The Maple Leafs entered this game 8-1-1 in their past 10, so you can excuse a loss.
The issue is how they lost. They were outshot 37-18 and out-attempted 63-31. This wasn’t even close to a fully healthy Panthers team, either.
The top line was a complete no-show, but as usual, they stayed together all night and all played their usual minutes, accountability be damned. You can pick out other players — and essentially nobody played well — but this has to start at the top. You aren’t going to win despite your top players against elite teams.
We’ll see how they respond tomorrow.
Your game in 10:
1. The game immediately started with a tone-setting turnover by Joseph Woll. After the Panthers put the puck in deep off the opening draw, Woll stopped it behind the net and put it right on Aleksander Barkov’s tape, who immediately centered it to Sam Reinhart for a good shot in the slot.
The Leafs‘ first good shift came a few minutes into the game courtesy of the fourth line, who recovered a shot off the rush, cycled, and hemmed in the Panthers for a shift. The top line promptly turned it right back and were hemmed in after Mitch Marner made a poor pass on the breakout that put Oliver Ekman-Larsson in a tough spot with nobody to pass since all of the forwards blew the zone (a sign of things to come in the period).
The Leafs‘ second line generated a response shift as Morgan Rielly and William Nylander executed a nice give-and-go off the wall before Rielly took a shot with Bobby McMann driving the net. The Leafs‘ best chance of the period came shortly afterward when Auston Matthews set up Matthew Knies for a one-timer shot just outside the slot.
The first 10 minutes had a second back-and-forth with each team generating zone time, with a slight edge in the Panthers’ favour, until the Panthers scored.
2. Halfway through the period, Florida took the 1-0 lead.
The Leafs rightfully use John Tavares for a ton of defensive-zone faceoffs — he is one of the best faceoff men in the league — but on this faceoff, he got completely rinsed by Anton Lundell. Rewatching the faceoff, Tavares appeared confused by how Lundell was engaging with him (which was not at all), and he barely moved his stick as Lundell quickly won it back. Tavares essentially froze, and it went right on Gustav Forsling’s tape at the top of the offensive zone.
With a second to skate into it, Forsling took a simple wrist shot. It was a good shot that went off the post and in, but a wrist shot from the top of the zone with no screen needs to be saved. Forsling is a really good player — that was his 11th goal of the season, so he can shoot, and he scored last week against the Leafs as well — but you expect a save from Woll there.
3. The rest of the first period was an absolute mess. The Leafs couldn’t break out cleanly at all. Defensemen had nobody to pass the puck to, and when they did put it up the wall, the Leafs’ wingers almost never won a battle to get it out cleanly. At best, it was a survival chip out to center ice where Florida would reload and shove it right back down the Leafs’ throat.
The Panthers created several scoring chances to double their lead in the first but couldn’t find the finishing touch. They ended the period with 27 shot attempts and fired 11 shots in a row at one point until Calle Jarnkrok put one on net off the rush with about 10 seconds left in the period. They spent more than 11 minutes of the period in the Leafs’ zone.
The opening frame was a classic example of the top line taking a period (or more) off. They were out-attempted 6-1 in the 20 minutes and were hemmed in repeatedly. The second unit was the only line with more than a few good sequences in the period. The Leafs are paying their top players huge money and are playing them together, and while the team was getting speedbagged, they did nothing to break it. If anything, they were the team’s worst line in the opening period.
4. After a horrendous final 10 minutes to end the first, the Leafs came out much better to start the second (perhaps some pride kicked in). On the first shift of the period, Marner broke in with some space and ripped a slapshot by Bobrovsky but off the post. I can’t recall many slapshots from Marner, but he fooled Bobrosvky badly.
On the next shift, the Leafs hit the bar again, but this time, it went in. Tavares picked up a free puck at center and caught Nate Schmidt flat-footed, skated in with speed, went inside-outside, and curled a shot that deflected off Schmidt’s stick and fooled Bobrovsky, going off the bar and in.
It goes down as an unassisted goal, and it’s Tavares’ 37th of the season, officially his second-highest scoring season as a Leaf.
Tavares 37th of the Season vs Panthers courtesy of @Bonsie1951 and @Jim_Ralph pic.twitter.com/VU28M10XoB
— Maple Leafs Hotstove (@LeafsNews) April 9, 2025
5. One of the only bright spots for the Leafs in this game was their penalty kill. The Panthers only went to one power play, but the Leafs did a really good job of killing it off. The Matthews-Marner unit put together a strong shorthanded shift, followed by a Scott Laughton–Matthew Knies duo that should have some potential to remain a duo moving forward. Simon Benoit was really good on the left as a killer, as the Leafs leaned on him heavily in McCabe’s absence.
After the kill, Toronto went to a power play of their own and created one really good look, but Tavares was stoned on the backside with some time and space. When the second unit came on, Domi and Robertson made an incredibly bad exchange through the neutral zone, leading to a Brad Marchand breakaway that Woll turned aside, followed by a stop on Anton Lundell on the rebound.
The Leafs finally held Florida scoreless on the power play, but when they got their own opportunity, they gave up the best scoring chances.
6. The second period was the Leafs’ best at five-on-five in this game. The attempts were still 18-12 in favour of the Panthers, but the Leafs generated some extended stretches in the Panthers’ end, maintained some zone time, and managed to break a few Panthers cycles. That said, the bar is incredibly low if we’re celebrating a period in which the Panthers recorded 14 shots on net.
7. The Leafs got off to a good start in the second period but went back to sloppy, disjointed play to start the third. Their top line was immediately hemmed in and tilted for their shift, and on the next shift, the Panthers scored.
While controlling play in the offensive zone, the Panthers went d-to-d at the top of the blue line. They rimmed it in deep, where Morgan Rielly went back and attempted to rim it back up the wall. It bounced off his stick and right to the slot, where Eetu Luostarinen caught Woll and Carlo off guard and batted it in.
It’s a bad play by Rielly — and he’s going to get some heat for it, rightfully so — but this whole sequence started the shift before when Berube sent out his top line to start the third period of a 1-1 game. They not only did nothing, but they were dominated, just as they were the entire game.
8. After going down 2-1, the Leafs went to a power play with a chance to tie it, a good test for their top unit against a really good PK on the road in a big moment.
They created one good look set up to Tavares in the slot, but he double-clutched it instead of shooting. They had another where the puck deflected wide off Knies. That was about it. When the power play was over, they technically didn’t record a shot on net. Sure, they created some looks and moved it around okay, but zero recorded shots are zero recorded shots.
After the power play, Berube tried shifting the lines around a bit, moving Laughton up with Tavares and Nylander, reuniting the McMann – Domi – Robertson line, and sliding Jarnkrok down to L4. It lasted a cycle, and then Berube returned to the original lines. As usual, the top line remained untouched, even though they accomplished just about nothing all night. The Leafs fell behind immediately to start the third and still recorded four shots on net in the final frame.
9. The top line’s best chance of the night came off a Marner forecheck on Seth Jones, which created a turnover that he centered to Matthews all alone in the slot. Matthews took a one-timer shot while skating away from the net instead of stopping up and getting everything on it. The rebound popped out to Knies, who also one-timed and was denied by Bobrovsky. Those were the Leafs’ two best chances to tie the game.
Toronto eventually pulled the goalie, but they couldn’t generate much. When they moved through the neutral zone, Matthews picked up the puck on the wall with some speed and a defender in front of him. Instead of chipping it in deep and going to forecheck it, he tried an inexplicable drop pass that resulted in an immediate turnover. It eventually led to the Panthers’ empty-netter.
The play is not why the Leafs lost by any means, but it summed up Matthews’ night. He has to get the puck in deep and forecheck in that situation. This is still one of the best defensive teams in the league; they are checking diligently to protect a lead, and Matthews is attempting a neutral-zone drop pass.
10. Let’s expand further. The top line was out-attempted 9-17 in this game. Head to head against Alex Barkov, Matthews was 4-13. It’s the same story all the time; if the big guns are going to play like this in big matchups, there’s not much else to discuss. They need to be split up if they play like this, or they must be awesome to make it worth it. Calling this a one-off because of last week’s win over Florida isn’t accurate. Sasha Barkov wasn’t even playing in the last game.
The Leafs were out-attempted 63-31 at five-on-five tonight, and the top line has to wear it. They are supposed to set the tone and lead the way, but they didn’t come remotely close tonight. Both Matthews and Marner played over 21 minutes, nonetheless.
The team also won 12 of 42 faceoffs in this game, the lowest faceoff percentage they’ve posted in a game this season. Nylander didn’t record a shot on net and didn’t even play 16 minutes; I can’t honestly suggest he deserved much more.
Woll was excellent in this game and the only reason it was as close as it was. Kudos to him for being one of the few Leafs to show up. I can’t honestly suggest a single other player definitively did.
This Leafs loss adds a lot of weight to the game tomorrow night against the Lightning while also re-establishing third place for the Panthers in the Atlantic. The clear goal/focus should be on winning the Atlantic and drawing Ottawa in round one.
Game Flow: 5v5 Shot Attempts
Heat Map: 5v5 Shot Attempts
