The rubber match to determine the winner of the Maple Leafs vs. Islanders season series takes place tonight in Elmont, New York (7:30 p.m. EST, Sportsnet Ontario).
The three meetings between these two teams, including back-to-back matchups this week, are playing out like a mini-playoff series given the timeframe, albeit the first game was unfair to judge due to the Leafs‘ scheduling situation, as they were playing tired vs. a rested Islanders team.
The Leafs‘ control over the five-on-five play has been second-best in both games (shot attempts are 116-92 for the Islanders at 5v5, and expected goals are 5.04-3.84), and their power play has not gotten the better of the Islanders’ league-worst PK, one empty-net goal aside. But the Leafs managed to grind out a 3-1 win in the second game of the season series on Tuesday; they cut down on chances against from the 6-3 loss before Christmas, received much better goaltending from Joseph Woll than in the first matchup, and capitalized on one more chance than the Islanders.
That sets the stage for a rubber match in New York tonight. With the Leafs having snapped the five-game losing streak versus the Islanders on Tuesday, they’re searching for their first win at UBS Arena since January 2022.
Game Day Quotes
Craig Berube on playing the Islanders for a third time in the span of a couple of weeks:
We have played them twice already, so we have a good idea of what they want to do and what they are [about].
It is going to be a hard game. That is a good team over there. They have played us well this year. Both games were pretty difficult.
We have to make sure we are checking hard tonight, doing a good job against their skilled guys, and managing the game properly.
Jake McCabe on the areas for improvement in the team’s recent stretch of .500 hockey:
Throughout the course of the year, it always comes down to getting the two points, but in the grand scheme of things, we haven’t been overly happy with our game in the last 10 games or the last few weeks, frankly. It has been inconsistent. We are looking for a good 60-minute effort to continue to build our game and get where we need to get to.
A lot of it comes down to how we defend. It sets up the rest of our game: how we check. A lot of times, our forecheck and checking through the neutral zone turns pucks over and creates offense for us. It’s about getting back to that and limiting the odd-man rushes that have been creeping into our game, too.
It starts with the defensive side of the puck. That’s doesn’t mean just defensive zone; it’s play without the puck.
Berube on Matthew Knies’ performance in Tuesday’s 3-1 win over the Isles:
Way more engaged in the game. He was shooting the puck, hounding the puck, and getting on it. He was more reckless, as we talked about. He was a much-improved player.
He is a guy who can really drive the play for us with his ability to get on pucks, skate, be physical, hang onto pucks down low in the offensive zone, and get to the net.
He is a big part of our team.
Matthew Knies on the strengths of his game on Tuesday:
I think I was just playing more directly and more simply. I was moving my legs more and creating space. I played a better game because of it.
Patrick Roy on his team’s performance in the loss to Toronto on Tuesday:
I thought we played a good game. To be a great game, we have to win, but we played a good game. We had a lot of chances. We didn’t give them much.
It was a hard-fought game. Both teams played well. We had our chances to score goals, and we didn’t. They scored two — three with the empty netter — and won.
It was the kind of road game you need to play, but bear down on your chances and get out with the win.
It was 12-10 chances for us. It was a game where there was not much for either side. In the second period, we had a couple of good looks, and their goalie made those saves.
Roy on his team’s inconsistency offensively and scoring just once in Tuesday’s loss to Toronto:
Sometimes, it doesn’t have to be pretty. The pretty ones will come with confidence. Right now, it is a matter of finding ways to score goals in different ways. I thought that was the biggest difference between the first time we played (Toronto) and the second time.
The good thing, and I’ll knock wood: Our PK was really good. We didn’t give up any scoring chances. We kept them on the outside. With the goalie we have, we should be fine.
Roy on his players’ comments that pulling the goalie for the defensive-zone faceoff late in the third period on Tuesday was another example of his desire to do whatever it takes to help his team win:
That’s all I am trying to do. I am here to help the players. That is what I said in the meeting.
In the past, coaches dictated a lot of things. Now, coaches are here to support the players, help the players, bring ideas, and try to help the guys generate more offense and play better defensively. We do everything we can do as a coaching staff to help this team.
There is one thing I promise everyone here: We will work really hard to make this team win and make our fans proud of our team.
Head-to-Head Stats: Maple Leafs (23-13-2) vs. Islanders (14-17-7)
In the 2024-25 regular season statistics, Toronto holds the advantage in four of five offensive categories and three out of five defensive categories.
Toronto Maple Leafs Projected Lines
Forwards
#67 Max Pacioretty — #91 John Tavares — #16 Mitch Marner
#23 Matthew Knies — #64 David Kampf — #88 William Nylander
#74 Bobby McMann — #11 Max Domi — #89 Nick Robertson
#18 Steven Lorentz — #24 Connor Dewar — #75 Ryan Reaves
Defensemen
#22 Jake McCabe — #8 Chris Tanev
#44 Morgan Rielly — #51 Philippe Myers
#2 Simon Benoit — #95 Oliver Ekman-Larsson
Goaltenders
Starter: #60 Joseph Woll
#35 Dennis Hildeby
Extras: Marshall Rifai, Conor Timmins
Illness: Pontus Holmberg
Injured (IR): Anthony Stolarz, Auston Matthews
Injured (LTIR): Calle Jarnkrok, Jani Hakanpää
New York Islanders Projected Lines
Forwards
#27 Anders Lee — #13 Mathew Barzal — #44 JG Pageau
#7 Maxim Tsyplakov — #29 Brock Nelson — #21 Kyle Palmieri
#53 Casey Cizikas — #14 Bo Horvat — #11 Anthony Duclair
#18 Pierre Engvall — #32 Kyle MacLean — #20 Hudson Fasching
Defensemen
#3 Adam Pelech — #6 Ryan Pulock
#28 Alexander Romanov — #8 Noah Dobson
#36 Isaiah George — #24 Scott Mayfield
Goaltenders
Starter: #30 Ilya Sorokin
#50 Marcus Hogberg
Injured: Mike Reilly, Semyon Varlamov, Simon Holmstrom
