With two games remaining, the Maple Leafs are one point away from clinching first place in the Atlantic Division.
The regular-season division title is a goal we’ve discussed for years in this space, and it has always been met with mixed responses, from “Who cares, just win in the playoffs!” to “They won the Canadian division and blew it!” But the benefits are crystal clear.
Finish second, and the first-round matchup is against the reigning Stanley Cup Champions who have been to back-to-back finals, been a thorn in the Leafs’ side for years, and have been resting all players for a month to prepare for the playoffs.
Win the Atlantic, and the first-round matchup is against an inexperienced Senators team that shouldn’t be underestimated but doesn’t exactly possess the pedigree of the Panthers.
It’s potentially a huge swing, and it’s why the 82-game regular season matters.
Just over three weeks ago, the Leafs, Panthers, and Lightning were all on pace for 103 points. The Leafs were pegged at 34% to win the division at that point. Now, with a week to go, the Leafs are sitting with a 98% chance.
To the Leafs’ credit, they’ve done a really good job rolling through the 82-game schedule. It’s common to contrast their point totals with past Leafs seasons, but I’m not sure the comparison holds up this season. The Atlantic is simply much deeper. It has been a three to four-team division since Auston Matthews entered the league, but this season, assuming the Canadiens clinch, it’ll be the first time the division sends five teams to the playoffs. It’s a deeper group, including what was a competitive Bruins team until injuries and trades ripped their season apart.
Goaltending was a huge question mark heading into the season, as neither Leafs goalie started even 30 games in a single NHL season before this year. Both sustained injuries this season, but they balanced each other out, and the Leafs are second in the league in five-on-five save percentage.
While it was somewhat risky entering the season with two goalies without much of a proven track record as a starter, the inexperience was also partly overblown. Joseph Woll has clearly shown he has the talent to do the job. The best choice last summer was always to pair him with a veteran hedge, something we wrote about repeatedly entering free agency, and the Leafs ultimately picked the best option. Laurent Broissoit was the other intriguing name available, but he never played a game this season due to injury.
Two quality goalies significantly helped the Leafs’ cause this season, especially when they were tied for the most back-to-backs in the NHL. They went 10-4-2 in the second half of those games. That’s a really strong record and a testament not just to their goalie depth but their overall team depth. I often see fans build cap-compliant lineups with the bare minimum of 12 forwards and six defensemen, but the Leafs regularly cycled through extra bodies, scratched players, and kept their lineup relatively fresh. All-around depth is important.
Up front, the power play likely isn’t receiving enough love after a really slow start to the season. Since Christmas, the Leafs own the third-best power play in the league. Not coincidentally, they are third in the league in points percentage in that time, first amongst East teams, and one of only two East teams in the top eight in points percentage over a 45-game span.
Marc Savard rightfully took a lot of heat when the power play appeared to lack a coherent plan for months, but moving to five forwards has generally produced great results for the Leafs, and it has helped Matthew Knies emerge as well (he has 15 PP points after just two last season). Mitch Marner has been excellent on the point, adding a whole new dimension to the Leafs’ power play up top with his passing and ability to get shots through traffic. Marner has 33 points on the power play this season, which is in the top 10 league-wide.
The Leafs also worked diligently to add to their defense. Over the summer, they signed Chris Tanev and OEL. During the season, they acquired Brandon Carlo. The Leafs are just outside the top 10 in goals against per game (11th), and at five-on-five, they’ve allowed the fourth-fewest goals against this season. Their biggest issue defensively is the penalty kill, which ranks 28th since Christmas. Other than the usual storylines surrounding their stars’ ability to deliver in the playoffs, the penalty kill is the Leafs’ biggest area of concern.
The other concern of note is the Leafs’ control over the five-on-five play. They rank 29th in shot-attempt share this season, which is unfathomably low for a team of this quality. Their most recent win against Carolina is an example of what we have seen from the group far too regularly, as they were dominated for a period and otherwise fine. Against Tampa Bay a few games earlier, it was a similar story, except the ice was tilted against them in the second period instead of the first. There are too many stretches where they simply can’t break out cleanly and the ice is heavily slanted against them.
The Leafs have been better in this regard when all of Auston Matthews, Jake McCabe, and Chris Tanev have been in the lineup this season, which has happened less than half the schedule, to say nothing of Matthews playing a good chunk of those games less than 100%. There is reason to believe it won’t be as lopsided at playoff time. That said, it’s still an eye-popping statistic that can’t be dismissed altogether, nor can their five-on-five expected goal rank of 24th. They are better than those underlying numbers, but injuries and a tendency to go through the motions for full periods at times have led to these results.
With all of that said, the division is right there for the taking, setting up a Battle of Ontario and ensuring the playoff road in the Atlantic travels through Toronto. With two games and one week to go, the Leafs control their destiny with a chance to claim their first regular-season division title in a full NHL season since 2000.
Notes
– Quietly, Mitch Marner has a career-high seven-game winning goals this season following his overtime winner against the Canadiens. Oddly enough, he has a career low in shots per game going this season (2.19), and he’s tracking for his lowest goals per game rate in the past five seasons. He owns a good shot when he wants to use it (and has for years). He just has to shoot more.
– On the flip side, Auston Matthews is up to 44 assists, which is the third-highest total of his career, but given his injuries, it’s actually his highest-ever assist rate per game. Matthews is also winning a career-high 57 percent of his faceoffs. At times, his shot has appeared off, but he’s moving the puck as well as ever and is still able to dig in the faceoff circle. The Leafs as a team are second in the league in faceoff percentage.
– It may not seem like much, but against Carolina, Simon Benoit notched his 10th point of the season in game #76. Last season, he recorded five points in 64 games, with his lone goal coming on an empty-netter from the corner of the defensive zone.
While offense is not his role, nor will it ever be, I believe you need to contribute to the offense at a basic level to be an everyday NHLer, and we can see signs Benoit is pushing himself in this department. His assist against Carolina was a good example, as he aggressively attacked a loose puck rather than simply backing off the play and defending. When he picked it up with speed, he made a nice stickhandle to dodge a Jaccob Slavin (!) pokecheck and put it on a platter for Domi to set up Nylander.
Benoit has been putting in the work on the next step in his development. In March, he quietly produced five points in 15 games.
– Chris Tanev and Brandon Carlo are good examples of defensive defensemen who have enjoyed really good careers already. Tanev has 17 points this year after 19 the season prior. He has generally been around this range each season of his career. Carlo has 12 points this year after seasons of 14, 16, and 15. He let off a good one-timer leading to a goal against Carolina and had a dangerous point shot against Montreal the night before, nearly leading to a goal. Against the Leafs in the playoffs last spring, Carlo scored the game-winning goal in Game 1 and chipped in three goals in the Bruins’ playoff run.
These aren’t big point producers who will make a bunch of skilled plays with the puck, but they aren’t dead-ends with the puck, either.
– Ideally, heading into the playoffs, the team has everyone rolling and feeling good about their games. One Leaf who needs to get back on the scoresheet is Bobby McMann, who is pointless in his last nine games and has effectively been demoted to the third line in the process. You could argue it’s partly because he can drive the third line, but everything we have seen from this coaching staff suggests they will load up as much as possible. Right now, McMann is fighting it a bit offensively.
– The same can be said for Calle Jarnkrok and Scott Laughton, who are each pointless in their past six games. They both hit the bar against Carolina and have fared pretty well in checking roles, but the Leafs are banking on some depth production from them as well.
Quotes
“I thought the Laughton-Jarnkrok-Lorentz line really did a great job tonight of dictating how we need to play the game and being a hard line to play against. They did a good job and provided a lot of energy for us.
I knew I needed minutes out of these guys. I got the minutes out of them.”
– Craig Berube on his newly formed line against Carolina
Scott Laughton played 15:57 against Carolina, his highest time on ice in a game as a Leaf. Calle Jarnkrok played 16:03, his highest time on ice total in a game this season. Last week on the MLHS podcast, we discussed this specific line combination as a possible playoff depth line. Berube started them in periods, and they were the only Leafs creating anything in the first period up until the final few minutes.
They have a clear role as a checking line capable of taking defensive-zone faceoffs (they had the lowest offensive-zone faceoff percentage of any Leafs line in the Carolina game). It’s a unit to keep an eye on.
“I know people want to see another Canadian team in the playoffs, but we don’t care about another Canadian team in the playoffs. We care about our team, and that’s it…. It’s our job to not let that happen.”
– Steven Lorentz ahead of the Leafs’ win over the Canadiens
We’ve talked about a few of these moments, but this was a particularly good one. The shorthanded Leafs dug in and pulled out a win to ensure the Habs don’t clinch a playoff spot in their arena. The Habs should make the playoffs anyway, but it won’t be happening in Toronto.
“You know that was my favorite moment of last year, right? Actually, I addressed the players at the end of the year and I told them. I said, for me, it was more of a statement, because we had so many Leafs fans in our building, it was more of a statement to our Leafs fans than an actual statement to the other team. … It’s a great rivalry and that’s the beauty of the game, right? Playing the game, building these rivalries and making our city proud.”
– Senators owner Michael Andlauer on Ridley Greig’s empty-net slapshot against the Leafs
Noted. Also of note, the Leafs still haven’t beaten the Senators since that incident.
Tweets of the Week
Top goalies over their last 20 games played https://t.co/RtBkDPbkvW pic.twitter.com/dphTtEsJCb
— MoneyPuck.com (@MoneyPuckdotcom) April 10, 2025
Anthony Stolarz has been excellent down the stretch, and this tweet was posted before his shutout against Montreal, which further padded his stats. Joseph Woll has also played some really good games since the Four Nations, including his most recent outing against Carolina and the Florida game earlier in the week when he was the only reason the Leafs even had a chance to come back in the game. He also played an A+ game against Colorado a few weeks ago. Woll has also produced a few weak starts around those games, namely against San Jose. It’s hard to ignore the recent body of work from Stolarz heading into the playoffs.
Morgan Rielly factored on three of four Toronto goals and helped the @MapleLeafs post their third 50-win season in franchise history.#NHLStats: https://t.co/uODuM4D1xl pic.twitter.com/pye2gwdMnw
— NHL Public Relations (@NHLPR) April 14, 2025
After a week when Morgan Rielly struggled against the Panthers (just like the entire team), followed by finishing fifth amongst Leafs defensemen against the Lightning the next night (he still played over 20 minutes), he responded with a really good weekend. He played almost 26 minutes against the Habs and was active on breakouts, moved the puck well, and got involved offensively, including just missing a downhill chance in the third period.
Against Carolina, he kept it going. I really liked his involvement in the first goal, in particular. He joined the rush on the backside after an initial breakout in which he skated by a forechecker with the puck. It gave the Leafs a 3v3 on the rush, and after Robertson shot it, Rielly won the race to the rebound, controlled the puck, and set up Carlo for a one-timer. He then recovered the rebound and put a puck to the net, which bounced right to Holmberg for a goal. He was involved off the rush and then as a rover in the offensive zone, directly leading to a goal.
When Rielly moves his feet and activates, he’s a difference-maker for the Leafs. Whether he’s skating or not is really the key to his whole game.
Matthew Knies
First member of the Maple Leafs to complete a Hat Trick in Overtime since Mats Sundin scored his 500th goal on
Oct 14, 2006 vs the Flames pic.twitter.com/Z1px9XrGtl— Sportsnet Stats (@SNstats) April 10, 2025
The Leafs were horrible against the Panthers, headlined by their top line getting completely outplayed and setting a poor tone for the night. Matthew Knies called it out after the game, then responded with a monster performance the next night in Tampa to help re-establish a cushion for the division lead. It was an incredible performance that helped highlight how far Knies has come since his rookie season in 2023-24.
Last season, when the Leafs played the Avalanche, Sheldon Keefe referred to Colorado’s top unit as something above and beyond the NHL. In the game, Knies really struggled against Cale Makar down his wall, and the Leafs eventually shifted Nylander to play with Matthews and Marner. There were a few additional instances against top talent where Knies struggled and was shifted down the lineup.
Not this year. Knies has been in top matchups all season and has excelled. This has been a significant development for the Leafs, adding another game-changer to their mix.
Five Things I Think I’d Do
1. I think Nick Robertson has played his way into starting in the playoff lineup for me. Besides providing credible depth scoring (he’s seventh among all Leafs in goals this season), I think he has quietly done a really good job of driving play lately. His line generated some extended offensive-zone shifts against both Carolina and Montreal, and he was largely at the center of it, winning races to pucks, getting pucks on net, and even cycling. He delivered two big hits this week as well on Gage Goncalves and Alex Carrier.
Robertson can struggle on the wall and defensively at times, but he brings elements down the lineup that the Leafs don’t have in spades in the bottom six. Unless he becomes a liability on the other end of the ice, I don’t think the Leafs have 12 forwards better than him.
2. I think the Leafs should eventually settle into these middle-six combinations. The best the second line has looked is still with Bobby McMann. He’s a legitimate goal scorer who complements Tavares and Nylander well with his skating, ability to get pucks out of the defensive zone, and forechecking. Perhaps if Max Pacioretty returns, they can justify Pacioretty on the second line while bumping McMann down, but otherwise, McMann’s power game really helps the second line.
3. I would like to see the Nick Robertson–Max Domi–Calle Jarnkrok line from last season reunited for a look. I’m not entirely sure why we’ve seemingly accepted Robertson as a right-winger. It’s harder to play the off-wing, and some of his best goals this season have come streaking down the left side (goals against Jeremy Swayman and Andrei Vasilevskiy come to mind). It’s not like he makes teams pay offensively on his off wing.
Robertson would be better served on his proper side, which would also mean the Leafs’ top three lines are all aligned with their correct handedness, leaving them a three-lefty line of Lorentz-Laughton-Holmberg that has been pretty good in a defensive role.
4. I think the defense is set once it’s healthy, and nothing has really changed with the situation. The final few games are about managing minutes, and if they can get Philippe Myers and Dakota Mermis a bunch of reps – assuming they can wrap up the Atlantic – it would be gravy. The game in Carolina was a nice debut for Mermis, who has navigated an unlucky season (including a broken jaw and a couple of waiver claims). He’s definitely in the mix if the Leafs run into injuries on the blue line.
5. I think it’s pretty clear that Anthony Stolarz will be the Game 1 starter. A lot can change in a playoff series, and Joseph Woll has come in mid-series the last two seasons and performed admirably, so I wouldn’t count him out. However, Stolarz has been really good after he settled back in following his injury and has earned the Game 1 nod.
