Ahead of Nick Robertson’s arbitration case with the Maple Leafs scheduled for August 3, both the player and team have officially filed their salary numbers.

At first blush, the numbers submitted and where the final contract will likely settle — that is, somewhere in the middle ($1.75 million-ish) — are entirely reasonable all-around.

UPDATE: A contract has been reached at $1.825 million AAV as of Saturday at 11 a.m. EST.

While Robertson has struggled to stick in the playoff lineup, the facts are that he’s still just 23 years old, he’s played 156 games in the league, and he’s shown he can put the puck in the net. Over the past two seasons, he has scored 29 goals in 125 games. That will usually earn a player a respectable payday in NHL arbitration, even if he couldn’t crack the playoff lineup.

That might sound slightly counterintuitive, especially when Pontus Holmberg — who was in the team’s playoff lineup — signed for $1.55 million on the open market as a UFA. But Robertson is two years younger and nearly matched Holmberg’s career goal total (19) this season alone (15).

If this makes it to Sunday’s arbitration hearing, the Leafs will be unable to walk away from the ruling. Per PuckPedia, the team can walk away from player-elected arbitration if the award is $4.85 million. If they walk away, the player becomes a UFA. Clearly, the award will not be high enough for this to be a consideration.

Ideally, it doesn’t even reach arbitration; players and teams can settle their arbitration case up until the hearing begins. Once in the hearing, teams will rightfully have to make their case as to why the salary should be so low, and in the process, they tend to tear apart the player. It can lead to awkward and strained relationships, and most players who come out of it on the other side are pretty vocal about never wanting to do it again. Robertson reportedly inquired about a trade out of Toronto last offseason — to which Brad Treliving publicly re-emphasized that the organization still values the player — and while that won’t factor into the arbitration hearing, it probably only further underscores the preference of avoiding the process altogether.

Considering their numbers are roughly $1 million apart, reaching a resolution before arbitration shouldn’t be too hard.

Earlier this summer, an arbitration-eligible Jonatan Berggren signed a one-year, $1.825 million contract with the Detroit Red Wings. Berggren is a year older than Robertson and produced at a lower rate — Berggren has two more points in two fewer games over their respective careers so far — but all things considered, it’s a reasonable comparable (update: and it turned out to be the exact same deal for Robertson).

Beyond the salary figure, if it reaches arbitration, the club will also select if the contract is for one year or two, given that the player elected for arbitration. Anything around the midpoint or below should be an easy decision for the Leafs to elect for two years. If it’s closer to $2 million or more, a one-year deal likely makes more sense as Robertson still very much has to prove himself.

It’s possible that the Leafs will sign Robertson to a contract they feel they can most easily trade, as they did with Timothy Liljegren just last summer (one year, $1.75 million-ish). But there is a case for keeping him as well. Robertson was seventh on the team in goals last season while playing limited minutes, and as we all know, the Leafs lost a lot of offense when Mitch Marner departed this summer. If nothing else, Robertson has demonstrated he can put the puck in the net, and quality depth scoring is always useful.

Robertson is the Leafs‘ second-youngest forward (Matthew Knies is the youngest), unless an Easton Cowan makes the team. There are warts to his game, but I don’t think the organization is in a place where it can simply punt away reasonably productive young players — especially ones that can legitimately help them in the regular season.

When Robertson is signed, where he fits in the lineup — assuming he even earns a spot — is also fair to ponder. Signing Robertson would put the Leafs over the roster limit, assuming new signing Michael Pezzetta makes the team. The Leafs haven’t offloaded popular trade candidates like David Kampf or Calle Jarnkrok (yet). This roster assumption also includes carrying only one extra defenseman, which is the minimum of what they’ll want to do.

Robertson has officially been locked into a deal, and now something has to give.

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