After beating the Buffalo Sabres, the Maple Leafs improved to 4-4-1 to start the season… matching their record through nine games last season.
They’ve posted some bad losses in this stretch, so this isn’t said to completely dismiss their play to date, but some perspective is important here.
For all the focus on the Leafs‘ top-line right-winger spot, they’ve scored five more goals through nine games than they did last year. The Leafs are tied for ninth in goals per game so far and are seventh in total five-on-five goals scored, and that’s with a 29th-ranked power play and Auston Matthews producing under a point-per-game to date.
The team could always do more offensively — and they need to get their line combinations in order — but what’s really plaguing them so far is their team defense; their rush defense, in particular. They are 27th in the league in goals against per game through nine, a shocking number that’s unacceptable from a veteran group.
Just this week, the Leafs played three games and gave up a whopping 13 goals. Let’s set aside the power play goals they allowed and focus on five-on-five. If we review each goal, we can see how many are off the rush:
- Jack Hughes off the cycle
- Brendan Dillon on a 4v1
- Jack Hughes streaking down the wing 1v1 vs Stolarz
- Mattias Samuelsson with a clean look six seconds into a clean zone entry
- Jiri Kulich on a 3v2 tic-tac-toe
- Tage Thompson on a 3v2
- Mattias Samuelsson off the cycle
- Tage Thompson on a cross-ice pass off the rush
- Bowen Byram on a point shot
Considering two of the 13 goals allowed were empty netters, this means over half of the goals the Leafs gave up this past week came off the rush. It’s a complete mess of breakdowns, and they’ve been constantly seamed for cross-ice plays. The defense is going to receive a lot of scrutiny, but this is more on the forwards. They aren’t tracking back with purpose, and often these goals stem from their turnovers.
The Dillon 4v1 was caused by a bad turnover courtesy of Steven Lorentz. The Hughes goal off the rush came after a Max Domi pass. The Thompson and Kulich 3v2s were a case of three forwards caught deep. The Thompson cross-ice pass was a miscommunication between Domi and Easton Cowan.
This has nothing to do with anything other than a lack of attention to detail and tracking back properly. It’s not a speed issue or an aging team getting skated out of the building; the Leafs were really good at defending off the rush last season, and losing Mitch Marner, Max Pacioretty, and Pontus Holmberg did not suddenly turn them into a slow team. On many of these sequences, the Leafs’ forwards were beaten by one pass; it has nothing to do with speed and everything to do with poor coverage, particularly a bad F3.
The coaching staff is clearly aware of the issue:
“The difference is that we were better at defending the odd-man rushes and things like that. I think we gave up two in the first period, and they capitalized on one of them. But we were above things all night.
It was a low-event game, but when you play teams like this, you have to make sure you aren’t giving up those freebies.”
– Craig Berube after the 4-3 OT win over the Sabres on Saturday
Berube’s whole game plan is predicated on mitigating mistakes and making it extremely difficult for opponents to score. So far, they are doing anything but. There have been too many freebies and elementary breakdowns as the team looks to either outscore their problems or ask their goalie to stand on his head.
The good news is that this should be easily correctable. The coach is already harping on it, and they showed some signs of improvement in their last two periods of play. Clean it up and get the power play rolling, and the Leafs will be more than fine. Reinforcements are on the way, too. But if they remain a freeway defensively, it will be a long season.
Notes
– With two games left in the month of October, the Leafs’ 5v4 power play has scored three goals while giving up two, for a grand total of +1 goal differential. Last season, Marc Savard was new to the team, so a grace period was expected, and they eventually started rolling. In the second half of last season, they owned one of the best power plays in the league. Now, the adjustment is the departure of Marner, who was a legitimately good power-play player (in the regular season). William Nylander has not scored on the power play yet, and Auston Matthews has just one point on the power play (the goal he scored this past week against Buffalo). Some of this will naturally correct, but both players also need to be more aggressive.
– Not only does Morgan Rielly have more power play shots on net than both John Tavares and Nylander, but so does Max Domi (!!!). Nylander’s shots-per-60 on the power play are right in line with his same rate as last season, except they need him to shoot more now without Marner, not the same amount.
Meanwhile, Matthews is currently shooting his lowest shot rate of his entire career. When you see his power-play goal against the Sabres (a no-doubter one-timer), you wonder why he’s not teeing that shot up at least twice per power play. Tavares also has the lowest shots rate on the power play of his career. His previous low was 11.51 in his rookie season as an 18-year-old. He’s at 8.67 right now.
Everyone looks like they are waiting for the perfect shot instead of letting it rip and then winning battles to get the puck back.
– Outside of the power play note, Tavares is off to a hell of a start to the season with 12 points in nine games.
– It doesn’t really feel like it, but Matthew Knies has 10 points in nine games, eight of which are assists. He tallied 29 assists last season and 20 the year before. He’s a crafty passer in tight around the net and started to show it when he became the net-front player last season on the power play.
The production is there for Knies; it’s the physicality and changing games with his size and strength that you want to see evolve as the season progresses. Knies is averaging a career-high 20:39 per game so far this season, but that feels a little too high for him.
– Matthews is averaging a career-high 22:20 per game, and that also feels too high for him. He’s not dangerous shift to shift right now, and the inflated ice time feels like a reason why.
– It’s hard to criticize the Leafs’ video review team because they have been so good over the years, but I am still not sure why they challenged the Hughes goal in the New Jersey game. It was borderline at best, but it made the game 1-1. It really wasn’t the time or place unless they had zero doubts. They lost the challenge, took the penalty, and the Devils scored on the subsequent power play. The Leafs never evened the score from there.
– Among the more pleasant surprises so far is Oliver Ekman-Larsson‘s seven points in nine games to begin the season. He has been legitimately dangerous in a few of their games so far, and he’s snapping the puck around crisply as the Leafs have tried to use him on the left side more often. OEL was on the left in Buffalo and promptly recorded two points (one on the PP). In the next game, he went back to the right with the offensive Rielly, and OEL didn’t produce anything nor record a shot on net. He was burned for what could have been a goal against, but it got called back for goaltender interference.
Quotes
“I don’t have much patience. I like results. Really, I have only changed one player most of the time. I work in pairs — you all know that — and I obviously changed the pairs up on this line and the next line, right? Mixing guys up a little bit isn’t a bad thing all of the time. I like working in pairs, but we need more consistency. That is what I am looking for.”
– Craig Berube on overhauling his lines
I give Berube some credit for shaking up his pairings. Not every coach would do it; instead, they’d stubbornly double down, come hell or high water. But now he has to run with the new look and give it some real time to gel together. He can’t change the lines every game and hope something sticks. Players need time to figure out where to go on the ice with their linemates and the little intricacies of each other’s games. He’ll need to show some patience.
He’ll also need some patience knowing the Leafs didn’t bring in any proven producers. Players such as Matias Maccelli and Dakota Joshua struggled last season and were cast off from their previous teams. Their games need to be rebuilt. We are starting to see positive signs from both — they each scored two goals this past week — but these aren’t finished products that Berube can simply plug and play without worry.
“The d zone is a little bit different… I came from more… I’m not going to get into details. I’d say it’s probably the biggest part, just the d-zone adjustment… Different role, try to play against the top lines over there, be reliable defensively. That’s always what I’ve liked. I can play in different situations. If my name gets called up to play in a more offensive situation, then I’ll be ready. If it’s the type of game I can help the team with, I’ll be ready to do that and try as much as I can.”
– Nic Roy on adjusting to Toronto from Vegas
This quote caught my eye from Nic Roy. Bruce Casiddy has traditionally run a layered zone defense. Last season, the Leafs played a lot of zone defense, too, packing the house and focusing on clearing the net/preventing grade-A chances while allowing possession on the outside. We can still see the elements of the Leafs’ zone defense — their wingers do not play particularly tight to the point — but the Leafs are asking their centers to be on the puck right now, and they often chase the play. Their in-zone defense, in general, is getting pulled out of position, and they aren’t focusing enough on clearing the net as they did last season.
It’s just very discombobulated so far, and it’s easy to see why Roy is still trying to figure it out.
“I thought tonight was a great game. Goals aside, I thought we played really hard back to back against a pretty good team. I thought we were the better team in both games. Nice to get a point tonight obviously, would’ve liked to get two there but three out of four on the weekend is pretty good.”
– Tage Thompson after the Leafs beat the Sabres in overtime
After a Leafs win, a lot of opponents are saying some version of, “We liked our game. The result wasn’t what we wanted, but we’re happy with how we played.” Even Andrew Brunette said the same after the Leafs beat the Predators. That’s because opposing teams regularly have the puck against the Leafs, and right now, the opposition is scoring a ton, too. You’d like to see some wins where the opponent leaves frustrated or tips their caps to the Leafs.
Tweets of the Week
Leafs Nick Robertson has scored 5 goals in his last 6 games following a healthy scratch pic.twitter.com/ByUqkOlFqA
— Sportsnet Stats (@SNstats) October 25, 2025
Nick Robertson has to get to a point where he doesn’t need to be scratched to score, but that was a nice response game for him in general. He provided a spark to the top line and didn’t look out of place beside Matthews by any means. Robertson can score and is talented enough to at least move the puck and make plays with other skilled players.
The Toronto Maple Leafs announced today that goaltender Joseph Woll is rejoining the team and will resume team activities and on-ice participation as part of the return-to-play process.
— Leafs PR (@LeafsPR) October 24, 2025
This is great news for the Leafs, as they’ve really missed Joseph Woll, even though it has only been nine games. Anthony Stolarz has played seven of the Leafs’ nine games; that’s too much for him, and it has shown. He hasn’t been as sharp, he’s visibly frustrated, and they didn’t even dress him in the second half of the last back-to-back so he could fully rest and reset.
Cayden Primeau has been a fine stopgap who has won both of his starts, but he’s not seriously challenging Stolarz for starts, whereas Woll will actively take starts from Stolarz and is capable of heating up and carrying the mail in his own right.
Because Woll was placed on LTIR, he is not eligible to return until November 1 at the earliest. Elliotte Friedman reported he has already skated with the team, so he is starting to ramp up. The guess is that he will receive a conditioning start with the Marlies, and they play Wednesday-Saturday-Sunday this week, followed by Wednesday-Friday-Saturday the week after. The second Saturday of November falls on November 8, and the Leafs are in Toronto until November 9, before heading to Boston for one game and coming home.
Team Goaltending – October 26 pic.twitter.com/cgDjhRggpu
— JFresh (@JFreshHockey) October 26, 2025
Related to the Woll absence: The Leafs’ goaltending, which was elite last season, has struggled on the whole so far. It’s early, Woll hasn’t played, and they have been leaky defensively. What should be their strengths have been roadblocks early on.
Five Things I Think I’d Do
1. There is no world where, if David Kampf played instead of Max Domi so far this season, he would have been outscored 8-1 at five-on-five as Domi has been so far. Domi also has only one point — a goal — in nine games. It’s even more confusing when we consider that Domi has taken more defensive-zone faceoffs than offensive-zone faceoffs.
How is this a logical, credible plan? Berube said he moved Domi to center because he needed a center after Scott Laughton‘s injury — fair enough — but if he needed someone to become a checking center, he already had an NHL option in Kampf available. Berube clearly doesn’t like Kampf and has basically banished him from the team, but this is poor usage that can’t be logically explained.
If Domi is going to center Lorentz and Jarnkrok, it might as well be Kampf there to make it a proper checking line. Laughton will be back any game now, so it largely doesn’t matter now, but the usage makes little sense.
2. I also think it’s pretty obvious that this team has no idea what to do with Max Domi. Last season, we could forgive it, as it was Berube’s first season with the team. Not anymore. It’s year two for Berube, and year three for Domi in Toronto overall.
$3.75M is too much to play on the fourth line, let alone play there and be a pure liability. When Domi isn’t on the ice at five-on-five, the Leafs are winning their minutes 20-14. They have to find a role that works, or they should attempt to move on altogether. They have too many other forwards in this middle ground, and Domi is making more than all of them while providing less than all of them.
3. I think Berube needs to make some decisions and stick with them at forward for a chunk of games. Players need time to gel. The Tavares line looks good. I have liked McMann with Matthews, and hopefully, Nylander will be back shortly. Joshua and Roy should remain a pair. They should have Laughton back soon, and he’ll be reunited with Lorentz.
This leaves two open spots for his choice of Robertson, Cowan, Jarnkrok, and Domi. I’m sure they won’t do it, but I’d be inclined to play Robertson on L3 and Cowan back with Laughton and Lorentz for the first game, if they are all healthy.
4. I think it was interesting to see the Leafs’ top players on defense mixed and matched due to injuries. I quite liked OEL-Carlo as a pairing, and Benoit-McCabe. I didn’t love McCabe-Carlo as much, but I’d be willing to give it another look, too. I get why — on paper anyway — they started the way they did, but I’m not sure it was properly optimized, and I’d like to see some mixing and matching.
The game in Buffalo was one of Carlo’s best for me, along with the opener. It also kept OEL on the left, which helped (OEL was victimized again on the right the next night, but the goal was disallowed). I’m not sure why there is so much reluctance to pair up Rielly and Tanev. If they’re going to use Rielly offensively, it makes more sense to pair him with Tanev, who moves the puck better than Carlo. It’s a good pairing to deploy with the Matthews line.
5. When we look at the trade this week — Lukas Reichel to Vancouver for a fourth-round pick — we can understand why Nick Robertson is still in Toronto.
Robertson has more of an NHL track record (33 goals in 164 NHL games vs. 22 in 178 for Reichel), but Reichel has the first-round-pick pedigree (which seems to matter); plus, he’s bigger and faster. It would be hard to argue that Robertson is worth much more than Reichel, and if I’m the Leafs, there’s no chance I’m trading the 24-year-old Robertson for a fourth-rounder. A fourth-rounder is useless to the Leafs, and it’s not something they can flip for help later on.
Robertson can at least score goals, and I didn’t mind his spot-duty look alongside Matthews and McMann against Buffalo. Again, even if Robertson doesn’t develop much beyond what he is right now — a player who can pot 15 and give the team a shot in the arm offensively at times — they actually need it right now. It’s definitely more valuable than a fourth-round pick.
