesting to see what direction Berube takes up front. Nikita Grebenkin isn’t playing nearly enough minutes for this stage of his development (less than eight minutes again tonight), so Grebenkin coming out, Holmberg moving down into the bottom six, keeping Knies-Matthews-Marner together, and re-uniting Pacioretty-Tavares-Nylander seems like a sensible call. But Robertson was also benched tonight and called out by his coach for “not having much going on.”

Robertson’s days as an everyday regular might well be numbered, barring a 2023-24 Bobby McMann-vs.-St-Louis style turnaround in very short order.

Game Flow: 5v5 Shot Attempts

Heat Map: 5v5 Shot Attempts

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