Earlier today, we examined the Maple Leafs’ disappointing 2-4-1 March stretch and the adjustments needed ahead of the playoffs.
Now, let’s explore more specific points about players, lines, and the penalty kill in the Notes, Quotes, Tweets of the Week, and 5 Things I Think I’d Do.
Notes
– Digging around on NHL edge data and comparing some of Auston Matthews’ shooting statistics, he has recorded 51 shots inside the “house” (above the crease, below the hashmarks) this season out of 202 total, so roughly 25 percent. Last season, in his historic 69-goal campaign, over 30 percent of his shots came from that area. It’s the biggest drop in his shooting locations. His mid-range and one-timer side stats are essentially identical.
While he obviously has a great shot and is as elite of a sniper as it gets, at the end of the day, if you want to score goals, you have to drive the net. He’s doing it less this season. He’s healthy enough to average 21:47 per game so far in March, by far his highest of any month this season, so there’s no reason not to do more to get to the net and get his shots off as close to the net as possible.
– We know Bobby McMann is a streaky scorer — like most 20ish goal-scorers in the league — but he’s now gone 12 games and counting without a goal, a streak that started the last game before the 4 Nations break. Concerningly, he only has 10 shots on net in those 12 games, including going shotless in seven of them.
Stretch it out since February 1, and McMann has six points in 15 games, with just 17 shots on net. When a player struggles to produce, you always try to step back and ask, “Is he still getting chances?” Right now, McMann isn’t even getting those. In January, for reference, he played 12 games and put 37 shots on net. They are counting on him to be a top-six-level goal scorer, so it’s an important piece that’s really struggling right now.
– It is tough to shake a first impression, and Brandon Carlo had a really tough start in his first game, promptly going minus-two. Since then, though, he has really started to settle in and is up in 4-2 goals from that time onward.
Carlo’s reach is disruptive, and despite his size, he’s not awkward handling the puck. The team is controlling chances in his minutes so far (over 53 percent in expected goals). While he won’t be much of an offensive producer, I really liked his movement on Nylander’s goal against the Senators.
When Nylander had the puck in the corner, Carlo drove to the backdoor, soaking up attention from Ottawa defenders. Then, Nylander lopped around the net, and Carlo ran a bit of a subtle pick to give him extra room before pulling up high and presenting an option as a one-timer threat. That, too, drew interest from the Ottawa defenders, and while it’s a little thing, it just adds up to more space for Nylander, who eventually drove the net and scored.
Carlo actually picked up a secondary assist on the goal, and that movement was really good to see. He once scored a game-winner against the Leafs in the playoffs just last spring. He has some ability to chip in on that side of the ice.
– Conversely, Scott Laughton has experienced a really tough adjustment. There’s no real excuse for not getting the puck out on the penalty kill against Florida, and his best sequences have come on the wing so far. Before the acquisition, we flagged Flyers head coach John Tortorella preferring him on the wing, but it’s far too early to write him off.
This is a player who has spent his whole career in one place and was just traded for the first time. That adjustment takes time, and the team around him is not exactly making it any easier, either. He has historically been a really good penalty killer and a solid top-nine NHL contributor. It’s highly unlikely his play suddenly fell off a cliff for no reason at all.
Quotes
“They’re just throwing pucks at the net and turning chicken shit into chicken soup and just getting bounces. Maybe that’s something we can take from them and incorporate into our game because it seems to be working for them.”
– Anthony Stolarz on the Ottawa Senators
Anthony Stolarz knows this well because he just lived the Panthers doing it and has a ring to show for it.
“We feel our penalty kill was possibly the most important part of us winning last year. When we hit the playoffs, at the time, Tampa was maybe in the mid-30s. They just had an elite power play. The Rangers had an elite power play, and clearly, Edmonton had been at historic highs over that year. It was the key driver for us.”
– Paul Maurice on the Panthers’ deadline additions last season
The Leafs did the same to some degree by adding Scott Laughton and Brandon Carlo. It hasn’t paid immediate dividends, but these are proven penalty killers, and now Lane Lambert has to put together the pieces properly.
“I don’t know (why we’ve had success against the Maple Leafs). I think we just get fired up for these games, fired up playing in front of these fans. Just the rivalry between us, it’s pretty cool to play here.”
– Jake Sanderson after the Senators swept the Leafs in the regular-season series
The Leafs haven’t beaten the Senators since December 2023. While they only played them three times this year, they have officially been swept by them this season. It’s clear Ottawa gets up for these games, and the Leafs generally don’t match their intensity — they haven’t for years now — but on the flip side, what opponents do the Leafs get up for by comparison? It’s hard to point at any opponent and declare that this core really steps it up when they look at a specific jersey on the other side of the ice.
Tweets of the Week
this leafs team just hasn't been very good.
below break-even on expected goals which has never been the case in the Matthews era. private SportLogiq model undermines the assumption that there was some Berube magic going on. regression hitting hard pic.twitter.com/gM7sHe004Q
— JFresh (@JFreshHockey) March 16, 2025
Some of this analysis is really overblown due to injuries and all sorts of noise around that. The reality is that the Jake McCabe–Chris Tanev pairing is extremely important for this team, and anytime either has been out, the domino effect on their defense and overall team has been clear and significant.
And then there is Matthews, who has played 51 of 66 games. All things considered, those three players have played in just 36 games together. The team is 22-12-2 in those games, which is a .638 points percentage and would rank sixth this season. Right now, they have a .614 points percentage for the season, which is tied for 10th.
If we dig a little deeper into those numbers with all three in the lineup, the Leafs’ expected goals percentage is roughly 52, which places them around 10th in the NHL.
Now, it’s a problem that injuries to McCabe and Tanev have been so significant, but that aside, this is clearly a good team when they are healthy. That’s not to say they don’t have issues, but some of the rhetoric around them has gone too far.
The Maple Leafs "Core Four" have not produced sparkling numbers against current playoff-bound Eastern Conference opponents pic.twitter.com/tzxF2Bmx7c
— Sportsnet Stats (@SNstats) March 15, 2025
The team’s current 8-10 record against Eastern Conference playoff teams is tough to look at. They need to show more urgency about playing a winning brand of hockey against top teams.
"TAKING A PAGE OUT OF HIS DAD'S BOOK!" 🥊
DOMI FIGHTS SCHMIDT AFTER A HUGE HIT BY DOMI! (with @Bonsie1951 and @Jim_Ralph) pic.twitter.com/tO8xYASSI4
— Maple Leafs Hotstove (@LeafsNews) March 13, 2025
It’s only fair to point out when Max Domi plays well, too. The game against Florida was his best of the season, and he had a solid follow-up game against the Senators when playing up the lineup.
Domi really should embrace this pest/rat-like role. He’s a good fighter, pound for pound, and he can throw big hits. Domi plays better when games turn chippy and chirpy, but he can do more to stir it up consistently. He’s an effective player when he does.
Five Things I Think I’d Do
1. Unlike what Craig Berube appears to be doing with his lines on Monday night, I think I’d like to see the Leafs continue with this spread-out approach. I would just make one tweak: swapping Calle Jarnkrok and Bobby McMann. We’ve said this a million times, but McMann and William Nylander are good together and work well off each other because of the speed that they both play with. John Tavares and Mitch Marner both like to slow the game down, and it becomes a bit of an awkward fit with McMann on the other side. Jarnkrok will play at their speed, and he’s better defensively than McMann, which bodes well for Tavares’s line as a matchup unit. It’s an easy swap, but by and large, I thought the spread-out look was positive.
2. I think I’d keep their fourth line together for another game. I thought they had a good night against the Senators, and all three guys worked well off each other. David Kampf really struggled against Florida, and at some point, the coach needs to set some standards. As the high-priced veteran on the fourth line, it has to be directed at Kampf. Now, the younger and hungrier players will receive a bit of an extended look, but I’m sure Kampf will be back soon enough.
3. On defense, I think I would like to see Philippe Myers receive a look alongside Oliver Ekman-Larsson on the third pairing. It moves OEL back to the left and gives the Leafs three proper lefty-righty pairings. We’ve seen just under 100 minutes of Benoit – OEL together, and it just hasn’t been pretty so far, as they are getting just 43 percent of the shot attempts, 39 percent of the expected goals, and have been outscored 6-4.
Like almost every defenseman in the league, OEL is better on his strong side, and it doesn’t make much sense to me to willingly place him behind the eight-ball on the third pairing to accommodate Benoit in the lineup. For what purpose exactly? Benoit has struggled on the whole this season, including the penalty kill, and Myers also brings the same size/physicality package to the table. They aren’t exactly switching to a different player profile (just a right-handed one).
4. On the penalty kill, I think I’d stick with the Scott Laughton – Calle Jarnkrok duo for now. I think these are two solid penalty killers who will come around. I’d actually prefer them to start penalty kills on the faceoff and then put Matthews-Marner on after a clearance so they can attack in the neutral zone. If those two are going to penalty kill, I’d like to give them a chance to pressure through the neutral zone; any sort of turnover with them on the ice is a real scoring chance, but having them take the opening faceoff and coming off the ice after a clearance negates that opportunity.
I’m also not sure why they stopped using Steven Lorentz on the penalty kill; he was effective at it in doses, and I prefer him over Knies. A third unit of Lorentz with either Kampf or Holmberg (depending on who is in the lineup) should be able to hold their own towards the end of penalty kills.
5. I was surprised that Joseph Woll didn’t get the start on Saturday. He was really good against Utah, picking up the win to boot, while Anthony Stolarz was just fine against the Panthers afterward. I would have gone back to Woll vs. Ottawa, but I suppose Woll takes the Flames game now, they will split the back-to-back, and then we’ll see what happens on Saturday in Nashville.
